Russia-Ukraine

[Yoused]

I don’t think anyone predicted just how poorly this invasion would go for Russia.

Russia lost the SMO on the second day, as soon as the Ukrainians stood fast. Russia had expected to just roll right in and take ownership of Ukraine without measurable opposition, but once a battle started shaping up, suddenly Russia found themselves fighting a whole passel of countries instead of one little one.

 

[Macky-Mac]

Stalemate may have arrived in Bakmut, which has been reduced to a hellhole after half a year of Russia trying to seize it.....

"...Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin attempted to justify the Wagner Group’s lack of progress in Bakhmut, partially supporting ISW’s assessment that Russian forces in Bakhmut are culminating.[15] Russian state media outlet RIA Novosti amplified a December 31 interview with Prigozhin on January 3 in which Prigozhin stated that Wagner Group forces in Bakhmut are unable to break through Ukrainian defenses in Bakhmut.[16] Prigozhin stated that Wagner's offensive operations in Bakhmut are highly attritional because each house in Bakhmut is a “fortress,” that Ukrainians have defensive lines every 10 meters, and that Russian forces must clear building-by-building.[17]...."

from the ISW briefing for 1-3-2023

 

[AG_PhamD]

Biden will send Bradley Fighting Vehicles to Ukraine. And tanks could be next.

The U.S. so far has declined to send the Abrams tank. But the latest move could pave the way for sending more armor to Kyiv.

www.politico.com

The US will be sending Ukraine Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. Germany will be sending Marder IVFs and France is sending armored fighting vehicles. Good to see some offensive weapons, but it would be good to see some tanks- I imagine that will be the next step but probably won’t happen until one country takes that step. The UK apparently is considering this.

It seems a bit unlikely the US will be sending Abrams tanks. Considering they have turbine engines, there are probably not a ton of existing mechanics with that speciality to allow for relatively quick and easy adoption as opposed to a diesel powered tank. That said, training could occur and technicians from the aviation and power generation industry could be employed as similar engines are used. If I’m not mistaken, the US has been a little cagey who they sell Abrams to and which types of ammunition, and I’m pretty sure we don’t export any models with the depleted uranium armor.

 

[AG_PhamD]

Meanwhile in North Korea, I mean Russia, there is this disturbing trend…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1612896999287693334

 

[Huntn]

Meanwhile in North Korea, I mean Russia, there is this disturbing trend…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1612896999287693334

Virtually nothing surprises me from a broken bad country that has decided to flaunt it, hostile to it’s neighbors, a might makes right country who, if I have to spell it out, it’s leadership will push as far as it thinks it can get away with, in it’s war criminal way.

 

[AG_PhamD]

Virtually nothing surprises me from a broken bad country that has decided to flaunt it, hostile to it’s neighbors, a might makes right country who, if I have to spell it out, it’s leadership will push as far as it thinks it can get away with, in it’s war criminal way.

I think we can agree the US tends to be more patriotic than many other Western countries, but I have never seen the promotion of children vowing their lives to “defend” the country.
I think you once had a thread about the value of patriotism. My response was that it’s not necessarily a bad thing and can be valuable in unifying a country, but can go too far into something that is dangerous. This is an example of going too far.

Russia has put out some truly awful propaganda, like these examples:
1) Horrifically racist undertones


2) iPhone > Fathers life
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1604548265802096641?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

(And I thought the Russians said Americans are materialistic. And is it just me or does that look an awful lot like an American iPhone)

 

[Macky-Mac]

an interesting article from Aljazeera speculating on the future direction of Russian and Israeli relations, and what that might mean for the war in Ukraine

link;

"Will Israel and Russia forge closer ties under Netanyahu?​

Ukraine has expressed its disappointment in signals that the new Israeli government may establish closer ties with Russia...."

 

[Yoused]

Russia has apparently destroyed four Bradley fighting vehicles, before any were even delivered to Ukraine. Also, they have wiped out twice as many HIMARS rocket launchers as what Ukraine had.

 

[AG_PhamD]

an interesting article from Aljazeera speculating on the future direction of Russian and Israeli relations, and what that might mean for the war in Ukraine

link;

Indeed, Israel is in a bit of predicament given their complicated geopolitical issues with Iran and Syria, and how how Russia fits into that. Plus, there are a lot of Russians who live in Israel.

