Hamas has launched a major attack on Israel

[Citysnaps]

I honestly don't know that enough people are paying attention or care. We hear a lot from the loud ones, but not really sure how many of them there are.

True. Apparently more yada yada warnings from Biden in today's conversation with Netanyahu. Nothing will change.

 

[AG_PhamD]

I wonder if this and future arms sales will be detrimental to Biden in the election. Not that there's an alternate sane choice.

"The Biden administration approved the transfer of thousands more bombs to Israel on the same day Israeli airstrikes in Gaza killed seven aid workers for the charity group World Central Kitchen, three U.S. officials told The Washington Post this week after the incident elicited global condemnation."

https://wapo.st/4aKpXvr

If Biden wants to pull support, I think he’s going to have a difficult time. If he pulls out, more than half American Jewish community is going to be enraged, which is overwhelmingly democrat and wields tremendous influence politically, financially, culturally, etc. There’s also a lot of Christians, not all of whom are on the right, that side with Israel. And I think there are a lot of Americans who side with Israel, believe in military action, but do not like how the war is being carried. Biden withdrawing support will be hammered by Trump in the elections and will most definitely rally evangelical Christians.

Honestly, it’s probably in Biden’s best political interest to get Israel to wrap things up. Let alone everyone else involved.

The irony is if those firmly on the side of Gaza do not go out and vote for Biden and he loses, Trump will surely give full support to Israel.

That said, if the US pulls aid I’m not sure that will stop Israel. They have massive weapons stockpiles, a huge defense industry, and can probably continue the fight in perpetuity. US aid just limits Israel depleting arms that may need to be used against Iran and it’s proxies. The real consequence would likely be iron dome interceptors for which Israel relies on US production by Boeing and Raytheon. Supporting US aircraft would eventually become difficult but they don’t need to use aircraft.

I don’t think the US media does a remotely good job covering Israeli politics. Netanyahu has lost credibility almost entirely in Israel. But Israelis overwhelmingly support continuing to decapitate Hamas and that will most definitely be the policy regardless of who is in power. Benny Gantz, the so called moderate, is in the war cabinet and he seems to have no plans other than to finish what has been started. Hamas more than ever is considered and existential threat. And I wonder too how much of the overkill in this war has nothing to do with politics but rather the Israeli military being beyond political control given the emotions involved.

The problem with stopping aid entirely is it could signal Israel’s numerous enemies to attack, leading to a bigger conflict. It could also encourage Israel to hit Gaza harder now that they have no need to appease the US.

As a Hebew speaking American Jew, I have been very nervous about how this war has been carried out since day one and have been disappointed with some of Israel’s actions. That said, Hamas must be destroyed… not only for the safety of Israel but for the advancement of Gazans. Israel has totally failed at maintaining international support, holding the moral high ground, and at communicating their intentions. Instead, they’ve attracted negative attention and have made the already bad relationship even worse. The message from day 1 should have been we are going to remove Hamas to benefit both sides. Clearly there has been no effort to win the hearts and minds of Gazans.

Gaza/Hamas on the other hand has long been winning in information warfare and got Israel to react in the way they wanted.

If you ask me a ceasefire needs to be arranged and hostages returned. I can’t see Hamas returning hostages though since it’s probably the only thing keeping the leadership alive. Netanyahu needs to go along with any expectation of Gaza becoming Israeli territory, which seems to be his goal. Israel needs to deal with the issue that there’s a rapidly growing ultra-religious base immune from military service and who have 15 kids per family, which gives a radical minority increasing influence over the government.

At some point Hamas will need to be decapitated but it doesn’t need to be today or tomorrow. Do it when they least expect it. There needs to be a plan ready regarding who governs next- it can’t be Israel- perhaps a collation of Muslim nations with whom Israel has decent relations (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE, Bahrain). Israel does however bear some responsibility in helping rebuild and providing humanitarian assistance as best they can now and definitely once their military action has concluded. I think what’s absolutely clear is that foreign aid must be managed by an independent and responsible party so it cannot be squandered away on weapons and tunnels.

