Russia-Ukraine

[Scepticalscribe]

Nope, he needs to install a puppet government for the region. He’s already been working on that for a while by funding and arming the ”separatist” movements.

Agreed.

They (the separatists) have been supported by Russia (politically, economically, militarily - remember the "little green men"?) for eight years now; this - those facts - is - and are - not new; just the degree of support (taking the form of recognition of the breakaway enclaves).

And, I would imagine that the areas - geographical - in what Mr Putin defines as "Luhansk" and "Donetsk" is considerably larger (as maps would suggest) that the breakaway enclaves currently run by the separatists.

In other words, I would expect what eventually becomes both "Luhansk" and "Donetsk" to have a geographical (and hence, political) expression that covers a lot more space (and ground) than the current expression of these breakaway enclaves.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

If he takes part of Ukraine but many Russian soldiers die in the effort, he may find himself on the wrong side of a popular uprising, especially given the economic toll sanctions could take on the Russian people.

This is what I think may indeed happen.

An attack on the rest of Ukraine will not be without considerable cost - military, economic, political - for Mr Putin (and, by extension, Russia).

Ukraine is a large (and - by post Soviet standards) well populated, well-educated, well off country; they will (in the western half of the country) passionately resist any attempt to restore them to the unwelcome embrace of a "post Soviet" Russia, intent on brutally exercising what it claims are historical prerogatives.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Nope, he needs to install a puppet government for the region. He’s already been working on that for a while by funding and arming the ”separatist” movements.

I am sure he has been, but I'm wondering exactly how big/small this separatist group is. It wouldn't have gotten this far if it was just a tiny minority.

And while Putin is a foreign leader, I can't help but to think about the blind unwavering loyalty Trump supporters have for Tump. Lies and exaggerations about a better future aligned with Russia could be just as intoxicating to some Ukrainians along with promises of high status and compensated positions to those who lead them to victory.

 

[Ulenspiegel]

@Chew Toy McCoy

The ethnic Russian population of Donbas is approximately 40%. The primary language in Donbas is Russian. Russian is the first language of the 75% of Donbas population.

According to the 2014 referendum (not officially recognized by any country) it was claimed that 89% voted in favor of self-rule.

 

[Zoidberg]

Well, this is it now.

I have no doubt that Russia can take over Ukraine, so all we can do now is hope that it costs Putin dearly, and that the feckless leaders in the West, such as Scholz, will finally grow a spine.

Ukraine will now be left with no choice: either take the loss and cede the East (and it would be naive to think that's all Putin wants) so that they can then somehow join NATO in an impossible record time, or start shooting back, which will be used by Russia to take the rest of the country.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Well, this is it now.

"Peace-keepers," who have been invited in by the leaders of the separatists following hastily manufactured "atrocities" (reports of large explosions tonight in Luhansk).

I have no doubt that Russia can take over Ukraine, so all we can do now is hope that it costs Putin dearly, and that the feckless leaders in the West, such as Scholz, will finally grow a spine.

The problem is that Mr Scholz is all too new to the position, and hasn't yet fully grown into his power and position - and Dr Merkel (who had Mr Putin's measure) was always going to be an extremely difficult act to follow.

 

[Zoidberg]

"Peace-keepers," who have been invited in by the leaders of the separatists following hastily manufactured "atrocities" (reports of large explosions tonight in Luhansk).




The problem is that Mr Scholz is all too new to the position, and hasn't yet fully grown into his power and position - and Dr Merkel (who had Mr Putin's measure) was always going to be an extremely difficult act to follow.

Ah, always the euphemist, like when you said that Schroeder is allegedly too friendly to Putin's regime. Let's call a spade a spade.

Unfortunately I often have to work in the company of idiots who swallow Russian propaganda hook line and sinker, and my patience is thin when it comes to bad faith and hypocrisy.

Just another reminder that energy independence –and thus, nuclear power– is a matter of national security.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Ukraine will now be left with no choice: either take the loss and cede the East (and it would be naive to think that's all Putin wants) so that they can then somehow join NATO in an impossible record time, or start shooting back, which will be used by Russia to take the rest of the country.

The east is gone - it is (and has been for years) impossible to recover - and this is what I have meant when I have been writing about the appalling dilemma - the poisoned chalice, if you like - that Mr Putin would engineer to proffer the government in Kyiv - and the subsequent possible (now probable to inevitable) emergence of "two Ukraines" ever since this thread started.

That is the tragedy for Ukraine: They will be obliged to accept the loss of the east as the price of being allowed to embrace the west: Territorial integrity or national sovereignty, but not both.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Ah, always the euphemist, like when you said that Schroeder is allegedly too friendly to Putin's regime. Let's call a spade a spade.

Unfortunately I often have to work in the company of idiots who swallow Russian propaganda hook line and sinker, and my patience is thin when it comes to bad faith and hypocrisy.

Just another reminder that power supply –and thus, nuclear power– is a matter of national security.

Well, in such a context, inverted commas usefully serve - to me - as an equivalent (one that is heavy on the irony, granted) of an intellectual or political health warning.

