Hamas has launched a major attack on Israel

Again, I'm not sure what you mean by "here". This where I was confused by the wording and I'm hoping that wasn't a response to something I wrote or recommended.

My comments weren’t directed at you or anyone here, that’s just me complaining about bad takes you hear from people.

Speaking of which, this Cenk Uygar interview that seems that has blown up. It’s astounding to me how positive most of the reactions are despite what I can only call naivety, flawed logic, and lack of historical knowledge and context.

1) Killing 3x the number of Palestinians- first I would say who knows what the real numbers are given Hamas cannot be trusted with much of anything, but these numbers are presumed to include Hamas militants. Regardless, he is promoting the narrative that Israels response is pure vengeance and seeking to intentionally target civilians… and that presumably had Israel apparently could have targeted 1000 civilians and then should have stopped because that’s what would be a proportional response.

2)”Everyone can have sovereignty except Palestinians because they are seen as savages and Muslims are too violent and can’t control themselves and therefore are occupied”. In fact, it’s is the Hamas, many Palestinians, and much of the Arab/Muslim world (esp historically) who deny Israel’s right to exist (or even for Jews to exist). Hama’s charter literally states their existence is to destroy Israel. Gaza has not been occupied since 2006 but was previously occupied and was subsequently blockaded because of their savage government hell bent on murdering Jews. 10/7 demonstrated EXACTLY what happens when you allow people like Hamas to their own devices. Egypt also blockades Gaza, yet ZERO comment- perhaps he should ask why. And fun fact, there are numerous Muslim countries that are sovereign nations. And if Israel felt the need to occupy all a Muslims, they’d never turned Gaza back over, or the territory they seized from Egypt and Jordan and Syria in the six day war. Or as a gesture of good will turned over the Temple Mount despite being the most important landmark in Jewish history. I’m sure Cenk has no problem recognizing that religious radicals or virtually any denomination can be extremely dangerous. And sadly violence goes part and parcel with radical Islam.

2) “Bombs kill people” - Israel has endured decades of unguided rocket attacks, suicide bombers, etc. People literally have to build bomb shelters in their homes. While I think it’s terrible to even have to think about civilians being bombed, it’s disgusting for Cenk to play this one sided emotional game that only Palestinians had to worry about their children been incinerated by explosives. And this is a prime example of his own bigotry of low expectations, that Hamas is not responsible for the consequences of its actions… and this is so common. The irony is that clearly he sees these people as such savages that their actions cannot be judged the same as if a westernized nation.

3) How to destroy Hamas “do what America did in the Osama bin Laden raid”. What a joke- and this guy think’s he’s smart enough to be be president? Bin Laden was hiding out in another country, isolated in a compound, protected by a handful of people. I guess Cenk can casually ignore the decade of warfare in Afghanistan prior to finding Bin Landen involving many hundreds of thousands of soldiers, thousands of soldiers dying, hundreds of thousands of Afghans being killed- likely hundreds of thousands of civilians… and let’s not even talk about the wake of suffering induced by the implosion caused by our disastrous exit. Or all the related wars stemming out of war on terror motivated by the hunt for Bin Laden. There are tens of thousands of Hamas fighters embedded among millions of civilians, discerning the two will likely be a challenge. Plus they have 300 miles of tunnels and frankly are far more sophisticated than Bin Laden, so specially considering they are effectively a government. You will never find a single hostage by publicly sending special forces door to door.

4) “Are they looking for the hostages”. Cenk says no. Is he really this dumb to think Israel is advertising the tactics and progress or locating hostages? For all we know as the public most of them could be dead already. Shouldn’t Cenk be calling for a Hamas to release them? Or why not calling for the Palestinian people to demand their government release them? I can tell you there is an unspoken sentiment in Israel that while everyone wants to see the hostages safety returned, there is no expectation Hamas will do that and this situation has become frankly far bigger than the lives of the hostages. Most people outside of Israel may not understand this but I guarantee you likely every Israeli hostage would rather die than be returned at the expense of some benefit to the terroriet and/or detriment to a Israel’s safety

5) “This is genocide against Palestinians”’ - Again, 10/7 demonstrates Hama’s genocidal intentions which is why they can’t even be trusted to use cement for reasons other than war. If Israel is seeking the Genocide of a Palestinians, they’ve done a very bad job their their population exponentially increasing??