Even with the best intentions and most careful action (which I am not convinced has been the case here), there’s no getting around the the fact Israel is fighting a war in Gaza which is about 2x the size of DC with 3x the population and Hamas exploits civilian casualties. It’s urban warfare against an insurgent force that’s indiscernible from civilians.

Gaza admitted yesterday they have no idea how many have died at this point because the hospital data infrastructure has been destroyed. Clearly the number is high and even if we accept it their past figures and current estimates as a fair, they don’t say how many of those people were soldiers. 16-17 year old fighters are not uncommon either, if not even younger. Some western experts suggest about 50% of the later teen/early adult fatalities are fighters, at least early in the war.

This was always going to be a bloody, heinous, destructive war for Gaza in particular. But my concern since day 1 is that Israel will inflict irreparable damage on its global image. And that seems to be the case increasingly.

There’s no reason that with peace and the eventual institution of an healthy independent government, 20 years from now Gaza couldn’t be a wildly successful state, just like Israel. Perhaps Israel and global leadership should use strategy of incentives where Gaza moving in the right direction unlocks steps towards independent statehood. This was tried in the past, but perhaps it’s worth a shot again if new leadership can be established.

As awful as things have been between Israel and Palestinian, I don’t think continuous conflict has to be inevitable. It wasn’t so long ago the US and Japan had pretty atrocious relations to say the least. Pearl Harbor has its similarities to 10/6, the US in response pretty much leveled Japan with fire bombing. Now look at the strong relationship and success of Japan. This is despite a vast cultural divide and the fact the US unleashed nuclear weapons. Israel and Gaza have very unique circumstances, but if Japan can get over being nuked, Gaza and Israel can overcome their longstanding conflict. The same with US and Britain, US and Vietnam, Europe and Germany, etc.

 

[Citysnaps]

I just listened to an NPR interview of the father of one of the World Central Kitchen's workers recently killed by the Israelis. He's convinced the bombing of the aid workers was an intentional act. I don't think it's far fetched believing the IDF was sending a message approving the mission.

 

[Roller]

If Biden wants to pull support, I think he’s going to have a difficult time. If he pulls out, more than half American Jewish community is going to be enraged, which is overwhelmingly democrat and wields tremendous influence politically, financially, culturally, etc. There’s also a lot of Christians, not all of whom are on the right, that side with Israel. And I think there are a lot of Americans who side with Israel, believe in military action, but do not like how the war is being carried. Biden withdrawing support will be hammered by Trump in the elections and will most definitely rally evangelical Christians.

Honestly, it’s probably in Biden’s best political interest to get Israel to wrap things up. Let alone everyone else involved.

The irony is if those firmly on the side of Gaza do not go out and vote for Biden and he loses, Trump will surely give full support to Israel.

That said, if the US pulls aid I’m not sure that will stop Israel. They have massive weapons stockpiles, a huge defense industry, and can probably continue the fight in perpetuity. US aid just limits Israel depleting arms that may need to be used against Iran and it’s proxies. The real consequence would likely be iron dome interceptors for which Israel relies on US production by Boeing and Raytheon. Supporting US aircraft would eventually become difficult but they don’t need to use aircraft.

I don’t think the US media does a remotely good job covering Israeli politics. Netanyahu has lost credibility almost entirely in Israel. But Israelis overwhelmingly support continuing to decapitate Hamas and that will most definitely be the policy regardless of who is in power. Benny Gantz, the so called moderate, is in the war cabinet and he seems to have no plans other than to finish what has been started. Hamas more than ever is considered and existential threat. And I wonder too how much of the overkill in this war has nothing to do with politics but rather the Israeli military being beyond political control given the emotions involved.

The problem with stopping aid entirely is it could signal Israel’s numerous enemies to attack, leading to a bigger conflict. It could also encourage Israel to hit Gaza harder now that they have no need to appease the US.

As a Hebew speaking American Jew, I have been very nervous about how this war has been carried out since day one and have been disappointed with some of Israel’s actions. That said, Hamas must be destroyed… not only for the safety of Israel but for the advancement of Gazans. Israel has totally failed at maintaining international support, holding the moral high ground, and at communicating their intentions. Instead, they’ve attracted negative attention and have made the already bad relationship even worse. The message from day 1 should have been we are going to remove Hamas to benefit both sides. Clearly there has been no effort to win the hearts and minds of Gazans.

