Russia-Ukraine

[Scepticalscribe]

The discussion about the threat of strangling supply, higher oil and gas supplies (which is real) misses the point firstly, that many western Euriopean countries have strong social democratic traditions, (irrespective of who is in power), and secondly, that a threat to the economic survival of - or the socio-political-cultural traditions (i.e. democracy) of - can mean that free market "sacred cows" - the idea that one cannot interfere with the "workings" of a market - can be dismantled in the face of a threat to the state.

Thus, I would expect to see (and would strongly support) state subsidies re (domestic and business) oil & gas prices; state regulation re energy prices; and - perhaps - a reduced state tax take from energy.

In other words, even in the absence of military adventures (NATO), western Governments (and the EU) are not helpless.

This also means persuading Greens (including Greens in government) that sometimes you have to attempt to bridge the dilemma of saving the planet or securing your country's independence and energy supply in a way that your citizens can afford but which may cost the planet.

What is striking about energy threats is that even during the very worst of the Cold War the old USSR maintained the security of energy supplies to the west (and yes, they needed the hard currency).

 

[User.168]

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[yaxomoxay]

Good article by Alexander Vindman on The Atlantic.

America Could Have Done So Much More to Protect Ukraine

The paths to deterrence were not taken.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[User.168]

.

 

[yaxomoxay]

Thanks for that. It led me to this also excellent article

The Reason Putin Would Risk War

He is threatening to invade Ukraine because he wants democracy to fail—and not just in that country.

www.theatlantic.com

Yes, another excellent article.

 

[Zoidberg]

I would expect western Europe to respond (slowly, belatedly, in a moody quarrelsome manner), but to respond quite fiercely, with cultural tools.

Does that mean we're going to ban the export of Adidas tracksuits and second hand German sedans to Russia?

 

[User.45]

Does that mean we're going to ban the export of Adidas tracksuits and second hand German sedans to Russia?

The tracksuits are coming from china, so they are probably safe…

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Does that mean we're going to ban the export of Adidas tracksuits and second hand German sedans to Russia?

Whatever it takes.

 

[Huntn]

NATO is a defense alliance for member states. Russia invading a non-NATO member would be none of NATO's business.

Now if the US, UK, France, etc want to separately get militarily involved if Putin invades yet another sovereign non-member nation then that is on them. But they can't drag other NATO members into it.

I did not say or imply they would try to drag other countries in. I said NATO should be ready for this, have considered it, and already made a decision in advance on what course of action they will take for the next non-NATO country with a target on it’s back. How many countries fall before your alliance decides to physically counter? Now I admit the weak point of my statement is that I don’t how many vulnerable former satellites of the USSR exist that not have become NATO members.

Plus this is who Europe/NATO is dealing with, a not so veiled nuclear strike threat. it can be asked is the Russian Autocrat in a rational state of mind??

Putin threatens countries 'tempted to intervene' in Ukraine​

Putin threatens countries 'tempted to intervene' in Ukraine

Putin threatens countries 'tempted to intervene' in Ukraine

news.yahoo.com

Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to fend off anyone who wants to help Ukraine amid his military action against the country, threatening to deliver "consequences as you have never experienced in your history."

 

[Huntn]

Oh I understand. I apologize, I thought you were referring to Ukraine.

Contrary to popular belief, having a NATO action ain’t easy. Invoking article 5 is not easy and it can be done only in certain geographical areas.

I don’t think that Putin will attack a NATO country, but I think once Ukraine is his, he’ll impose very tough sanctions on energy export which will be lifted only if sanctions against Russia are lifted.

No problem.

…if his own economy can stand it. Who is best prepared to weather such a standoff? It could be argued that the dictator has the advantage over the democratic leader. Maybe…

 

[yaxomoxay]

No problem.

…if his own economy can stand it. Who is best prepared to weather such a standoff? It could be argued that the dictator has the advantage over the democratic leader. Maybe…

Good question.
I read earlier on Asia Times that Putin and Xi signed a deal to export gas and other resources to China, which will increase Russian export by 10x. There’s also some sort of exchange based on technology.

 

[Macky-Mac]

Sanctions after Crimea failed to change that situation and they failed to prevent the current situation.

 

[Huntn]

Thanks for that. It led me to this also excellent article

The Reason Putin Would Risk War

He is threatening to invade Ukraine because he wants democracy to fail—and not just in that country.

www.theatlantic.com

I’ve loved The Atlantic since the 90s when my wife discovered it for me.

 

[Huntn]

Sanctions after Crimea failed to change that situation and they failed to prevent the current situation.

