They can't. If Biden bows out, they are stuck with Harris. Not legally, but how can they drop her. The optics of doing that would be horrible.
All rules would be the off the table, but let’s be honest, Harris may be disliked, but she is still a competent and intelligent woman and not a lunatic like Trump. There’s no enthusiasm for Harris because there doesn’t need to be, just like there wasn’t much enthusiasm for Biden in 2008 or Pence or Tim Kaine.
However, if Harris suddenly found herself as the nominee for whatever reason, the enthusiasm would materialize. This same argument played out with Biden in 2020, but the enthusiasm materialized.
Republicans have an ace up their sleeve - Condemning Donald Trump and moving the party on from him by selecting a different nominee who isn’t insane. We are a forgiving folk and the relief of seeing the party regain its values would probably see them have a surge in popularity. Will they use it? Probably not. Because there’s no guarantee a different nominee would condem Trump/Trumpism. Only Christie and Hutchinson have done that. If it’s Nikki Haley or Tim Scott trying to move on but also protecting Trump, then they may have a chance, but that’s still clinging onto Trumpism and it won’t be good for them.
But back to Harris, I don’t think the situation is as dire as it sounds, even if she were the nominee. The republicans have to do too much work on themselves and I’ve seen very little such work being done.
But there’s no rule that says it has to be Harris anyways.
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I don’t share the same concerns folks have with Biden, at least not the same degree. This is the new normal with more people engaged in politics and the 24 hour news cycle that’s everywhere you look. Most of the nagging concerns I have go away immediately if Trump is the nominee - he cannot win a general, and I’d almost believe that even if some milquetoast democrat got shoehorned into the nomination for whatever reason. So do I want Harris right now? No, I’d prefer Biden. Did I want Biden in 2020? Not necessarily, but he’s proven me wrong.
So the polls are good for making folks worry, and you can glean a lot about the minds of voters from them, but people like to win, especially if they have a reason. What’s going to happen when Trump loses the nomination and tells his supporters not to vote in a rigged election? Or wins the nomination and then just loses again because he’s an insane criminal?
The republicans are so disjointed right now that it’s hard for me to envision them making it to Election Day 2024 without a crisis.