Gaza/Hamas on the other hand has long been winning in information warfare and got Israel to react in the way they wanted.

If you ask me a ceasefire needs to be arranged and hostages returned. I can’t see Hamas returning hostages though since it’s probably the only thing keeping the leadership alive. Netanyahu needs to go along with any expectation of Gaza becoming Israeli territory, which seems to be his goal. Israel needs to deal with the issue that there’s a rapidly growing ultra-religious base immune from military service and who have 15 kids per family, which gives a radical minority increasing influence over the government.

At some point Hamas will need to be decapitated but it doesn’t need to be today or tomorrow. Do it when they least expect it. There needs to be a plan ready regarding who governs next- it can’t be Israel- perhaps a collation of Muslim nations with whom Israel has decent relations (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE, Bahrain). Israel does however bear some responsibility in helping rebuild and providing humanitarian assistance as best they can now and definitely once their military action has concluded. I think what’s absolutely clear is that foreign aid must be managed by an independent and responsible party so it cannot be squandered away on weapons and tunnels.

Even with the best intentions and most careful action (which I am not convinced has been the case here), there’s no getting around the the fact Israel is fighting a war in Gaza which is about 2x the size of DC with 3x the population and Hamas exploits civilian casualties. It’s urban warfare against an insurgent force that’s indiscernible from civilians.

Gaza admitted yesterday they have no idea how many have died at this point because the hospital data infrastructure has been destroyed. Clearly the number is high and even if we accept it their past figures and current estimates as a fair, they don’t say how many of those people were soldiers. 16-17 year old fighters are not uncommon either, if not even younger. Some western experts suggest about 50% of the later teen/early adult fatalities are fighters, at least early in the war.

This was always going to be a bloody, heinous, destructive war for Gaza in particular. But my concern since day 1 is that Israel will inflict irreparable damage on its global image. And that seems to be the case increasingly.

There’s no reason that with peace and the eventual institution of an healthy independent government, 20 years from now Gaza couldn’t be a wildly successful state, just like Israel. Perhaps Israel and global leadership should use strategy of incentives where Gaza moving in the right direction unlocks steps towards independent statehood. This was tried in the past, but perhaps it’s worth a shot again if new leadership can be established.

As awful as things have been between Israel and Palestinian, I don’t think continuous conflict has to be inevitable. It wasn’t so long ago the US and Japan had pretty atrocious relations to say the least. Pearl Harbor has its similarities to 10/6, the US in response pretty much leveled Japan with fire bombing. Now look at the strong relationship and success of Japan. This is despite a vast cultural divide and the fact the US unleashed nuclear weapons. Israel and Gaza have very unique circumstances, but if Japan can get over being nuked, Gaza and Israel can overcome their longstanding conflict. The same with US and Britain, US and Vietnam, Europe and Germany, etc.

What does “wapping things up” mean in this war? What's left to do? Invade Rafah, which many have characterized as a line Israel shouldn't cross? Gaza has already been destroyed. No matter what you say about inaccurate casualty numbers and civilian-soldiers, the scale of death and injury, much of it affecting children directly or indirectly, is staggering. And the loss of life Israel characterizes as inadvertent, including deaths of journalists, hostages, and aid workers, speaks to incompetence or lack of care by the IDF.

The goal of completely eradicating Hamas was unattainable from the outset. Sure, they're no longer able to repeat the October 7 attacks, but is Israel safer or better off than they were? And those incursions represented an immense failure by a Netanyahu government that was willing to support cash flow to Gaza and Hamas for years, betting the status quo would continue. Now Netanyahu is desperate to keep the war, or some semblance of it, going to avoid incarceration.

The analogy to U.S. - Japan relations doesn't fit here, IMO. The situation in the Middle East rests on many decades of animosity, fueled by the conviction of both sides that they have the right to hold and occupy land. I do agree that Israel and the Palestinians could prosper if they were to reach an agreement. It's not impossible, but it will be extremely challenging given the history.

