Electric Vehicles: General topics

I don’t think we have good data on the battery replacements yet, but plenty of anecdotes. The Leaf has a number of things working against it in the design that newer EV platforms have solved for example (temperature management being a big one). LFP platforms can trade range for durability, versus NMC, and wind up with batteries that age out versus wear out under the average US driving habits.
I will concede that data is limited, but I did look into Polestar 2 battery replacement cost locally: $50k AUD. Battery warranty was 7 years I think?

Even if we half that cost, it's still a significant cost that will significantly impact the resale value of a 3-5 year old EV with battery approximately mid-life and say 85-90% capacity.

And that's the big, big cost on EVs that is difficult to quantify, but holds significant risk: resale value. Doesn't help that costs are coming down on EV options in general, so you're being hit with several high likelihood depreciation factors at once. Sure, eventually gas/hybrid will see depreciation too when EV takes over, but I don't see that happening any time soon in Australia due to charging resources.

Personally I think that until we have some sort of reasonably standard/available replacement battery packs for EVs they will be a significant risk to hold onto for more than 2-3 years. This current scenario of highly proprietary batteries for each car that are difficult to replace is BS. China are already working on it, that video I posted from Shanghai auto show demonstrated a hot swap battery setup - like 3-5 minutes automated battery swap. The model would be that you simply lease/rent the battery from a battery company and swap as required, much like you'd fill a tank.

Toyota hybrid (non PHEV) batteries are cheap. Like $3-5k AUD to replace depending on model.

Oh I’ll also add:

According to consumer reports, despite theory the reliability tiers are as follows

Hybrid (best)
gas
Ev

In theory it’s the reverse but the reality is that most hybrids are Toyota and most ev are Tesla so there’s a skew.
 
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I will concede that data is limited, but I did look into Polestar 2 battery replacement cost locally: $50k AUD. Battery warranty was 7 years I think?

Even if we half that cost, it's still a significant cost that will significantly impact the resale value of a 3-5 year old EV with battery approximately mid-life and say 85-90% capacity.

And that's the big, big cost on EVs that is difficult to quantify, but holds significant risk: resale value. Doesn't help that costs are coming down on EV options in general, so you're being hit with several high likelihood depreciation factors at once. Sure, eventually gas/hybrid will see depreciation too when EV takes over, but I don't see that happening any time soon in Australia due to charging resources.

Personally I think that until we have some sort of reasonably standard/available replacement battery packs for EVs they will be a significant risk to hold onto for more than 2-3 years. This current scenario of highly proprietary batteries for each car that are difficult to replace is BS. China are already working on it, that video I posted from Shanghai auto show demonstrated a hot swap battery setup - like 3-5 minutes automated battery swap. The model would be that you simply lease/rent the battery from a battery company and swap as required, much like you'd fill a tank.

Toyota hybrid (non PHEV) batteries are cheap. Like $3-5k AUD to replace depending on model.

Oh I’ll also add:

According to consumer reports, despite theory the reliability tiers are as follows

Hybrid (best)
gas
Ev

In theory it’s the reverse but the reality is that most hybrids are Toyota and most ev are Tesla so there’s a skew.

So far, I'm loving the hybrid I purchased last week. And my wife really likes hers having it for two years now, with zero issues.

Still... I know the future is EV.

We'll be ready when they (and charging stations) become more mainstream. During house construction six years ago we planned ahead for chargers. I had my electrician install three 240volt 50amp service and sockets - two in the garage, in addition to the 220volt 20 amp service for my 3 HP table saw, and one outdoor 240v 50amp service/socket for a charger and kiln.
 
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