Russia-Ukraine

[Zoidberg]

I've been following Roscosmos fairly closely for some time, so I can confidently say that anything coming from Rogozin is pure trolling for the amusement of Putin and it's better to just ignore it... Mainstream media still report on his tweets because of the outrageous things he says, but the general attitude of the experts in the Space industry is just to shrug, ignore him and wait until an adult who actually knows what they are talking about provides some information.

And as expected, Roscosmos has confirmed that Rogozin was just running his mouth as usual and that the US astronaut will return to Earth as initially scheduled.

Russia says it will not strand American astronaut in space despite media reports

NASA and Roscosmos still continue to work together on the International Space Station.

www.theverge.com

 

[Huntn]

Interesting:

China blames NATO for pushing Russia-Ukraine tension to 'breaking point'

Moves by U.S.-led NATO have pushed tension between Russia and Ukraine to a "breaking point", Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

China as a future trading partner…From CNN:
Pressure is mounting on President Biden and NATO members to provide further assistance to Ukrainians. Russian troops continue to strike residential buildings and populated areas, and recently left smoldering homes in the besieged city of Mariupol.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has asked Biden to ratchet up efforts to cut off Russia from international trade and to continue targeting the Russian elite. The US and its allies have issued a wide range of actions in recent weeks intended to punish Moscow, including harsh new sanctions aimed at imposing severe costs on the Russian economy.

However, while Biden is working to isolate and punish Russia, American officials are expressing concern about the budding partnership between Moscow and Beijing. The US now has information suggesting China has expressed some openness to providing Russia with assistance as part of its war on Ukraine, a Western official and a US diplomat told CNN. President Zelensky is also planning to virtually address Congress tomorrow

 

[Eric]

From CNN:
Pressure is mounting on President Biden and NATO members to provide further assistance to Ukrainians. Russian troops continue to strike residential buildings and populated areas, and recently left smoldering homes in the besieged city of Mariupol. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has asked Biden to ratchet up efforts to cut off Russia from international trade and to continue targeting the Russian elite. The US and its allies have issued a wide range of actions in recent weeks intended to punish Moscow, including harsh new sanctions aimed at imposing severe costs on the Russian economy. However, while Biden is working to isolate and punish Russia, American officials are expressing concern about the budding partnership between Moscow and Beijing. The US now has information suggesting China has expressed some openness to providing Russia with assistance as part of its war on Ukraine, a Western official and a US diplomat told CNN. President Zelensky is also planning to virtually address Congress tomorrow

Russia is essentially indiscriminately bombing the entire country into rubble, so much so that it's hard to understand the endgame for Putin other than a land grab with thousands of dead citizens on it. On top of that he's going to start bombing trade routes and is just about to cross the line there. It feels like it's just a matter of time before NATO takes a stand, let's just hope China plays nice.

 

[Huntn]

Let's hope we don't have World War III erupting over a NATO defense of the Sulwaki gap... the thing is, that corridor between Kalingrad and Belarus affords the only ground routes from Poland to the little Baltic states, which are also NATO members.

View attachment 12360

With the way things are going Ukraine, this could be years away, but possible if they succeed in Ukraine. Vlad: Let me take over Ukraine at any cost to the Ukrainians, and then I’ll negotiate with the West and play nice until I can fool them again.

Scenario: Russia invades Lithuania in defense of Kalingrad for its security against NATO Nazis, and dares the West to do anything about it, with Latvia and Estonia in its sights.

However, the sanctions ironically could destabilize Russia to such a point that it becomes economically caged, but militarily dangerous. I can imagine NATO hesitating to militarily respond to the above for the same rational that they are letting Russia have it’s way with Ukraine, Russia’s nukes. However I would expect this to be a red line and so who knows.

 

[Arkitect]

With the way things are going Ukraine, this could be years away, but possible if they succeed in Ukraine. Vlad: Let me take over Ukraine at any cost to the Ukrainians, and then I’ll negotiate with the West and play nice until I can fool them again.

Scenario: Russia invades Lithuania in defense of Kalingrad for its security against NATO Nazis, and dares the West to do anything about it, with Latvia and Estonia in its sights.

However, the sanctions ironically could destabilize Russia to such a point that it becomes economically caged, but militarily dangerous. I can imagine NATO hesitating to militarily respond to the above for the same rational that they are letting Russia have it’s way with Ukraine, Russia’s nukes. However I would expect this to be a red line and so who knows.