Biden should call for an immediate cease-fire with clear-cut consequences if Israel doesn't comply. That doesn't have to mean a complete cessation of arms shipments - certainly provision of defensive weapons like Iron Dome should continue - but something needs to change. This should be accompanied by a concrete plan from the U.S. and other countries to provide massive aid, start to rebuild Gaza, and put in place a framework for non-Hamas governance on a path to a two-state solution.

 

[Citysnaps]

Biden should call for an immediate cease-fire with clear-cut consequences if Israel doesn't comply.

In the reporting of Biden's call with Netanyahu yesterday... it was interesting listening to how modal verb choices throughout the day morphed from should and could to must and can.

 

[Eric]

I wonder if this and future arms sales will be detrimental to Biden in the election. Not that there's an alternate sane choice.

"The Biden administration approved the transfer of thousands more bombs to Israel on the same day Israeli airstrikes in Gaza killed seven aid workers for the charity group World Central Kitchen, three U.S. officials told The Washington Post this week after the incident elicited global condemnation."

https://wapo.st/4aKpXvr

I think while in the bigger picture it may not be as impactful, in a closer election it could make a difference, it's really hard to say. But he definitely has a problem with the hard left on this one and I don't envy his position.

I personally agreed with supporting Israels's war effort in the beginning but can't see how we justify bolstering a military whose main goal has gone from defending the actions of an attack to the genocide of tens of thousands of innocent people. IMO Biden must put a stop to it.

 

[Citysnaps]

I think while in the bigger picture it may not be as impactful, in a closer election it could make a difference, it's really hard to say.

Yeah, I'm not clear on that. I don't think outraged Dems will vote for trump. But they may decide to not vote at all. Which is stupid. But there you go...

 

[Eric]

Yeah, I'm not clear on that. I don't think outraged Dems will vote for trump. But they may decide to not vote at all. Which is stupid. But there you go...

Exactly, which may as well just be a vote for Trump.

 

[Herdfan]

Honestly, it’s probably in Biden’s best political interest to get Israel to wrap things up. Let alone everyone else involved.

If this happens, we will be a long way from this being wrapped up:

CIA 'warns Iran will attack Israel within 48 hours' as revenge for huge strike

US Intelligence officials have branded Israel's strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria as "reckless" and fear a wider war in the Middle East.

www.the-express.com

Israel’s war cabinet meets over threat of ‘imminent’ attack by Iran

ISRAEL’S war cabinet met last night to discuss the threat of an “imminent” attack after Iran vowed revenge for a strike that killed several of its top commanders. Iran has accused…

www.the-sun.com

If you ask me a ceasefire needs to be arranged and hostages returned.

Do you think any are still alive? I'm not sure.

I personally agreed with supporting Israels's war effort in the beginning but can't see how we justify bolstering a military whose main goal has gone from defending the actions of an attack to the genocide of tens of thousands of innocent people. IMO Biden must put a stop to it.

I think we look at this too much as Americans. We sit here in relative peace. We don't have to teach our kids what an air raid siren is, or how to protect themselves against an incoming rocket. We simply don't have to worry about those things on a daily basis.

But how does an Israeli feel? Hamas has been an ongoing threat for a long time and I suspect the Israeli's want them eliminated more than they care what the world thinks.

 

[Citysnaps]

Hamas has been an ongoing threat for a long time and I suspect the Israeli's want them eliminated more than they care what the world thinks.

I get that, and also want to see hamas totally eliminated. But when Israeli leadership makes a choice that indiscriminately killing innocent civilians who are in the way is OK in order to quickly/efficiently destroy hamas, it makes Israeli leadership appear to be no better than hamas, imo.

 

[Eric]

I get that, and also want to see hamas totally eliminated. But when Israeli leadership makes a choice that indiscriminately killing innocent civilians who are in the way is OK in order to quickly/efficiently destroy hamas, it makes Israeli leadership appear to be no better than hamas, imo.

And it's beyond collateral damage, they're flat out killing innocent people by the tens of thousands. It's a slaughter and a shame that Israel won't even pull their punches long enough to get those suffering food, water or medical supplies. No civilized nation in the world should ever be supporting something this egregious.

 

[Herdfan]

I just wonder if how we feel would change if we lived in San Diego and some militant group that wanted to wipe us off the map was constantly launching rockets at us from Tiajuana.