Ultimately, Israel is going to do what it believes it has to do for the best chances of survival. Iran in particular is very much considered an existential threat, in a very similar way to Russia is an existential threat to Ukraine.

Israel has certainly not endorsed Russia’s actions and has condemned them, but obviously has not provided explicit military aid. I think it’s somewhat questionable how much aid they have to give given their perpetual state of conflict. But its worth considering their so called “neutrality”, I don’t think it’s the most appropriate term, could ultimately be beneficial in respect to helping broker a peace deal.

The Biden-admin (and esp the Obama admin) and Israel have never quite been eye to eye. That’s nothing new. And for all the American left wing distaste of Netanyahu, I cannot fathom why they were so into Naftali Bennett. He ended up supporting very similar policies, which should not have been a surprise.

 

[AG_PhamD]

Russia has apparently destroyed four Bradley fighting vehicles, before any were even delivered to Ukraine. Also, they have wiped out twice as many HIMARS rocket launchers as what Ukraine had.

That’s fascinating, I wonder how they pulled that off. Time traveling super weapons I suppose.

I actually would not be surprised if at least Bradley’s had already found their way into Ukraine. It makes sense to announce the transfer after they’re already there. So I wouldn’t call it an impossibility, but it’s not news I would trust. The HIMARS claims are always pretty outlandish though.

My favorite was when they claimed to have destroyed a rooftop HIMARS… this really suggests the “high mobility” of the “High Mobility Artillary Rocket System”. Who knew those trucks could vertically traverse 5 story commi-block apartment buildings.

In reality, if anything it was some sort of stationary air defense system. A stationary, roof mounted HIMARS makes zero sense.

The FMTV truck chassis commonly used for HIMARS is also used for all sorts of transport applications- so it seems every time they blow one up they either assume or pretend it’s HIMARS. It seems unlikely they would ever be within most artillery range (that’s kinda their point) and tracking one would not be easy. I would imagine being such valuable targets they are escorted with some form of air defense.

 

[dada_dave]

That’s fascinating, I wonder how they pulled that off. Time traveling super weapons I suppose.

I actually would not be surprised if at least Bradley’s had already found their way into Ukraine. It makes sense to announce the transfer after they’re already there. So I wouldn’t call it an impossibility, but it’s not news I would trust.

The second tweet says the Russian claim of destroyed Bradleys was from September 4th. So nope, it was time travelers.

Also I think they are needing to be shipped and Ukrainians need to be trained. So sadly it’s going to be at least a few weeks if not a couple of months before they’re in any active theater of operations.

 

[Huntn]

Good read:

Ukraine's smart air defense threatens one of Russia's most advanced jets, leaving it too scared to use them, experts say

Russia is holding back on using its advanced Su-57s over Ukrainian airspace, UK intelligence said earlier this week.

www.businessinsider.com

I think we can agree the US tends to be more patriotic than many other Western countries, but I have never seen the promotion of children vowing their lives to “defend” the country.
I think you once had a thread about the value of patriotism. My response was that it’s not necessarily a bad thing and can be valuable in unifying a country, but can go too far into something that is dangerous. This is an example of going too far.

Russia has put out some truly awful propaganda, like these examples:
1) Horrifically racist undertones


2) iPhone > Fathers life
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1604548265802096641?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

(And I thought the Russians said Americans are materialistic. And is it just me or does that look an awful lot like an American iPhone)

The issue is when patriotism is based on bull shit lies to make the other side look like the bad people in the equation, and obscure your own monsters. In Putin, we have a more polished, Stalinist monster with an arguably substandard army and nukes in his arsenal.

 

[AG_PhamD]

Good read:

Ukraine's smart air defense threatens one of Russia's most advanced jets, leaving it too scared to use them, experts say

Russia is holding back on using its advanced Su-57s over Ukrainian airspace, UK intelligence said earlier this week.

www.businessinsider.com

The issue is when patriotism is based on bull shit lies to make the other side look like the bad people in the equation, and obscure your own monsters. In Putin, we have a more polished, Stalinist monster with an arguably substandard army and nukes in his arsenal.

Indeed.

I’m curious about how some of these ultra patriotic Russians square the circle of their propaganda… on the one hand Ukrainians are evil Nazi terrorists that must eliminated, on the other, Ukraine must be invaded so it’s people can be saved from the sphere of Western influence.