Lithuania would be one hell of a line for Russia to cross.

Very different to Ukraine.

Russia invades Lithuania? Full scale war.

Lithuania is a member of the EU;
Lithuania is a member of NATO.

The invasion of Ukraine has pushed most western governments to breaking point towards Russia.

Russia invading any of the Baltic states would have us back at September 1939.

I would hope Putin (or successor) will have the mental stability to see that.

 

[Macky-Mac]

Lithuania would be one hell of a line for Russia to cross.

Very different to Ukraine.

Russia invades Lithuania? Full scale war.

Lithuania is a member of the EU;
Lithuania is a member of NATO.

The invasion of Ukraine has pushed most western governments to breaking point towards Russia.

Russia invading any of the Baltic states would have us back at September 1939.

I would hope Putin (or successor) will have the mental stability to see that.

let's hope that the EU and NATO will be sufficiently prepared so that Putin (or some future replacement) would decide trying to take Lithuania wouldn't be a successful operation

 

[Eric]

let's hope that the EU and NATO will be sufficiently prepared so that Putin (or some future replacement) would decide trying to take Lithuania wouldn't be a successful operation

Putin will only respond to force, if any country is close to being threatened they're best served to amass troops along their borders. NATO should be proactive here, waiting on Putin will only cost more lives and give him the advantage, his goals are clear. At this point it would be strategic and defensive and no so much provocative, nobody expects these countries to sit idly by defenseless and wait for Russia to attack.

 

[MarkusL]

Despite all his other ambitions, the thing I believe Putin wants more than anything else is to go down in history as the man who broke NATO apart. I am convinced he has fantasies about taking just a little bit of one of the Baltic countries and ask NATO if it's worth a nuclear war or if they will let him have it. NATO backing down would erode trust within the alliance, but is the scenario realistic? Actually I think it's not so interesting whether it is realistic or not. The more interesting question is whether Putin thinks it is realistic. And the poor performance of the invasion in Ukraine seems to indicate that his intelligence advisors are telling him what he wants to hear, not necessarily what they really think.

 

[Huntn]

let's hope that the EU and NATO will be sufficiently prepared so that Putin (or some future replacement) would decide trying to take Lithuania wouldn't be a successful operation

My guess is that a slew of war scenarios are being formulated. Now this goes on all the time, so the best than can be said about Ukraine is that from a declaration of war standpoint was that Ukraine was expendable.

My question is if they had wanted to after the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, could Ukraine have qualified for NATO or EU membership since then?

 

[SuperMatt]

Despite all his other ambitions, the thing I believe Putin wants more than anything else is to go down in history as the man who broke NATO apart. I am convinced he has fantasies about taking just a little bit of one of the Baltic countries and ask NATO if it's worth a nuclear war or if they will let him have it. NATO backing down would erode trust within the alliance, but is the scenario realistic? Actually I think it's not so interesting whether it is realistic or not. The more interesting question is whether Putin thinks it is realistic. And the poor performance of the invasion in Ukraine seems to indicate that his intelligence advisors are telling him what he wants to hear, not necessarily what they really think.

His puppet Donald Trump attempted to break apart NATO and perhaps made some progress. However, Biden started to try and repair those relationships as soon as he got in.

This war by Putin did the opposite of what he wanted. He has made NATO stronger.

 

[Huntn]

His puppet Donald Trump attempted to break apart NATO and perhaps made some progress. However, Biden started to try and repair those relationships as soon as he got in.

This war by Putin did the opposite of what he wanted. He has made NATO stronger.

As a side comment to this post, if anything Trump has done to be happy about is the self inflicted damage from his praise of Vlad the genius, post invasion.

 

[Arkitect]

My guess is that a slew of war scenarios are being formulated. Now this goes on all the time, so the best than can be said about Ukraine is that from a declaration of war standpoint was that Ukraine was expendable.

I agree with you.
Terrible as it is, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is similar to the German invasion of the rump Czechoslovakia, March 1939.
European governments decried it, shouted and waved fists and bits of paper, but all knew they were not going to go to war.
Poland had an "assurance" from the United Kingdom and so… fast forward to September 1939.

My question is if they had wanted to after the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, could Ukraine have qualified for NATO or EU membership since then?

Probably not.

