Russia-Ukraine

[Cmaier]

Those are both certainly possible. But still, we want this war to end earlier rather than later. I understand the stated reasons the US doesn't want to supply Ukraine the M1 MBT. But if it takes the US supplying, say, one company of M1's (14 tanks, the same as the number of Challengers the UK agreed to send) to give Germany the cover it needs to allow a couple of hundred Leopards to be relased to Ukraine, that seems to be woth it.

You can bet that Germany will insist on a 1-for-1 situation.

 

[theorist9]

You can bet that Germany will insist on a 1-for-1 situation.

You may be right; I myself would be reluctant to speak with such certainty on this matter. We can revist this if and when Germany makes its final decision.

 

[Agent47]

You can bet that Germany will insist on a 1-for-1 situation.

Depends on who is going to prevail. Pretty much the whole German government pleads in favor of delivering Leopards. Just not Scholz.

 

[dada_dave]

You can bet that Germany will insist on a 1-for-1 situation.

The other countries in Europe will tell the Germans to go stuff themselves if they tried that. Apparently they’re pretty close to doing that anyway. It’s claimed that training of Ukrainians on Leopard 2s has already started.

 

[theorist9]

Glad to see this. I was hoping Zelensky would be able to leverage both the substantial political capital he now holds, as well as the national unity from the war, to help change Ukraine's endemic culture of corruption—and that he would take steps to do this during the war, when his leverage is higest, rather than waiting until afterwards.

If he's not successful, a significant portion of the reconstruction money that comes in after Ukraine wins will be wasted, and a unique chance to set Ukraine on a different path will have been lost.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...iftly-confront-ukraine-corruption-2023-01-22/

 

[theorist9]

Progress:

"...in an apparent shift in Germany's position, foreign minister Annalena Baerbock said her government would not block Poland if it were to send its Leopard 2 tanks without German approval."

Berlin not blocking export of tanks to Ukraine, EU diplomat says

Germany is not blocking the re-export of Leopard tanks to Ukraine, the European Union's top diplomat said on Monday, after Poland vowed to send some as long as other countries did too.

www.reuters.com

 

[dada_dave]

Progress:

"...in an apparent shift in Germany's position, foreign minister Annalena Baerbock said her government would not block Poland if it were to send its Leopard 2 tanks without German approval."

Berlin not blocking export of tanks to Ukraine, EU diplomat says

Germany is not blocking the re-export of Leopard tanks to Ukraine, the European Union's top diplomat said on Monday, after Poland vowed to send some as long as other countries did too.

www.reuters.com

Now the Germans are partially walking that back.

“That can also be used for offensive purposes …” no shit, a tank? I suppose that depends on how offensive Germany finds Ukraine retaking its own de jure territory back. Just absolute wankers.

 

[Cmaier]

Now the Germans are partially walking that back.



“That can also be used for offensive purposes …” no shit, a tank? I suppose that depends on how offensive Germany finds Ukraine retaking its own de jure territory back. Just absolute wankers.

At the same time, Poland is now saying it’s giving the tanks, whether or not Germany gives permission.

Poland ups pressure to send German-made tanks to Ukraine — Guardian US

PM Mateusz Morawiecki says Poland will ask for Germany’s go-ahead but answer is of ‘secondary importance’

apple.news

 

[dada_dave]

At the same time, Poland is now saying it’s giving the tanks, whether or not Germany gives permission.

Poland ups pressure to send German-made tanks to Ukraine — Guardian US

PM Mateusz Morawiecki says Poland will ask for Germany’s go-ahead but answer is of ‘secondary importance’

apple.news

Oh yes, and the Americans apparently promising that if the Germans get pissy and refuse to sell parts/equipment in the future American arms industry will step in. Basically the Germans are simply destroying their own defense industry.

And then there’s this, I haven’t translated yet, though I think you can read it natively.

 

[Cmaier]

Oh yes, and the Americans apparently promising that if the Germans get pissy and refuse to sell parts/equipment in the future American arms industry will step in. Basically the Germans are simply destroying their own defense industry.

View attachment 21461

And then there’s this, I haven’t translated yet, though I think you can read it natively.

View attachment 21462

Essentially says that the US has been saying all along that tying German deliveries to USA deliveries won’t fly - the USA has given a lot more than Germany to Ukraine, including lots of novel weapons.

 

[Agent47]

Scholz is embarrassing. One can only wonder why. So irrational...

 

[Cmaier]

US finalizing plans to send Abrams tanks to Ukraine, US officials say | CNN Politics

The Biden administration is finalizing plans to send US-made Abrams tanks to Ukraine and could make an announcement as soon as this week, according to three US officials familiar with the deliberations.

www.cnn.com

US going to send Ukraine Abrams tanks.

Wonder if they’ll also send the ignition keys

 

[dada_dave]

Scholz is embarrassing. One can only wonder why. So irrational...

US finalizing plans to send Abrams tanks to Ukraine, US officials say | CNN Politics

The Biden administration is finalizing plans to send US-made Abrams tanks to Ukraine and could make an announcement as soon as this week, according to three US officials familiar with the deliberations.

www.cnn.com

US going to send Ukraine Abrams tanks.

Wonder if they’ll also send the ignition keys

And Germany is not only going to agree that partner nations can send Leopards but will do so as well if the rumors are to be believed. So Scholz did all that PR train wreck for nothing … maybe internal SPD politics?

 

[Cmaier]

And Germany is not only going to agree that partner nations can send Leopards but will do so as well if the rumors are to be believed. So Scholz did all that PR train wreck for nothing … maybe internal SPD politics?

Das muss die berühmte deutsche Effizienz sein.