Also worth mentioning, for all the Russian concern for Ukraine becoming part of NATO and a launch pad for nuclear weapons, why don’t these same concerns exist for Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia? And what about the 22ish ballistic nuclear missile submarines (between US, UK, and France) that can float up to Russia’s borders?

 

[dada_dave]

Indeed.

I’m curious about how some of these ultra patriotic Russians square the circle of their propaganda… on the one hand Ukrainians are evil Nazi terrorists that must eliminated, on the other, Ukraine must be invaded so it’s people can be saved from the sphere of Western influence.

Which is gay, liberal, decadent, effeminate and basically as opposed to Nazisim as it can be.

Also worth mentioning, for all the Russian concern for Ukraine becoming part of NATO and a launch pad for nuclear weapons, why don’t these same concerns exist for Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia? And what about the 22ish ballistic nuclear missile submarines (between US, UK, and France) that can float up to Russia’s borders?

For those who are deeply into it? It’s similar to Trumpism and other cult-like behavior - basically you as the cult leader/promoter throw out all these different narratives and the individual picks which one(s) they like and either ignore the ones that clearly contradict their preferred one(s) or see the attack on those contradictions as an attack on themselves and go deeper. It takes trust and a personal relationship to break that hold and even then it can be very difficult. It requires an emotional rather than a rational appeal. A mistake people make assuming that such people are stupid or naive, and some are, but most are desperately searching for an identity to make them feel better/like they belong/like they’re special/whatever hole that’s gnawing at them.

For most others, the non ultras, it’s a matter of keeping their heads down, don’t think about it, and just try to survive. This is not to suggest that they necessarily disagree with whatever propaganda is being spewed in general (the war that is not a war is good and we’re in the right), but it’s not something they are going to think deeply about or engage with.

That’s my take anyway from my limited knowledge on the subject of cults - whether patriotic or religious.

 

[dada_dave]

Oops I accidentally posted twice somehow, sorry!

So I’ll post something else:

A real Ukrainian unit patch

 

[AG_PhamD]

Which is gay, liberal, decadent, effeminate and basically as opposed to Nazisim as it can be.



For those who are deeply into it? It’s similar to Trumpism and other cult-like behavior - basically you as the cult leader/promoter throw out all these different narratives and the individual picks which one(s) they like and either ignore the ones that clearly contradict their preferred one(s) or see the attack on those contradictions as an attack on themselves and go deeper. It takes trust and a personal relationship to break that hold and even then it can be very difficult. It’s an elation Al than rational appeal. A mistake people make assuming that such people are stupid or naive, and some are, but most are desperately searching for an identity to make them feel better/like they belong/like they’re special/whatever hole that’s gnawing at them.

For most others, the non ultras, it’s a matter of keeping their heads down, don’t think about it, and just try to survive. This is not to suggest that they necessarily disagree with whatever propaganda is being spewed in general (the war that is not a war is good and we’re in the right), but it’s not something they are going to think deeply about or engage with.

That’s my take anyway from my limited knowledge on the subject of cults - whether patriotic or religious.

Nazis… the people who invaded land that was not theirs that they felt entitled to, who promoted the destruction of cultures believing theirs was superior, who felt justified in their actions because of how the rest of Europe treated them, who imprisoned/tortured/killed dissidents, who were extremely homophobic even for their time, etc. This is definitely not what Russia is doing.

This is one example of Russia’s commonly used propaganda tactic of accusing others of exactly what they themselves are doing.

My question was rhetorical, but I agree with your assessment. I however generally disagree with the use of the word “Trumpian” to describe certain unsavory behaviors, in this case certain authoritarian behaviors. It implies such negative traits/behaviors never existed before or should be exclusively attributed to him. But that’s just me being pedantic.

 

[dada_dave]

Nazis… the people who invaded land that was not theirs that they felt entitled to, who promoted the destruction of cultures believing theirs was superior, who felt justified in their actions because of how the rest of Europe treated them, who imprisoned/tortured/killed dissidents, who were extremely homophobic even for their time, etc. This is definitely not what Russia is doing.

This is one example of Russia’s commonly used propaganda tactic of accusing others of exactly what they themselves are doing.

My question was rhetorical, but I agree with your assessment. I however generally disagree with the use of the word “Trumpian” to describe certain unsavory behaviors, in this case certain authoritarian behaviors. It implies such negative traits/behaviors never existed before or should be exclusively attributed to him. But that’s just me being pedantic.