The path to membership to EU and NATO is both Byzantine and labyrinthine…

To start, hinderances to Ukraine joining the EU:
Ukraine does not yet have the requisite level of economic development to join;
Large scale corruption. (Where Denmark is a Gold Standard 88/100, Ukraine is 33/100, Russia 30/100)

Yes, this is a country in devastating agony, but that does not mean all previous concerns evaporate — the lesser of evils? Zelensky's approval rating prior to the invasion was 25%.

If Ukraine had been a model candidate the EU would be doing all it can to allow Ukraine to join as fast as possible. The feet dragging should tell us something.

 

[Eric]

I agree with you.
Terrible as it is, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is similar to the German invasion of the rump Czechoslovakia, March 1939.
European governments decried it, shouted and waved fists and bits of paper, but all knew they were not going to go to war.
Poland had an "assurance" from the United Kingdom and so… fast forward to September 1939.

It's like we learn absolutely nothing from our pasts.

 

[Zoidberg]

So, if you want some more gloom and doom, here's the latest (6th) letter from the Russian whistleblower:

Caveat: as always, take it for what it is. That means it's *probably* authentic, but nothing is certain. The contents of the first letter had been confirmed by Bellingcat and others as being almost certainly legit from someone in the FSB. However, that doesn't mean the guy didn't get caught in the meantime, or it could be some elaborate psy-ops by the FSB, or who knows what else.

“It appears World War III has begun; our guys are opening champagne - the war between Iran and the United States disrupts the nuclear deal and blocks the ability to replace Russian oil with Iranian oil. The inevitable shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz will cause oil to skyrocket in price. I have no idea why Iran chose to shoot itself in the foot. I could even believe in the existence of some kind of generally incomprehensible agreements (between Russia & Iran), but I don’t have a single fact that supports this.

Today I just want to convey information about the impending "exit" for Russia through our eyes (FSB as an organization) and the courtiers at the Kremlin. (Reference to a royal court under a King)

This is not a “copy” of the actual brief but an extremely accurate retelling, so you can do with this as you wish, including full publication without any redactions.

Currently there is only an outline, and a final report will be much more voluminous, detailed, and more concrete as the work has only just begun. Afterward I will try to provide my own input as I am currently pre-occupied with the situation of the Iranian-American conflict. The “Gordian Knot” will definitely be seriously revised/adapted (because of Iran launching a missile at the US base in Iraq).

Operation “Gordian Knot”

1st Stage: Most likely, Konashenkov (Major General, chief spokesman for the Russian Ministry of Defence) will officially declare at a briefing that Europe and the “collective West” have declared war on Russia by intervening in the Ukrainian conflict with their weapons and mercenaries, while simultaneously attacking Russia in the economic plane (sanctions). There will be an extended lecture that war is not contained to military operations on the battlefield, but it includes an array of aggressive actions aimed at causing direct damage to the opponent. That the West’s action de-facto unleashed a world war. That this war has not yet moved into the “hot stage” with missiles and tanks only because Putin, as the supreme commander in chief, did not give such an order. Nevertheless, Konashenkov will declare that the third world war has begun.

2nd Stage: Assessment of the reaction (by the West) – 1-2 days.

3rd Stage: Putin will make a speech. In this long lecture he will declare that the modern world is not as it was before, that war now includes cyber attacks, preparation of biological attacks, direct attacks, training of terrorist & saboteurs, and imposing of sanctions devastating to the economy. He [allegedly] does not want war, but the West has already started it (against Russia). As a result, (Russian) response need not be symmetrical and can respond to any act of aggression with any means available in a military confrontation. “I warned with Ukraine – but nobody listened” (Putin’s message). Russia has shown that its words (threats) are not empty. Putin will declare that he is ready to come to terms (forgive) with what the West has already done, but only if sanctions are lifted within 24 hours, all assistance to Ukraine is stopped, and that NATO will guarantee not to expand. (Still Putin’s upcoming speech) Otherwise, Russia will have no choice but to accept the war and respond with all available means.

4th Stage: A fierce negotiation process (between Russia and the West) – in the initial hours Putin will be conspicuously unavailable for communication (with the West). Other countries’ presidents will be obliged to discuss issues with Putin’s aides – “or not at all.”

Putin's demonstrative private phone calls will begin with the leaders of countries that Russia is betting on: Serbia, Hungary, China, the Arab world, African countries and Asian countries.

