Russia-Ukraine

it could be some elaborate psy-ops by the FSB, or who knows what else.
That's what I'd suspect. This reads as delusional, wishful thinking.
Who knows, I suspect something might have been lost in translation.

The big strategy is to drive a wedge between NATO and "the rest of the world" by Putin getting on the hotline to all and sundry and painting Russia as the non-agressor? How does that even begin to work plausibly? After all the sunflowers and Yello/Blue flags and emotive emojis…
Meanwhile, fingers crossed Iran and the US go to war.
Oh and BTW, the western governments are going to ask their populations whether going to war is OK?
That's not how it works.
24hours to lift sanctions? The West to say, "Oops we're sorry Comrade Putin. Carry on as before?"

I mean… really?

This reads like Berchtesgaden Kaffeehaus Tischgespräche.

At least, I hope so. Because if the Ruskies truly are this deluded, then god help us all.

I think Europe and the USA have kicked this can down the road as far as it can roll.
 
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I agree with you.
Terrible as it is, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is similar to the German invasion of the rump Czechoslovakia, March 1939.
European governments decried it, shouted and waved fists and bits of paper, but all knew they were not going to go to war.
Poland had an "assurance" from the United Kingdom and so… fast forward to September 1939.


Probably not.

The path to membership to EU and NATO is both Byzantine and labyrinthine…

To start, hinderances to Ukraine joining the EU:
Ukraine does not yet have the requisite level of economic development to join;
Large scale corruption. (Where Denmark is a Gold Standard 88/100, Ukraine is 33/100, Russia 30/100)

Yes, this is a country in devastating agony, but that does not mean all previous concerns evaporate — the lesser of evils? Zelensky's approval rating prior to the invasion was 25%.

If Ukraine had been a model candidate the EU would be doing all it can to allow Ukraine to join as fast as possible. The feet dragging should tell us something.

This is a case were there are no good choices, but there are better, cross your fingers choices. The argument might be there is a painful economic choice and possibly, but not guaranteed, world war, possibly world destruction ending choice and all it took was one megliomaniac with nukes to bring us to this point. :unsure:

And depending on Vlad, the powers in Russia that support him, and the people of Russia, there is no totally safe choice when significantly pushing back, crippling Russia’s economy. Is there any real surprise we are in this boat? I admit, it is easy to say as we watch the scenario unfold. Yet, the existence of nukes all along including MAD, means that the human race has been teetering with a short noose for the last 70 years, we have been playing with fire, hoping for the best, and the psychology is for average people not to think about it until they get their face shoved into it.

I’ll also speculate how much difference does it make that Russia has nukes? I’d say a little, but maybe not. I suspect a major war with Russia, with no nuclear exchange, would still be plenty painful to the world. The major difference is that without nukes we’d be much more assured of no armageddon scenario.

And it will be very interesting to see how China shakes out in this, in the end, Virtually all or the vast majority of their wealth (as far as I know) comes from trade with the West. If push comes to shove they know in the status quo they are in good shape with the West until they try something like invade Taiwan. Not guaranteed, but I could imagine them coming down on the side of the West in a shooting World War. And it’s interesting that in this scenario, while the West pushes back economically, and provides military aid to Ukrsine, they are verbally and economically coming down on Russia’s side, blaming the West, and no sanctions or cancelation of Russian business as far as I know. In this way until the WWIII breaks out, they can preserve their business deals all around.

The bottom line here is how much of a madman is Putin when Russia implodes economically? Yes him being remived from power, coming from Russians could solve the problem quickly, or regardless, if we blow up as a result of it, just how much of a surprise will this be? Honestly I will not be surprised If the worst happens. I spent part of my childhood practicing to kiss my ass goodbye under a school desk and we got a 60 year reprieve. Maybe we will find the strength to get rid of nukes if we survive this or we will just keep muddling on until the odds catch up with us.


So, if you want some more gloom and doom, here's the latest (6th) letter from the Russian whistleblower:

Caveat: as always, take it for what it is. That means it's *probably* authentic, but nothing is certain. The contents of the first letter had been confirmed by Bellingcat and others as being almost certainly legit from someone in the FSB. However, that doesn't mean the guy didn't get caught in the meantime, or it could be some elaborate psy-ops by the FSB, or who knows what else.
This is fascinating and simo scary because it might sound plausible. Now that could be the purpose, to scare us. Yet, I’ll say all bets are off yet as I mentioned above, with Russia’s go for broke military action in Ukraine, at this point I predict Putin won’t stop until he possesses the country completely or somehow it manages to survive and the action turns into a stalemate.

The variables i see:
  • The West must have the will to keep economic sanctions applied.
  • The West caves, Ukraine falls and Putin suceeds in part 2 or 3 of his resurrection of the USSR and with a several year rest to recoup, while keeping a new Cold War going, is emboldened to keep the expansion going.
  • The Russian people or the powers around Putin, rise up and remove him from power.
  • Initiating a nuclear launch is a death wish. Putin is either sane or insane and for the latter, for a good outcome, there must be a failsafe, people in a position to counter, to prevent the launch of nuclear weapons if his situation ever turns to shit.
 
Zelensky's address was powerful, as was the video he presented as he made the case for a no-fly zone. I hope this changes some minds and we all do more for them, it's flat out genocide at this point and we have all have a responsibility to stop it.

Do you think it's worth the gamble of potentially billions getting killed by nukes? There's no easy answer here but that possibility needs to be taken into consideration. NATO collectively could easily crush the Russian military and Putin knows that, or at least he knows that now looking at the poor performance in Ukraine. The only card left to potentially tip the scales would be nukes, and if he thinks he's going to go out regardless then why not go out big. For whatever reason, Russia has a nice long history of not giving a fuck about the lives of millions if ending them serves the state.

