Russia-Ukraine

[Scepticalscribe]

This is an old, old playbook:

After an extraordinary meeting of his Security Council, President Vladimir Putin said he was - I love the phrasing, who does he think is fooled by this? - considering a request by two regions of eastern Ukraine held by Russian-backed separatists to be recognised as independent.

However, while oil prices (which Russia needs nicely high) are rising (as are gas prices - and, remember, Russia exports both, and relies on the export of both to sustain its economy; the west only turned to Russia as a supplier of energy - Cold War concerns notwithstanding - when OPEC raised the price of oil in the early 1970s, giving rise to a need to diversify and secure energy supplies elsewhere rather than rely, solely, on the Middle East), the rouble is taking a bit of a hit.

 

[SuperMatt]

This is an old, old playbook:

After an extraordinary meeting of his Security Council, President Vladimir Putin said he was - I love the phrasing, who does he think is fooled by this? - considering a request by two regions of eastern Ukraine held by Russian-backed separatists to be recognised as independent.

However, while oil prices (which Russia needs nicely high) are rising (as are gas prices - and, remember, Russia exports both, and relies on the export of both to sustain its economy; the west only turned to Russia as a supplier of energy - Cold War concerns notwithstanding - when OPEC raised the price of oil in the early 1970s, giving rise to a need to diversify and secure energy supplies elsewhere rather than rely, solely, on the Middle East), the rouble is taking a bit of a hit.

If all of Europe boycotts Russian oil, is it fair to say it would have a severe negative impact on the Russian economy?

 

[yaxomoxay]

Talking about foreign policy, today is the 50th anniversary of Nixon’s trip to China.

 

[Zoidberg]

He's the closest thing we've got to a fucking Bond villain.

What about Peter Thiel?

 

[Scepticalscribe]

If all of Europe boycotts Russian oil, is it fair to say it would have a severe negative impact on the Russian economy?

Well, yes. Without a doubt.

However, that won't happen immediately, or, in the short term. It cannot; the energy networks, infrastructure, supply systems, economies and societies are all too intertwined and too dependent on oil (and gas); immediate substitutes are not available to hand. Besides, the (domestic) political cost, and subsequent social unrest (cold homes, anyone?) - with soaring energy bills - would be too high in the immediate, short-term.

But, but, but: That is no reason for it not to be planned for in the medium to long term; I, for one, would love to see the Nordstream 2 - and (even though I lie to the left on the political spectrum), the questionable role of (possibly compromised) individuals such as Gerhard Schroder - and Europe's dependence on Nordstream 2 - terminated, and for Europe to diversify its energy sources.

Moreover, with dawning awareness of Green and environmental issues, (and youthful electorates who are attracted to, aware of, and concerned by, environmental matters), this is inevitable; it is just that it won't be immediate.

However, I cannot see an invasion of Ukraine leading to anything other than a marked reduction - driven by both political imperatives, and domestic public opinion - to reduce dependence on any Russian energy source.

That, too, will be inevitable.

And, if indeed Europe needed a further wake-up call, I think the events (or, possible events, potential events planned events) of the past few weeks re Ukraine will have concentrated European minds as to why NATO exists, what its purpose (past and present is) and that it may have a more than useful (and necessary) role to play.

 

[Ulenspiegel]

Talking about foreign policy, today is the 50th anniversary of Nixon’s trip to China.

Kissinger's work.

If all of Europe boycotts Russian oil, is it fair to say it would have a severe negative impact on the Russian economy?

It would be a double-edged sword. As you will have to deal with the energy products as a whole (oil + natural gas). They go hand in hand in this case.

30% of EU's oil imports and 39% of EU's natural gas imports are from Russia.

And I leave this here as well:

"In 2013 the shares of Russian natural gas in the domestic gas consumption in EU countries were:

• 
  Estonia 100%
• 
  Finland 100%
• 
  Latvia 100%
• 
  Lithuania 100%
• 
  Slovakia 100%
• 
  Bulgaria 97%
• 
  Hungary 83%
• 
  Slovenia 72%
• 
  Greece 66%
• 
  Czech Republic 63%
• 
  Austria 62%
• 
  Poland 57%
• 
  Germany 46%
• 
  Italy 34%
• 
  France 18%
• 
  Netherlands 5%
• 
  Belgium 1.1%"

 

[Scepticalscribe]

The other thing to bear in mind is that Mr Putin has been in power now for just over twenty years.

This means that he has long become quite habituated to political power, to habits and patterns of deference, to having his every need anticipated and met, to exercising the practice of power, to the norms, forms, and habits of power, to living with the patterns of thought (and behaviour) that occur (and develop) in what is - to all intents and purposes - a court (i.e. a court of a king, or a ruler) - surrounded by sycophants, and factions competing for your attention and favour - where you run the risk of being told what you want to hear, rather than what you may need to hear - rather than a coherent system of government in any way answerable to something akin to the rule of law, and the principle of the separation of powers.

Thus, I wonder how many people remain in his immediate circles who have permission - or feel sufficiently strong in themselves or their positions - to (freely, without fear of suffering ill consequence) "speak truth to power". To ask awkward questions, or point out inconvenient facts?

 

[yaxomoxay]

So Russia now officially recognizes the independence of parts of Ukraine. Basically a declaration or war vs Ukraine.

God help us all.

 

[quagmire]

Simpsons predict another event…….

 

[yaxomoxay]

Simpsons predict another event…….

This one was easy to predict

 

[Scepticalscribe]

So Russia now officially recognizes the independence of parts of Ukraine. Basically a declaration or war vs Ukraine.

