Russia-Ukraine

[yaxomoxay]

Sanctions that are proportional to Putin’s aggression. Cut em off SWIFT freeze assets. Halt ALL trade, ban Russian participation from international events including junk like Eurovision. Scrap Russian sponsorship insignia from sports teams.

I wish. I read earlier that EU already clarified sanctions, but not on energy import. That is, money will flow to Russia and if they get pissed off they’ll just provide less.

 

[Renzatic]

I'm trying to figure out what people actually want to happen.

I don't think anyone wants us to involve ourselves militarily in Ukraine. We need to take other measures to address the situation.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

A few thoughts on sanctions and other economic tools, lest anyone think that they are "soft":

There are steps that can be taken which will hurt Russia, and send a signal that such an outrageous act (invasion of a sovereign state) is completely unacceptable and utterly disproportionate (and, I write this as someone who has some sympathy for the Russian leaning "separatists" in eastern Ukraine; steps - such as on language recognition - could have been taken to address their sense of alienation and grievance - some of which were quite legitimate - ages ago).

Political: Visa bans on all government ministers, on all members of the Duma and Federation Council, all governors and office-holders in Russia’s regions, on all officials in the “power ministries” and security agencies, and on the 35 individuals named in Alexei Navalny’s list.

And on their spouses, siblings, offspring, parents and other associates.

Economic: Shut Russia out of the Swift banking system, and impose sanctions on - and freeze the assets of - any and all of their banks that have links to their government and trade in the west; Announce a sweeping program of asset freezes on these individuals, and on companies linked to the Kremlin or owned (even in part) by Kremlin cronies.

Delist these companies from the exchanges in London, Frankfurt, New York and other western financial centers. Stop trading their debt, bonds and other financial instruments.

Take serious steps (a medium to long term plan) to curb our dependency on Russian oil & gas.

This will also mean persuading our own electorates - yes, our Green leaning electorates - to slow down the pace of environmental change away from carbon; in other words, would I be prepared to pollute the environment - keep coal, for example - burning to ensure western homes remain heated while we reduce our dependence on Russian energy and simultaneously take around a decade to develop alternative sources of fuel? Yes, I would.

Our electorates need to be advised that actions have consequences and that if you own the action, you also own the consequence.

Diplomatic: Promote bare bones embassies, and shut Russian consular and "trade" missions. (Yes, that will be reciprocated passionately with vehement vengeance by the Russians).

Cultural: Remove Russia from the Eurovision song contest.

Refuse to play football matches in Russia, impose sanctions - and freeze assets of - on Russians owning media in the west, or on owning football clubs (Chelsea, anyone?) or the like.

I would even contemplate expelling Russia from FIFA, and from European football competitions, or boycotting them. Exclusion from international sports - soft power though they are - will hurt, in reputational terms.

Expel Russia from the Olympic Games.

Remove RT and other Russian propaganda organs from the airwaves in all countries that have regulated broadcast media. (Yes, this would mean reciprocity: The BBC and others would then be exelled from Russia. So be it).

Personally, since I do not (and would not) recommend military action, I would strongly argue for any and all economic (diplomatic, cultural, and political) steps to be taken - some of which would (no, will) hurt us - that will signal, strongly, our deep disapproval of this step.

 

[SuperMatt]

I wish. I read earlier that EU already clarified sanctions, but not on energy import. That is, money will flow to Russia and if they get pissed off they’ll just provide less.

Sanctions that don’t include energy import seem pretty weak to me. Oil and gas revenues make up over a third of Russia’s economic output. Take that away and the country will suffer greatly. If countries boycott Russian oil and gas, OPEC could increase production to make up the difference.

The international community needs to find the will to work together and completely cut off Russia until they leave Ukraine.

 

[yaxomoxay]

@Scepticalscribe do you think that Putin’s game is: get Ukraine with minimal losses, then respond to European sanctions with heavy energy-related countermeasures?

I have the feeling that if he causes spikes to energy costs, and gas goes to $9/gallon or something, we’ll see disorders in Europe. Heck, if there’s a serious crisis he might even reach Rome and Berlin and be greeted as a liberator.

 

[Huntn]

Seems to be the case. I would bet a majority of Americans do not want to get militarily involved and risk nuclear war with Russia or WWIII. So then sanctions are your only option. Sorry if that makes you feel "weak", but then maybe you should be the one on the ground willing to fight the Russians.

Ultimately under this circumstance, an attack on NATO member states would be the trigger to get us fighting over there. Now as far as not wanting WWIII, a lot of consideration has to go into how far do you allow a dictator with nukes to abuse his neighbors?

Btw, how do you feel about NATO and the US’s obligation to it’s mutual support?

My impression is that at this point Ukraine is expendable and I’m not prepared to assign blame. There are others here that seem to be better educated on the circumstances that kept Ukraine from becoming a NATO member.

Sure we will “punish“ Russia with sanctions, and maybe it might tilt the landscape against him eventually, but it’s like don’t hold your breath.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

The only upside is that at least we have an international consensus we would never had otherwise

I think one of the most disturbing aspects is outside Putin’s circle and braindead contrarians nobody is looking at this and going “Well, that was totally justified.” Putin attempted a very narrow justification and when that didn’t work he just said fuck it. There was never a response that would have prevented him from going forward with this. This is about as black and white as they come.

