Russia-Ukraine

[yaxomoxay]

Italian news is reporting that Ukraine killed one of its own main negotiators as he was a Russian spy.

 

[Arkitect]

Italian news is reporting that Ukraine killed one its own main negotiators as he’s was a Russian spy.

View attachment 12204

Here's a link from Ukrayinska Pravda:

Security Service of Ukraine shoots Ukrainian negotiator suspected of treason in Gomel
Link


Edit: Just curious, is 007 shorthand in Italian for spy?

 

[yaxomoxay]

Edit: Is 007 shorthand in Italian for spy?

Kind of. I guess a romanticized movie-like way to say it. In this case it’s plural.

 

[Arkitect]

Kind of. I guess a romanticized movie-like way to say it. In this case it’s is plural.

Grazie!

 

[User.45]

Over 66,200 Ukrainian men have returned from abroad to fight, says defence minister

Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said on Saturday that 66,224 Ukrainian men had returned from abroad to join the fight against Russia's invasion.

www.reuters.com

 

[Alli]

It would make zero sense to set off a nuclear bomb so close to his own country. And nobody wants to annex a nuclear wasteland, so it would be pointless to use a nuclear weapon on land you want to take over.

That is rational thinking. I don’t believe Putin is rational.

 

[Thomas Veil]

What choices do we have? We sure don't want to engage in actual war with Russia. But it does seem the other option, economic sanctions, won't stop him.

Despite the direness of the situation right now, I'm not sure economic sanctions won't stop him. But...

The problem is we can't predict much because there are several moving parts, all of which are pretty opaque.

• Sanctions, even ones as harsh as the ones we have imposed, will take time. It's entirely possible we could see the country collapse the way the Soviet Union did. Putin may have money squirreled away, but how long until he can't pay the military? Until Russian stores close? Until banks collapse?
• We have no idea how long it will take (if it happens at all) for the majority of citizens to revolt. If it happens, it probably won't be the citizens themselves who take back power, but the military seeing that Putin is the only one who still believes in the "mission".
• Until such time (if it comes), Putin has gotten himself in way, way too deep to back off how. He acts as if he equates retreat with castration. He is the proverbial guy who, having dug himself into a hole, keeps digging...and he's dug himself a veritable Project Mohole here.

It would make zero sense to set off a nuclear bomb so close to his own country. And nobody wants to annex a nuclear wasteland, so it would be pointless to use a nuclear weapon on land you want to take over.

This comment sounded reasonable on Wednesday. Not so much today, since they bombed a nuclear power plant. Luckily they didn't hit the reactors themselves, but it does indicate a horrifying recklessness previously not seen. Should there be a radioactive cloud, Putin doesn't seem concerned at all that wind tends to blow from west to east.

 

[Huntn]

The West is in the position of resisting and punishing this aggression from a nuclear power or folding. I don’t see the latter. Vlad maybe bluffing, but until neutralized he may stand as almost a singular threat to the future of the species.

For a parallel, this is the equivalent of giving an unstable person a gun and on a tremendously larger scale illustrative of the danger of nuclear weapons wielded by humans. I don’t think average citizens think about this daily, until something like this happens, but the moves to de-escalate nuclear weapons in the past, needs to continue. And to illustrate the vital need of a competent leadership, Trump let the INF slide.

Here are all the treaties and agreements Trump has abandoned | CNN Politics

President Donald Trump's decision to begin the process of withdrawing the United States from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty will end an arms control agreement with Russia that has been a centerpiece of European security since the Cold War.

www.cnn.com

Ukraine invasion: Western sanctions 'equivalent to declaring war' Putin claims as he defends military action

Vladimir Putin has described Western sanctions on Russia as being equivalent to declaring a war, insisting that his invasion of Ukraine was driven by a need to protect Russian speakers in the country.

www.manxradio.com

Vladimir Putin has described Western sanctions on Russia as being "equivalent to declaring a war", insisting that his invasion of Ukraine was driven by a need to protect Russian speakers in the country.

 

[Edd]

Are we sure the damage to the nuclear power plant was intentional? Could it have been incompetence?

 

[lizkat]

Are we sure the damage to the nuclear power plant was intentional? Could it have been incompetence?

Who knows? Fog of war can obscure a lot of things, including the source of any order to take aim and fire, never mind issues of incompetence, bad judgment, bad hardware, carelessness, a bad hair day or just another demo of the gods of war making people crazy.

But the idea that shelling or bombing took place anywhere near Europe's largest operating nuclear power plant is just appalling, if only on the too often reliable grounds of Murphy's Law. The incident must surely remind all that reality is not a video game with endless options of "Game Over! Play Again?" -- and much less a videotape that can just be rewound and written over.