How would we want our government to respond? Would we be OK with some civilian deaths if it meant the rockets stopped?

I get it is not an easy question.

 

[Citysnaps]

I just wonder if how we feel would change if we lived in San Diego and some militant group that wanted to wipe us off the map was constantly launching rockets at us from Tiajuana.

How would we want our government to respond? Would we be OK with some civilian deaths if it meant the rockets stopped?

I get it is not an easy question.

For starters... I would want our government to respond to the militant threat by not destroying 381 churches, 390 schools, and 30 hospitals.

In respecting and adherence to International Humanitarian Law (rules of war), I would expect some, a relatively small number, of innocent civilian deaths knowing that one can never expect 100% perfection 100% of the time when humans are involved.

 

[Eric]

I just wonder if how we feel would change if we lived in San Diego and some militant group that wanted to wipe us off the map was constantly launching rockets at us from Tiajuana.

How would we want our government to respond? Would we be OK with some civilian deaths if it meant the rockets stopped?

I get it is not an easy question.

I (nor anyone in their right mind) wouldn't us to blanket bomb the entire city the militant group is from. We have to draw a distinction here, I don't think anyone expected Israel not to take action but they've taken it way too far, targeted strikes and even a ground war makes sense under the circumstances but that's not what they're doing.

 

[MEJHarrison]

Would we be OK with some civilian deaths if it meant the rockets stopped?

I'd be happy the rockets stopped. I would not be OK with some civilian deaths. I would expect every measure be taken to avoid that. But things go wrong and accidents happen, so it feels unrealistic to expect perfection.

I think the situation we're discussing here is long past "some civilian deaths". Way, way past that. And there seems to be little to no effort being made to avoid those civilian deaths.

It's not an easy question and I'll admit a great deal of ignorance on my part. But what I'm seeing and hearing is not ok.

 

[AG_PhamD]

Do you think any are still alive? I'm not sure.

I suspect there are likely some who are still alive. I would assume many of those who were severely injured upon capture were unable to get adequate healthcare and died (ie the people who lost limbs at the concert when Hamas forced open the bomb-shelter they were hiding in and threw in a grenade). Next you have some who have probably been killed in air strikes along with those who known to have been accidentally killed during operations. Depending on how much centralized control there is over the people overlooking the hostages, some may have already been killed despite it not technically being ordered.

I don’t think it makes a lot of sense for Hamas to kill them, it‘s one of the few bargaining chips they actually have. Hamas will absolutely make a spectacle of killing hostages or when they decide to share such information, they’ve promised as much.

It’s hard to know what, if anything is happening behind the schemes in terms of providing proof of life. As I understand, publicly anyways, Hamas is not providing proof. I suspect this has more to do with strategic ambiguity than it does to suggest they’re all dead. That said, those that do remain probably don’t have the best chances of ever making it home alive.

So long as there are hostages, the upper echelon of Hamas has bargaining power and protection from Israel. If leadership dies, there won’t necessarily be anyone to negotiate with. Then there’s not incentive to keep the hostages alive either.

It’s important to keep in mind that there are still five Americans being held hostage by Hamas from October. I suspect they expect eventually the US to trade heaps money for them since that’s pretty much standard operating procedure these days.

As barbaric as Hamas is, they are by no means stupid. There’s no sense in taking hostages if you’re just going to kill them the next day.

As I recall 250 were taken, around were released, ~35 are known to be dead (at least some of these have been returned, in one case Hamas kept his head but eventually the family was able to obtain it). I think the number around 100-130 remain as hostages, but I would not be surprised to hear if half were actually dead.

I have always been under the impression the Israeli government is not treating the hostage return as a top 10 issue, the issue of Hamas has become existential for Israel and hostages are collateral damage, sad as it is to say. That’s not to say efforts won’t be made where possible, but it’s clearly far from the priority.

Maybe I’ve missed it (entirely posssible), but I haven’t heard much out of Biden, Harris, Blinken, Kirby, KJP, etc, etc about what efforts the US is taking to get our American citizens returned. I know they are pushing for a cease-fire deal that presumably would include hostages, but for months it seems like the administration has pretty much deferred the issue to Israel as their problem. And the recent push for a deal by Biden seems to have more to do with appeasing his base to rectify his crashing polls related directly to Gaza than anything to do with hostages. And it’s not like I’ve heard Trump or the republicans pontificate either about how they will arrange to get the hostages home if Biden won’t.

