Electric Vehicles: General topics

[Alli]

'If you’re a fascist get a Tesla:' Rock legend swipes Trump and Musk with new protest song

Rock legend Neil Young, known for searing protest music that dates to the late 1960s, has a new political ditty to add to his catalog, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. Young, who holds dual American-Canadian citizenship, was once part of supergroups Buffalo Springfield and Crosby...

www.rawstory.com

 

[Yoused]

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(not the best sound quality)

 

[throAU]

I don’t think we have good data on the battery replacements yet, but plenty of anecdotes. The Leaf has a number of things working against it in the design that newer EV platforms have solved for example (temperature management being a big one). LFP platforms can trade range for durability, versus NMC, and wind up with batteries that age out versus wear out under the average US driving habits.

I will concede that data is limited, but I did look into Polestar 2 battery replacement cost locally: $50k AUD. Battery warranty was 7 years I think?

Even if we half that cost, it's still a significant cost that will significantly impact the resale value of a 3-5 year old EV with battery approximately mid-life and say 85-90% capacity.

And that's the big, big cost on EVs that is difficult to quantify, but holds significant risk: resale value. Doesn't help that costs are coming down on EV options in general, so you're being hit with several high likelihood depreciation factors at once. Sure, eventually gas/hybrid will see depreciation too when EV takes over, but I don't see that happening any time soon in Australia due to charging resources.

Personally I think that until we have some sort of reasonably standard/available replacement battery packs for EVs they will be a significant risk to hold onto for more than 2-3 years. This current scenario of highly proprietary batteries for each car that are difficult to replace is BS. China are already working on it, that video I posted from Shanghai auto show demonstrated a hot swap battery setup - like 3-5 minutes automated battery swap. The model would be that you simply lease/rent the battery from a battery company and swap as required, much like you'd fill a tank.

Toyota hybrid (non PHEV) batteries are cheap. Like $3-5k AUD to replace depending on model.

Oh I’ll also add:

According to consumer reports, despite theory the reliability tiers are as follows

Hybrid (best)
gas
Ev

In theory it’s the reverse but the reality is that most hybrids are Toyota and most ev are Tesla so there’s a skew.

 

[Citysnaps]

I will concede that data is limited, but I did look into Polestar 2 battery replacement cost locally: $50k AUD. Battery warranty was 7 years I think?

Even if we half that cost, it's still a significant cost that will significantly impact the resale value of a 3-5 year old EV with battery approximately mid-life and say 85-90% capacity.

And that's the big, big cost on EVs that is difficult to quantify, but holds significant risk: resale value. Doesn't help that costs are coming down on EV options in general, so you're being hit with several high likelihood depreciation factors at once. Sure, eventually gas/hybrid will see depreciation too when EV takes over, but I don't see that happening any time soon in Australia due to charging resources.

Personally I think that until we have some sort of reasonably standard/available replacement battery packs for EVs they will be a significant risk to hold onto for more than 2-3 years. This current scenario of highly proprietary batteries for each car that are difficult to replace is BS. China are already working on it, that video I posted from Shanghai auto show demonstrated a hot swap battery setup - like 3-5 minutes automated battery swap. The model would be that you simply lease/rent the battery from a battery company and swap as required, much like you'd fill a tank.

Toyota hybrid (non PHEV) batteries are cheap. Like $3-5k AUD to replace depending on model.

Oh I’ll also add:

According to consumer reports, despite theory the reliability tiers are as follows

Hybrid (best)
gas
Ev

In theory it’s the reverse but the reality is that most hybrids are Toyota and most ev are Tesla so there’s a skew.

So far, I'm loving the hybrid I purchased last week. And my wife really likes hers having it for two years now, with zero issues.

Still... I know the future is EV.

We'll be ready when they (and charging stations) become more mainstream. During house construction six years ago we planned ahead for chargers. I had my electrician install three 240volt 50amp service and sockets - two in the garage, in addition to the 220volt 20 amp service for my 3 HP table saw, and one outdoor 240v 50amp service/socket for a charger and kiln.

 

[throAU]

So far, I'm loving the hybrid I purchased last week. And my wife really likes hers having it for two years now, with zero issues.

Still... I know the future is EV.

We'll be ready when they (and charging stations) become more mainstream. During house construction six years ago we planned ahead for chargers. I had my electrician install three 240volt 50amp service and sockets - two in the garage, in addition to the 220volt 20 amp service for my 3 HP table saw, and one outdoor 240v 50amp service/socket for a charger and kiln.

Same boat.

Loving the Hybrid RAV4, looking forward to when EV make sense for me. But until that point, not having to think about anything and just get way better economy, emissions, less frequent fill ups, etc. is great.

As above, I'd love to have gone for a PHEV RAV4 as I think they're the current "best of both worlds", but they aren't sold here yet. Maybe in 3 years or so when I upgrade


Also, in case it matters, the EV charging install I was referencing above was for a full fat, 3 phase 11KV setup - to be able to to fully charge a typical EV in 7-8 hours.

 

[throAU]

It has less range than the Nissan Leaf. At least the base model does. Practically everything is an option. No infotainment system at all...

If all you want is a 1-2 passenger vehicle that can cart stuff around your local area this is perfect because it is actually affordable.

Entry price to an EV is way too high at the moment and most people don't really care about having super high end entertainment, etc. if it means the thing costs 50 grand or more.

Also, modular parts doesn't just mean customisation, it also means repairability!

 

[Yoused]

for a full fat, 3 phase 11KV setup

My Ariya calls for a single-phase setup, and though mine should be able to supply 12kW, it only ever draws around half that. I was lucky that the previous owner already had put the right wiring in the garage, and all I had to do was swap the outlet to the right type. It is the same kind of circuit as you would use for a dryer (or, I think they used it for a kiln or welder). The car came with a level 2 EVSE cable, so I do not need to install a charger until such time as I need the extra convenience. Just getting the right breaker/wiring put in should cost quite a bit less than a full charge unit install.