 

[yaxomoxay]

There is a question no one is asking - maybe it’s premature or maybe no one wants to talk about.

Suppose that Senator Graham gets his wish true and Mr Putin is deposed or even killed. Someone else will need to take over, while troops are in Ukraine and while sanctions are on. After all the Russian losses only a suicidal politician with a strong desire to die in office could just give up and leave Ukraine as if nothing happened, especially considering that the easement of sanctions would take months to be noticed by the Russian populations. Also, the Russian generals would never allow for such a visible loss and for a weakening of Russian military weapons.

In other words, be careful what we wish for, if doesn’t include a Russian loss on the ground in Ukraine.

 

[SuperMatt]

Sanctions on Russian oligarchs seem to be having an effect.

The Russian Elite Can’t Stand the Sanctions — The Atlantic

The latest measures are far more effective than Western powers’ past efforts to target Russia’s elite.

apple.news

 

[Pumbaa]

There is a question no one is asking - maybe it’s premature or maybe no one wants to talk about.

Suppose that Senator Graham gets his wish true and Mr Putin is deposed or even killed. Someone else will need to take over, while troops are in Ukraine and while sanctions are on. After all the Russian losses only a suicidal politician with a strong desire to die in office could just give up and leave Ukraine as if nothing happened, especially considering that the easement of sanctions would take months to be noticed by the Russian populations. Also, the Russian generals would never allow for such a visible loss and for a weakening of Russian military weapons.

In other words, be careful what we wish for, if doesn’t include a Russian loss on the ground in Ukraine.

The esteemed senator is probably only concerned with certain kompromat dying along with Putin.

 

[lizkat]

There is a question no one is asking - maybe it’s premature or maybe no one wants to talk about.

Suppose that Senator Graham gets his wish true and Mr Putin is deposed or even killed. Someone else will need to take over, while troops are in Ukraine and while sanctions are on. After all the Russian losses only a suicidal politician with a strong desire to die in office could just give up and leave Ukraine as if nothing happened, especially considering that the easement of sanctions would take months to be noticed by the Russian populations. Also, the Russian generals would never allow for such a visible loss and for a weakening of Russian military weapons.

In other words, be careful what we wish for, if doesn’t include a Russian loss on the ground in Ukraine.

If Senator Graham wants to make foreign policy then 1) let him run for President and 2) meanwhile how about brushing up on the US Constitution (with which he used to be quite familiar as a lawyer serving in the JAG Corps of USAF), and so quit talking up the idea of assassinating a head of state.

It was bad enough that Graham defended Trump's having ordered the 1/3/2020 drone strike on Qasem Soleimani, the right hand man to the Iranian head of state. That killing was judged as "unlawful" by UN Human Rights Council, since the death was not on a battlefield between the US and Iran but on a commercial airport ramp in a third country ,Iraq) and Soleimani had specifically been invited to Baghdad by the Iraqi head of state. The US representative to the UN objected to the assessment. Other lawyers suggested the execution violated both the Hague and Geneva conventions since "self defense" did not appear to be an imminent issue when the drone strike was ordered

Anyway as of now, Senator Graham's taking heat from both sides of the aisle for his remark on Putin...

As for matters of succession to Putin (no matter for what reason), who knows. Autocrats figure on sticking around.

But, one of the reasons Putin was trading weapons for gold with Venezuela while Maduro still had some in its central bank was to be able to pay both the Russian arms manufacturers and the Russian military forces he was trying to rebuild. This because aside from however Putin has vastly tweaked rule of law in his favor, it's the military from which any credible effort to dislodge him would likely arise.

Still, if any people think that Putin has the undivided loyalty of all generals in Russia's military, they have probably been reading too much Russian propaganda. But the game of the century-- among those with any serious potential for centralized political power in Russia-- is probably down to "how do I find out who else wants to get with a different program"? The risks in the outcome of a sting or just a wrong guess are probably lethal.

 

[lizkat]

Sanctions on Russian oligarchs seem to be having an effect.

The Russian Elite Can’t Stand the Sanctions — The Atlantic

The latest measures are far more effective than Western powers’ past efforts to target Russia’s elite.

apple.news

Gotta love this bit from that article.

Oligarchs who are cut off from accessing their offshore wealth won’t starve, but they will be unable to maintain their jet-setting luxury lifestyle. As Josep Borrell, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs, quipped in a now-deleted tweet, this means:

No more:

Shopping in #Milano

Partying in #SaintTropez

Diamonds in #Antwerp

That tweet attracted attention precisely because it touches on a phenomenon of great significance that is often overlooked: Looting your country’s wealth is pointless if you can’t show off the spoils.

