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AG_PhamD

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Skripal, the incident that was in the news for the super lethal novachock poison? The one where it’s so deadly that prior to the hazmat suits for the cameras people were just openly touching the supposedly poisoned door handle without protection?

Leman, I have pages and pages of Skripal notes. I didn’t even know Hersh reported on it until this thread.

News at the time were reporting that it’s a novel super secret poison that only Russia knows how to make, yet I have a book on my bookshelf from nearly twenty years ago discussing it amongst many other soviet era poisons and how the Soviet program worked from a defector.

If that was indeed novachik, both Skripals would be dead, it is *insanely* toxic. Unless they were somehow poisoned in the parts per billion, which neither a door handle nor the alleged perfume bottle sprayer that was the delivery method would be able to do. Frankly, an aerosolized application of it would have killed the person spraying it in minutes. I find it hard to believe that one of the most surveilled places on the planet (cameras) didn’t see a guy in a hazmat suit walking around towards the Skripal house, because if he wasn’t wearing that level of protection he’d be dead…if the spray bottle story has any merit.

I’m having friends over but if I remember to later I can expand on the Skripal incident, but in real time I was paying attention to how the story was rolling out. It didn’t add up to my eye and that assessment had nothing to do with Sy Hersh.

Attached is the super-secret-no-one-knows-about-it chemical composition of novichock.View attachment 21776

I’m not sure about the claims of investigators touching the door handles, but at least a few of the first responders did suffer symptoms, including one of the investigators requiring weeks of hospitalization.

One of the goals of designing poisons actually is safety. Typically you don’t want a position that kills the people handling it. This includes Novichok which is a binary weapon, meaning two or more components must be combined in order for it to be toxic.

Novichok’s mechanism of action is essentially the same as other organophosphates (such as Sarin or many pesticides) which inhibit acetylcholinesterase and kill by paralyzing one’s diaphragm, inhibiting breathing. Like other organophosphates, it can be treated with drugs like atropine and pralidoxomine and others. It may be possible to provide some degree of prophylaxis to those dispensing Novichok.

There have been at least a couple other examples of Novick survivors including one of the scientists involved with its development. It’s also worth noting Novichok works best when inhaled or ingested. Topical absorption though the skin will reduce the speed and efficacy- especially the fingers and palms which have thicker skin.

Killing people covertly with poison I think tends to be a lot harder than people might expect. You have to get enough of it into the person for a long enough duration, without them receiving medical help and ideally not having them able to easily identify the substance (or it’s presumed existence) to target treatment.



As for the pipeline story by Hirsch, I’m not buying it. There’s just too much stuff that doesn’t make sense or doesn’t add up, not to mention zero evidence or sources. I’m not ruling out that the United States was involved, but I don’t think this is the story.

Let’s not forget either that Russia claimed it was the UK that blew it up.

There are very reasonable explanations that point the finger at a number of different countries. The one thing I have difficulty with is if it was Russia who did it, why wouldn’t the investigators just say that?

I also don’t think this operation is quite as complicated as people make it out to be. Anyone with a boat, some explosives with a timer, and a commercial diver could presumably pull this off.

Hirsch has broken some extremely important stories in the past, but he’s also released some nonsense in recent times. I think there tends to be a phenomenon with some journalists who break big stories early in there careers. When they age the feel the need to drop new bombshells and the become desperate.

I do think we need to be careful about the term “Russian propagandist”, which I believe implies a specific motive. I don’t know Hirsch’s work well enough or his motives to say if he is or isn’t. But just become something goes against the master narrative or opposes war does not mean it is necessarily propaganda.
 

leman

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Leman, I have pages and pages of Skripal notes. I didn’t even know Hersh reported on it until this thread.

News at the time were reporting that it’s a novel super secret poison that only Russia knows how to make, yet I have a book on my bookshelf from nearly twenty years ago discussing it amongst many other soviet era poisons and how the Soviet program worked from a defector.

