Russia-Ukraine

[AG_PhamD]

They are making Ukraine pay in a most war crime like manner, because Ukraine said Fuck You Ass Holes, you are not going to have your way with us! I am far from an expert, but what does the United Nations do, when a war criminal country sits on the Security Council?

Perhaps the even bigger question is what does the UN do when you have a “war criminal country” is also a permanent member of the UNSC and holds veto power?

The answer is absolutely nothing. There is no mechanism to remove permanent members like Russian.

The UN to a large extent is and always has always been a joke. That’s not to say they haven’t made accomplishments, but they’re usually a useless organization when it comes to the most serious and complex matters. (And why is it so often that some of the counties with the worst offenders of human rights are on the human rights council? Some notable current members include Gambia, Somolia, Qatar, and Honduras. Seriously? It was actually surprising kind of (albeit kinda hypocritical considering some of these members) to see Russia was suspended from their position of the HRC.)

 

[AG_PhamD]

Certainly Belarus has been trying to stay out of the fighting, but in the initial invasion last February, Russian troops that were there on "training exercises" invaded from Belarus. And currently there are additional Russian forces that are on "training exercises" in Belarus, which is certainly part of the concern and speculation that they're now planning something.

Yes, they’ve been a launchpad for both ground and air attacks this entire time. They have also given tanks and other weapons to Russia. They certainly are not innocent actors in this, which is why sanctions have also hit them. The Russians keep up with military activities in Belarus so they can divert Ukrainian resources to defending their shared border. Lusachenko is clearly loyal to Putin and has do the bare minimum to keep Putin somewhat appeased, but also doesn’t want to have to go war.

 

[Colstan]

 

[Yoused]

Another Russian rich guy falls out a window to his death, this one in India. Local police see nothing suspicious about the incident – presumably because the defenestration of Russian oligarchs has simply become a normal, expected thing.

 

[Yoused]

Vlad says that he is ready to negotiate. Not sure what he expects to gain (perhaps fewer attacks on Russian military bases). The shift in the make-up of the US government may seem potentially favorable to him, but the House cannot really force State or the President to the long, long table.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Vlad says that he is ready to negotiate. Not sure what he expects to gain (perhaps fewer attacks on Russian military bases). The shift in the make-up of the US government may seem potentially favorable to him, but the House cannot really force State or the President to the long, long table.

I suspect that he may hope to gain time, time that will allow him to regroup, - see off possible domestic challengers - and allow his battered and bruised forces time to recover, before deciding what to do, such as launching a fresh assault or attack on Ukraine.

 

[Macky-Mac]

I suspect that he may hope to gain time, time that will allow him to regroup, - see off possible domestic challengers - and allow his battered and bruised forces time to recover, before deciding what to do, such as launching a fresh assault or attack on Ukraine.

I suspect he's already decided on a fresh assault after getting time for Russia to actually prepare for war......something they failed to do while believing the special military floperation would be a huge and quick success

 

[lizkat]

I suspect that he may hope to gain time, time that will allow him to regroup, - see off possible domestic challengers - and allow his battered and bruised forces time to recover, before deciding what to do, such as launching a fresh assault or attack on Ukraine.

Well since one reads that Russia is down to troops resupply only from conscription and emptying the prisons of warm bodies able to walk, negotiation might be a very good idea. One can barely imagine how little enthusiasm such forces would have in advancing Russia's interests abroad in the dead of winter, so clearly they are for show while he tries to buy time and hopes for concessions from Ukraine.

But yes to use the time to look to his domestic fortunes, also a good idea. Since Putin made it a crime even to criticize the state (a conveniently vague statute), it must be a bit difficult to take accurate popular soundings, to say the least. So he needs to cultivate popular opinion more directly, from other than photo ops taken at end of a long table with his ministers at the other end. He used to be out and about at openings of museums and parks or whatever, reminding people of the upside of the Russian homeland, the beauty, the generosity of spirit and all that. Bit hard to keep that going what with this "special military operation" coming up on a year and conscripts still shipping out while coffins make the return trip.