5) “bombings that cause Civilian deaths is terrorism” - what do you call the people that are courage the use of human shield's? Why is there NEVER any responsibility given to Hamas and how their actions- politically, legally, economically, militarily, etc affect Palestinians?

6) “How are the Palestinians suppose to rise up against Hamas if they don’t have elections.” LOL- The same way every other country has done this throughout history. Should I assume Cenk believes the US gained independence from Britain by Britain granting the US elections? Once again here is the Bigotry against Palestinians that they have no capability for self determination and that’s everyone else’s fault because they’re just too weak of people, therefore are 100% free of even the slightest degree responsibility of their life circumstances. If they indeed want new leadership, Hamas is not going to be the one to provide them with the election opportunity.

7) “We need a two state solution” - There is only is only one side of that rejected every peace deal and another side that has offered many- including some unbelievably generous. Cenk misses the overarching theme -Hamas has no interest in peace
 
Speaking of which, this Cenk Uygar interview that seems that has blown up. It’s astounding to me how positive most of the reactions are despite what I can only call naivety, flawed logic, and lack of historical knowledge and context.
Uygar's comments are so typical of the knee jerk response some people have about this conflict. So they bring up Palestinian civilian casualties but conveniently neglect to mention that Hamas fires rockets into civilian populated areas with the intention of causing civilian casualties, that they went door to door intentionally, and gleefully, killing civilians. The "proportional response" argument is equally silly - were Hamas to have more sophisticated weapons, would they feel any need to be restrained in the damage they would inflict? Should Israel hold back in their response just to make things equal? Hamas is still firing rockets from rooftops and storing their weapons in densely populated areas. The overwhelming blame for Palestinian casualties rests with them.

I previously mentioned this video about the background to the conflict from the point of view of an Israeli tour guide and was curious to get opinions but no response so far so I will repeat it here. It directly addresses some of the arguments that Uygar and others make:
Free Palestine? No thanks! (The Israeli perspective)
 
Uygar's comments are so typical of the knee jerk response some people have about this conflict. So they bring up Palestinian civilian casualties but conveniently neglect to mention that Hamas fires rockets into civilian populated areas with the intention of causing civilian casualties, that they went door to door intentionally, and gleefully, killing civilians. The "proportional response" argument is equally silly - were Hamas to have more sophisticated weapons, would they feel any need to be restrained in the damage they would inflict? Should Israel hold back in their response just to make things equal? Hamas is still firing rockets from rooftops and storing their weapons in densely populated areas. The overwhelming blame for Palestinian casualties rests with them.

I previously mentioned this video about the background to the conflict from the point of view of an Israeli tour guide and was curious to get opinions but no response so far so I will repeat it here. It directly addresses some of the arguments that Uygar and others make:
Free Palestine? No thanks! (The Israeli perspective)

Totally agree. And Cenk talks so much about “bigotry” yet every interview I see with where his ideas are remotely challenged he paints the interviewer as holding all sorts of ideas he/she may not hold. As if someone believes X about a topic 1 they must also support Y and Z regarding 2 and 3. The idea people are binary one dimensional, and non-nuanced thinker perpetuates, if not is one of the root causes of tribalism and division in society.

I only watch a bit of that video but I think it’s important people educate themselves on the history of the Israel/Palestine conflict and the region. And I would encourage looking at the history from all perspectives.

One piece of false history that routinely circulates whenever conflict is then so called “disappearing Palestine”’map falsely showing Israel dramatically consuming Palestinian land. This popularly repeated propaganda has even been posted by major media outlets like MSNBC that have had to subsequently retract.

And people in the west need to understand the people they are supporting. When they chant “from the river to the sea Palestine will be free” that refers to the Jordan River and Mediterranean Sea. And by free they mean free of Israel and Jews. The reason Israel has retained controls over Palestine is not because they want to, it’s because 10/7 would be just the beginning. Hamas and their supporters do not share the same value of westerners. But they know some westerners cannot fathom the atrocities they commit like shooting rockets from the roofs of hospitals and schools could possibly believe a “government” would do that. The human rights we take for granted in the west are not the concepts respected in Palestine- no freedom of speech, freedom of press, LGBT rights, women’s rights, racial equality, etc. - All the things you’d expect liberal college students to righteously advocate for, yet for some reason Palestine gets a free pass when it comes to their treatment of their own citizens.