Assessing the situation of the West’s readiness to respond to the challenge, agents of political influence will be activated. They will call to “immediately fulfill Russia’s just demands, and not drag the world into a new war” - here the task is to quickly propagate the message that “the war was unleashed by the West, but Russia cannot not to answer.”

Stage 5: Based on the assessment of the situation over the following 24 hours, the following options are possible:

• 1) The West blinks and is prepared to make local concessions. In this instance the following position will be voiced: “we have been heard, there are positive signals and we consider this a factor that allows us to delay making a final decision." (Whether to start military operations against the West) Putin will set aside several days for the negotiation process, after which he will “make a decision.” In this scenario the West is given time to go through stages from denial to acceptance – practically all that will remain is to extract maximal concessions (from the West), which will turn out to be the most significant. The maximal objective is to sign a new international treaty of a global nature (total appeasement of Russia)
  
  
• 2) The West does not comply, but openly does not want war. In this instance “military targets” will be demonstrably identified: Poland and the Baltic countries. Moreover, identification of “limited targets” in these countries is possible, with a public appeal to civilians not to be near these objects. Immediately after this, a super-intensive format of negotiations will start, with a key goal of forcing the West to reject all support for Ukraine and a possible “compelling of Ukraine to peace” by the West. Strategic aviation and nuclear triad will be activated, and a No Fly Zone may be declared over these countries (by Russia). Chances of success (for desired concessions from the West) are considered to be highly realistic (if it gets to this point). Otherwise, localized missile strikes (against Poland and Baltics) will be almost inevitable.
  
  
• 3) The West does not comply and demonstrates readiness for war in response. This scenario is considered to be extremely unlikely. In this instance cyber attacks will be launched on key infrastructure facilities of Western countries. Russia will not take direct responsibility, while actively "moving" its forces of the (nuclear) triad. With this development of events, the risks of the West using military methods to respond are assessed as negligible, which gives Russia room to maneuver to conduct an indirect war to create unacceptable conditions for the West with the risk of total economic collapse. After this, negotiations are considered inevitable and will result in the scenario #2 above.
  
  
• 4) In the case of an absence of clear coordinated signals (from the West), which is assessed as unlikely but acceptable, the (Russian) behaviour will again be similar to scenario #2 above.
  
  
• 5) A fundamental collapse of the West within the time allotted (by Putin) after the ultimatum was issued. Rejection of “collective security”: Withdrawal of several countries from NATO (and possibly European Union), each with separate appeals to Russia that they are not conducting aggressive actions against Russia and they are not part of the possible war. Then everything will default back to scenario #1 above, but Russia’s strength in position (for negotiations) will be comparable to that of the USSR. In the future, this will allow Russia to take political control of a number of countries that were part of the USSR. NATO as an integral structure will cease to exist.
  
  
• 6) A fundamental collapse of the West, but with a clear separation of a number of countries [Poland and the Baltics] from the moderate position of other countries. (Here, #WindofChange means a scenario in which NATO tries to appease Russia but Poland and the Baltics refuse to stand down to Russia) In this case the “pro-Russian wing” of the Western countries will accuse these countries (Poland/Baltics) of fomenting conflict along with a demand “not to drag our governments into someone else’s conflict.” Russia's objective in this scenario is to apply maximum pressure on Western countries with a moderate position, demanding that they “keep the aggressors (Poland/Baltics) from reckless actions." In this situation, within a period of 3 to 7 days, Western countries with a moderate position will be ready to accept local strikes against countries with radically irreconcilable countries (Poland/Baltics), after which missile strikes [on military targets] will be launched on them (Poland/Baltics). Direct infantry invasion is considered acceptable but unlikely.

For all the above (six) scenarios, these assumptions are assessed as extremely probable:

- Arab countries, Iran, China, some African countries, and [presumably] India and Brazil will take neutrality with a general condemnation of "mutual aggression"

- Some European countries are guaranteed not to support military confrontation: Italy, Hungary, Serbia, possibly France

- Powerful movements will be activated inside Western countries aimed to both support Russia and recognize it as a “defending side.” A number of anti-war movements not necessarily in support of Russia but which will create an impossible environment for their governments to make a pro-war decision

- Global nuclear war will not happen

- The Ukraine question will be resolved with finality by the West.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Wild Kremlin TV Hosts Threaten the U.S. With Nuclear Strikes

Russian state media has shut down last week’s minor dissent and now demands an end to sanctions and even reparations for affected Russians. Or else.

www.thedailybeast.com

 

[Eric]

More reporters down I don't care what network they are from, the put their lives on the line to cover these things. Nothing but respect for every one of them.

