Russia-Ukraine

[Zoidberg]

As a side note, in terms of timing, as a whole I'm unironically glad the Western countries have the leaders they have now, it could have been much worse:
Trump was actively working to sap Ukraine's resources (as well as NATO).
Johnson is a terrible leader, and as beholden as he is to his Russian donors, I think Corbyn would have been even worse. He's a fence sitter and he seems to have some weird romanticised vision of Russia and he would have if not sided with them, at the very least taken the same weak stance as Germany.
Spain and France both have leaders that are pushing back against pro-Russian populist fascist parties who'd love nothing more than use this crisis to split the EU. Likewise, in Italy at least it's Draghi and not openly pro-Russian Salvini.

Edit: Germany has just put Nord Stream 2 on hold, great! Now all they have to do is undo their nuclear power plants phase out. I know it's not going to happen, but I'll never get over how stupid it was. It was terrible both for their energy independence and for the environment to shut them down without a viable alternative.

 

[yaxomoxay]

So, now that Russian troops are in east Ukraine, Ukraine will need to react. Which means that Russia will use the attack on Russian troops on “Russian” territory as the excuse to reach Kiev. That’s my guess.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

So, now that Russian troops are in east Ukraine, Ukraine will need to react. Which means that Russia will use the attack on Russian troops on “Russian” territory as the excuse to reach Kiev. That’s my guess.

Yes, this time, I think that the Russians have a war-game, or plan, which includes the seizure of, and occupation of, Kiev (Kyiv).

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

The most insulting part is everybody knows exactly what he is up to but this is what “polite society” does to justify fucking over vast amounts of people in regards to their freedom, economics, and lives. World leaders. Corporations. Banks. Fuck them all.

 

[Deleted member 215]

I don’t know. I don’t anticipate much of a response from Ukraine (for now). They know they will lose and they know no one is coming to their aid.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

......

Edit: Germany has just put Nord Stream 2 on hold, great! Now all they have to do is undo their nuclear power plants phase out. I know it's not going to happen, but I'll never get over how stupid it was. It was terrible both for their energy independence and for the environment to shut them down without a viable alternative.

Excellent news and a long overdue decision re Nord Stream 2.

Re nuclear power, that is a separate discussion, but the Green movement has been culturally important - and influential - in (what was then West) Germany since the 1980s, - and Green attitudes and politics are very deeply rooted there - that, plus the clear inability of the nuclear movement to own - admit, act upon, and learn from - sundry nuclear disasters has meant that persuading public opinion (and the election results that derive from that) that nuclear power might have a positive aspect is an exceptionally tough sell.

 

[yaxomoxay]

I don’t know. I don’t anticipate much of a response from Ukraine (for now). They know they will lose and they know no one is coming to their aid.

So - honest question - you think that Russia will march to Kiev without resistance?

 

[Deleted member 215]

No. I said "for now" because I don't think Ukraine will fight Russian troops in the "separatist" regions, if that's as far as Russia goes. A march on Kiev is something else. And I think there might actually be a military response from the West in that scenario.

 

[yaxomoxay]

No. I said "for now" because I don't think Ukraine will fight Russian troops in the "separatist" regions, if that's as far as Russia goes. A march on Kiev is something else. And I think there might actually be a military response from the West in that scenario.

Ok I understand what you’re saying. Thanks for clarifying.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

No. I said "for now" because I don't think Ukraine will fight Russian troops in the "separatist" regions, if that's as far as Russia goes. A march on Kiev is something else. And I think there might actually be a military response from the West in that scenario.

Does anybody honestly believe Putin is going to go “That’s all I wanted. I’m done now. Thanks for accommodating me.”? There’s a good chance he’s already calculated the impacts of sanctions. For people like Putin and Trump having a civil or world war on their watch is part of the their legacy bucket list. I believe Trump even made some kind of statement saying he’ll be dead by the time any potential major negative effects from his polices are felt. So why should he care. I think it’s fair to say that Trump cares more about the legacy of the Trump brand than any suffering his kids and grandkids might have to endure. Similarly I think Putin would be more than happy to be considered on par with Stalin in world history including all the negatives (are there any actual positives?).

 

[Zoidberg]

Excellent news and a long overdue decision re Nord Stream 2.

Re nuclear power, that is a separate discussion, but the Green movement has been culturally important - and influential - in (what was then West) Germany since the 1980s, - and Green attitudes and politics are very deeply rooted there - that, plus the clear inability of the nuclear movement to own - admit, act upon, and learn from - sundry nuclear disasters has meant that persuading public opinion (and the election results that derive from that) that nuclear power might have a positive aspect is an exceptionally tough sell.

