Russia-Ukraine

[ericwn]

While the world came ominously close to the brink of catastrophe during the Cuban Missile Crisis (and Russian/Soviet horror in political and military high circles were not known publicly at the time), Nikita Khrushchev was not actually removed from office until the summer of 1964, two years later.

In other words, even if there is an appetite for a leadership challenge, means, motive and opportunity may take some time to arrange.

One of the major problems with autocratic systems is the perennially pressing issue of how to set about regime change (peacefully) without destroying your system of government and/or country in the process.

In our world, (legitimate) elections give the victor a mandate (and the moral right to rule), but - of equal importance - (legitimate) elections are a mechanism that enable or permit a peaceful change of regime, one that allows the defeated candidate (candidates/party) to depart from the political stage without fear of reprisal (unles they have broken laws while in office), whereas people such as Mr Putin tend to have to face the grim chocie of dying in their beds or being over-thrown (usually violently).

You are quoting me from a way different conversation… [emoji57]

 

[Deleted member 215]

Russia now threatening Sweden and Finland over the possibility of their joining NATO:

Russia Issues Ominous Warning to Finland, Sweden Should They Join NATO

Ukraine's president confirmed that both countries had offered their support in the fight against Russia.

www.newsweek.com

 

[Arkitect]

Russia now threatening Sweden and Finland over the possibility of their joining NATO:

Russia Issues Ominous Warning to Finland, Sweden Should They Join NATO

Ukraine's president confirmed that both countries had offered their support in the fight against Russia.

www.newsweek.com

Well as the saying goes, "If you're going to get wet you may as well go swimming".

 

[Pumbaa]

Russia now threatening Sweden and Finland over the possibility of their joining NATO:

Russia Issues Ominous Warning to Finland, Sweden Should They Join NATO

Ukraine's president confirmed that both countries had offered their support in the fight against Russia.

www.newsweek.com

As is tradition.

Given the Ukraine situation, I fear that Russia will promptly seize Gotland if Sweden seems to be about to join NATO. But that’s for another thread.

 

[fooferdoggie]

is there anything anyone can do? sanctions wont hurt putin and now he has threatened the world with nuclear weapons? even if everyone cuts them off china wont.

 

[shadow puppet]

This is horrifying.
https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1497206708439072768/

Through some miracle, the passenger survived.
https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1497153866328018944/

 

[lizkat]

The FT currently drops its paywall on pieces related to "key events" in Ukraine..

War in Ukraine

In-depth news and analysis on the Russia-Ukraine war. The latest developments, map updates and opinion.

www.ft.com

 

[Agent47]

I just talked to a (now former) friend in Russia. She insists that there is no invasion and that the russian army is helping people by fighting terrorists.
In her view, the Ukrainians are the perpetrators. She does not understand at all how anyone can possibly support Ukraine

 

[Deleted member 215]

Disappointing. I commend those Russians actually on the streets protesting and risking arrest by doing so. Clearly not everyone has drunk the Putin Kool-Aid.

 

[yaxomoxay]

Well as the saying goes, "If you're going to get wet you may as well go swimming".

Well, as a matter of fact Putin swims every single day.

 

[Agent47]

Disappointing. I commend those Russians actually on the streets protesting and risking arrest by doing so. Clearly not everyone has drunk the Putin Kool-Aid.

Indeed. I hoped my former friend would at least be somewhat neutral, but as it turned out she fully fell for Putin‘s propaganda; she does not see the contradictions in her line of thought. So sad

 

[lizkat]

I just talked (to a now former) friend in Russia. She insists that there is no invasion and that the russian army is helping people by fighting terrorists.
In her view, the Ukrainians are the perpetrators. She does not understand at all how anyone can possibly support Ukraine

Spoken like the equivalent of someone in the USA who bases reactions on whatever FauxSnooze says.

 

[quagmire]

I just talked to a (now former) friend in Russia. She insists that there is no invasion and that the russian army is helping people by fighting terrorists.
In her view, the Ukrainians are the perpetrators. She does not understand at all how anyone can possibly support Ukraine

I wouldn't necessarily break off the friendship depending on how supportive she is despite evidence to the contrary.

Her believing Russian government/media isn't hard to believe cause Americans do the same with our government/media.

It's amazing to read people go, " Well when we invaded Panama, etc it was to fight communism and bring democracy to the people! Or fight against atrocities!" believing the BS crap to come out of our government and media to justify going to war.

 

[leman]

View attachment 11942

200 helicopters! Why not 1000? Anyway, this seems to be fake news. Russia did attempt to take the airport with paratroopers multiple times yesterday, unsuccessfully. Folks from Ukraine who claim to live nearby said that last hours were quiet and while there were some occasional fights, no massive incursion like described, certainly not hundreds of helicopters.

The interesting thing is that Ukrainians reported that around 200 Russian elite paratroopers lost their life’s in the attack, so it’s very interesting to see Russia claim the same number of kills in the other side.

I just talked to a (now former) friend in Russia. She insists that there is no invasion and that the russian army is helping people by fighting terrorists.
In her view, the Ukrainians are the perpetrators. She does not understand at all how anyone can possibly support Ukraine

Yup, it’s unreliable how many folks learns everything from TV.

 

[yaxomoxay]

is there anything anyone can do?

Not much for Ukraine imo. Some people think that Russia won’t be able to hold Ukraine due to internal struggle. It’s optimistic in my view but still possible.