Ukraine war: Fox News cameraman and Ukrainian journalist killed in attack near Kyiv

Pierre Zakrzewski had been travelling in a vehicle near Kyiv with correspondent Benjamin Hall, who was injured, and Ukrainian journalist Oleksandra Kuvshinova, who was also killed.

news.sky.com

Ukraine war: Fox News cameraman and Ukrainian journalist killed in attack near Kyiv​

Pierre Zakrzewski had been travelling in a vehicle near Kyiv with correspondent Benjamin Hall, who was injured, and Ukrainian journalist Oleksandra Kuvshinova, who was also killed.

 

[fooferdoggie]

More reporters down I don't care what network they are from, the put their lives on the line to cover these things. Nothing but respect for every one of them.

Ukraine war: Fox News cameraman and Ukrainian journalist killed in attack near Kyiv

Pierre Zakrzewski had been travelling in a vehicle near Kyiv with correspondent Benjamin Hall, who was injured, and Ukrainian journalist Oleksandra Kuvshinova, who was also killed.

news.sky.com

Ukraine war: Fox News cameraman and Ukrainian journalist killed in attack near Kyiv​

Pierre Zakrzewski had been travelling in a vehicle near Kyiv with correspondent Benjamin Hall, who was injured, and Ukrainian journalist Oleksandra Kuvshinova, who was also killed.

was the fox news guy shot by a Nazi?

 

[Thomas Veil]

Get ready to face palm.

Eric Trump: Putin Was Pants-Pissingly Terrified of My Dad, O.K.? — Vanity Fair

Another Trump boy is claiming Donald Trump was so big and strong the president of Russia knew not to cross him.

apple.news

Eric Trump: Putin Was Pants-Pissingly Terrified of My Dad, O.K.?

In an interview with Sean Hannity on Monday night, the former president’s son claimed Putin used his training as a spy to deduce that Trump—a five-time draft dodger who used bone spurs as an excuse to avoid service—was a man he did not want to mess with. “Putin was in with the KBG, he can read people and he could tell that Donald Trump was a very strong person,” Eric declared with a completely straight face, adding: “Listen, my father would call up and would have said, ‘Vladimir, don’t even think about it, don’t even try us. I’m telling you it’s not going to work out very well for you.’”

Naturally, Eric isn’t the only Trump boy spinning historical fan fiction about his father. In a video uploaded to Twitter last week, Donald Trump Jr. insisted that when the former president praises dictators like Putin, he’s not doing so because there’s something uniquely wrong with him but because he’s playing a high-level game of 3D chess. “He knew exactly how to play these guys, and he played it like a fiddle,” Junior claimed, a statement that would take a family therapist years to unpack.

Give me a freaking break, and don't talk to us like we're idiots.

 

[Thomas Veil]

More reporters down I don't care what network they are from, the put their lives on the line to cover these things. Nothing but respect for every one of them.

Ukraine war: Fox News cameraman and Ukrainian journalist killed in attack near Kyiv

Pierre Zakrzewski had been travelling in a vehicle near Kyiv with correspondent Benjamin Hall, who was injured, and Ukrainian journalist Oleksandra Kuvshinova, who was also killed.

news.sky.com

Ukraine war: Fox News cameraman and Ukrainian journalist killed in attack near Kyiv​

Pierre Zakrzewski had been travelling in a vehicle near Kyiv with correspondent Benjamin Hall, who was injured, and Ukrainian journalist Oleksandra Kuvshinova, who was also killed.

I also admire the three prime ministers who went to Kyiv to talk to Zelensky.

‘Europe stands with you’: EU leaders vow support for Ukraine during Kyiv visit

Leaders of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia express ‘unequivocal support’ for Ukraine after making perilous journey by train to meet Zelenskiy

www.theguardian.com

 

[Eric]

Zelensky's address was powerful, as was the video he presented as he made the case for a no-fly zone. I hope this changes some minds and we all do more for them, it's flat out genocide at this point and we have all have a responsibility to stop it.