I have no problem with people voicing their support of Palestinian citizens freedom and self determination… but blaming it all on Israel and reciting the Propaganda of terrorists just demonstrates their ignorance. While Israel is not 100% free from sin in the decades of conflict, Hamas is unquestionably the primary source of oppression for Palestinians. But of course the Israelis are blamed for the dysfunctional state of Palestine and not the fact Hamas commits every resource possible into preparing for war rather than benefiting their society.

I mean really- they built 300 miles if not more of concrete tunnels. That’s more than half the length of operational NYC subway track. Though you can’t fit a train through them, but considering they dig with jackhammers and less than 10 years ago only had 60 miles, they’re obviously committing massive resources. And newer portions of these tunnels are reportedly in excess of 125ft below the surface. In 2014 the estimated cost was as high as $90m. That could likely buy them a small power power plant.

Another issue hurting the quality of life is the PA vs Hamas issue. For example, in 2017 or 2018 the PA stopped dramatically cut and stopped paying government employees in Gaza. Around the same time the PA cut 40% of power delivery to Gaza (that was supplied by Israel) with the PA saying Gazans needed to pay for their power. The PA also effectively suspended the program to pay for Gazan’s healthcare outside of Gaza. This was all a power struggle between the PA and Hamas.

It’s worth noting Gaza also used to get electricity from Egypt but the PA also stopped paying for that as well. Not sure if that ever changed, but I don’t think I’ve heard demands for Egypt to provide power. It’s also worth noting in 2007 the EU, who had been paying for Gaza’s power plant fuel, stopped payments due to Hamas skimming money. Israel can’t even supply the 500MW demand Gaza has, they supply about 120MW while Gaza’s plant can only produce 80MW despite a 130MW capacity- but under normal circumstances can’t afford the fuel for reliable power.

You’d think with the billions in aid they could afford some cheap aero-derivative gas turbine power plants or large scale solar deployments. But certainly no commercial foreign investment will ever come to Palestine so long as terrorists are in charge and the instability that brings.

Similar deal with water. The land the Jews received to form Israel was garbage, while the Arabs received better quality land. Israel was able to develop the technology to turn desert into farmable land. Hamas desalination and sewage plants are barely operational. Water pipes have been removed to build bombs. The drilling of private wells was forbidden years ago without a license that apparently are hard to come by and locals will say is so the govt can profit from and control the source of water.

If you go back 10 years, 15 years, you will find articles citing how Gaza’s infrastructure is crumbling with only 15% of desalination plants working and the failing sewage treatment, etc. And yet not one of these problems seems to be resolved.

And for all the talk of Gazans having their water shut off- Per CNN 7 days ago:
In 2021, about 90% of Gaza's water came from groundwater wells, according to the Palestinian Water Authority. The remaining 10% of the water supply comes from the desalination plants or is purchased from Israel's national water company,
While I can’t say this for sure, but given the population is well acquainted with only having electricity for 4hrs per day, I have to imagine they have manual well pumps.

Don’t get me wrong, I truly feel for the conditions Palestinians are forced to line under- but I blame those conditions first and foremost and primarily on their government. And I don’t think many of the university student “pro-Palestine” advocates even understand those conditions really are let alone what life is actually like outside of their sheltered 1st world bubble. They can only see the world world though the oppressed/oppressor “lens”, failing to realize it’s just a single lens, and there are many lenses one must look through.

If Palestine was to elect a political ideology that included living peacefully with Israel and Israel continued to take actions like blockading imports, making settlements (most of which I disagree with already), etc then I have no issue putting all the blame on Israel for the circumstances and more blame on any consequences. But living with a neighbor actively trying to kidnap and heinously murder your civilians, I see no option but to take actions Israel has taken in the past, which is undoubtably a far more humane option than what would happen historically or what Palestine would do had they the resources.

