Russia-Ukraine

[SuperMatt]

Putin counted on the west's uncertainty if he crossed the line. So, he crossed it.

And, no one really knows what we should do next. Putin counts on that too.

Both situations are temporary, but the damage is done already. We just sat around and watched a country in Europe partition another one, even as the UN Security Council was meeting to confirm its impotence.

China is being a little more cautious this time about what it says about Russia v Ukrainian turf, but it will print money for Vladimir for awhile the same as China did after Crimea annexation, until ways around the sanctions are found, like they were before. They have a lot of business together now anyway with their pipelines under construction.

Anyway every time we see the tip of some iceberg regarding laundered money or questionable tax havens, it's good to remember we've only seen the tip of an iceberg. All those not-really-regular banks around the globe in places like Kazakhstan and elsewhere in Central Asia and the Middle East are also just tips of icebergs.

Do we imagine those who have been sanctioned for years now have just sighed and said wow we can hardly even buy a loaf of bread these days... What do we think they were doing while sanctions were being debated, sitting around waiting for them to hit?

Make no mistake, money talks last and sometimes at lightning speed before sanctions do hit. And there's always the high dollar version of hawala when it comes to implementation. What's a few hundred million or a couple billion in a network of friends when a large asset transfer is desired without visibly "moving money". It's not different from the far more ordinary amounts and users of hawala around the world. Maybe it would take more trust to move a couple billion that way, but then anyone with a huge amount of dough to move has access to ways to ensure that trust is the better part of misplaced valor in thievery.

The whole thing about the EU being wary of banning Russia from using the Swift exchange, what do we think that wariness is about anyway? Banning any country from using regular wire transfer would get in the way of some big (if ordinary) and not necessarily very public conduct of "business as usual". All those rules for banks about knowing your customers don't preclude banks from deciding yeah I know this guy and I know how to have his back while protecting my own a^^ as well. Meanwhile the money flows in plain view so to speak over Swift because there's always some low man on the totem pole to take the hit if fraud or money laundering or sanctions violations are later discovered.

It's a mess. It was always going to be a mess. I was hoping Putin would die peacefully in bed sometime after a big dinner and a few glasses of whatever, with his big dreams for lost empire still unrealized.

All those “Panama Papers” that were greeted with a shrug by Congress gave us a hint of who sanctions really hurt. Putin and the other billionaires in the world have illicitly moved money to safe havens all over the globe.

The hope for sanctions will have to be that they cause enough pain to either the general public in Russia or the businessmen who didn’t have enough hidden away to recover. Then they will be able to put pressure on Putin. As for him, he’s set for life regardless of any sanctions.

 

[Eric]

We're all there for them.

 

[lizkat]

All those “Panama Papers” that were greeted with a shrug by Congress gave us a hint of who sanctions really hurt. Putin and the other billionaires in the world have illicitly moved money to safe havens all over the globe.

The hope for sanctions will have to be that they cause enough pain to either the general public in Russia or the businessmen who didn’t have enough hidden away to recover. Then they will be able to put pressure on Putin. As for him, he’s set for life regardless of any sanctions.

Putin possibly will be angered past rationality if political pressure from within Russia (or maybe from China) comes to bear on him via effects of newly added western sanctions.

The part that bothers me about "truly crippling" economic sanctions is remembering how dangerous it was for a dog that belonged to one of my brothers to corner a woodchuck at the junction of a couple stone walls and to torment the creature by holding it at bay.

There finally comes a time when a cornered rodent figures ok I got nothing to lose but I'm not going quietly. Sure the Doberman broke that sucker's neck after it finally lunged at the dog's throat, but the vet's bill for damage to the Dobie ran to well over a grand. Another inch over and the dog would have bled to death inside of a minute.

Putin has nukes. Is he nuts enough to use them? I dunno. Maybe Putin doesn't know either. Once a war starts, anything can happen. We're in uncharted territory now. My own worst nightmare is that we might not be sure who all has a nuke, including in that part of the world despite all past efforts to ensure accountability.