 

[Huntn]

@Scepticalscribe do you think that Putin’s game is: get Ukraine with minimal losses, then respond to European sanctions with heavy energy-related countermeasures?

I have the feeling that if he causes spikes to energy costs, and gas goes to $9/gallon or something, we’ll see disorders in Europe. Heck, if there’s a serious crisis he might even reach Rome and Berlin and be greeted as a liberator.

The speculation I’m hearing is that the goal is to set up a Russian friendly puppet government in Kiev.

 

[yaxomoxay]

The speculation I’m hearing is that the goal is to set up a Russian friendly puppet government in Kiev.

That is a possibility, but my concern is about what will follow. I don’t see him just staying quiet when he can truly strangle Europe.

 

[MarkusL]

I think NATO should have rules for how much money the member states are allowed to spend on the enemy’s military, just like they have rules for minimum spending on their own military.

 

[yaxomoxay]

Not sure if Italian news is overly dramatic, but they’re reporting Russian troops are already near Kiev, with very little resistance, and the expectation is that the capital will fall in the matter of a few hours.

 

[Huntn]

That is a possibility, but my concern is about what will follow. I don’t see him just staying quiet when he can truly strangle Europe.

We’d better be ready for a fight to commit our troops to. And while there is a sincere desire to keep politics out of this particular thread, you’d really have to examine the current state of politics in the United States to get a handle on our mutual willingness to fulfill our obligations to NATO vs it’s not in my backyard. And then think about who is the President when such a decision has to be made.

 

[yaxomoxay]

We’d better be ready for a fight to commit our troops to. And while there is a sincere desire to keep politics out of this particular thread, you’d really have to examine the current state of politics in the United States to get a handle on our mutual willingness to fulfill our obligations to NATO vs it’s not in my backyard.

Well, technically this is not really a NATO obligation.

 

[quagmire]

Sanctions (especially robust, far-reaching and comprehensive sanctions, not just the appearance of sanctions) are - and can be - exceptionally effective.

Very effective, and this sort of "soft power" tool is one at which the EU excels and has considerable experience and expertise at.

However, it is not immediately effective - they can take months, and years to bite fully.

For an audience weaned on sound-bites, a 24 hour news cycle, and with a limited attention span, a focus on economic hits can look less than exciting.

Oh don't take me stating that as my actual position.

I think sanctions at this moment is the right response to the invasion. I would be for Russia being removed from SWIFT, but it sounds like EU countries are not onboard with it yet where the US sounds like it is open to.

 

[Huntn]

Well, technically this is not really a NATO obligation.

I was responding to your comment that you are worried he won’t stop there. I need to look on the map and see how many other non NATO countries there are for him to attack. But I was presuming your further action comment would involve a NATO member state.

That said, Ukraine is the second time he has attacked a sovern Nation. What does NATO do for the next country that comes under his sights? Sure, after Ukraine, he might let things cool down, but NATO had better damned sure have plans set up well in advance for the next country on his list and I would think it would have to include more than puffing one’s feathers and imposing financial sanctions.

 

[quagmire]

I was responding to your comment that you are worried he won’t stop there. I need to look on the map and see how many other non NATO countries there are for him to attack. But I was presuming your further action comment would involve a NATO member state.

That said, Ukraine is the second time he has attacked a sovern Nation. What does NATO do for the next country that comes under his sights? Sure, after Ukraine, he might let things cool down, but NATO had better damned sure have plans set up well in advance for the next country on his list and I would think it would have to include more than puffing one’s feathers and imposing financial sanctions.

NATO is a defense alliance for member states. Russia invading a non-NATO member would be none of NATO's business.

Now if the US, UK, France, etc want to separately get militarily involved if Putin invades yet another sovereign non-member nation then that is on them. But they can't drag other NATO members into it.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

A few thoughts on sanctions and other economic tools, lest anyone think that they are "soft":

There are steps that can be taken which will hurt Russia, and send a signal that such an outrageous act (invasion of a sovereign state) is completely unacceptable and utterly disproportionate (and, I write this as someone who has some sympathy for the Russian leaning "separatists" in eastern Ukraine; steps - such as on language recognition - could have been taken to address their sense of alienation and grievance - some of which were quite legitimate - ages ago).

Political: Visa bans on all government ministers, on all members of the Duma and Federation Council, all governors and office-holders in Russia’s regions, on all officials in the “power ministries” and security agencies, and on the 35 individuals named in Alexei Navalny’s list.

And on their spouses, siblings, offspring, parents and other associates.

Economic: Shut Russia out of the Swift banking system, and impose sanctions on - and freeze the assets of - any and all of their banks that have links to their government and trade in the west; Announce a sweeping program of asset freezes on these individuals, and on companies linked to the Kremlin or owned (even in part) by Kremlin cronies.

Delist these companies from the exchanges in London, Frankfurt, New York and other western financial centers. Stop trading their debt, bonds and other financial instruments.

