Russia-Ukraine

[SuperMatt]

According to reports (Guardian, Twitter, others), Mr Putin has called upon the Ukrainian Army to over throw the Ukrainian government led by Mr Zelensky.

"Take power into your own hands," he is reported to have advised the Ukrainian Army, adding, "and do not let a gang of drug addicts and neo-fascists use your families as human shields."

A few things to note:


1. Mr Putin is now clear that one of his key aims - one of his main aims - in Ukraine is regime change.

Yes, we suspected this, but now we know it.

2. I would suspect that Ukrainian resistance is greater (and more passionate) than Mr Putin may have expected (or his sycophants led him to believe).

Moreover, while Ukrainian resistance to this invasion may be more motivated than expected (by Russia), I also suspect that Russian resistance to killing fellow Slavs may be greater than Mr Putin expected; in other words, the Russian Army may be less enthusiastic with elements of this assignment than had been expected prior to the invasion.

Certainly, it is significant that this appeal has been made to the Ukrainian Army, who are clearly defending themselves - and their country - far better than expected (and both their motivation will be quite high and, moreover, they will enjoy considerable - genuine - public support).

3. "Drug addicts": This is clearly an attack - a personal attack - on Mr Zelensky.

I observed the various rounds of the presidential election in Ukraine in 2019, and this was one of the attacks (made by his opponent, the outgoing, defeated president, Mr Poroshenko - who today was photographed holding weaponry and making clear his total support for the Ukrainian government) - targeted at Mr Zelensky.

Actually, some of the attack ads were as basic as name calling: Thus, "drug addict" (the Poroshenko campaign re Mr Zelensky) and "alcoholic" (the Zelensky campaign against Mr Poroshenko).

"Neo-fascists": Self-evident, re WW2; But - an accusation that is baseless and quite ridiculous in a "hearts'n'minds" campaign aimed at one's "Slavic brethren". You can't simultaneously be a brother to be embraced and a neo-Nazi best eliminated.

4. Other reports (from Israeli, Armenian sources among others) say that Russia is open to talks in a "neutral" venue (presumably Minsk) on the condition that Ukraine "disarms".

Elsewhere,

5: The Council of Europe have suspended Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

Ukrainians appear quite reluctant to allow Russians to take over. Putin is already tossing the idea of diplomacy out there. This tells me that he is meeting more resistance than he expected.

I saw images on The NY Times of destroyed bridges. The Ukrainians destroyed their own bridges to stop Russia’s advance. That is NOT the action of people that welcome Russia. As mentioned before, Zelensky got 73% of the vote in the last election.

Has Putin miscalculated? As others mentioned, he has been surrounded by “yes men" for many years. So it’s possible he honestly believed a larger number of Ukrainians would accept the takeover.

If Putin does pull out of Kyiv, he will most likely try to hold onto the separatist regions. No matter if he pulls back or not, sanctions need to be continued. Russia needs to be an international pariah as long as Putin is their leader. It’s time for aggressive “green energy” pushes to remove all of Russia’s leverage in the future.

 

[Macky-Mac]

I usually prefer Foreign Affairs, but The Atlantic has been superb lately

How Far Will Biden Go to Stop Putin?

The underlying purpose of American foreign policy is to prove that democracy is “not a relic of history.”

www.theatlantic.com

indeed, The Atlantic has become quite interesting in recent years

 

[Arkitect]

According to reports (Guardian, Twitter, others), Mr Putin has called upon the Ukrainian Army to over throw the Ukrainian government led by Mr Zelensky.

"Take power into your own hands," he is reported to have advised the Ukrainian Army, adding, "and do not let a gang of drug addicts and neo-fascists use your families as human shields."

Unconfirmed reports of Russian soldiers wearing Ukrainian uniforms and vehicles.

So (simplistically I agree, though looking back at history I am often surprised by how simplistic things really were)… I wonder if Putin isn't aiming to spin this as the Ukrainian army (ie. Russians posing as Ukrainians) overthrowing the "neo-Nazi, drug addicted, alcoholics etc" Ukrainian government.
These fake Ukrainians install his puppet regime and all is hunky dory for Vlad.
He can pose as a hero to his countrymen and with the press in his pocket, who's going to nay-say him?
He just needs an aircraft carrier, a banner and an ill fitting leather jacket.

Ukrainians appear quite reluctant to allow Russians to take over. Putin is already tossing the idea of diplomacy out there.

True, but only after Ukraine military surrenders.