If that was indeed novachik, both Skripals would be dead, it is *insanely* toxic. Unless they were somehow poisoned in the parts per billion, which neither a door handle nor the alleged perfume bottle sprayer that was the delivery method would be able to do. Frankly, an aerosolized application of it would have killed the person spraying it in minutes. I find it hard to believe that one of the most surveilled places on the planet (cameras) didn’t see a guy in a hazmat suit walking around towards the Skripal house, because if he wasn’t wearing that level of protection he’d be dead…if the spray bottle story has any merit.

I’m having friends over but if I remember to later I can expand on the Skripal incident, but in real time I was paying attention to how the story was rolling out. It didn’t add up to my eye and that assessment had nothing to do with Sy Hersh.

Attached is the super-secret-no-one-knows-about-it chemical composition of novichock.

That's your argument? The relevance of novichok is not that it is "novel super secret poison" (btw, you are the first and only person I've seen to refer to it as such), but the fact that it's a soviet-designed agent only known to be produced in Russia and maybe Iran. It's not something you synthesise in your kitchen lab. As to delivery and toxicity, well that's exactly the point, isn't it? You can't just spray that thing as an aerosol and risk to expose the entire neighbourhood. From what I understand the consensus in this particular case was that this particular agent was delivered as a contact poison, using some sort of adhesive-like carrier substrate that minimises the risk of airborne exposure. The couple who found the perfume bottle described the substance as oily, and only the woman who actually rubbed it on her skin died — the guy who only touched the bottle itself survived. The story doesn't add up only if you don't pay attention to what's actually being discussed. And besides, there is the second part to all this — the fact that two russian secret agents who just happened to be in the neighbourhood the same morning were photographed, identified, end exposed.
 

dada_dave

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That's your argument? The relevance of novichok is not that it is "novel super secret poison" (btw, you are the first and only person I've seen to refer to it as such), but the fact that it's a soviet-designed agent only known to be produced in Russia and maybe Iran. It's not something you synthesise in your kitchen lab. As to delivery and toxicity, well that's exactly the point, isn't it? You can't just spray that thing as an aerosol and risk to expose the entire neighbourhood. From what I understand the consensus in this particular case was that this particular agent was delivered as a contact poison, using some sort of adhesive-like carrier substrate that minimises the risk of airborne exposure. The couple who found the perfume bottle described the substance as oily, and only the woman who actually rubbed it on her skin died — the guy who only touched the bottle itself survived. The story doesn't add up only if you don't pay attention to what's actually being discussed. And besides, there is the second part to all this — the fact that two russian secret agents who just happened to be in the neighbourhood the same morning were photographed, identified, end exposed.
Indeed who could forget the video of the two genuine cathedral enthusiasts? - which was so bad it was almost a deliberate confession by Russia. And more generally does this poster think everyone else keeps killing or attempting to kill Putin’s enemies just to make Putin look bad over and over and over again?
I also don’t think this operation is quite as complicated as people make it out to be. Anyone with a boat, some explosives with a timer, and a commercial diver could presumably pull this off.

For any country with easy access, no not terribly complicated - though doing it without getting caught is harder (and Hersh’s story makes no sense here). That last part, not getting caught, becomes harder for someone like Ukraine who has no direct access. Still possible - after all it appears as though they got a truck bomb through Russian side of the Kerch bridge while blowing it coincident with a fuel train going by - but harder.
 
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AG_PhamD

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Indeed who could forget the video of the two genuine cathedral enthusiasts? - which was so bad it was almost a deliberate confession by Russia. And more generally does this poster think everyone else keeps killing or attempting to kill Putin’s enemies just to make Putin look bad over and over and over again?


For any country with easy access, no not terribly complicated - though doing it without getting caught is harder (and Hersh’s story makes no sense here). That last part, not getting caught, becomes harder for someone like Ukraine who has no direct access. Still possible - after all it appears as though they got a truck bomb through Russian side of the Kerch bridge while blowing it coincident with a fuel train going by - but harder.

Indeed not getting caught is much harder. But while the Baltic isn’t like the Pacific, it is still a massive area with quite a bit of traffic to confuse things. Tracking it down to a specific boat, if that’s indeed how it was delivered, might be rather difficult.