So Putin might not be considering using tactical nuclear weapons but no one knows who else might decide that now's the time to stir the pot and throw one into the mix. Fog of war is fog of war. There are always people willing to take advantage of it in their own ways for their own purposes.

Putin has escalated past some initial Western expectations by actually shelling facilities in western Ukraine. But since --as others here have said-- it costs money to have military forces deployed, so it was probably always going to be either stand them down pretty soon or else get on with an invasion. Until he said he meant to"demilitarize" Ukraine, I sure didn't think he'd immediately attack sites other than some points in the east that had been offering problematic resistance to the pro-insurgents there. I guess Putin figured in for a penny, in for a pound. It may have been a terrible miscalculation (for everyone).

 

[Macky-Mac]

They're considerably more extreme than what's been levied previously. Right now, the intentions are to attempt to prevent Putin from funding any long term military action by crippling the Russian economy.

I guess we'll see how well it works over the coming months.

Crippling the Russian economy may be what's being talked about in some sectors, but the international unity required to actually attempt it simply doesn't seem to exist.

 

[yaxomoxay]

I sure didn't think he'd immediately attack sites other than some points in the east that had been offering problematic resistance to the pro-insurgents there.

I don’t see how people could think he’d do otherwise. The price of going halfway is always very close to the price of going all the way in. There was no way in heaven on earth that he would’ve gone through all this trouble just for a couple of miserable eastern regions.

 

[Macky-Mac]

and the possibility of stronger sanctions seems to be slipping away

from The Guardian;

Kyiv furious as EU wavers on banning Russia from Swift payment system​

Ukraine foreign minister voices anger as EU leaders likely to decide against blocking Russia from international payments system

The EU faced furious remonstrations from Kyiv as Europe’s leaders looked set to hold back from imposing the potentially most damaging sanction on Russia, even as the Kremlin lay siege to Ukraine via land, air and sea....

 

[Huntn]

They are already moving military assets to NATO members in Eastern Europe to shore up their defenses.

But to answer your country to how many non-NATO countries get taken over before NATO reacts? Every single one because NATO will not preemptively attack Russia. A member state needs to be attacked first before NATO will take military action against the attacking country. Keep in mind Article 5 was only activated ONCE in history which is after 9/11.

Again NATO is all about defense. It isn't an alliance meant to go on the offensive based on perceived threats put upon a member nation. The aggressor needs to act first. No, " Get them before they can get me".

You sound like you are trying to educate me. I don’t know how you got the idea I think we as part of NATO should be preemptively attacking Russia. I have not said or implied that.

NATO is an organization designed for group defense, without a doubt. And what I said, is when the next country is assaulted by Russia, NATO member states will have to decide if they should just stand by, discuss how many countries they are willing allow be absorbed, or get into the conflict. If you recall the US got support from some NATO Members when we were the aggressors. So as a group, I fully expect NATO to not only discuss the situation, but decide on what is a prudent course of action as members of the international community facing a common threat. And Russia today is a common threat.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

and the possibility of stronger sanctions seems to be slipping away

from The Guardian;

That was hours ago.

Given the (legitimate) historical & current security concerns of the Baltic states, and of the security concerns of some of the former Warsaw Pact states, and also, given that sentiment towards possible NATO membership is viewed more warmly and is being floated (in political circles, even in left wing political circles) in (historically neutral) countries such as Sweden and Finland, and, furthermore, given that the outrageous Russian military adventure in Ukraine is going to get nastier (reports are that Kyiv is being shelled by missiles tonight), uglier, and far more intemperate, - and will be resisted vigorously by the Ukrainians - I would expect to see European public (and political) opinion to harden (further) considerably, as it has done already since the start of the week.

 

[Macky-Mac]

That was hours ago.

