2024 Democrat Presidential Candidates

Herdfan said:
Pretty good article laying out what Biden is facing:

www.politico.com

Joe Biden Has A Dean Phillips-Rashida Tlaib Problem

The president is being challenged from his right and his left, as fissures deepen in the Democratic coalition.
www.politico.com www.politico.com
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Tlaib and the Muslims who say they won't support Biden because of his support for Israel are naive if they think they'll get something "better" with Trump or another Republican in power.
 
I'd wait until at least mid-summer of next year before doing any hand wringing or hair pulling. Way too early and the polls are going to be a hindsight issue, because we are in uncharted political territory.

Trump has a base who are unmoving. I doubt he's picked up new voters. People may or may not be enthusiastic about Biden, but there's no way Trump wants to keep playing the "age and gaffe" card with him, and outside of the age issue, he's miles ahead of Trump and people are going to vote for him even if they may be currently shopping elsewhere or keeping their options open.

There is no comparison, and Biden has a record. So does Trump. The voters will decide, and we'll see how republicans handle the results this time around if they lose.

That's all assuming Trump is the nominee, and he likely will be, but also may not be.
 
GermanSuplex said:
I'd wait until at least mid-summer of next year before doing any hand wringing or hair pulling. Way too early and the polls are going to be a hindsight issue, because we are in uncharted political territory.

Trump has a base who are unmoving. I doubt he's picked up new voters. People may or may not be enthusiastic about Biden, but there's no way Trump wants to keep playing the "age and gaffe" card with him, and outside of the age issue, he's miles ahead of Trump and people are going to vote for him even if they may be currently shopping elsewhere or keeping their options open.

There is no comparison, and Biden has a record. So does Trump. The voters will decide, and we'll see how republicans handle the results this time around if they lose.

That's all assuming Trump is the nominee, and he likely will be, but also may not be.
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I wish I were as optimistic as you. By the time mid-summer 2024 rolls around (and it will happen quickly), I fear it will be too late. It's going to be a close election no matter who runs, since there aren't many voters whose positions are still changeable. Biden has a much better record than many are willing to concede, but I don't think that'll make as much difference as it should. As I see it, the situation is so dire, especially if Trump runs, there's no room for error.

I was watching Andy Beshear give his acceptance speech last night. I don't agree with all his positions, but he strikes me as a Democrat who could garner a lot of support from Republican voters.
 
Roller said:
I wish I were as optimistic as you. By the time mid-summer 2024 rolls around (and it will happen quickly), I fear it will be too late. It's going to be a close election no matter who runs, since there aren't many voters whose positions are still changeable. Biden has a much better record than many are willing to concede, but I don't think that'll make as much difference as it should. As I see it, the situation is so dire, especially if Trump runs, there's no room for error.

I was watching Andy Beshear give his acceptance speech last night. I don't agree with all his positions, but he strikes me as a Democrat who could garner a lot of support from Republican voters.
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Trump has jumped the shark and he drives negative turnout for himself. I listened to former GOP Rep David Jolly and he was making some great points about early polls. The only thing Biden is losing is polls, and I think people are dissatisfied in general with national politics. Biden is winning on a lot of fronts - including elections - and I don’t see that changing at all if Trump is the nominee. Trump is 0-2 on the popular vote and I don’t see him doing better this time around, even in swing states.

Obama had pretty lousy numbers around this time and actually lost a lot of seats during his tenure, yet won re-election pretty soundly when the polls had it closer.

People can be unhappy with Biden but still find him more agreeable than a lunatic.

I just can’t see America or even certain swing states moving back to Trump when both men have a record, and Trump is worse than ever and getting worse by the day. The criminal trials haven’t even really started in earnest yet.
 
GermanSuplex said:
Obama had pretty lousy numbers around this time and actually lost a lot of seats during his tenure, yet won re-election pretty soundly when the polls had it closer.
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The hurricane was a pretty big player in that election, as well as the "binders full of women" and the famous "please continue, Mr. Romney." There really are no comparisons. Individual-ONE had an approval rating very similar to what Joe the President has now and worked hard to drive it downward yet still managed to lose the popular vote by only 4.4 percentage points.
 
Kennedy won’t win anything and he’s a shaky mess who at best is just going to end up pissing off the one side who loses the election and fading into obscurity with the other.

I put my money on Biden even with Kennedy running as an independent. Kennedy will split the crazy vote or pick up the uninformed voter who sees the name “Kennedy”, or the morons who think they’re true independents because they “don’t like any of them”.

Kennedy will also be 71 if he were to assume office, so anyone on the “younger and brighter” train will have to keep looking, as he’s neither.
 
Herdfan said:
He is bound to make it interesting.
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He will not draw voters off of Biden. The not-RW is just not going to be drawn to Junior. It would be like Perot all over again. And generally speaking, states award the electoral slate to the candidate with the highest total vote count: the winner needs a plurality, not a majority (though there may have been some changes since then).
 
Herdfan said:
I say it and I get blasted, so go ahead and blast Nate Silver because now he is saying it:

www.natesilver.net

If Biden can't run a normal campaign, he should step aside

Democrats are taking a huge risk either way. But they shouldn't try to get away with a Rose Garden campaign.
www.natesilver.net www.natesilver.net
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Not sure about what Nate defines as a "normal campaign" and I'm not interested enough in him to read his opinions anymore, but I agree that Biden should step aside. He (and Trump is no exception) is just too old and can't appeal to the general non-partisan public.

He stands a real chance of losing to Trump, and that guy is as toxic as they come. I mean we could have our first president serving from a prison cell and he's ahead in the polls, just WTF?

IMO Biden should gracefully step aside, let the chips fall where they may and not go into any endorsements until the dust settles.
 