That said, between the explosive remnants and actual military intelligence, investigators probably have a good idea of who did it. If it’s Russia perhaps they’re not providing evidence in order to protect sources and means. Or to use as some sort of bargaining chip in the future. If there was strong publicly presented evidence to suggest Russia, that might severely hurt Russia’s future business prospects more than they are already damaged.

Mr. Hersh’s story might have been more compelling had be said the trigger was sent with an ELF (extremely low frequency) transmission. ELF is used to communicate with submarines, but require such large antennas (kilometer sized antennas) to transmit (extremely slowly) that only a handful of countries have this capability, including the US and Russia.

The description from Hersh regarding the underwater detonation is really just laughable. I’m by no means informed about such things, but I know enough to know his description makes very little sense. Surely underwater remote detonation has been worked out long ago. And the talk of random natural sounds inadvertently detonating a trigger that would presumably require a highly specific code of frequencies sounds like a line from a C-rated action movie intended to lazily add that extra bit of unnecessary drama. Or Fast ‘n Furious franchise.
 

dada_dave

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Indeed not getting caught is much harder. But while the Baltic isn’t like the Pacific, it is still a massive area with quite a bit of traffic to confuse things. Tracking it down to a specific boat, if that’s indeed how it was delivered, might be rather difficult.

That said, between the explosive remnants and actual military intelligence, investigators probably have a good idea of who did it. If it’s Russia perhaps they’re not providing evidence in order to protect sources and means. Or to use as some sort of bargaining chip in the future. If there was strong publicly presented evidence to suggest Russia, that might severely hurt Russia’s future business prospects more than they are already damaged.

Mr. Hersh’s story might have been more compelling had be said the trigger was sent with an ELF (extremely low frequency) transmission. ELF is used to communicate with submarines, but require such large antennas (kilometer sized antennas) to transmit (extremely slowly) that only a handful of countries have this capability, including the US and Russia.

The description from Hersh regarding the underwater detonation is really just laughable. I’m by no means informed about such things, but I know enough to know his description makes very little sense. Surely underwater remote detonation has been worked out long ago. And the talk of random natural sounds inadvertently detonating a trigger that would presumably require a highly specific code of frequencies sounds like a line from a C-rated action movie intended to lazily add that extra bit of unnecessary drama. Or Fast ‘n Furious franchise.
According to one thing I read the water is pretty shallow where the explosives were thought to be emplaced, only about 80m. Thus, a high frequency signal might be better as it would still reach the detonator but be short range enough that no one else would pick up the signal.
 
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dada_dave

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Biden’s in Ukraine

Edit:

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AG_PhamD

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I suppose the good news is that Russia’s stockpiles are also running too considering it was reported last month Russia’s artillery use was down considerably, Russian soldiers are claiming a lack of ammo, Wagner apparently seems to have been cut off, etc. I suspect these alleged talks between China and Russia probably involve artillery.

I think the claims of a lack of Western ammo are a bit overhyped. Everyone has stockpiles behind the stockpiles they’re willing to give, and those numbers can vary. The US production capacity is so low because our tactics don’t involve WWI style artillery battles. There’s also other countries with the ability to make artillery and are expanding as well. Australia IIRC is opening 3 artillery production facilities. Plus, there’s a lot of nations with artillery stockpiles who might be willing to give or sell some off. Pakistan recently started selling to Ukraine.

I think the main concern would be if China got involved with Russia. They already have massively increased their military production, likely have huge stockpiles, and have the ability to throw up a new factory in a week and employee as many people as necessary to make as many shells as needed.
 

Eric

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Just wanted to point out that while Republicans applauded Trump for visiting North Korea they bashed Biden for visiting Ukraine. What happened to that party? Serious question. At one time they actually stood against Russia and it's sad to see what they've become.
 

AG_PhamD

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Just wanted to point out that while Republicans applauded Trump for visiting North Korea they bashed Biden for visiting Ukraine. What happened to that party? Serious question. At one time they actually stood against Russia and it's sad to see what they've become.

It’s the whatever the opposite party is doing is wrong theory of politics. I don’t think it was necessarily wrong to meet with Kim Jong Un (there are pros and cons to either), but I think it’s extremely important that Biden went to Ukraine.