 

[lizkat]

I don’t disagree that personalities and health are decisional factors for leaders (as for us). But unless proven somehow, I am certainly not going to fall for the gossip. Heck I remember hearing stuff in 2000 even about Mr Berlusconi as terminally ill. 22 years later he’s still alive and somewhat well.

Well considering what has happened to Navalny, et al., a Russian who doesn't see eye to eye with Putin would have to be pretty much in a bubble of his own to imagine challenging Putin in the political arena.

So... one can empathize with an average discontented Russian's possible desire to believe Putin might be gravely ill, and to seize on any such proffered rumor. It could seem an appealing thing that he sickens and so doesn't get to die "of old age," because he's not actually that old in an era when people who look after their health can live into their 90s and even beyond. That's another whole generation of "just you wait"...

 

[Agent47]

According to reports (Guardian, Twitter, others), Mr Putin has called upon the Ukrainian Army to over throw the Ukrainian government led by Mr Zelensky.

"Take power into your own hands," he is reported to have advised the Ukrainian Army, adding, "and do not let a gang of drug addicts and neo-fascists use your families as human shields."

Again, eerie resemblance between Hitler and Putin: The former also used to insult his opponents (e.g. Churchill) as being addicts

 

[lizkat]

Other reports (from Israeli, Armenian sources among others) say that Russia is open to talks in a "neutral" venue (presumably Minsk) on the condition that Ukraine "disarms".

"Neutral" surely belongs in those quotes, doesn't it. Minsk is as neutral as Putin means to make Kyiv.

 

[Macky-Mac]

4. Other reports (from Israeli, Armenian sources among others) say that Russia is open to talks in a "neutral" venue (presumably Minsk) on the condition that Ukraine "disarms".

Al Jazeera is reporting that Russia suggests Minsk with Ukraine responding that meeting in Warsaw would be acceptable from their side

 

[Arkitect]

Russia will “partly limit” access to Facebook, Russia’s censorship agency has announced.

If this situation was not so serious, we'd be laughing our butts off.

Seriously? The Russian Ministry Agency of Censorship complains about "violations of freedom of speech"!

 

[Huntn]

Before I go swimming and enjoy my normal day, I’ll say:

I not only hoped that NATO would/could have done more to prevent this unfolding tragedy perpetrated by Russia (or if you don’t like the term NATO then substitute the EU and United States). I hope we have the resolve not to destroy human civilization in the process, while caging The Bear. This is a situation were civilizations can sit back and watch the tragedy happen to their neighbors, or they take action.

Sure action is being taken, but in hindsight was there, is there enough action? Right, hindsight is 100%, maybe…

Or would enough action to prevent this, to stop a single leader of a morally bankrupt, nuclear armed nation from destroying a neighboring country, have resulted in a European War as in all of Europe at a minimum, and a nuclear 3rd WW Armageddon as a maximum? With nukes, this is a sword hanging over all of us and this might be a real cause for some level of hesitancy.

Also we tend not to learn from or remember our history: Poland 1939.

So as Ukrainians loose their lives in a blatant, unjust act of aggression, we have the luxury of debating what the appropriate action is from our relative positions of safety. I’m not being critical of forum members, the US, the EU, or NATO, I’m just depressed and making an observation about the situation.

I view these kind of events as just another nail in coffin of humanity. We are smart, but not smart enough, we are not all bad, even mostly not bad, but there are enough of us that are deadly and self destructive that I tend not to see a bright future for our species.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Russia will “partly limit” access to Facebook, Russia’s censorship agency has announced.


View attachment 11950

If this situation was not so serious, we'd be laughing our butts off.

Seriously? The Russian Ministry Agency of Censorship complains about "violations of freedom of speech"!

Yes, that is very funny, and wonderfully, bitterly ironical.

But, I cannot say that I am sorry to see someone attempt to put manners on Facebook; this is something that is long overdue.

Rather, my only regret is that it has come about via the expression of the notorious - and controlling - autocratic tendencies and traditions of the historic Russian state.

 

[lizkat]

Russia will “partly limit” access to Facebook, Russia’s censorship agency has announced.


View attachment 11950

If this situation was not so serious, we'd be laughing our butts off.

Seriously? The Russian Ministry Agency of Censorship complains about "violations of freedom of speech"!

People including Russians in Russia should at least feel free to laugh their butts off over this tweet, even if they have to turn off their phones and stick them in a jamming cage to do it privately...

On a more serious note, the unreliability of net access itself becomes a problem in the war zones as infrastructure ends up damaged whether by intent or as collateral damage.