Yes, I am very much aware of that view of theirs based on misinformation and outdated technology, just like how the French love their homeopathy. It’s one of those things…

I’ve voted for green parties more than once because I sympathise with many of their ideas, but many of them have long suffered from a serious lack of scientific understanding and –dare I say– a certain… disconnect from reality. I want them to have some political weight, but I wouldn’t want them in power.

No. I said "for now" because I don't think Ukraine will fight Russian troops in the "separatist" regions, if that's as far as Russia goes. A march on Kiev is something else. And I think there might actually be a military response from the West in that scenario.

Unlikely, as they have all said they would support Ukraine, but won’t get involved directly (which is the right course of action, imo: Ukraine already has a sizable military, but it is not well equipped. Given a sufficient supply of modern weapons they could give the Russians a tough time).

 

[Huntn]

What does it take to be admitted into NATO? (answered below) Does Ukraine qualify?
Get’m joined up…a big chunk of land.

​

NATO: What Does It Take To Join?

NATO candidate countries are stepping up efforts to fulfill admission criteria in the runup to the alliance's summit later this year in Prague, when new members are expected to be invited to join the bloc. Each candidate state must meet military, political, economic, and legal requirements that...

www.rferl.org

Background: How to become a NATO member

What is a Membership Action Plan?

www.unian.info

List of 30 member states:
NATO= blue

List of NATO Member States | NATO Members 2022

At present, NATO Member States comprises 30 countries from the original 12 countries that signed the North Atlantic Treaty on 4 April 1949. Check the complete NATO countries list below.

www.jagranjosh.com

​

 

[Huntn]

Does anybody honestly believe Putin is going to go “That’s all I wanted. I’m done now. Thanks for accommodating me.”? There’s a good chance he’s already calculated the impacts of sanctions. For people like Putin and Trump having a civil or world war on their watch is part of the their legacy bucket list. I believe Trump even made some kind of statement saying he’ll be dead by the time any potential major negative effects from his polices are felt. So why should he care. I think it’s fair to say that Trump cares more about the legacy of the Trump brand than any suffering his kids and grandkids might have to endure. Similarly I think Putin would be more than happy to be considered on par with Stalin in world history including all the negatives (are there any actual positives?).

Bring Ukraine under the NATO umbrella.

 

[lizkat]

The most insulting part is everybody knows exactly what he is up to but this is what “polite society” does to justify fucking over vast amounts of people in regards to their freedom, economics, and lives. World leaders. Corporations. Banks. Fuck them all.

That's why it's time for "sanctions" to give way to really cleaning house in the west: banks as money launderers, the petrol lobbies, the shell company tax evasion games and on and on. "Following the money" really gives only a toes-deep sense of the vast wash of illicit wealth transfer and attempts to conceal it.

Global banks defy U.S. crackdowns by serving oligarchs, criminals and terrorists - ICIJ

The FinCEN Files show trillions in tainted dollars flow freely through major banks, swamping a broken enforcement system.

www.icij.org

But so long as "all due care for greed" remains the top model, we're not going to see a deep level of housecleaning. It's past time for more of the world to consider alternatives that economists have been tossing around for decades.

Lately I see that the right has taken up a new talking point, namely that there's no such thing as "unfettered capitalism" and so the left is clearly barking up an imaginary tree. Sounds to me instead that some greedy folks are worried, and that's good because we're running out of time on this planet to accommodate greed and the inevitable kleptocrats (and related supportive industries) it has spawned all around the world.

 

[Deleted member 215]

Does anybody honestly believe Putin is going to go “That’s all I wanted. I’m done now. Thanks for accommodating me.”? There’s a good chance he’s already calculated the impacts of sanctions. For people like Putin and Trump having a civil or world war on their watch is part of the their legacy bucket list. I believe Trump even made some kind of statement saying he’ll be dead by the time any potential major negative effects from his polices are felt. So why should he care. I think it’s fair to say that Trump cares more about the legacy of the Trump brand than any suffering his kids and grandkids might have to endure. Similarly I think Putin would be more than happy to be considered on par with Stalin in world history including all the negatives (are there any actual positives?).

I don't know. Putin has done this "separatist" nonsense several times now, in South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Crimea*, and now Donetsk/Luhansk. I'm not convinced a full-scale war is coming. I think he could continue this pattern for a while, as could a successor.