I think it’s important to recognize that it’s a minority of republicans in congress that publicly oppose supporting Ukraine and probably many of them if push came to shove would actually support Ukraine if their votes depended on it. And there Dems too who have voted against aid for their own reasons since last year. But for all of those opposing Ukraine aid on the right, I wish those supporting it would call them out.
 

dada_dave

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So apparently the new right wing Q-nut theory is that the whole war is fake because “no one sees any footage of it happening”. I shit you not. You know despite it being the most documented wars of all time …

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Edit: seems to be coordinated campaign as even Fox News staffers are getting in on the messaging. I saw a few smaller accounts try it out a few weeks ago but nothing came of it. I guess that was a trial balloon that someone decided played well.

1677366419214.png


Catturd2 if you remember is one of the accounts Elon follows with gusto (on Twitter where catturd also posted this screed) who himself agreed with this gem from his fellow tech bro asswipe Sacks:

1677363615469.png


In fact Musk is pushing this line now.
 
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dada_dave

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Ukraine's delegate to the UN asked for a minute of silence to honor the victims of the war (it is not clear whether Russian victims were excluded); naturally, the Russian delegate rises and declares the he stands in remembrance of those who suffered in 2014 (from the protests that toppled Ukraine's Moscow-puppet government).


Yeah I know the Russian propaganda is that this all Ukraine’s fault but since we know that’s bullshit I guess that makes this a bit of self own …
 

AG_PhamD

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So apparently the new right wing Q-nut theory is that the whole war is fake because “no one sees any footage of it happening”. I shit you not. You know despite it being the most documented wars of all time …

View attachment 22027

Edit: seems to be coordinated campaign as even Fox News staffers are getting in on the messaging. I saw a few smaller accounts try it out a few weeks ago but nothing came of it. I guess that was a trial balloon that someone decided played well.

View attachment 22031

Catturd2 if you remember is one of the accounts Elon follows with gusto (on Twitter where catturd also posted this screed) who himself agreed with this gem from his fellow tech bro asswipe Sacks:

View attachment 22028

In fact Musk is pushing this line now.

Maybe I’m missing context or sarcasm, but I’m not sure what Mr. Becker is talking about. I’ve seen plenty of combat footage in the MSM and online. I’m not sure this fake-war stance has been at all talked about at all on Fox- I can’t say I’ve watched them in ages. Their YouTube channel has almost no content on Ukraine and instead focused on Ohio, the Alex Murdaugh trail, the Biden administration generally, transgenderism, wokeness, and other culture war issues.

Even Tucker Clarlson‘s opinion is not that there isn’t a war happening, clearly the is. I think it’s often misinterpreted as some pro-Putin sentiment- maybe it is in a disguised fashion, but I don’t generally like to make such assumptions. In reality I think it has far more to do with Biden than Putin. There is an understandable argument that we should not involve ourself in other countries conflicts. I just think it’s a rather short sighted and naive argument.

***Edit: In the interest of facts and not defending Fox News, Kyle Becker does not currently work at Fox.

I will say however we in the west, especially America, are exposed to a tremendous amount of pro-Ukranian propogranda. Aside from air strikes on civilians, we almost never hear about Ukrainian soldier casualties. We never hear about failures or dysfunction on the Ukrainian side. If you actually listen to informed experts outside the MSM and Western soldiers who have volunteered to fight, it’s apparent that a lot of the problems that exist on the Russian side are also true on the Ukrainian side. From the sounds of it, it doesn’t actually sound like Ukraine is doing that well at the moment- at least in Bahkmut.

I also hate the gasps of horror and pearl clutching reactions of those responding to any criticism of Ukraine or Zelensky. I think it’s silly for some to deny that Ukraine is an extremely corrupt country (something of a work in progress I suppose), that prior to the war Zelensky was considered by most a dismal politician, and that Ukraine has had to revoke some liberties in the interest of its own survival (not unlike most countries histories, including US history).

While all of these points have some legitimacy, it doesn’t make Russia anymore justified in its invasion or Ukraine any less worthy of supporting. I’m not aware of any utopian country. But the truth is we are receiving far from an objective picture of what’s happening on the ground. Obviously there reasons to be selective in reporting of information. It is however the nature of war and always will be.