The real question is: even if Putin was to retreat for any reason, and if Ukraine was able to get some sort of sovereignty back, what would happen? Ukraine can’t trust its allies anymore; at the moment of need, we abandoned them to their fate. (Zelensky’s jab at Draghi this morning wasn’t random. A clear demonstration of the disconnect between partners). They will need protection. At the same time, a single western troop in Ukraine would be seen as a provocation by Russia (aka excuse to destroy even more Ukraine). It is obvious that Ukraine would need to rebuild its forces very fast, and so all the countries in the region. That would include even Sweden and Finland. And you’ll see that more countries will want to join NATO, not because they share the ideals behind it, but to get the Article V automatic protection. This is in my view a TNT+nitroglycerin scenario. It’s a nightmare scenario in which no one can trust no one not dissimilar (in concept) to the situation before June 1914.

In other words, with this invasion and independently on how it goes, Russia has radically changed the chessboard and also it has clarified that US and Europe are not reliable partners.

 

[SuperMatt]

Not much for Ukraine imo. Some people think that Russia won’t be able to hold Ukraine due to internal struggle. It’s optimistic in my view but still possible.

The real question is: even if Putin was to retreat for any reason, and if Ukraine was able to get some sort of sovereignty back, what would happen? Ukraine can’t trust its allies anymore; at the moment of need, we abandoned them to their fate. (Zelensky’s jab at Draghi this morning wasn’t random. A clear demonstration of the disconnect between partners). They will need protection. At the same time, a single western troop in Ukraine would be seen as a provocation by Russia (aka excuse to destroy even more Ukraine). It is obvious that Ukraine would need to rebuild its forces very fast, and so all the countries in the region. That would include even Sweden and Finland. And you’ll see that more countries will want to join NATO, not because they share the ideals behind it, but to get the Article V automatic protection. This is in my view a TNT+nitroglycerin scenario. It’s a nightmare scenario in which no one can trust no one not dissimilar (in concept) to the situation before June 1914.

In other words, with this invasion and independently on how it goes, Russia has radically changed the chessboard and also it has clarified that US and Europe are not reliable partners.

So, unless Europe and the US are willing to start a world war with NATO vs Russia, they aren’t reliable partners? Right after you pointed out that any NATO troops in Ukraine could lead to a world war?

The idea that Ukraine cannot “trust” its allies simply because they didn’t send 100,000 or more troops into Ukraine to fight Russia? Nope.

 

[Arkitect]

Well, as a matter of fact Putin swims every single day.

And wrestles bears. Such a macho man.

 

[Agent47]

I wouldn't necessarily break off the friendship depending on how supportive she is despite evidence to the contrary.

Her believing Russian government/media isn't hard to believe cause Americans do the same with our government/media.

It's amazing to read people go, " Well when we invaded Panama, etc it was to fight communism and bring democracy to the people! Or fight against atrocities!" believing the BS crap to come out of our government and media to justify going to war.

True - and I didn‘t. She kinda did by hanging up the phone. After a somewat heated argument where she said the west is evil, mostly coz apparently she cannot buy things online any more. In her view, the sanctions are not justified, we all should thank Putin for getting rid of terrorism

 

[Arkitect]

Spoken like the equivalent of someone in the USA who bases reactions on whatever FauxSnooze says.

Indeed.
Here in the UK we call them Daily Mail readers...

 

[lizkat]

is there anything anyone can do? sanctions wont hurt putin and now he has threatened the world with nuclear weapons? even if everyone cuts them off china wont.

It's too late to prevent the death and infrastructure damage already done, but not too late to unite in telling Putin he crossed a line that cannot stand. No one knows how resumption of diplomacy will turn out but I hardly think Europe is ready to see Ukraine reabsorbed into Russia. Ukraine is not Belarus, and even Belarus had a (suppressed) breakaway from its puppet regime last time around, which of course is part of why Putin's fury has spilled over into taking a crack at Ukraine and pointedly occupying Belarus to do so.

In fact, tough sanctions on people Putin has depended on will hurt him. Existing sanctions had already deeply inconvenienced some of the people he has relied on. They were or are loyal only through his having allowed them to flourish for his cut of their greedy take.

How deep does purchased loyalty run? Putin's not sure. Part of the point of sanctions is to bring internal political pressure to bear on a leader who has invited imposition of severe sanctions by the international community.

So Putin reminds us that there are more cards in the deck and that he has some of them, even if there is no intent to use nukes and so to invite the glassing over of the planet. The problem of course that is a war in progress is not the same as a war game, and there's no flashing red light over the map of Ukraine right now saying hey if you do this it's game over for everyone.

There might be flashing red lights on threatened use of nuclear weapons in actuality, but a person in desperate straits can end up with tunnel vision, where every step taken seems to highlight the one and only logical option left. We don't know if Putin feels desperate yet or is still in megalomania land. He might end up somehow settling for having troops remaining parked in poor Belarus for quite awhile, having issued what he could come to regard as a severe enough lashing to Ukraine to hobble any overt Western lean on its part for the near term. The fate of the eastern provinces though seems unclear to me.

As for China: China still needs the purchasing power of its middle class already accustomed to buying western goods. So while China and Russia are currently best buds in the petro-based world of pipelines and mineral extraction, China of course has an eye out for where are the self-serving limits of supporting this guy Putin on his fool's errand of blatantly overriding a European nation's sovereignty. I would assume the Chinese are working behind scenes, possibly in consultation with one or another western nation, to suggest a quick reversion to diplomacy, even if they're willing to blink and wink at any Russian shenanigans or delay in the run-up to settling on a ceasefire.

But China's not averse to a roadmap on how far aggression against another nation by a large power can go these days. After all, at some point they do mean to bring Taiwan to heel, as shocking as that might still seem to some in the West. So it's useful to Xi to hang back a little and to see how things roll now in western reaction to Russian aggression in Ukraine.