 

[Yoused]

oops, weird posting error

 

[throAU]

Interesting discussion on cars, EVs, environmentalism, recycling, etc.

Australian, but likely applies elsewhere:



(i've linked to the environmentalism/ev section - more than halfway through, but the rest of the vid is interesting too - mostly implicit lying by companies regarding their brand reputation vs country of origin, lies regarding service schedules, etc.).


The TLDW cliffnotes:

• most recyclables aren't actually recycled.
• the plastics industry has a logo that looks like a recycle logo but isn't.
• Li-ion batteries are not economically viable to recycle and end in landfill
• even if people had EVs, many/most city dwellers have no charging capacity at home
• You can get more bang for buck in terms of environmental win by using smaller batteries to make more hybrids than fewer pure EVs. Toyota reckons its like 37x

amogst other things...

 

[Yoused]

Industry in general is lying about just about everything. It is all a load of marketing. But EV batteries can last a lot longer than the naysayers want you to believe. There is a metric shit-ton of disinformation flying around out there.

 

[Nycturne]

You can get more bang for buck in terms of environmental win by using smaller batteries to make more hybrids than fewer pure EVs. Toyota reckons its like 37x

Zero disagreement on this point. But you can also carry it further in that you can get even bigger impacts with transit oriented city development (rail can be electrified without batteries, trolly buses can use electric power in downtown corridors while still being able to have flexible routes, etc, etc). On top of that, if you can develop something like what the Netherlands has achieved, then e-bikes or the like can carry that lithium even further.

even if people had EVs, many/most city dwellers have no charging capacity at home

Which is a fixable infrastructure problem, and I'd argue the fact that we just shrug at it as a market reality is the issue. I mean, consider how much time and energy we as a species poured into paving highways to usher in the car centric age we live in. With how much we have subsidized/encouraged car use, I don't find this a terribly compelling argument against EVs in general, but more a statement of how much work we have in front of us.

Li-ion batteries are not economically viable to recycle and end in landfill

Recycling is probably a pipe dream here for sure. Re-use is another thing though. A battery that's lost 30% of it's capacity (NMC @ ~1000 cycles) may get tossed by someone wanting it in a car, but the flip side is that out of a 72kWh pack (my GV60), that's still 50kWh of potential grid or home storage where most of the cost has already been paid.

Industry in general is lying about just about everything. It is all a load of marketing. But EV batteries can last a lot longer than the naysayers want you to believe. There is a metric shit-ton of disinformation flying around out there.

Some of it is based on the Leaf, which is a first generation product which has zero thermal management of the battery. Thermal management helps a ton here (and would probably help mobile phones as well with how hot they can get these days), but is a relatively new phenomenon. That said, even if I assume 1000 cycles on my battery, at my usage of around 10k miles/year, it should still be ~16-20 years before my battery drops below 200mi range. But the calendar aging effects confounds this sort of estimate.

The ID.4 on the other hand is getting some interesting data on NMC batteries that include thermal management as owners are sharing data into a Google Sheets spreadsheet with battery age data pulled from the OBDII connection.

Battery state of health tracking spreadsheet

Here is how to get your battery health SoH number. You need an OBD dongle and the car scanner app (android or iOS.) read the Maximum energy content of the traction battery (MEC), and the battery min. temp. Degradation is the amount your battery MEC has dropped from new 77kwh for 2021-22 or...

www.vwidtalk.com

It shows an early trend that flattens as it approaches 90% of the original capacity. These cars are holding at ~90% capacity after 4 years or 100,000 miles which is good. LFP batteries should be able to hold ~4x longer (although only Tesla is currently using them due to their unrepairable structural battery pack letting them pack more cells in). Maybe in a decade we'll be able to reap the benefits of real world data on these improved battery systems.

 

[throAU]

That's all well and good, but when calculating for the future, as a risk averse type I'll be going by manufacturer warranty on something worth tens of thousands of dollars (or > 50% of the calculated residual value of the vehicle at lease end) to replace

Have seen anecdotally on twitter people complaining about batteries on model 3 for example well below 90% at 100k miles, have also seen claims of hundreds of thousands of miles being fine. But I'd not be buying a Tesla, or an ID4 and battery tech is changing constantly.

In other words, I'd consider it too early to bet against the manufacturer warranty, and come resale in 3-5 years I suspect the situation won't be too much different for the future buyer of my end of lease vehicle. There's also the public perception which is what actually matters come re-sale - whether it matches reality or not. People know their phone batteries are toast after 5 years, and that will make selling an old BEV harder (less retained value).


If buying outright and willing to wear the cost... go for it. But I'm making sure I'm not under-water on the lease after 3 years for RAV4 hybrid resale, I'm likely to be 20K above water. Based on full EV resale evidence for 3-5 year old vehicles where I am - I'm far more likely to be under-water.

YMMV depending on where you live, the local used car market (Australian used cars don't get salted roads to deal with for example so retain value), etc. - but I'd strongly suggest to anyone looking into purchase/lease to run the calculations carefully; throwing money at excessive car depreciation costs is a very easy way to go broke!

 

[Yoused]

consider how much time and energy we as a species poured into paving highways to usher in the car centric age we live in

The paranoid cynic in me says look at how much petrocorp profited from that. Beside the fact that nice roads facilitate oil-burning car use, they supplied the tar, and the road building itself used a lot of oil-burning machinery. Charging infrastructure does not feed their coffers the way the road building does. Petrocorp pulls enormous weight in what gets promoted in this country and pushes for what feeds them best.