I suppose for journalists there is the conflict between reporting objectively and the ethics of truth damaging the war efforts of the side you believe is to be on the right side of history. Especially when public opinion weighs so heavily on providing aid. That’s a tough act to juggle.

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Clearly there is no evidence of war.
6CA2003C-4670-47AE-848C-45FFA50AC273.jpeg301FDF2C-2F4A-47DC-87B6-3E2525419174.jpeg748A27A6-3A3E-4BC7-8653-C93C0A900A1D.jpeg
 
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dada_dave

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Maybe I’m missing context or sarcasm, but I’m not sure what Mr. Becker is talking about. I’ve seen plenty of combat footage in the MSM and online. I’m not sure this fake-war stance has been at all talked about at all on Fox- I can’t say I’ve watched them in ages. Their YouTube channel has almost no content on Ukraine and instead focused on Ohio, the Alex Murdaugh trail, the Biden administration generally, transgenderism, wokeness, and other culture war issues.

Even Tucker Clarlson‘s opinion is not that there isn’t a war happening, clearly the is. I think it’s often misinterpreted as some pro-Putin sentiment- maybe it is in a disguised fashion, but I don’t generally like to make such assumptions. In reality I think it has far more to do with Biden than Putin. There is an understandable argument that we should not involve ourself in other countries conflicts. I just think it’s a rather short sighted and naive argument.

***Edit: In the interest of facts and not defending Fox News, Kyle Becker does not currently work at Fox.

I will say however we in the west, especially America, are exposed to a tremendous amount of pro-Ukranian propogranda. Aside from air strikes on civilians, we almost never hear about Ukrainian soldier casualties. We never hear about failures or dysfunction on the Ukrainian side. If you actually listen to informed experts outside the MSM and Western soldiers who have volunteered to fight, it’s apparent that a lot of the problems that exist on the Russian side are also true on the Ukrainian side. From the sounds of it, it doesn’t actually sound like Ukraine is doing that well at the moment- at least in Bahkmut.

I also hate the gasps of horror and pearl clutching reactions of those responding to any criticism of Ukraine or Zelensky. I think it’s silly for some to deny that Ukraine is an extremely corrupt country (something of a work in progress I suppose), that prior to the war Zelensky was considered by most a dismal politician, and that Ukraine has had to revoke some liberties in the interest of its own survival (not unlike most countries histories, including US history).

While all of these points have some legitimacy, it doesn’t make Russia anymore justified in its invasion or Ukraine any less worthy of supporting. I’m not aware of any utopian country. But the truth is we are receiving far from an objective picture of what’s happening on the ground. Obviously there reasons to be selective in reporting of information. It is however the nature of war and always will be.

I suppose for journalists there is the conflict between reporting objectively and the ethics of truth damaging the war efforts of the side you believe is to be on the right side of history. Especially when public opinion weighs so heavily on providing aid. That’s a tough act to juggle.

——
Clearly there is no evidence of war.
View attachment 22070View attachment 22071View attachment 22069
This is coming from the Q-nut right wing people. As you say it’s totally insane but they’re pushing the idea that the war is a giant conspiracy to launder money by the Democrats and Biden administration so part of that is saying that the war isn’t actually happening or not at the scale people are claiming it to be. So they’re targeting the disengaged and the cynically conspiratorial (everyone lies, so nothing is real therefore even the most insane bullshit can real).

It is very stupid, but the point is in fact to be stupid. It’s a variation on the “big lie” theory of lying. Let’s say you’re selling this bullshit: it’s easily dismissed and mocked but the more your target audience sees the kinds of social media accounts they hate attacking the kinds of social media accounts they like the more defensive and accepting of unreality they become - the more that audience buys into whatever reality you’re selling or at least disengages further from consensus reality.