*Crimea being the only example of actual annexation, motivated by the strategic benefits of the Black Sea ports.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

I don't know. Putin has done this "separatist" nonsense several times now, in South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Crimea*, and now Donetsk/Luhansk. I'm not convinced a full-scale war is coming. I think he could continue this pattern for a while, as could a successor.

*Crimea being the only example of actual annexation, motivated by the strategic benefits of the Black Sea ports.

That may be the case be we aren’t going to be able to wag our finger and sanction him to knock it off. It’s become apparent that the world’s rich and powerful have insulated themselves against the rest of the world’s problems while doing a pretty damn good job of assuring we’ll turn the guns on each other instead of them. Their biggest concern is their favorite yacht craftsman might get killed in a skirmish. There are plenty of people who think we should turn our guns on them if it comes to that but the global unhinged are intellectually lazy and would rather shoot their neighbor.

 

[lizkat]

I don't know. Putin has done this "separatist" nonsense several times now, in South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Crimea*, and now Donetsk/Luhansk. I'm not convinced a full-scale war is coming. I think he could continue this pattern for a while, as could a successor.

*Crimea being the only example of actual annexation, motivated by the strategic benefits of the Black Sea ports.

Ukraine's alignment has been the reddest of all of Putin's red lines though, in the sense of eastern European nations leaning west, or "breakaway" pieces of Russia proper or the former USSR agitating for independence after the initial dissolution of the Soviet Union.

Ukraine to Russia is the equivalent of Cuba to the USA, in the sense that we were waaaaay more than just uncomfortable with the idea of Russian missiles 90 miles off our coast back in the 60s. Putin's nightmare is the idea that NATO weaponry (US weaponry) could someday end up sitting on an actual land border of Russia.

Look at poor Belarus now. Despite citizens' dissatisfaction with the rigged re-election of the autocrat still now running their country, Belarus under Lukashenko has essentially signed away sovereign status at this point in "giving permission" for Russian troops to remain in that country at the Ukraine border. Meanwhile Lukashenko is not even acknowledged by some eastern European countries as the current president of Belarus thanks to the depth of corruption of the 2020 election; in fact the opposition has been given residence and protected status in Lithuania. So Belarus overall remains in a volatile condition. Putin banks on its weakness (and the existence of a half-baked Belarus-Russia supranational confederation constructed in the mid-90s) to have his way on Belarusian turf right now.

It's true that Ukraine is not Belarus and that any move Putin makes to acquire control over western Ukraine will be met by force from Ukraine (and at least covert western assistance). And, the states to the west remember the USSR...

And it is geographic location of Ukraine relative to nearby NATO member states iin eastern Europe that drives Putin nuts. He hails from a time when the USSR self-described as empire restored, and his own bailwick as a KGB officer was all the way over in then East Germany's Dresden. He's not likely to quit pressuring to get all of Ukraine under more direct influence of Russia. Apparently now he's got tired of being ignored on the subject of his perceived right to determine the lean of a bunch of independent nations in eastern Europe. The fear there is that if the West averts its eyes now, Ukraine won't be the end of Russia's efforts to redraw post- cold war maps.

 

[Citysnaps]

BREAKING (Borowitz): Putin says he deserves Ukraine as consolation for losing the White House.

I say give him Mar-a-Lago and call it even Steven.

 

[MarkusL]

Excellent news and a long overdue decision re Nord Stream 2.

Re nuclear power, that is a separate discussion, but the Green movement has been culturally important - and influential - in (what was then West) Germany since the 1980s, - and Green attitudes and politics are very deeply rooted there - that, plus the clear inability of the nuclear movement to own - admit, act upon, and learn from - sundry nuclear disasters has meant that persuading public opinion (and the election results that derive from that) that nuclear power might have a positive aspect is an exceptionally tough sell.

And another problematic circumstance is that half the world's uranium mining is controlled by Russia and its neighboring puppet regimes. I'm sure some countries can solve their expansion of nuclear power with the help of Canada and Australia, but not everyone can. European politicians have a tendency to define energy independence as "replacing Russian gas with Russian and Kazakh uranium" but somehow only half of that plan ends up on their campaign signs.

As far as I can tell the "sanctions" against Russia were mostly a dud, and I think our energy dependence is the explanation for that. It's that thing we can't import from just anywhere on Earth, so we let Russia play its game in eastern Europe while we pretend to care.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60125659

 

[yaxomoxay]

Does anybody honestly believe Putin is going to go “That’s all I wanted. I’m done now. Thanks for accommodating me.”? There’s a good chance he’s already calculated the impacts of sanctions.

the question is who is going to help Russia, and how?

Find the answer to the questions above and we’ll know how the future will shape.