 

[User.45]

Sanctions on Russian oligarchs seem to be having an effect.

The Russian Elite Can’t Stand the Sanctions — The Atlantic

The latest measures are far more effective than Western powers’ past efforts to target Russia’s elite.

apple.news

This is a pretty good paragraph:

I have been astonished again and again at how many oligarchs cannot seem to live without the splashy public display of their wealth, even when it puts them at risk. In recent days, Internet sleuths and government agents alike have been closely tracking the movements of Russian oligarchs’ private jets and multimillion-dollar yachts. Instagram posts from plush locations are a major strategic asset for anyone seeking to impose accountability on people who otherwise seem to be untouchable. For example, a niche profession has developed in tracking down transnational oligarchs via their social-media posts so they can be served with legal papers to freeze their assets in debt-collection proceedings. These high-end collection agents, the Boba Fetts of the ultra-high-net-worth crowd, can do their job precisely because the oligarchs and their globe-trotting family members can’t help themselves.

That last sentence is pop culture gold.

 

[User.45]

Gotta love this bit from that article.

It's a really good article and what I especially love, not overly verbose, but manages to drop really good lines.

 

[Huntn]

There is a question no one is asking - maybe it’s premature or maybe no one wants to talk about.

Suppose that Senator Graham gets his wish true and Mr Putin is deposed or even killed. Someone else will need to take over, while troops are in Ukraine and while sanctions are on. After all the Russian losses only a suicidal politician with a strong desire to die in office could just give up and leave Ukraine as if nothing happened, especially considering that the easement of sanctions would take months to be noticed by the Russian populations. Also, the Russian generals would never allow for such a visible loss and for a weakening of Russian military weapons.

In other words, be careful what we wish for, if doesn’t include a Russian loss on the ground in Ukraine.

While I would not mind Putin being removed from power, obviously the hope that he would be replaced by someone more reasonable with a clearer head as to what is good for the Motherland.

By what I know of Putin, the man is a power hungry sociopath. He appears to be smart but power hungary to a dangerous point. As far as I know Russia today faces no significant external threats, but there maybe internal threats to his power, and as someone who appears to be empire building, calculating to resurrect the USSR, he is clearly dangerous and making decisions bad for his country. But if he can hold onto power and acquire Ukraine, he’ll consider it a win and he is willing to take the chance.

As far as pushing the button when it all goes wrong for him, this something to be concerned about, but I have no clue what the counter would be. It seems clear that allowing him to have his way with Europe, that changing our actions when he says “sanctions are an act of war”, is a non-starter. We’ll take our chances and hope that he is not insane or powerfully suicidal.

 

[Huntn]

If Senator Graham wants to make foreign policy then 1) let him run for President and 2) meanwhile how about brushing up on the US Constitution (with which he used to be quite familiar as a lawyer serving in the JAG Corps of USAF), and so quit talking up the idea of assassinating a head of state.

It was bad enough that Graham defended Trump's having ordered the 1/3/2020 drone strike on Qasem Soleimani, the right hand man to the Iranian head of state. That killing was judged as "unlawful" by UN Human Rights Council, since the death was not on a battlefield between the US and Iran but on a commercial airport ramp in a third country ,Iraq) and Soleimani had specifically been invited to Baghdad by the Iraqi head of state. The US representative to the UN objected to the assessment. Other lawyers suggested the execution violated both the Hague and Geneva conventions since "self defense" did not appear to be an imminent issue when the drone strike was ordered

Anyway as of now, Senator Graham's taking heat from both sides of the aisle for his remark on Putin...

As for matters of succession to Putin (no matter for what reason), who knows. Autocrats figure on sticking around.

But, one of the reasons Putin was trading weapons for gold with Venezuela while Maduro still had some in its central bank was to be able to pay both the Russian arms manufacturers and the Russian military forces he was trying to rebuild. This because aside from however Putin has vastly tweaked rule of law in his favor, it's the military from which any credible effort to dislodge him would likely arise.

Still, if any people think that Putin has the undivided loyalty of all generals in Russia's military, they have probably been reading too much Russian propaganda. But the game of the century-- among those with any serious potential for centralized political power in Russia-- is probably down to "how do I find out who else wants to get with a different program"? The risks in the outcome of a sting or just a wrong guess are probably lethal.

The GOP seems to love displaying their ignorance regarding our policy, our laws, understanding of international law. Trump was an ignoramus as POTUS. Some prominent politicians on the right seems to think that following in his footsteps and macho talk is what will keep them being elected.

 

[Yoused]

Despite being asked not to, Senators Marco Rubio and Steve Daines could not help themselves, tweeting screenshots of Volodymir Zelenskyy while they were on a zoom call with him.