 

[AG_PhamD]

I'd be happy the rockets stopped. I would not be OK with some civilian deaths. I would expect every measure be taken to avoid that. But things go wrong and accidents happen, so it feels unrealistic to expect perfection.

I think the situation we're discussing here is long past "some civilian deaths". Way, way past that. And there seems to be little to no effort being made to avoid those civilian deaths.

It's not an easy question and I'll admit a great deal of ignorance on my part. But what I'm seeing and hearing is not ok.

I think we in the west and people of our generations have a completely flawed view of the hell that is warfare. Our military has become so sophisticated we expect pinprick strikes. That’s a lot easier to do when you’re fighting a regional war. The Gaza war is urban warfare against an insurgency that looks no different from civilians, and all of this is confined to an extremely dense city. It’s not like it’s western Ukraine where you have pretty defined borders between militaries, it’s clear who is military and who is not, etc.

There is no way many people are not getting caught in the crossfire, especially when they have nowhere to flee. Look at Syria- 500-650k civilian deaths between 2021 and 2024. The war on terror killed an estimated 500,000 civilians but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s higher.

People also need to understand civilian deaths are expected in war. Militaries have an obligation to avoid civilian casualties if possible, but deaths as collateral damage against valid military targets is not murder or a war crime.

That’s why Israel bombed the Iranian consulate. It appears high ranking Iranian military officials were operating out of the building- that’s not the purpose of a consulate. Thus the consulate became a valid military target despite ordinarily not being one. (The question of is this a good idea to do is a separate question entirely).

This whole situation I think is distorted, particularly by young adults) by this trendy western lens of looking at everything as a victim/victimizer, colonized/colonizer relationships. It’s not about right or wrong, what society values you want to uphold, the context of history, etc. it’s about making judgements based on inequality and seeming the weaker side as oppressed and the stronger side as the oppressor. It’s just a reductive way of looking at the world. And it’s incredibly ego and ethnocentric to graft one’s interpretation of the American experience onto every other situation in the world while not even bothering to try to learn about the historical complexities involved.

Neither Israel nor Palestine is innocent in this. Both sides have played victim and victimizer. Both sides need to take responsibility- Israel/Netanyahu can’t be pushing out settlements and propping up a terrorist regime for the sake of having a foil. He needs to go and he will. Meanwhile, Palestinians need to first hold Hamas accountable for the humanitarian crisis they have personally fostered for years and lack of freedom. It’s hard tor me to accept their complaints of oppression by Israel when clearly it is Hamas who is most responsible for affecting the day to day functioning and success of Gazan’s lives. And I think to call what has and is happening in this war a “genocide” is total ignorance of what genocide is. There have been numerous in history beyond the Holocaust- this is not a genocide, not yet anyways, what it is is the heinous reality of war and a tragedy.

One last point- no one really knows for sure but I’ve seen estimates suggesting 1 combatants death for every 2 civilians and that civilian deaths were high early on but have been dropping. So if 30k Palestinians have died, 2/3 are civilians. Hamas does not differentiate between militants and civilians. Looking at other wars, increasingly the proportion of civilians is usually far higher than combatants. Reportedly the war in Iraq had a 77% casualty rate and 75% in Korea. There are some exceptions (some of which may just be bad data or atypical warfare), but 60-75% seems fairly typical. Obviously the type of war at hand, environment, etc play a roll here as well as what constitutes casualties.

 

[AG_PhamD]

For starters... I would want our government to respond to the militant threat by not destroying 381 churches, 390 schools, and 30 hospitals.

In respecting and adherence to International Humanitarian Law (rules of war), I would expect some, a relatively small number, of innocent civilian deaths knowing that one can never expect 100% perfection 100% of the time when humans are involved.

Unfortunately if these locations are being used for non-humanitarian military purposes, they can be deemed fair game. Hamas has a very long history of using such locations to carry out military activities (including launching unguided rockets into civilian areas in Israel) to make retaliation more difficult and if/when it does, they can decry the inhumanity of Israel for bombing a school.