Take serious steps (a medium to long term plan) to curb our dependency on Russian oil & gas.

This will also mean persuading our own electorates - yes, our Green leaning electorates - to slow down the pace of environmental change away from carbon; in other words, would I be prepared to pollute the environment - keep coal, for example - burning to ensure western homes remain heated while we reduce our dependence on Russian energy and simultaneously take around a decade to develop alternative sources of fuel? Yes, I would.

Our electorates need to be advised that actions have consequences and that if you own the action, you also own the consequence.

Diplomatic: Promote bare bones embassies, and shut Russian consular and "trade" missions. (Yes, that will be reciprocated passionately with vehement vengeance by the Russians).

Cultural: Remove Russia from the Eurovision song contest.

Refuse to play football matches in Russia, impose sanctions - and freeze assets of - on Russians owning media in the west, or on owning football clubs (Chelsea, anyone?) or the like.

I would even contemplate expelling Russia from FIFA, and from European football competitions, or boycotting them. Exclusion from international sports - soft power though they are - will hurt, in reputational terms.

Expel Russia from the Olympic Games.

Remove RT and other Russian propaganda organs from the airwaves in all countries that have regulated broadcast media. (Yes, this would mean reciprocity: The BBC and others would then be exelled from Russia. So be it).

Personally, since I do not (and would not) recommend military action, I would strongly argue for any and all economic (diplomatic, cultural, and political) steps to be taken - some of which would (no, will) hurt us - that will signal, strongly, our deep disapproval of this step.

At the risk of quoting myself, a few thoughts (and suggestions or recommendations) for anyone who thinks sanctions, or socio-economic-cultural political responses are "weak".

@Scepticalscribe do you think that Putin’s game is: get Ukraine with minimal losses, then respond to European sanctions with heavy energy-related countermeasures?

I have the feeling that if he causes spikes to energy costs, and gas goes to $9/gallon or something, we’ll see disorders in Europe. Heck, if there’s a serious crisis he might even reach Rome and Berlin and be greeted as a liberator.

Yes.

However, he will have a job holding the west of Ukraine, - nothing will persuade them to accept Russian rule - and - if the threat becomes too severe - there will be a backlash in the west, i.e. western Europe.

The backlash may be twofold: Both against higher energy prices (but Governments do have tools to ameliorate this - in other words, there is no need for the market to continue to be supreme, state subsidies, state regulation of oil and gas prices - or, a reduced state tax take from energy - can all play a role), and also - to persuade the Green leaning part of the electorate that the timetable for the implementation of the environmental reforms they dream of may need to be adjusted, and that they may need to contemplate a few pressing geopolitial imperatives as they think about the threat posed by global warming.

Moreover, while we may not "understand" Russia (or their history, - and I spent a decade of my life teaching Russian and Soviet history), they, likewise, do not "understand" the west.

And no, the gloomy, bleak, murderous and intolerant history of Russian autocratic traditions will not prove attractive to anyone in western Europe, - they will not be welcomed as "liberators" - and (culturally) western Europe, unlike some of the states in central & eastern Europe - will not be seduced in any way by silly Slav sentiments of "a common culture".

In fact, the Russian Orthodox Church is so ludicrously retrograde and supportive of authoritarian traditions that it manages the amazing feat of making the Catholic Church (forget Protestant democratic traditions) look exceedingly advanced, cultured, civilised, educated and enlightened in comparison.

Anyway, such a threat - if offered - is nothing but existential: I would expect western Europe to respond (slowly, belatedly, in a moody quarrelsome manner), but to respond quite fiercely, with economic, political, cultural and diplomatic tools.

 

[yaxomoxay]

I was responding to your comment that you are worried he won’t stop there. I need to look on the map and see how many other non NATO countries there are for him to attack. But I was presuming your further action comment would involve a NATO member state.

Oh I understand. I apologize, I thought you were referring to Ukraine.

That said, Ukraine is the second time he has attacked a sovern Nation. What does NATO do for the next country that comes under his sights?

Contrary to popular belief, having a NATO action ain’t easy. Invoking article 5 is not easy and it can be done only in certain geographical areas.

Sure, after Ukraine, he might let things cool down, but NATO had better damned sure have plans set up well in advance for the next country on his list and I would think it would have to include more than puffing one’s feathers and imposing financial sanctions.

I don’t think that Putin will attack a NATO country, but I think once Ukraine is his, he’ll impose very tough sanctions on energy export which will be lifted only if sanctions against Russia are lifted.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Oh don't take me stating that as my actual position.

I think sanctions at this moment is the right response to the invasion. I would be for Russia being removed from SWIFT, but it sounds like EU countries are not onboard with it yet where the US sounds like it is open to.

It (Russia removal from SWIFT) will take us some time, but I would expect it to be implemented once western European states recognise the current Russian government (and its actions) for the threat it is to them.

 

[yaxomoxay]

the amazing feat of making the Catholic Church (forget Protestant democratic traditions) look cultured, civilised, educated and enlightened.

Hey!!!

Thanks for the reply. You’re right, I am very curious to see how he’ll manage west Ukraine.