And I am very concerned now this plays out for Israel, the Middle East, and the world. This could easily spiral into a much greater conflict possibly including the US and Europe.

The argument now is Israel should not be bombing, they should take out Hamas and rescue hostages using special forces. Except thats unlikely not feasible given the size and scope of the task. And surely ANY amount of ground activity will be see as too great. Realistically if Israel invades there will likely be even greater civilian and Israeli soldier casualties- which will also be heavily criticized. At the same time, I don’t see how Hamas can commit an atrocity like this and there not be repercussions. With dictators and government terrorists, this only signals weakness and invites more attacks. There is no conceivable diplomatic response for raping, kidnapping, and gruesomely murdering innocent and defenseless civilians.
 

Center right source. I've found their opinions balanced and at the very least admitting they don't know all the details about everything and aren't reflexively picking a side....or even that a side needs to be picked.
 
If Palestine was to elect a political ideology that included living peacefully with Israel and Israel continued to take actions like blockading imports..
Just for the record, the Gaza blockade is maintained by Egypt as well as Israel. Somehow the anti-Israel protesters usually fail to mention this.
 
Just for the record, the Gaza blockade is maintained by Egypt as well as Israel. Somehow the anti-Israel protesters usually fail to mention this.

Or fail to mention that none of the majority Islamic countries want to take the Palestinian refugees.

Exactly. And this has long been the case. Egypt ironically gets sympathy from other Arab nations somehow understanding their predicament. Hamas has called Egypt’s blockade a “crime against humanity” but you’d never hear that in the English-speaking media.

The fact of the matter is Egypt and all the other Arab countries want nothing to do with the radicals in Palestine. Opening their country to refugees opens the door for destabilizing radicals. And with Egypt in particular, their Sinai peninsula (captured by Israel in the 6 day war and returned btw- a massive area relative to Israel) adjacent to Gaza is a desert, with few inhabitants, of little economic value, and much larger than Gaza. It says a lot that Egypt doesn’t want Palestinian refugees inhabiting what is otherwise an expanse of worthless territory.

I suppose to be fair to Egypt they are not in this awkward territorial dispute. But it’s not like Israel hasn’t allowed Gaza its own government.

Another thing I’d like to highlight is that the Jewish population, tiny as it may be, is tremendously diverse- from secular Jews to cultish orthodox groups. Most are unaware of Indian and Ethiopian Jews. This goes without saying yet but clearly one Jew’s opinion does not speak for the community or indicate the majority view. I routinely see Jew’s with radical or strong anti-Israeli sentiment presented as such. Or that their idea is somehow legitimized by being supported by a Jew.

I am glad to see this community sees this situation with the nuance it deserves. I have seen the rise and embrace of pro-Palestinian sentiments based on propaganda and antisemitism- to be clear there’s nothing wrong with being pro-Palestinian, I am pro-Palestinian in a literal sense- they deserve the human rights and freedom any human deserves. But IMO the issue is fundamentally Hamas and the PA. The Israel issue is downstream from that.

In the past on MR there were a number of users who accepted the Hamas propaganda hook line and sinker. One person in particular seemed to have an agenda specifically against Israel, which I suppose is one’s right. He would constantly repeat the same offensive tropes, repeatedly promote misinformation I would debunk and frequently cite objectively and/or self-identified antisemitic sources. And I was frequently disappointed with the lack of pushback from the rest of the community, though I understand many people until now may not have been confident enough in their understanding the complexities of this issue and hush for most people is not relevant.

With such a tremendous attack on Israel for the first time I felt some level of fear as a Jew in America- mostly for other Jews who practicing rather than myself. And I have the same concern for Muslims as well. If you look at Europe over the past decade and things are very problematic- with many Jews fleeing Europe once again due to discrimination. Domestically, I think most white supremacists are LARPing but when push comes to shove wouldn’t sacrifice their freedom attacking Jews. It’s the lone wolf attack that are the legitimate problem. And often these perpetrators are mentally disturbed. And conflicts in Israel can easily inspire these unstable people.