Biden didn't run a "normal campaign" in 2020, and that was part of the appeal to me. I don't need to see unmasked stadium rallies during a pandemic, so while the right was laughing at Biden 'campaigning from his basement", I would watch him giving speeches to small crowds in warehouses and factories or outdoor venues, and that was refreshing. That was leadership.

If democrats want someone else, they should either get moving or start supporting Biden for 2024 and think ahead to 2028. I will be the first to tell you, Biden was low on my list and his campaign absolutely was flailing before James Clyburn's endorsement. But he keeps getting things done and acting like a normal senior adult is great, as sad as it is to have to even say that.

Polls are tricky. You have to be aware of them, follow them, pay attention, look for trends... they're fun to dissect. But the margins of error on even the best polls mean you're only getting a snapshot and not the full picture of the electorate. That only happens on election day.
 
Eric said:
Not sure about what Nate defines as a "normal campaign" and I'm not interested enough in him to read his opinions anymore, but I agree that Biden should step aside. He (and Trump is no exception) is just too old and can't appeal to the general non-partisan public.

He stands a real chance of losing to Trump, and that guy is as toxic as they come. I mean we could have our first president serving from a prison cell and he's ahead in the polls, just WTF?

IMO Biden should gracefully step aside, let the chips fall where they may and not go into any endorsements until the dust settles.
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I think Joe Biden is a good man who was right for the times in 2020, but not for now. However, he isn't going to step aside, gracefully or otherwise, unless one of the following happens:

1) He has a medical or other significant event.
2) Members of his own party convince him not to run.

The first isn't under anyone's control. As for the second, a group of high level, influential Democrats would have to visit him behind the scenes. Unfortunately, they wouldn't have much leverage, and doing it in the open wouldn't go well. I tend to believe Biden would win against Trump, but there are too many variables — third party runs (RFK, Jr., Manchin), the electorate's view of the economy, and so on — on which to stake the country's future as a democracy.
 
Roller said:
1) He has a medical or other significant event.
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And assuming he wins, hopefully he doesn't have a medical event, say a McConnell Moment (or worse) during the next four years that follow, with his VP needing to step in. I'd like to see him, and the Democrats, get ahead of these very real possibilities and move forward.

Also... optics drive many voters. The opening of the first general election debate with DeSantis (or whoever) marching out in big steps from stage right confidently and looking like a million bucks to the center of the stage to shake hands with Biden, taking small/slow/fidgety/measured/cautious steps from stage left, will speak volumes.
 
Eric said:
Not sure about what Nate defines as a "normal campaign" and I'm not interested enough in him to read his opinions anymore, but I agree that Biden should step aside. He (and Trump is no exception) is just too old and can't appeal to the general non-partisan public.

He stands a real chance of losing to Trump, and that guy is as toxic as they come. I mean we could have our first president serving from a prison cell and he's ahead in the polls, just WTF?

IMO Biden should gracefully step aside, let the chips fall where they may and not go into any endorsements until the dust settles.
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A recent theory I heard is that one of the reasons Biden won’t step aside is because he knows Harris is unpopular and will most likely lose as the candidate and the Democrat establishment is deeply entrenched in meritocracy and the diversity culture war. So according to them she should get the nomination by default because she earned it based on her resume and nobody should challenge a woman of color.
 
Citysnaps said:
And assuming he wins, hopefully he doesn't have a medical event, say a McConnell Moment (or worse) during the next four years that follow, with his VP needing to step in. I'd like to see him, and the Democrats, get ahead of these very real possibilities and move forward.

Also... optics drive many voters. The opening of the first general election debate with DeSantis (or whoever) marching out in big steps from stage right confidently and looking like a million bucks to the center of the stage to shake hands with Biden, taking small/slow/fidgety/measured/cautious steps from stage left, will speak volumes.
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Well, if it's Trump, he'll look like a tangerine that's been left out too long: orange and wrinkled.
 
Roller said:
I think Joe Biden is a good man who was right for the times in 2020, but not for now.
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Couldn't agree more, let the haters hate but he is a good man and while he lacks all the charisma of a fresh candidate he did right with what he had IMO.
 
Eric said:
Not sure about what Nate defines as a "normal campaign"
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To begin with, he is going to have to take questions from reporters. And without a cheat sheet of who to call on and what their question is going to be. He can do that at a press conferences where no one is really paying attention, but probably can't get away with it during a campaign.

He is going to have to talk to voters, even those who may ask/shout something he doesn't like, without getting pissed and calling them names.

Chew Toy McCoy said:
A recent theory I heard is that one of the reasons Biden won’t step aside is because he knows Harris is unpopular and will most likely lose as the candidate and the Democrat establishment is deeply entrenched in meritocracy and the diversity culture war. So according to them she should get the nomination by default because she earned it based on her resume and nobody should challenge a woman of color.
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They made their own bed there and will have to sleep in it. There are two D's I can think of that would coast into the Presidency if given the chance: Newsom and Pritzker.

One thing we won't know how it shakes out is the Hamas/Palestinian/Israel issue. For some reason younger people have taken up the Pro-Palestinian/Anti-Israeli cause. If Biden keeps supporting Israel, as he should, will the young people turn out to vote for him? Or will they just stay home?

Also, don't discount the influence Jill has on him. Like Jimmy Carter once joked if he minded no longer being President, he said "No, but Rosalyn does." :) I don't think Jill wants to give up being FLOTUS.
 
Herdfan said:
There are two D's I can think of that would coast into the Presidency if given the chance: Newsom and Pritzker.
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Something is definitely up with Newsom. He's been in the news a lot. Two months ago he challenged DeSantis to a debate. DeSantis accepted and it will happen Nov. 30th, and be televised. What's up with that? I'm guessing Newsom is the Plan B I've been hoping the DNC has - for a just in case situation.
 
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