That said, Israel should be obligated to provide evidence that attacks on non-military infrastructure. Regardless of which war, it seems reasonable militaries be able to defend their actions, providing evidence that demonstrates why they decided to attack.

That’s not say mistakes can’t happen, like the recent WCK attack. I think it’s hard to believe they were “intentionally targeted” in the sense Israel wanted to kill WCK workers. 1. Israel has allowed WCK in Gaza to help in the humanitarian crisis. 2. WCK has also been providing aid to Israelis displaced by 10/6.

This mistakes seems almost identical to the US intelligence and military’s tragic mistake bombing a humanitarian worker and his many children delivering water during the Afghanistan withdrawal chaos.

At least the Israelis who made this alleged mistake have been fired and are being investigated. Meanwhile in the US i don’t think anyone lost their job. Gen McKenzie still has a job despite taking the full responsibility. Those Apache pilots who killed journalists (as shown in the cockpit video in the first ever Wikileaks case) were never punished.

I would not be surprised if Hamas fed bad intelligence to instigate these types of tragedies. It would be a great way to push propaganda. I think it’s likely they also say Israel up for some of these rather unimpressive hospital raids.

And this is the problem with war… regardless of anyones best intentions mistakes are unavoidable. Innocent people get caught up in the crossfire or worse become painted as targets inadvertently. And there’s always going to be people on both sides who have bad intentions.

War in history class is so often presented in such a clinical manner. We have a false expectation given our technology that wars can be carried out with a laser guided rockets from drone operated by a pilot 5000 miles away. That can only work in some cases (and proved incredibly detrimental for Obama who tried such detached war as strict doctrine). And just look at Ukraine/Russia- while smart weapons are used they’ve still largely reverted to WWI style trench warfare and artillery exchanges. Air defenses have become so good that airplanes have been relegated to the both sides’ back lines and now years into the war have still not been remotely decisive.

But now that we have the internet and 4k cell phone cameras, the 24 hour news cycle and social media, we’re able to experience war first hand in near real time like never before. And it’s not surprising it leaves a terrible taste in our mouths. Prior to this men went off to war, came home, and usually never spoke of the hell they witnessed.

It’s interesting too because on the flip side, you also have people who promote fighting wars at every turn for any reason, again having no idea what it’s like to experience war.

I don’t have military experience but have read a lot about WWII and later warfare- the technological history of war is facinating. I have spent a bit of time in Israel in my life- most notably in 2012 I learned what it’s like to have missiles falling out of the sky into your neighborhood, praying that the technological marvel that is the Iron Dome (brand new at the time- effectiveness not well proven) actually works. Meanwhile I’m watching my relatives raise their newborn baby in a bomb shelter questioning why they brought a child into this world. In the couple weeks i was there hundreds of rockets, missiles, and mortars were fired into Israel. So while I can’t say I’ve experienced combat, I know what it’s like to be in a war zone and know my experience was far far more mild than what others have faced. But I wouldn’t recommend it to anyone.

 

[AG_PhamD]

What does “wapping things up” mean in this war? What's left to do? Invade Rafah, which many have characterized as a line Israel shouldn't cross? Gaza has already been destroyed. No matter what you say about inaccurate casualty numbers and civilian-soldiers, the scale of death and injury, much of it affecting children directly or indirectly, is staggering. And the loss of life Israel characterizes as inadvertent, including deaths of journalists, hostages, and aid workers, speaks to incompetence or lack of care by the IDF.

The goal of completely eradicating Hamas was unattainable from the outset. Sure, they're no longer able to repeat the October 7 attacks, but is Israel safer or better off than they were? And those incursions represented an immense failure by a Netanyahu government that was willing to support cash flow to Gaza and Hamas for years, betting the status quo would continue. Now Netanyahu is desperate to keep the war, or some semblance of it, going to avoid incarceration.

The analogy to U.S. - Japan relations doesn't fit here, IMO. The situation in the Middle East rests on many decades of animosity, fueled by the conviction of both sides that they have the right to hold and occupy land. I do agree that Israel and the Palestinians could prosper if they were to reach an agreement. It's not impossible, but it will be extremely challenging given the history.