In any case, there is a distinction to be drawn, a marked difference (to my mind, at least) between what I would like to see happen, and what I actually think will happen.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

@Chew Toy McCoy

The ethnic Russian population of Donbas is approximately 40%. The primary language in Donbas is Russian. Russian is the first language of the 75% of Donbas population.

According to the 2014 referendum (not officially recognized by any country) it was claimed that 89% voted in favor of self-rule.

Thanks for that info. On the second part, are you saying the break-away regions voted for self-rule separate from the rest of Ukraine?

 

[Zoidberg]

Well, in such a context, inverted commas usefully serve - to me - as an equivalent (one that is heavy on the irony, granted) of an intellectual or political health warning.

In any case, there is a distinction to be drawn, a marked difference (to my mind, at least) between what I would like to see happen, and what I actually think will happen.

Yes, there's no place for wishful thinking. The sanctions will be too weak, and have too many loopholes to be effective, and by the time Russia is kicked from SWIFT, they will have finalised their alternative payment system.

 

[Zoidberg]

Thanks for that info. On the second part, are you saying the break-away regions voted for self-rule separate from the rest of Ukraine?

Not really. They've held elections but like all Russian elections, they are for show. In their attempt to manufacture legitimacy, Crimea had a farcical referendum shortly after the invasion, so we can expect the newly created "republics" will stage their own as well, the outcome of which will be that they all want to join Russia.

It's understandably hard to vote against someone when they quite literally hold a gun to your child's head.

 

[User.45]

All seems to be coming together and Putin had finally put his cards on the deck.
I think Putin originally wanted a Blitzkrieg, but the NATO and Ukraine were left way more keyed than what he expected.
Ukrainians were conditioned for almost a decade now for this moment and are ready for guerrilla warfare which is essentially never worthwhile for the invading forces (unless the goal is sale of arms...). So this conflict cannot be won by Putin through full on war. On the other hand it doesn't matter for him whether his forces chill out around Ukraine for days or months. Since half the Russian forces are around Ukraine, it's clear that Putin is not up for opening up fronts beyond Ukraine.

So Putin tries to win the conflict by disintegrating its neighbors with a significant Russian minority. Well, this is impressive tactic.

But that takes me back to why I disagree with @yaxomoxay so vehemently. Putin's window for Blitzkrieg has long closed, and now he can gain nothing with a full on military conflict, thus we won't have that.

On the other hand WHODATHUNK that energy independence is not only a climate change thingy, but a key to maintain national security.

 

[yaxomoxay]

But that takes me back to why I disagree with @yaxomoxay so vehemently. Putin's window for Blitzkrieg has long closed, and now he can gain nothing with a full on military conflict, thus we won't have that.

Time will tell, but I hope you’re right.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

The other thing that interests me - and which nobody has asked (let alone answered) is why now?

What is driving Mr Putin (domestically or otherwise) to take this action just now?

To my mind, this is something that has been very much on the cards (as in a very possible course of political action) ever since 2014, and, for some of us, (for, I vividly recall and remember discussing, war-gaming, exploring, pondering, mulling over, debating, teasing out, thrashing out, these particular matters with a pair of very able, very, very bright, subtle, informed, intelligent and very interesting Estonian diplomats over a number of informal meetings, long lunches included - we were all serving with various EU missions - in Tbilisi, Georgia, as long ago as 2010), this is something we thought might (or could - or would) occur, ever since at least a decade ago.

We concluded that Georgia (and Moldova) were, in a way, test runs, or dress rehearsals, of the tools in a (Russian) political tool box whereby one placed, or exerted, impossible pressure on the internal divisions of a country in order to permanently sever, split, splinter (and thereby permanently dismember and weaken) it, leaving it with unpalatable political dilemmas.

And we concuded that all of this was going to end in - and take place in - Ukraine, that all roads led to Ukraine, that Ukraine is what really matters.

So, why now?

 

[Zoidberg]

The other thing that interests me - and which nobody has asked (let alone answered) is why now?

What is driving Mr Putin (domestically or otherwise) to take this action just now?

To my mind, this is something that has been very much on the cards (as in a very possible course of political action) ever since 2014, and, for some of us (I remember discussing, war-gaming, exploring, pondering, mulling over, debating, teasing out, thrashing out, these particular matters with a pair of very able, very, very bright, subtle, informed, intelligent and very interesting Estonian diplomats over a number of informal meetings, long lunches included - we were all serving with various EU missions - in Tbilisi, Georgia, as long ago as, 2010), this is something we thought might (or could - or would) occur, ever since at least a decade ago.

So, why now?

Fair question. I'm cynical, and I don't think he really cares about Ukraine. If anything, it's going to cost them, but Putin is a shit-stirrer: he must create crises to keep Western countries chasing their tails.