 

[Arkitect]

Before I go swimming and enjoy my normal day, I’ll say:

I not only hoped that NATO would/could have done more to prevent this unfolding tragedy perpetrated by Russia (or if you don’t like the term NATO then substitute the EU and United States). I hope we have the resolve not to destroy human civilization in the process, while caging The Bear. This is a situation were civilizations can sit back and watch the tragedy happen to their neighbors, or they take action.

Sure action is being taken, but in hindsight was there, is there enough action? Right, hindsight is 100%, maybe…

Or would enough action to prevent this, to stop a single leader of a morally bankrupt, nuclear armed nation from destroying a neighboring country, have resulted in a European War as in all of Europe at a minimum, and a nuclear 3rd WW Armageddon as a maximum? With nukes, this is a sword hanging over all of us and this might be a real cause for some level of hesitancy.

Also we tend not to learn from or remember our history: Poland 1939.

So as Ukrainians loose their lives in a blatant, unjust act of aggression, we have the luxury of debating what the appropriate action is from our relative positions of safety. I’m not being critical of forum members, the US, the EU, or NATO, I’m just depressed and making an observation about the situation.

I view these kind of events as just another nail in coffin of humanity. We are smart, but not smart enough, we are not all bad, even mostly not bad, but there are enough of us that are deadly and self destructive that I tend not to see a bright future for our species.

I do agree… though I would say Ukraine 2022 is more akin to Czechoslovakia 1938.

Poland 1939 would in fact be… well… Poland 2022!

 

[Scepticalscribe]

And now it appears that Russia (already suspended from the Counci of Europe) has been kicked out of the Eurovision Song Contest.

Some may well laugh, but - strange as it may seem (or sound), to countries, culturs and societies who view the Eurovision Song Contest with ironical condescension - some countries in central and eastern Europe (and Russia) - and places such as Turkey - take it very seriously indeed.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

And, @Arkitect: Oh, irony, blessed irony: The Taliban have "urged restraint" on both Russia and Ukraine.

 

[SuperMatt]

I saw this concerning the UN Security Council:

The U.N. Security Council is meeting on Friday at 3 p.m. to vote on a resolution condemning Russia and demanding immediate withdrawal of troops. Russia is expected to veto the resolution. Diplomats say they hope to demonstrate Russia’s isolation.

So, if a Security Council member is killing civilians, they can still veto actions against themselves! It makes the council essentially useless when it comes to the “big 5” (France, the United Kingdom, the United States, Russia, and China) - they can literally do anything they want.

 

[SuperMatt]

Zelensky posted a video showing he hasn’t left Kyiv. I’m guessing Russian propaganda was pushing the narrative that he left.

Zelenskiy / Official

Ми тут. Ми в Києві. Ми захищаємо Україну🇺🇦

t.me

 

[Arkitect]

And now it appears that Russia (already suspended from the Counci of Europe) has been kicked out of the Eurovision Song Contest.

Some may well laugh, but - strange as it may seem (or sound), to countries, culturs and societies who view the Eurovision Song Contest with ironical condescension - some countries in central and eastern Europe (and Russia) - and places such as Turkey - take it very seriously indeed.

Last night they were still keeping to the "no place for politics in EuroVision" line…

 

[Arkitect]

I saw this concerning the UN Security Council:



So, if a Security Council member is killing civilians, they can still veto actions against themselves! It makes the council essentially useless when it comes to the “big 5” (France, the United Kingdom, the United States, Russia, and China) - they can literally do anything they want.

Always has been the way… a toothless null entity.

Number of resolutions vetoed by each of the five permanent members of the Security Council from 1946 until present. Link

 

[yaxomoxay]

I saw this concerning the UN Security Council:



So, if a Security Council member is killing civilians, they can still veto actions against themselves! It makes the council essentially useless when it comes to the “big 5” (France, the United Kingdom, the United States, Russia, and China) - they can literally do anything they want.

The UN Security Council is just a joke.

 

[Pumbaa]

And now it appears that Russia (already suspended from the Counci of Europe) has been kicked out of the Eurovision Song Contest.

Some may well laugh, but - strange as it may seem (or sound), to countries, culturs and societies who view the Eurovision Song Contest with ironical condescension - some countries in central and eastern Europe (and Russia) - and places such as Turkey - take it very seriously indeed.

And even if it is not taken seriously, kicking Russia out from whatever is the right thing to do. Happy to hear that EBU made the decision even if the wording is so and so. Now if UEFA could get off their fat corrupt asses too, that would be swell.

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1497243799889711104/