Given the (legitimate) historical & current security concerns of the Baltic states, and of some of the former Warsaw Pact states, and also, given that sentiment towards possible NATO membership is viewed more warmly and is being floated (in political circles, even in left wing political circles) in countries such as Sweden and Finland, and, furthermore, given that the outrageous Russian military adventure in Ukraine is going to get nastier (reports are that Kyiv is being shelled by missiles tonight), uglier, and far more intemperate, - and will be resisted vigorously by the Ukrainians - I would expect to see European public (and political) opinion to harden (further) considerably, as it has done already since the start of the week.

one can only hope that the current crisis will lead to some serious reassessment of the security situation......often the easiest way to get past and then ignore the problem seems to be what inevitably happens

 

[quagmire]

You sound like you are trying to educate me. I don’t know how you got the idea I think we as part of NATO should be preemptively attacking Russia. I have not said or implied that.

NATO is an organization designed for group defense, without a doubt. And what I said, is when the next country is assaulted by Russia, NATO member states will have to decide if they should just stand by, discuss how many countries they are willing allow be absorbed, or get into the conflict. If you recall the US got support from some NATO Members when we were the aggressors. So as a group, I fully expect NATO to not only discuss the situation, but decide on what is a prudent course of action as members of the international community facing a common threat. And Russia today is a common threat.

So asking how many nations NATO will let fall to Russia is not the right wording then. Proper question is how many countries will the EU tolerate before they take action would be a better phrasing or just European countries in general.

 

[Huntn]

So asking how many nations NATO will let fall to Russia is not the right wording then. Proper question is how many countries will the EU tolerate before they take action would be a better phrasing or just European countries in general.

I accept your opinion as yours, but I like my wording. Who better to consider the outlaw actions of an aggressive nation than a military self defense alliance who is based in close proximity (the same continent) to the atrocities?

 

[lizkat]

I don’t see how people could think he’d do otherwise. The price of going halfway is always very close to the price of going all the way in. There was no way in heaven on earth that he would’ve gone through all this trouble just for a couple of miserable eastern regions.

I think Putin will have overreached in the short term, and it may damage his longer term aspirations because it's going to be costly indeed in terms of the upcoming hits to his country's economy.,

Remarks in the UN General Assembly aside (about respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity), some European states just to west of Ukraine may well have somewhat different views of Russia supporting insurgents in the eastern provinces versus Russia actually attacking points elsewhere in the country, never mind Putin going on to make clear he means to "demilitarize" that entire nation. This due to the different histories of the two regions in terms of religion, language and culture.

Also, western Ukraine seems to have been viewed by some Europeans, for better or worse in terms of realities, as a kind of buffer zone between the rest of Europe and "that mess in [eastern] Ukraine". So this morning was a kind of epiphany, since in fact there is no buffer zone, and the insurgency in the east of Ukraine has suddenly turned into "war, in Europe". A war of international aggression in Europe, in 2022.

War on your very doorstep tends to make you think differently about how to regard what you thought was some mess down the road. There's no way Putin can have gamed out all the potential consequences of that kind of wakeup call in Europe early this morning.

He might have done better to settle for half a loaf at a time... the way he kind of suggested he was doing with his annexation of Crimea. Half a loaf here, half of half of a loaf there, pretty soon it's half of only a sliver of bread left in the loaf... but the world is paying much, much more attention this morning after Putin basically went for the whole bakery.

Still the question remains what to do in response besides sanctions. Raising war against war is just hellish anyway, and I suppose Putin banks on the war weariness of the USA putting a damper on much of a military response to his aggression in Ukraine.

 

[leman]

We were communicating with our family in Kyiv, the city is being bombed. I barely go any sleep last night trying to catch some news. I am sad, confused and angry. There is still a slight hope that Ukraine can hold — the difference in morale is staggering and you don't need as many resources for defending as you need for attacking. Regardless, the reaction from the world community, especially our European is disappointing. From long-term historical perspective, I can kind of understand it, I mean, who cares about some Eastern European folks if that's about money and having a working heating system, but I would have hoped that the XIX century crap was behind us. If the world community lets this slide, it will be the end of the democratic trade-oriented world established after the Second World War. Wars of aggression in "civilised" world are back.