So again, I appreciate everyone taking the time to better understand this situation and seeing Hamas for what they are. And that the there are unavoidable in consequences of war. I think we can all accept Israel is NOT without wrongdoing in this 70+’year conflict but also Hamas is not the image of a peaceful angelic victim they have so successfully conveyed to so many in the West. Especially among universities.
 
One of the most useless questions I’ve heard from a journalist on this is where does Biden stand on the concern that Israel isn’t doing enough to prevent civilian casualties. What do they expect the possible answers to that might be? “Biden is a big fan of civilian casualties. If anything, he’s concerned there aren’t enough.”? Or perhaps “Civilian casualties?! What?! We are completely unaware there are any. We’ll have to look into that. Thanks for bringing it to our attention.”?

Here's a just as informative but more efficient exchange.

Journalist: Civilian casualties, thoughts and prayers?

Press secretary: Thoughts and prayers.
 
I can see situations where if it can be 100% established that Iranian weapons/rockets/bombs/etc. were used in killing Americans, there would be a measured military response. Perhaps destroying tactical/fighter aircraft (even F14s supplied by the US in the mid-1970s when the Shah was in power, and still in use) at various Iranian bases, starting with Mehrabad.

Seems something is afoot. Perhaps in the next few weeks.


“We will have to do that,” Votel said. “I think we are at the point where we can probably do that now, and we should.” With the additional military assets dispatched to the region, he added, “we can and should respond more directly to these threats on our troops.”
 
Not really seeing a path where 1) we don't get involved militarily and 2) that this doesn't escalate into a larger ME war.

I feel like this is going to be like the Republicans and the abortion issue – great to campaign on, not so much when it’s your accomplished plaything. “Death to America/The West!” may be great to indoctrinate followers, not so much when The West shows up on your doorstep to accept the challenge.

Given our vast overestimation of Russia’s military (again, great for propaganda), you really have to question our estimation of Iran’s.
 
I feel like this is going to be like the Republicans and the abortion issue – great to campaign on, not so much when it’s your accomplished plaything. “Death to America/The West!” may be great to indoctrinate followers, not so much when The West shows up on your doorstep to accept the challenge.

Given our vast overestimation of Russia’s military (again, great for propaganda), you really have to question our estimation of Iran’s.

"Given our vast overestimation of Russia’s military (again, great for propaganda), you really have to question our estimation of Iran’s."

By "our" do you mean republican estimation or US military/intelligence/leadership/etc? I think the US intelligence agencies, military, etc likely has that accurately nailed.
 

Center right source. I've found their opinions balanced and at the very least admitting they don't know all the details about everything and aren't reflexively picking a side....or even that a side needs to be picked.

I haven’t heard of this outlet but I will take a look. As frustrating as it is to see some outlets calculating moral equivalence with casualties and damage as well as the level of proportionality in for Israel’s defense while deaths are still being mourned and Hamas continues attacks… I do not respect unquestioning support of Israel or the emotional cries for unmeasured responses based on anger.

Apparently the NYT has done an investigation into footage the US and Israel has cited as evidence as showing a Palestinian rocket. They apparently conclude it may have been an Iron Dome missile. I have not read the article, but watched this video.:


I used like like Krystal and Sagar when they were on the Hill and I know others here watched their content. Even though I opposed their ideas I appreciated their thoughtfulness and ability to think beyond party naratives. Since creating their own channel, I’ve been increasingly been unimpressed. On many topics now Krystal is clearly very passionate about her opinion and Sagar and the other hosts seem afraid to challenge her thoughts. The show worked previously because they could debate two sides of one issue. Additionally, on Ukraine and Israel the two have taken a pacifist stance and routinely discount objective facts to support their narrative while repeating dubious reporting that supports their narrative which they end up having to walk back.

I have yet to see if their interpretation of the Times article is correct. Regardless of all the noise being considered as evidence, the clear evidence we have is that Hamas claimed a hospital was bombed when it was not. As Sagar rightfully notes Hamas claimed 500+ deaths yet there is no way of making such an assessment minutes after the explosion and scrubbed the scene. Hamas claimed an airstrike and clearly targeted this area as not the aftermath of a bomb. Perhaps the US/Israel is covering things up, perhaps the prioritized minimizing the outrage that had begun and cancelled 2 presidential visits, perhaps their analysis are not very good. Despite Krystal’s claim this is the US’s only evidence it’s probably not- the US, Israel, and likely Egypt likely have radar which they’re not going to share publicly (and would only be called fake). The US probably doesn’t want an independent investigation because it only gives credibility to Hamas who btw is our ENEMY. For Krystal no amount of evidence will convince her of her preconceived ideas and she has admitted as much. They’ve lost their credibility in my book and this conflict just reinforces that.