A few hypotheses in no particular order:
- If their propaganda manages to paint this as Biden's doing, it will help the GOP win big in the mid-terms, which is pretty much a guarantee that not much will get done until 2025.
- Macron is running for reelection in a few months.
- He uses chaos as a strategy (like in drunken boxing, it's very hard to anticipate his actions when they don't follow any normal logic).
- Something else we don't know yet. Maybe if Ukraine goes well for Russia, they count on China to put pressure on Taiwan, which would fuck up a lot things.
- Other former soviet countries might grow restless soon, and he wants to make it clear that any move towards the EU or NATO will be crushed.
- It simply takes us longer to put the pieces back together, than it takes him to break it and maybe that's enough for him.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Fair question. I'm cynical, and I don't think he really cares about Ukraine. If anything, it's going to cost them, but Putin is a shit-stirrer: he must create crises to keep Western countries chasing their tails.

Excellent and thoughtful post.

However, where I differ with you (from you?) is that - for all of his vicious, violent capacity for sadistic cruelty (which is considerable) - unfortunately, I do think that Mr Putin cares about Ukraine.

In fact, on this subject, I think that he is irrational, beyond reason, and wildly emotional (and yes, vicious, violent and vindictive), armoured by what he thinks are historic facts, yet fuelled by nurtured political grievances.

In any case, I have been saying - ever since 2010 - to anyone who would listen to me - is that I think that Russia will go to the wire on Ukraine (in a way that they would not for any other place in the post Soviet space).

That is what I have long thought would happen (and had advised my superiors, and the people I reported to, accordingly).

Now, as to what I would like to see happen: Well, on Twitter, - @EdwardGLuce - Edward Luce (of the Financial Times - in the past, I have attended talks he has given) wrote tonight: "Cannot be stated strongly enough: If the west - chiefly America, but also Britain - doesn't burn its financial ties to Russia's oligarchy then Putin will prevail. This means taking on Wall Street, the City, law firms realtors, the prep schools and western laundering outfits."

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

The other thing that interests me - and which nobody has asked (let alone answered) is why now?

What is driving Mr Putin (domestically or otherwise) to take this action just now?

To my mind, this is something that has been very much on the cards (as in a very possible course of political action) ever since 2014, and, for some of us, (for, I vividly recall and remember discussing, war-gaming, exploring, pondering, mulling over, debating, teasing out, thrashing out, these particular matters with a pair of very able, very, very bright, subtle, informed, intelligent and very interesting Estonian diplomats over a number of informal meetings, long lunches included - we were all serving with various EU missions - in Tbilisi, Georgia, as long ago as 2010), this is something we thought might (or could - or would) occur, ever since at least a decade ago.

So, why now?

Perhaps part of it is after we left Afghanistan it became obvious pretty quickly that the American people have zero interest in entering a new foreign conflict. He might have thought regardless of who is President the US would be slow to get involved. As the saying goes, too soon.

 

[lizkat]

What about Peter Thiel?

Yeah, for sure. Thiel and his piles of money are way more than problematic in politics, and he's smarter than Trump, whom he ostensibly supports -- but only while the guy is still useful for having some followers, which is the same path his pal Bannon has taken, although the two of them (I think) seem to have somewhat different goals. Bannon's about burning everything down and starting over. But Thiel's more about how government should either get out of the way or let monopolies do their thing because they're efficient and profitable and so he keeps piling dough into malleable pro-Trump candidates who are essentially authoritarian followers. The guy comes off as a proto-fascist although he has denied that over and over.

 

[lizkat]

I understand that this isn’t exactly a civil war situation, but then I don’t understand how you then have these breakaways regions. Breaking away entire regions isn't exactly something just a couple of knuckleheads can pull off....even with Russia's support.

There's a long, long history of competing influences on eastern and western Ukraine (the western part 'belonged' to Poland between 1919 and 1939, i.e., at Versailles in 1919 there was no provision for a separate Ukraine), and there's also a long and tragic history of Russian and later Soviet efforts to suppress entirely the very idea of Ukraine as a geopolitical entity with its own languages, cultures, intellectuals in control of its own universities, municipal bureaucrats to administer the urban areas and so forth.

Anne Applebaum's new book (publication of which is actually coincidental as far as this current situation in Ukraine is concerned) is titled Red Famine: Stalin's War on Ukraine. The book was years in the making, was heaviiy researched with assistance from Ukrainian nationals, and includes material from archives made public in Ukraine only after the dissolution of the USSR. Her work is focused primarily on what exactly happened during the horrendous USSR-driven famine -- the Holodomor-- in Ukraine during 1932-33, when 3.9 million Ukrainian peasants died of starvation (while the USSR went about methodically destroying Ukraine's artistic and intellectual elite) but she also provides a lot of context regarding Ukraine and earlier history in eastern Europe and Russia. In the Soviet era in Ukraine, Russian was the official language, Ukrainian history was not taught, the impact of the 1932-33 famine in Ukraine was officially denied, even some census records were altered in that regard. The interesting thing is that now the archives on history of the Soviet era in Ukraine are the most open (declassified) ones in all of Europe...

Anyway sure looks now like Putin's trying to pick up where Stalin left off, despite his propagandizing.