 

[Zoidberg]

Putin counted on the west's uncertainty if he crossed the line. So, he crossed it.

And, no one really knows what we should do next. Putin counts on that too.

Both situations are temporary, but the damage is done already. We just sat around and watched a country in Europe partition another one, even as the UN Security Council was meeting to confirm its impotence.

China is being a little more cautious this time about what it says about Russia v Ukrainian turf, but it will print money for Vladimir for awhile the same as China did after Crimea annexation, until ways around the sanctions are found, like they were before. They have a lot of business together now anyway with their pipelines under construction.

Anyway every time we see the tip of some iceberg regarding laundered money or questionable tax havens, it's good to remember we've only seen the tip of an iceberg. All those not-really-regular banks around the globe in places like Kazakhstan and elsewhere in Central Asia and the Middle East are also just tips of icebergs.

Do we imagine those who have been sanctioned for years now have just sighed and said wow we can hardly even buy a loaf of bread these days... What do we think they were doing while sanctions were being debated, sitting around waiting for them to hit?

Make no mistake, money talks last and sometimes at lightning speed before sanctions do hit. And there's always the high dollar version of hawala when it comes to implementation. What's a few hundred million or a couple billion in a network of friends when a large asset transfer is desired without visibly "moving money". It's not different from the far more ordinary amounts and users of hawala around the world. Maybe it would take more trust to move a couple billion that way, but then anyone with a huge amount of dough to move has access to ways to ensure that trust is the better part of misplaced valor in thievery.

The whole thing about the EU being wary of banning Russia from using the Swift exchange, what do we think that wariness is about anyway? Banning any country from using regular wire transfer would get in the way of some big (if ordinary) and not necessarily very public conduct of "business as usual". All those rules for banks about knowing your customers don't preclude banks from deciding yeah I know this guy and I know how to have his back while protecting my own a^^ as well. Meanwhile the money flows in plain view so to speak over Swift because there's always some low man on the totem pole to take the hit if fraud or money laundering or sanctions violations are later discovered.

It's a mess. It was always going to be a mess. I was hoping Putin would die peacefully in bed sometime after a big dinner and a few glasses of whatever, with his big dreams for lost empire still unrealized.

Yes. The lesson learned here is that if you invade quickly enough, you will get away with it because by the time the West agrees on the response, it will already be over. The West will basically shrug their shoulders, tap your wrist and say “don’t do it again!”.

Also, with bitcoin, it will be even easier for them to evade the sanctions.

A former comedian and a former boxer have done their best as politicians and are getting ready to –probably– die, while professional Italian and Belgian politicians are negotiating excluding luxury goods and jewels from the sanctions because Russian oligarchs are important customers.

 

[User.168]

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[leman]

View attachment 11938

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1497128120746401799/

I hope they continue coming in like this. Easier to burn. Bastards.

 

[leman]

Same area, probably same armored vehicle deliberately crushing a civilian car:

verkhovna_rada_ua

You can view and join @verkhovna_rada_ua right away.

t.me

Luckily, the car driver survived and was rescued by the neighborhood community

https://t.me/hk_kiev1/11252

Frankly, I really don’t understand Russian logic here. I mean, they could probably hold some eastern cities - folks there are generally apolitical and will cooperate. But Kyiv? It’s a big city with patriotic and armed population that will not tolerate occupation.

P.S. More that 10000 assault rifles have been distributed in Kyiv to trained volunteers. That is going to a nightmare for any occupant to hold.

 

[User.45]

LONDON — Britain’s defense secretary, Ben Wallace, said on Friday that the verified assessment of his country’s intelligence services was that Russian forces “hadn’t achieved their goals so far” and had failed to meet any of their objectives in the first day of their invasion of Ukraine.