And despite their criticism of corporate interests and undisclosed conflicts of interest in media and politicos-‘Krystal routinely shills for MaryAnne Williamson without disclosing Williamson officiated her wedding. And Sagars wife is an aid for Chuck Schumer- something never disclosed until he married her. And they appear to have not spoken about him since despite previously not being the case.

What is also missed here is blaming the attach on a failed Iron Dome rocket is not the criticism they think it is. As a purely defensive system, it was only launched because someone in a Palestine launched a rocket at populated or valuable target in Israel. If it’s launch/guidance failed, that’s always a possibility. And just as the dysfunctional Ukrainian air defense missile that killed 2 in Poland ultimately falls on the hands of Russia (which these 2 ultimately agreed with despite their fervent disagreement with Ukraine aid), a failed Iron Dome intercept is the fault of Hamas.

It doesn’t seem like the NYT has a strong argument however this was iron dome, just the military’s video was unlikely the rocket they said it was. And this all assumes the NYT knows what they are talking about.

The irony too is their opposition to Israel’s military action (based on the fear of the US getting drawn into a WWIII scenario, which isn’t unfounded) is that routinely and unquestioningly amplifying Hamas propaganda like this hospital attack is that it INCREASES the risk of other terrorists and Iran joining the conflict directly by unnecessarily riling up emotions- which risks US involvement and further cascades. Hamas would LOVE to have Iran join them militarily.
 
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"Given our vast overestimation of Russia’s military (again, great for propaganda), you really have to question our estimation of Iran’s."

By "our" do you mean republican estimation or US military/intelligence/leadership/etc? I think the US intelligence agencies, military, etc likely has that accurately nailed.

I don’t think the parties enter into it. Even if it’s just for propaganda purposes we were lead to believe the Russian military is formidable. It became blatantly obvious pretty quickly in Ukraine that, that isn’t the case, or at least not to the degree we’ve been told. I also seem to recall we were told the same thing about Iraq’s military and we crushed them with a quickness. If there’s any silver lining to be found in our grotesque military spending it’s that it has really paid off on the battlefield but in order to keep up and increase the military spending we have to be fed a constant stream of mythical enemies with power that doesn’t exist.
 
Seems something is afoot. Perhaps in the next few weeks.


“We will have to do that,” Votel said. “I think we are at the point where we can probably do that now, and we should.” With the additional military assets dispatched to the region, he added, “we can and should respond more directly to these threats on our troops.”
There are apparently rumors the US asked Israel to hold off on its ground invasion so the U.S. could get its assets in place. There’s two ways of interpreting this if true- 1) the US just wants to be ready for possible escalations or 2) the US has plans of its own with some of the 3rd parties involved.

I feel like this is going to be like the Republicans and the abortion issue – great to campaign on, not so much when it’s your accomplished plaything. “Death to America/The West!” may be great to indoctrinate followers, not so much when The West shows up on your doorstep to accept the challenge.

Given our vast overestimation of Russia’s military (again, great for propaganda), you really have to question our estimation of Iran’s.

From what I understand, I don’t think Iran is much threat to the US in a direct conflict. The concern is Iran possess a large inventory of missiles and what is believed to be the largest in the ME. And while a lot of them are probably outdated Soviet-era technology, they have developed precision guidance systems and solid-fuel propulsion that allows for much more mobility (they don’t need to launch from fixed sites).

As far as we know, Iran cannot strike the US and is unlikely to reliably hit Western Europe. But if we engage in a conflict, Iran’s first order of business will be launching a barrage of missiles at Israel. This has always been the problem with Iran regardless of Israel even being involved in hypothetical conflicts. Obviously air defense can only handle so many targets simultaneously. And large numbers of old, imprecise rockets work just fine to overwhelm air defense while newer, more accurate missiles are more likely to hit their targets.