Edit: basically it’s not meant for someone like you or me, it’s meant to suck people who are already in the ecosystem further in, to go further down the rabbit hole as it were. It’s a bit of a catch-22 combatting it because if you engage you can cause the defensive response mentioned above and if you ignore it it can form a self reinforcing echo chamber. Getting that right requires walking a very difficult tightrope. As someone else pointed out the old Sartre quote on antisemitism applies all too well:

Never believe that anti-Semites are completely unaware of the absurdity of their replies. They know that their remarks are frivolous, open to challenge. But they are amusing themselves, for it is their adversary who is obliged to use words responsibly, since he believes in words. The anti-Semites have the right to play. They even like to play with discourse for, by giving ridiculous reasons, they discredit the seriousness of their interlocutors. They delight in acting in bad faith, since they seek not to persuade by sound argument but to intimidate and disconcert. If you press them too closely, they will abruptly fall silent, loftily indicating by some phrase that the time for argument is past.
 
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dada_dave

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I will say however we in the west, especially America, are exposed to a tremendous amount of pro-Ukranian propogranda. Aside from air strikes on civilians, we almost never hear about Ukrainian soldier casualties. We never hear about failures or dysfunction on the Ukrainian side. If you actually listen to informed experts outside the MSM and Western soldiers who have volunteered to fight, it’s apparent that a lot of the problems that exist on the Russian side are also true on the Ukrainian side. From the sounds of it, it doesn’t actually sound like Ukraine is doing that well at the moment- at least in Bahkmut.

I also hate the gasps of horror and pearl clutching reactions of those responding to any criticism of Ukraine or Zelensky. I think it’s silly for some to deny that Ukraine is an extremely corrupt country (something of a work in progress I suppose), that prior to the war Zelensky was considered by most a dismal politician, and that Ukraine has had to revoke some liberties in the interest of its own survival (not unlike most countries histories, including US history).

While all of these points have some legitimacy, it doesn’t make Russia anymore justified in its invasion or Ukraine any less worthy of supporting. I’m not aware of any utopian country. But the truth is we are receiving far from an objective picture of what’s happening on the ground. Obviously there reasons to be selective in reporting of information. It is however the nature of war and always will be.

I suppose for journalists there is the conflict between reporting objectively and the ethics of truth damaging the war efforts of the side you believe is to be on the right side of history. Especially when public opinion weighs so heavily on providing aid. That’s a tough act to juggle.

While it’s true that things like causality counts are few and far between it’s not true that you can’t find critical thinking on Ukrainian strategy or governance even from Ukrainians themselves. The Kyiv Independent for instance ran a series of articles on issues in the military intelligence service and of course there was the recent scandal in the defense ministry which almost toppled the minister (though he himself was never under suspicion of wrongdoing). If anything it seems the war has given the government more power to tackle corruption than it had before, though that can be dangerous. Further military analysts, including Ukrainian ones can offer very balanced views on what is happening on the ground even they’ll caution they don’t have access to complete information or if they do they can’t share everything.

As far as I can tell the Ukrainians are using Bahkmut and Vuhledar much like Severdonesk and Lysenchansk (sic for all proper nouns) earlier: using territorial defense and weaker units to grind down Russian forces while they prepare counteroffensives. There is of course the danger that they’ll get that wrong and suffer greater losses or more important losses than the Russians. We won’t know until after whether they are making the right call. Heck truthfully they probably won’t really know either too. Then there’s the danger that even if they are making the right calls that it won’t be enough as they have to generate enough combat potential to get through the defenses the Russians have been preparing. While the Kharkiv offensive went well, they found the weak spot early. The Russians have since mobilized large numbers of men and on defense the low quality of those troops won’t matter as much. So there will be fewer weak spots and while they did find one eventually in Kherson, that grinding fight did not go so well for the Ukrainians initially. They took a lot of casualties which was indeed reported on and they eventually succeeded because himars and long range artillery was effectively able to strangle Russian resupply over the river, thus forcing a retreat over that river. Which the Russians managed to pull off despite the odds. Credit where credit is due. Continuing to cut off supplies which has been a key Ukrainian tactic will be harder, not impossible as they’ve shown but harder.

So again on depending on who read, you can get a very hard look at both sides and a range of opinions. It’s not true that all the reporting is sunshine and rainbows on the Ukrainian side though overall of course it is amazing what they’ve done. Anything less than amazing and they would’ve lost given the material differences between the two sides even with the Russian blunders.
 
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