Maybe these are new and improved sanctions.

 

[Macky-Mac]

Maybe these are new and improved sanctions.

hmmmmm.....indeed........but since the main practical use of sanctions is to express dismay, annoyance and distress, it's hard to imagine that any of the new & improved will really be any better

 

[Eric]

Sanctions after Crimea failed to change that situation and they failed to prevent the current situation.

Even Biden said it wouldn't prevent Putin from attacking but it will at least isolate them and cripple a lot of their money, would also like to see Germany step up to the plate here too. Welcome to the site BTW.

 

[Eric]

 

[quagmire]

I did not say or imply they would try to drag other countries in. I said NATO should be ready for this, have considered it, and already made a decision in advance on what course of action they will take for the next non-NATO country with a target on it’s back. How many countries fall before your alliance decides to physically counter? Now I admit the weak point of my statement is that I don’t how many vulnerable former satellites of the USSR exist that not have become NATO members.

Plus this is who Europe/NATO is dealing with, a not so veiled nuclear strike threat. it can be asked is the Russian Autocrat in a rational state of mind??

Putin threatens countries 'tempted to intervene' in Ukraine​

Putin threatens countries 'tempted to intervene' in Ukraine

Putin threatens countries 'tempted to intervene' in Ukraine

news.yahoo.com

Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to fend off anyone who wants to help Ukraine amid his military action against the country, threatening to deliver "consequences as you have never experienced in your history."

They are already moving military assets to NATO members in Eastern Europe to shore up their defenses.

But to answer your country to how many non-NATO countries get taken over before NATO reacts? Every single one because NATO will not preemptively attack Russia. A member state needs to be attacked first before NATO will take military action against the attacking country. Keep in mind Article 5 was only activated ONCE in history which is after 9/11.

Again NATO is all about defense. It isn't an alliance meant to go on the offensive based on perceived threats put upon a member nation. The aggressor needs to act first. No, " Get them before they can get me".

 

[lizkat]

I also don't get people who disagree with any sanctions claiming they are ineffective, but don't want to get militarily involved. What should we do then?

Putin counted on the west's uncertainty if he crossed the line. So, he crossed it.

And, no one really knows what we should do next. Putin counts on that too.

Both situations are temporary, but the damage is done already. We just sat around and watched a country in Europe partition another one, even as the UN Security Council was meeting to confirm its impotence.

China is being a little more cautious this time about what it says about Russia v Ukrainian turf, but it will print money for Vladimir for awhile the same as China did after Crimea annexation, until ways around the sanctions are found, like they were before. They have a lot of business together now anyway with their pipelines under construction.

Anyway every time we see the tip of some iceberg regarding laundered money or questionable tax havens, it's good to remember we've only seen the tip of an iceberg. All those not-really-regular banks around the globe in places like Kazakhstan and elsewhere in Central Asia and the Middle East are also just tips of icebergs.

Do we imagine those who have been sanctioned for years now have just sighed and said wow we can hardly even buy a loaf of bread these days... What do we think they were doing while sanctions were being debated, sitting around waiting for them to hit?

Make no mistake, money talks last and sometimes at lightning speed before sanctions do hit. And there's always the high dollar version of hawala when it comes to implementation. What's a few hundred million or a couple billion in a network of friends when a large asset transfer is desired without visibly "moving money". It's not different from the far more ordinary amounts and users of hawala around the world. Maybe it would take more trust to move a couple billion that way, but then anyone with a huge amount of dough to move has access to ways to ensure that trust is the better part of misplaced valor in thievery.

The whole thing about the EU being wary of banning Russia from using the Swift exchange, what do we think that wariness is about anyway? Banning any country from using regular wire transfer would get in the way of some big (if ordinary) and not necessarily very public conduct of "business as usual". All those rules for banks about knowing your customers don't preclude banks from deciding yeah I know this guy and I know how to have his back while protecting my own a^^ as well. Meanwhile the money flows in plain view so to speak over Swift because there's always some low man on the totem pole to take the hit if fraud or money laundering or sanctions violations are later discovered.

It's a mess. It was always going to be a mess. I was hoping Putin would die peacefully in bed sometime after a big dinner and a few glasses of whatever, with his big dreams for lost empire still unrealized.

 

[Renzatic]

Maybe these are new and improved sanctions.

They're considerably more extreme than what's been levied previously. Right now, the intentions are to attempt to prevent Putin from funding any long term military action by crippling the Russian economy.

I guess we'll see how well it works over the coming months.