Mr. Wallace, speaking to the BBC on Friday morning, said President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia had so far failed in an attempt to take a key airport north of Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital. Russian forces also lost approximately 450 troops and a significant number of tanks, and have so far not broken through the line of control in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, he said.

“Putin had in his mind and in his articles and speeches that somehow Ukrainians were waiting to be liberated by the great czar, and that he would turn up in Ukraine and they would all cheer him,” Mr. Wallace said. “Of course we all saw that’s not true.”
He added that while Ukrainians were bravely standing up for their values, Mr. Putin had also grossly miscalculated the support he would receive at home.
“It shows how out of touch with his own people he is,” Mr. Wallace said, pointing to antiwar protests in several Russian cities.
Mr. Wallace repeated that he had no intention of ordering British forces into a ground battle in Ukraine, despite what he called Russia’s “naked military aggression.”
“I said very clearly about a month ago that we are not going to be sending British troops to fight directly with Russian troops,” he said.
Instead, Mr. Wallace again emphasized the new sanctions imposed by Britain, which include a ban on Russia’s Aeroflot flights. Russia retaliated against those actions on Friday morning by banning British flights from its own airspace.

from NYT

Ukraine crisis: Russia has failed to take any of its major objectives, lost 450 personnel and made 'limited progress', Ministry of Defence says

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace tells Sky News it is the UK government's view that Russian President Vladimir Putin intends "to invade the whole of Ukraine". But he said Russia is "behind its hoped-for timetable" in the military action against its neighbour.

news.sky.com

With video.


----------

Thinking about this, Biden's strategy definitely achieved one thing. It placed Putin in a position where the decision to invade would be unambiguously perceived as an act of aggression. This has been the biggest failure of Russian propaganda since Putin took power, IMHO. Not even Russian propaganda sites could produce a coherent narrative to justify the invasion and this is something really new - at least to me. Putin took a risk that is unlike him and the only way I can resolve this uncharacteristic behavior is that there is a significant change in his personal circumstances where the risk taken became worthwhile.

So Putin has a relatively low morale invading army. International condemnation even by close allies and to date, a slower-than-expected invasion. I'm deeply disappointed by Western powers, however. There should have been a much more robust and decisive economic response primed and ready to be triggered at a moment like this. Going all in with sanctions in the acute phase of this invasion could save the lives of both Ukrainian forces and civilians and it's a moral obligation (something I don't take lightly). It's also insane to see how it's not obvious to everyone that this might by a direct invasion against Ukraine, but it's an indirect attack against democracies. Putin's propaganda machine might recoup later on and then it will be much harder to achieve the same impact.

Lastly, this is why I hated Bush's rhetoric on spreading Democracy. It's an idea, a way of life, a principle that has to be congruent with the citizens of a nation. You can't force it. So the verbiage of "defending democracy" in places that aren't ready for such is nearly completely meaningless in my opinion. Protecting Democracy is actually about protecting nations like Ukraine.

 

[Agent47]

We were communicating with our family in Kyiv, the city is being bombed. I barely go any sleep last night trying to catch some news. I am sad, confused and angry. There is still a slight hope that Ukraine can hold — the difference in morale is staggering and you don't need as many resources for defending as you need for attacking. Regardless, the reaction from the world community, especially our European is disappointing. From long-term historical perspective, I can kind of understand it, I mean, who cares about some Eastern European folks if that's about money and having a working heating system, but I would have hoped that the XIX century crap was behind us. If the world community lets this slide, it will be the end of the democratic trade-oriented world established after the Second World War. Wars of aggression in "civilised" world are back.

I agree, its disappointing. As a European I am ashamed of the west (=us) not supporting Ukraine as we should.

Pretty much each person I spoke to feels the same. Its just - western politicians are mostly cowards, dilettantes and certaily not the leaders we should have.

 

[User.168]

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