The other problem is Iran can target US bases in the vicinity. As we have seen over the past several years, these bases have limited capability to defend themselves from ballistic missiles- meaning none in some cases.

Iran has also clearly been investing in asymmetric warfare such as their drones and cyber.

There’s a lot to be said about Russia and their abilities. Russia does have a lot of advanced weapons and massive stockpiles. Their missile tech is impressive and the result of Cold War strategy. While the US largely invested in aircraft, the Soviet’s invested in missiles and air defense.

I think it’s a good well known Russia has had difficulty maintaining their hardware, but I’m not sure anyone estimated how bad it had become. The other issue is Russia killed off their best soldiers with their initial invasion- plus some of their better equipment. Moral has been terrible and a lot of their troops now are conscripts or barely/totally untrained soldiers. Russia assumed Ukraine would not fight back and thus were totally unprepared- to the point the invading forces were unaware they were invading let alone in Ukraine.

Iran may have similar maintenance issues, but I suspect their population would be much more inspired to fight given the propaganda and fanaticism they’ve been raised in. Plus they’d be ostensibly “defending” their country. They know they can’t win a conventional war- thus the nuclear development as that’s seen as a means to eternal security. The next best thing they can do is take Israel down with them.

It’s best to have a fair assessment of a country’s capabilities, but it’s better to overestimate than underestimate. Russia has learned that the hard way.

The US military clearly is in a league of its own, but I think it’s very dangerous to assume we are invincible because of our spending and technology. Just look at how successful Ukraine has been fighting Russia using asymmetric warfare- especially versus the Russian Navy. Ukraine doesn’t even have anything resembling a navy. It’s not like the US was super successful in the Afghanistan, Vietnam, etc- though this is often self imposed failure.

In a conflict with China, I’m not sure success is anywhere close to being guaranteed. The allies won WWII because of America’s manufacturing capability. China is quickly developing better military tech but more importantly has an unrivaled ability to manufacture. Something the US has lost almost entirely compared to the 1940’s and present day China.
 
There are apparently rumors the US asked Israel to hold off on its ground invasion so the U.S. could get its assets in place. There’s two ways of interpreting this if true- 1) the US just wants to be ready for possible escalations or 2) the US has plans of its own with some of the 3rd parties involved.

I'd go along with Option 1, with the US wanting to being extremely well prepared, with a wide range of options available, should Iran choose to be adventurous in the conflict. :) And as @Cmaier suggested earlier, it would a good opportunity to destroy their nuclear program and ambitions in addition to degrading their ability to attack Israel.

The other problem is Iran can target US bases in the vicinity. As we have seen over the past several years, these bases have limited capability to defend themselves from ballistic missiles- meaning none in some cases.

With two carrier strike groups in the area, superior intelligence gathering (space assets, RC-135 Rivet Joint and other surveillance aircraft and ships/submarines, etc in the area) providing tip-offs on Iranian attack preparations, we should have enough warning to act proactively (or at least at a first attack) with a well-developed plan. I suspect that would also result in green-lighting the US attacking a wider range of military assets deep in Iran, sending a strong message.

EDIT: A carrier strike group was recently moved to the Persian Gulf as a result of Iran's recent flexing. I don't know if that's a 3rd strike group, or, if one of the two strike strike groups in the eastern Mediterranean was moved to the Persian Gulf. And another one will be sent to replace it off of Israel.

Iran may have similar maintenance issues, but I suspect their population would be much more inspired to fight given the propaganda and fanaticism they’ve been raised in. Plus they’d be ostensibly “defending” their country.

I wonder (and have doubts) about that. I think there's a good chunk of the population who remember better times when the Shah was in power (or relate to stories being passed down by elders). My gut feeling, having spent time working in Iran in the past, is that times were much better living under the Shah during a prosperous and somewhat Western-like environment, rather than under the current religious regime. I can see that being toppled someday (not imminent, but under the right circumstances in the future).
 
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I'd go along with Option 1, with the US wanting to being extremely well prepared, with a wide range of options available, should Iran choose to be adventurous in the conflict. :) And as @Cmaier suggested earlier, it would a good opportunity to destroy their nuclear program and ambitions in addition to degrading their ability to attack Israel.