God help us all.

Yes.

And a permanent division of the country, as the breakaway regions will now call on Russian "aid" and assistance, and seek Russian support - an inevitable part of this playbook - which will be granted.

However, while I cannot see how Russian rule would ever be accepted in the west of Ukraine, (and any such invasion will cost them dearly), equally, I cannot see how Kiev (Kyiv) can restore Ukrainian authority over those breakaway eastern regions.

Nevertheless, I do wonder how many other countries (very few, I should imagine - and the reaction of China will be both revealing and telling) will choose to join Russia in recognising these breakaway regions. As a measure of Russian influence and power, it should prove instructive.

 

[yaxomoxay]

Yes.

And a permanent division of the country, as the breakaway regions will now call on Russian "aid" and assistance, and seek Russian support - an inevitable part of this playbook - which will be granted.

However, while I cannot see how Russian rule would ever be accepted in the west of Ukraine, (and any such invasion will cost them dearly), equally, I cannot see how Kiev (Kyiv) can restore Ukrainian authority over those breakaway eastern regions.

Nevertheless, I do wonder how many other countries (very few, I should imagine - and the reaction of China will be both revealing and telling) will choose to join Russia in recognising these breakaway regions. As a measure of Russian influence and power, it should prove instructive.

Yes, I am very curious about both China and India.

 

[Ulenspiegel]

"Sit and wait" + "divide et impera".

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Yes.

And a permanent division of the country, as the breakaway regions will now call on Russian "aid" and assistance, and seek Russian support - an inevitable part of this playbook - which will be granted.

However, while I cannot see how Russian rule would ever be accepted in the west of Ukraine, (and any such invasion will cost them dearly), equally, I cannot see how Kiev (Kyiv) can restore Ukrainian authority over those breakaway eastern regions.

Nevertheless, I do wonder how many other countries (very few, I should imagine - and the reaction of China will be both revealing and telling) will choose to join Russia in recognising these breakaway regions. As a measure of Russian influence and power, it should prove instructive.

I understand that this isn’t exactly a civil war situation, but then I don’t understand how you then have these breakaways regions. Breaking away entire regions isn't exactly something just a couple of knuckleheads can pull off....even with Russia's support.

 

[Citysnaps]

Fiona Hill says that Trump emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine by treating the country like a 'playground'

Donald Trump's former Russia advisor, Fiona Hill, was critical of his approach to dealing with Russia, saying he was driven by self-interest.

www.businessinsider.com

I always had a ton of respect for Dr. Hill regarding her expertise on national security matters. And especially her impeachment testimony

 

[Huntn]

I've been wondering what trump would have given in/up to Putin if he were still president.

Thank god he isn't.

His question would be Can I build Trump Tower Moscow?

 

[Huntn]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/21/russia-ukraine-updates/#link-XRK54ZUJL5A6HCUUZO3BBGKMPY

Putin’s a sinister liar so we know why Trump liked him so much.

 

[SuperMatt]

I understand that this isn’t exactly a civil war situation, but then I don’t understand how you then have these breakaways regions. Breaking away entire regions isn't exactly something just a couple of knuckleheads can pull off....even with Russia's support.

Nope, he needs to install a puppet government for the region. He’s already been working on that for a while by funding and arming the ”separatist” movements.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Putin’s a sinister liar so we know why Trump liked him so much.

The fact (and I think it is a fact) that Mr Putin is what you describe (not inaccurately) as "a sinister liar" does not detract from - and is not mutually exclusive from - the fact that he is also paranoid, and may also believe some of the stuff that comes from his mouth and mind.

His anger - real rage and raw, vindictive fury - at Ukraine (on Russian TV) this evening strikes me as genuine.

A few posts back, I wrote of how Mr Putin has been in power (uninterrupted and increasing power) for just over twenty years, and some of what may have flowed from this.

One of the things that has (or, may have) flowed from a world where people have been bribed, bullied, excluded, exiled - or, indeed, murdered - if they cross him, (and partly prompted my question of who - if anyone - in his immediate circle feels sufficiently secure - and respected - to be in a position to speak "truth to power"), is that, psychologically, I suspect that he is at a stage, or in a place, where he finds it (increasingly) difficult - in a world where he is surrounded by sycophants - to deal with, or to handle a situation, when people deny him, or when someone says "no" to him.

 

[SuperMatt]

The fact (and I think it is a fact) that Mr Putin is what you describe (not inaccurately) as "a sinister liar" does not detract from - and is not mutually exclusive from - the fact that he is also paranoid, and may also believe some of the stuff that comes from his mouth and mind.

His anger - real rage and raw, vindictive fury - at Ukraine (on Russian TV) this evening strikes me as genuine.

A few posts back, I wrote of how Mr Putin has been in power (uninterrupted and increasing power) for just over twenty years, and some of what may have flowed from this.

One of the things that has flowed from a world where people have been bribed, bullied, excluded, exiled - or, indeed, murdered - if they cross him, (and partly prompted my question of who - if anyone - in his immediate circle feels sufficiently secure - and respected - to be in a position to speak "truth to power"), is that, psychologically, I suspect that he is at a stage, or in a place, where he finds it (increasingly) difficult - in a world where he is surrounded by sycophants - to deal with, or to handle a situation, when people deny him, or when someone says "no" to him.

If he takes part of Ukraine but many Russian soldiers die in the effort, he may find himself on the wrong side of a popular uprising, especially given the economic toll sanctions could take on the Russian people.