I only meant it in its similarities with how multiple competing narratives can coexist within the same propaganda bubble despite being contradictory. We saw that a lot with Trump and it’s recent enough and I think caught a lot of people off guard here in the US. But you’re right the technique is older than Trump. He’s just one of the most recent, most effective, American purveyors of it.

 

[AG_PhamD]

I only meant it in its similarities with how multiple competing narratives can coexist within the same propaganda bubble despite being contradictory. We saw that a lot with Trump and it’s recent enough and I think caught a lot of people off guard here in the US. But you’re right the technique is older than Trump. He’s just one of the most recent, most effective, American purveyors of it.

Yes, agreed- the dartboard method of throwing everything at the wall and seeing what sticks. I think a great example of that would be Trump’s defense of classified documents.

In the broader context of politics, contradictions however are quite common, especially when it comes to expectations and holding people accountable… in other words hypocrisy. We are all well aware of how both sides inconsistently apply standards.

I think Trumpian best describes the unique constellation of Trump’s general personality and how he interacts with others- the boisterous and often antagonistic attitude, using humor/humiliation to denigrate his opponents, the over-the-top hyperbole, the grandiose sense of self, etc… things that historically often impede a politician’s success, until Trump. And indeed some have tried to replicate or appropriate this attitude to varying degrees of success- both personally and politically.

 

[AG_PhamD]

Truly remarkable gaslighting by the German Government


For some time they have been saying the decision of sending German-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine needs to be made with the support of the alliance… despite UK signalling they will likely send Challenger tanks and countries like Poland and Finland wanting to send some their Leopards but are currently being barred by Germany. Leopards by far are the most practical solution. And it’s worth noting, many T-72’s were sent earlier in the war, so why is this any different?

The worst outcome of this war for Europe second to Russia outright conquering Ukraine is a weakly negotiated settlement that enables Russia to once again invade its neighbors several years down the road.

I can’t help but think Germany wants to stay in Russia’s relatively good graces and have business as usual with Russia the moment the war ends.

 

[Huntn]

Nazis… the people who invaded land that was not theirs that they felt entitled to, who promoted the destruction of cultures believing theirs was superior, who felt justified in their actions because of how the rest of Europe treated them, who imprisoned/tortured/killed dissidents, who were extremely homophobic even for their time, etc. This is definitely not what Russia is doing.

This is one example of Russia’s commonly used propaganda tactic of accusing others of exactly what they themselves are doing.

My question was rhetorical, but I agree with your assessment. I however generally disagree with the use of the word “Trumpian” to describe certain unsavory behaviors, in this case certain authoritarian behaviors. It implies such negative traits/behaviors never existed before or should be exclusively attributed to him. But that’s just me being pedantic.

Simply said, they existed before, but Trump illustrates the exaggerated downhill trend embraced by the GOP base in 2016, for the win at any cost, cost to our Nation and our souls.

Allow me to elaborate.
Trumpian, is attributed to Mr Shithead, because he is the perfect example of a tragic loss in responsible, honest standards, who was the tip of the Fascist Spear located within the Republican Party that as a political self preservation strategy is trying to pierce the heart of our democracy, killing it, all as part and parcel of the predominant tendency in today’s GOP tactic of cheating to win at all costs, wholesale reliance on fabrications and self serving fantasies designed to fool the suckers or win over like minded self servers, and to rationalize and legitimize unacceptable, immoral, and illegal behavior to hold political power.

If we can’t win by the rules, we change the rules.
Example 1: Equal voting rights are bad for the GOP.
I frequently say the shithead politicians such as Green, Gaetz, Jordan, Desantis, and now Santos, etc, are just symptoms of the real problem, which is districts with Republican majorities who think that knifing Democracy and equal rights, along with despicable leadership is the best way to serve their personal needs.

In retrospect, I can’t look back 40 years and say I ever imagined these kind of ignorant in many cases racist clowns being held up as good leadership. As a rule, they got elected because they frequently use suitably negative characterizations such as MAGA, and give US our White Bread Country back. A Democracy where White Privilege no longer exists is BAD.

Then you can ask out loud, WHAT THE FUCK, and wonder about just how doomed we are as a Nation if this kind of self serving behavior continues to predominate in a diverse Nation.