With two carrier strike groups in the area, superior intelligence gathering (space assets, RC-135 Rivet Joint and other surveillance aircraft and ships/submarines, etc in the area) providing tip-offs on Iranian attack preparations, we should have enough warning to act proactively (or at least at a first attack) with a well-developed plan. I suspect that would also result in green-lighting the US attacking a wider range of military assets deep in Iran, sending a strong message.



I wonder (and have doubts) about that. I think there's a good chunk of the population who remember better times when the Shah was in power (or relate to stories being passed down by elders). My gut feeling, having spent time working in Iran in the past, is that times were much better living under the Shah during a prosperous and somewhat Western-like environment, rather than under the current religious regime. I can see that being toppled someday (not imminent, but under the right circumstances in the future).

It’s crazy to think that Iran was once a thriving, modern society and an ally of the US- enough for us to sell them the F-14, one of our newest and most capable fighter jets at the time- and the only other country it was ever exported to. Also the reason why except for some museum models they were shredded upon retirement from the US Navy. (If you’re interested in this somewhere on YouTube there is a fascinating discussion on the lengths Iran would go to in order to acquire parts to maintain their F14’s, creating a whole network to do so- and how the US developed a whole department to dismantle it and prevent parts from being exported. It’s quite interesting.) Anyways- very sad.

Iran’s Islamic revolution occurred what? 45 years ago? I’ve not studied their history to know how quickly thing fell apart but I’d think it didn’t take too long. Certainly there are many around who remember better times but of them aren’t so young these days. Probably at least in their mid 50’s or early 60’s to have a clear understanding. Millions fled too. I’m sure there are younger folks however who can look to other nations and see a better way exists. The 2022 protests over the “morality police” killing looked like civilians are at a breaking point, but not in a position to overthrow their leaders.

Apparently there’s been at least 19 strikes on US bases since Oct 17 from Iran-backed terrorist groups. I’m not sure if they’re considering a strike an individual missiles or an individual attack. It’s been said these attacks are not being intended to actually target soldiers, rather just send a harassment- but if they wanted to they could actually target soliders. This was like the attack after Soulamini where most of the missiles struck well short of populated areas on the base. Not to say casualties can’t be inflicted doing this.

It’s not a matter of knowing attacks are coming. It’s a matter of defending against them. Ballistic missiles can be detected by satellites and I’d imagine without missile interceptor systems, bases still have radar. I’d imagine the US is paying a lot more attending to Iran than they have prior to 10/7. I interpret the first carrier sent as a message of deterrence, the second (sent later) is because they are planning for conflict.

Even if we attacked proactively, that would likely require hundreds of missiles launched near simultaneously. Iran would likely see an attack coming or is at least prepared- probably has been since before 10/7. Their missile arsenal is primarily short-medium range missiles, thus small and in many cases very mobile and warning time limited. Mobility is why HIMARS has been so successful. We have much more capabilities to locate such things, not to mention execute a strike in a timely manner than Russia does. But it’s still going to be a challenge. I would suspect Iran and all their allies have a contingency plan if Iran is attacked to barrage Israel from every possible direction with rockets and missiles.

A full fledged war with the US will be a suicide mission for Iran. The question is how much damage can they inflict on Israel before they’re done?
 
Iran’s Islamic revolution occurred what? 45 years ago?

Yes. In a nutshell... Initially it was a slow burn starting around the beginning of 1978 when there were massive demonstrations and gasoline shortages (if you can believe that) creating huge lines of cars waiting to fuel up. The Shah tried to keep that under control, but failed. The SAVAK secret police and intelligence service didn't help by keeping responses brutal and killing hundreds of demonstrators. From France, Khomeini called for more demonstrations, and eventually the Shah's overthrow, which in December 1978 inspired soldiers mutinying against the Shah and forced him to leave Iran (while not abdicating) the following January. Khomeini returned to Iran in February 1979, and the rest is history.
 
Isn't Iran somewhat exposed since an attack on their oil production facilities would be a major blow to their economy (and lead to higher gas prices everywhere, as would just having a major war in the region)?
 
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