 

[dada_dave]

Essentially says that the US has been saying all along that tying German deliveries to USA deliveries won’t fly - the USA has given a lot more than Germany to Ukraine, including lots of novel weapons.

The most interesting part of that quote is it makes it seems like the small glide bombs are on their way whereas the previous leaks said it could 9 months to ramp up production and deliver to Ukraine. Makes me wonder if those leaks were misdirection or this part of the quote was …

 

[dada_dave]

Das muss die berühmte deutsche Effizienz sein.

Indeed

 

[Cmaier]

The most interesting part of that quote is it makes it seems like the small glide bombs are on their way whereas the previous leaks said it could 9 months to ramp up production and deliver to Ukraine. Makes me wonder if those leaks were misdirection or this part of the quote was …

Well, in any case, it’s welcome news that we’re getting serious.

 

[AG_PhamD]

Oh yes, and the Americans apparently promising that if the Germans get pissy and refuse to sell parts/equipment in the future American arms industry will step in. Basically the Germans are simply destroying their own defense industry.

View attachment 21461

And then there’s this, I haven’t translated yet, though I think you can read it natively.

View attachment 21462

Agreed.

Switzerland has been refusing to allow Germany to re-export the ammunition for the Gerard air defense systems to Ukraine. Apparently no one else makes this particular ammunition. The Swiss claim they will not allow exports to a war zone, despite having done this many times in the past (ie Afghanistan).

You can bet countries will be far less inclined to buy Swiss or German made weapons if they cannot be relied upon during a war either to supply more weapons/ammo or allow exports to allies in need. IMO the Swiss exports is bad enough in this case, but Germany’s wishy washy stance is somehow even worse.

It sounds like Germany has approved training of Ukrainian forces on the Leopard 2- though I’m not sure there is a legal requirement for such approval. I think we can infer that requests for export from 3rd party countries will be approved. Finally.

I suppose the last question is will Germany be providing Leopards themselves. I think it’s far less significant question at this moment considering there’s plenty of other nations willing to provide their own. If they chose not to, fine, but they shouldn’t be stopping others.

If they don’t want to export, they should just say it though rather than play these games like “only if the US donated Abrams tanks”.

The Abrams was never a remotely practical option for Ukraine. Perhaps one of the best reasons to choose the Leopard is that there are numerous repair facilities across Europe, including right over the boarder in Poland, who are able to repair Leopards. That and the fact it makes no sense to send 17 completely different tank models. Ukraine is already a logistical nightmare when it comes to supplying and maintaining the vast array of vehicles they are using and mix of Soviet, NATO, and non-standardized equipment and ammo.

 

[dada_dave]

Agreed.

Switzerland has been refusing to allow Germany to re-export the ammunition for the Gerard air defense systems to Ukraine. Apparently no one else makes this particular ammunition. The Swiss claim they will not allow exports to a war zone, despite having done this many times in the past (ie Afghanistan).

You can bet countries will be far less inclined to buy Swiss or German made weapons if they cannot be relied upon during a war either to supply more weapons/ammo or allow exports to allies in need. IMO the Swiss exports is bad enough in this case, but Germany’s wishy washy stance is somehow even worse.

It sounds like Germany has approved training of Ukrainian forces on the Leopard 2- though I’m not sure there is a legal requirement for such approval. I think we can infer that requests for export from 3rd party countries will be approved. Finally.

I suppose the last question is will Germany be providing Leopards themselves. I think it’s far less significant question at this moment considering there’s plenty of other nations willing to provide their own. If they chose not to, fine, but they shouldn’t be stopping others.

If they don’t want to export, they should just say it though rather than play these games like “only if the US donated Abrams tanks”.

The Abrams was never a remotely practical option for Ukraine. Perhaps one of the best reasons to choose the Leopard is that there are numerous repair facilities across Europe, including right over the boarder in Poland, who are able to repair Leopards. That and the fact it makes no sense to send 17 completely different tank models. Ukraine is already a logistical nightmare when it comes to supplying and maintaining the vast array of vehicles they are using and mix of Soviet, NATO, and non-standardized equipment and ammo.

If the current rumors are true apparently we are sending Abrams and the Germans are sending Leopards themselves as well. Pour one out for the Ukrainian logistics officers.

Edit: I mean for a logistician having the problem of trying to supply, maintain, and keep trained personnel available for lots of different weaponry is a better problem to have than not having weapons at all but it’s still a problem they’ll have to solve. No doubt the Ukrainians will, it’s amazing what people can accomplish when their lives depend on it and the Ukrainians have proven to be resourceful and adaptable. But still: Challengers, all the Leopard variants, and Abrams - heck they might as well add Lecercs at this point …although I suppose the already gave the AMX recon/light tanks

Edit 2: and now there’s a report that the Swiss are going to let others deliver Swiss made weapons to Ukraine. I guess they realized as we (and just about everyone else) wrote above that they were harming themselves as well … let see

I dunno how the Swiss government works and who else has to say yes or this is a done deal, but it’s a very good step.

Edit 3: and the US is going to increase 155mm artillery production 6 fold over the next 2 years

 

[Yoused]

problems

Reports of a fresh scandal in Ukraine, which has a long history of shaky governance … “There are already personnel decisions - some today, some tomorrow - regarding officials at various levels in ministries and other central government structures, as well as in the regions and in law enforcement,” Mr Zelensky said in his nightly video address on Monday. Several Ukrainian media outlets have reported that cabinet ministers and senior officials could be sacked imminently.

This comes after anti-corruption police on Sunday said they had detained the deputy infrastructure minister on suspicion of receiving a $400,000 kickback over the import of generators last September, an allegation the minister denies. A newspaper investigation accused the defence ministry of overpaying suppliers for soldiers’ food. The supplier has said it made a technical mistake and no money had changed hands.​

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