Biden should call for an immediate cease-fire with clear-cut consequences if Israel doesn't comply. That doesn't have to mean a complete cessation of arms shipments - certainly provision of defensive weapons like Iron Dome should continue - but something needs to change. This should be accompanied by a concrete plan from the U.S. and other countries to provide massive aid, start to rebuild Gaza, and put in place a framework for non-Hamas governance on a path to a two-state solution.

Wrap things up means figure out and exit strategy and execute it so you can end the hostilities, hopefully get the hostages back, begin moving forward.

The death toll is tragedy- as I pointed out many times. I don’t think it matters if it’s 10k or 50k or 100k. In an ideal world innocent people shouldn’t be dying and frankly I’d prefer no one have die including soldiers. They’re still someone’s father, brother, son. The reality is however this the consequence of large scale war in an environment like this- people living on top of each other with nowhere to flee to other than to shuffle around.

I am just frustrated by people’s complete ignorance when it comes to the reality of war and the ignorance that this is not the only ongoing war and frankly far from the worst. I’ve made my point clear already however that Israel needs to balance military ambitions with the optics- they know more than anyone they are held to totally different standard historically.

I think I’ve been pretty clear with my problems with Israel and Netanyahu and I think he will certainly be gone by the end of the year. There’s plenty of pressure (and quickly escalating) on Israel to be responsible, but where is the pressure on Hamas to release the hostages or to stop the incessant rocket attacks? 12,000 munitions between Oct 7 and Dec 27th alone. Let’s not forget here Hamas also bears some responsibility in deciding how this war ends too.

I think you missed my point with my Japan analogy… I said clearly the circumstances are different. What is similar however is the animosity itself and the seemingly irreconcilable cultural and ideological differences- not to mention totally divergent ideas on things like morality and honor. Concepts like kamikaze attacks and honor suicide were totally foreign. The spiritual affinity to the emperor, the incredibly inhumane treatment of POWs. FDR had held a lot of racist thoughts on the Japanese as did the general public, promoted in propaganda- unintelligent, barbaric, subhuman. Not to mention their battling refusal to surrender despite fire bombing the country and dropping a nuclear bomb. FDR wrote to his wife he didn’t think the Japanese could be reconciled. The Japanese of course had their own bigoted ideas about the US and Europeans similar to those common in the west at the time.

If you consider how deep the differences were, it’s kind of amazing things are what they are today. Given the horrors each side committed to the other, you’d think both sides would have no interest in working cooperatively. The US could have left Japan to rebuild itself alone or locked them into eternal occupation. Instead we helped rebuild, allowed them to govern themselves, and permitted them to rebuild their military, one or the most sophisticated on the planet.

Indeed Israel and Palestine have very different circumstances given the land conflict. But I would argue culturally, ideologically, morally, etc Jews and Muslims have hell of a lot more in common in life than early 20th Americans/Europeans and Japanese.

 

[GermanSuplex]

We need the steak salesman to fix things.

Sorry, I can’t have a serious discussion about this with talks of that f*cking guy mixed in. What people think he will add to world peace is beyond me, he almost got his VP killed.

But yeah, he will bring peace to the Jews and America as well.

This is a f****d situation. I’m 100% on the side of Israel, but the indiscriminate killing has to stop. It’s not fair terrorists do what they want and then Israel have to live up to some moral code while Hamas plays socccer with their decapitated heads. It’s easy to see the rage and the desire for Hamas to be wiped out.

But, we have a young and at times stupid left here. I am on the side of an immediate ceasefire too… I’m just not sure some of the people on the left are thinking this out…. just yelling “ceasefire” does nothing. You need a return of hostages, you need one of these Hamas-sheltering nations to engage somehow. And a proper two-state solution. None of that is happening overnight. Perhaps Israel should be doing ceasefire and aid assistance as a show of strength and control, which would ease the criticism as a “peace through strength” gesture. Maybe, I don’t know. I’d be happy if more criticism was leveled directly at Netanyahu and not Israel as a whole.

I’d also feel better if the steak guy wasn’t looming over the convo, a possible return to office (not happening!) adds a ridiculous dimension to this convo that we shouldn’t even need to have.