 

[Yoused]

I suspect that he may hope to gain time, time that will allow him to regroup

The evidence suggests that three decades of the Russian MIC kleptocracy have rendered its armed forces an international punchline. Over on another forum, we have a sitcom "in development" in which a crack team of Ukrainian commandos set out to bollix up Russian military operations only to arrive just in time to see the Russians screwing themselves over before the commandos have a chance to carry out their plan.

Yes, we can imagine that Vlad wants to buy some time. But can he buy enough? A decade to undo everything that is wrong with the Russian military, in the face of continuing international sanctions, might still leave him short of what he needs, going on toward his eighties.

 

[Agent47]

Vlad says that he is ready to negotiate. Not sure what he expects to gain (perhaps fewer attacks on Russian military bases). The shift in the make-up of the US government may seem potentially favorable to him, but the House cannot really force State or the President to the long, long table.

Well, by negotiate he means „the west should accept the new reality“; i.e. what he actually wants is the west accepts that the annexed regions, including the Krimean peninsula, is now russian territory.

 

[Cmaier]

Well, by negotiate he means „the west should accept the new reality“; i.e. what he actually wants is the west accepts that the annexed regions, including the Krimean peninsula, is now russian territory.

Das stimmt.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Well, by negotiate he means „the west should accept the new reality“; i.e. what he actually wants is the west accepts that the annexed regions, including the Krimean peninsula, is now russian territory.

The irony is, that if he (Mr Putin) had not launched his invasion of Ukraine last February, it is entirely possible that he actually could have achieved some version of this (desired, for him) outcome.

Had the invasion not occurred, I suspect (strongly) that - ultimately - the eventual solution would have been some version of two Ukraines, and that much diplomatic and political effort would have been expended in an attempt to achieve such an outcome (above all, much energy and effort would have gone into reconciling the Ukrainians to this outcome) which would have taken the form of some sort of political architecture designed to express the existence of two Ukraines.

However, the invasion (special military operation) has completely put paid to that.

 

[Huntn]

The man is a fountain of unique and fresh inspiration “Commrades, we are liberating Ukraine from under Nazi control, Yes! Understand?“

 

[Cmaier]

https://www.bfm.ru/news/515973

Good news, everybody! Yeah, your Russian bank’s ios app has been banned from the App Store, but all you have to do is bring your phone to the bank and we’ll…install it for you. Yep, we’ll just side-load that bad boy right onto your iPhone for free!

 

[Agent47]

So what exactly are they doing? Installing a web version?

 

[Cmaier]

So what exactly are they doing? Installing a web version?

I suspect they are misusing enterprise certificates and side-loading.

 

[Colstan]

The man is a fountain of unique and fresh inspiration “Commrades, we are liberating Ukraine from under Nazi control, Yes! Understand?“

The Azov battalion of "Nazis" are currently happily dancing with Jews in Israel. I'm still not sure how Uncle Putin sold this bill of goods to his people, but apparently in his bizarro world, you can be the only country in the world, besides Israel, to have previously elected both a Jewish President and Jewish Prime Minister at the same time, yet still be anti-semitic fascists. It's almost like Putin didn't think this whole endeavor out too well. Oh, and not just Jewish Nazis, but Jewish Nazi drug addicts, apparently.

 

[Agent47]

I suspect they are misusing enterprise certificates and side-loading.

Ah, right, didn‘t think of that. Hopefully Apple revokes the certificates

 

[Yoused]

well … boom

​

 

[AG_PhamD]

well … boom

​

Truly astounding- the incompetence, negligence, stupidity, and/or hubris of Russian military. To house hundreds of soldiers all in one building, while storing explosives in/around said building, in contested territory, and within the known range of HIMARS defies any sense of logic or reason. Last I saw Russia claims 89 dead, Ukraine is saying 400-500 dead and hundreds wounded, many severely. I think all numbers in war require some degree of skepticism, but in this case it’s hard to believe anyone survived looking at the aftermath.

I don’t think anyone predicted just how poorly this invasion would go for Russia. I do think we may be getting to a point where this could become the start of a prolonged stalemate. Aside HIMARS and a few other odds and ends, we really haven’t provided much in terms of advanced offensive weapons which will probably be necessary to drive out Russia- or at least do it sooner rather than later. It’s possible Russia runs out of weapons before Ukraine does, but it would seem unwise to count on that as the sole strategy.