You'd like to hope somebody in the loop would disobey orders to fire nukes, but there's also a high probability that their propaganda would tell them that the west already launched theirs and they are just retaliating. Once launched there won't really be much left to dispute that narrative.
 
Russia announced that it was withdrawing from the Council of Europe (yesterday, 15 March), a move probably intended to pre-empt the decision of the Council of Europe to expel - or exclude - Russia (in fact, the Council of Ministers of the Council of Europe "agreed to suspend the Russian Federation from its rights of representation in the Council of Europe"), from the body later that same day.
 
Zelensky's address was powerful, as was the video he presented as he made the case for a no-fly zone. I hope this changes some minds and we all do more for them, it's flat out genocide at this point and we have all have a responsibility to stop it.

I think it was a great speech, very likely to be historic. I’m always impressed with how Zelenskyy tailors his speeches to his audience- talking about MLK, 9/11, Pearl Harbor with the Americans, talking about WWII, quoting Churchill, etc with the British.

Emotionally I totally support a no fly zone. In an ideal world I think everyone on the side of peace and freedom would as well. I’d love to see a bunch of F-35s and F-22s and F-15’s sweep in obliterate the Russian forces.

Every USAF or Navy airwing person I’ve spoken to and heard in the media says that a no-fly zone is feasible, not without likely starting the next world war. To have a no fly zone means it has to be enforced. That means NATO pilots vs Russian pilots. It also may mean having to take out Russian air defenses stationed in Russia or Belarus. It’s also possible NATO jets could be fired upon by Russian aircraft loitering in Russian territory. There are a lot of complications with that. When it comes to rules of engagement, that could potentially be worked out, but evidently Russia’s pilots have such little experience and the way they are flying their sorties indicates they are probably already afraid of Russian jets taking out other Russian jets. They apparently are having issues deconflicting their own aircraft as is.

One of the better insights I have heard that is if NATO starts patrolling Ukrainian Airspace and especially if NATO pilots start taking down Russian planes is that it feeds right into the Russian Propaganda of NATO being this existential evil force and consequently justifies the invasion to Russian people who already support the war *special military operation* or don’t know what to believe.

I’m thrilled to see the US via NATO allies will be transferring (Soviet) S-300 air defense systems and similar. Stinger missiles are very short range and really only useful against cruise helicopters and low flying planes- maybe very large drones too. The S-300 has much longer range and can take out high flying planes as well as cruise missiles. It’s also mobile to keep the Russians on their toes. If we can’t “close the skies” with NATO jets, the next best thing is flooding Ukraine; especially cities, with air defense systems. We need to make flying into Ukraine as dangerous as possible. In effect this might “close the skies” entirely, but make flying into Ukrainian held territory extremely risky.

Some S-300 variants also can handle ballistic missiles, which would also be very helpful. That said the Russian’s Iskander BM’s are very capable, with the ability for some maneuvering unlike typical BM’s and just recently have been found to have up to 6 decoys, something not known to exist in any other short range BM system. I would assume it’s best to destroy these before they are launched. Which I suppose is where drones might come in.

The Turkish TB2 drones have been extremely successful for the Ukrainians, as well as Azerbaijan in their war with Armenia. I’m happy to see the US will be supplying Switchblade “kamikaze” drones, which are pretty interesting- they’re almost like controlled artillery and amazingly cheap. They’re range isn’t particularly far so hopefully they will be provided with something more substantial as well.

If we’re supplying armed/Kamikaze drones I’m not sure why supplying Mig-29’s is that different. Evidently these Polish Migs have been fitted with NATO communications equipment that would have to be removed and replaced with something compatible with Ukrainians systems before transferring, which could take some time. Perhaps things are happening behind the scenes we aren’t aware of.

Apparently Mig 29’s have notoriously poor fuel consumption and no drop tanks, and to fly at an altitude below Russian’s radar obviously kills your fight time, so realistically they’re only capable of 30 min of flight time in such conditions… granted they’re cruising around at Mach 1.2 or so. So I’m not sure how useful these planes would be, but I think at the very least it would be a huge moral booster.

One thing I have heard nothing about are land based anti-ship missiles. I’m not sure what NATO has, but I believe the US’s system is still in development. This seems like an important capability when it comes to amphibious invasions and ships sitting in the Black Sea blasting cruise missiles into cities.
 
Wow, the way this guy talks

FN_XxHPVkAUu9q2

"Civil mutiny"? "Self-cleansing"? Does he have Hermann Goering on his staff?
 
31 Republican Senators voted against $13.6 billion for Ukraine. Now they have the unmitigated gall to accuse Biden of not doing enough to help.

The most prominent voice of hypocrisy is Mr. tax-the-poor himself, Sen. Dick Scott.

(paywall removed)

They talk as if they care, but when it was time to actually help, they voted against it. Remember who they are and never re-elect them.

And of course Josh Hawley is in the story:

In early February, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), another possible White House candidate, sent a letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken suggesting that the United States would be worse off if Ukraine were admitted to NATO, the military alliance of 30 mainly Western countries— including the United States — bound by a mutual defense treaty, andargued that the United States should instead focus on countering China.
Hawley, who voted against the spending bill with billions for Ukraine, said Wednesday that Biden needs to “step up” and send MiG jet fighters and other weapons to Ukraine, accusing the administration of “dragging its feet.”
 
Wow, the way this guy talks

FN_XxHPVkAUu9q2

"Civil mutiny"? "Self-cleansing"? Does he have Hermann Goering on his staff?
Well, Mike Godwin (the gentleman who actually created Godwin's Law, as his Twitter handle, @sfmnemonic, confirms), watched this speech (in full, as I did), and subsequently, (and, quite wonderfully), tweeted: "You're not going to believe who this guy reminds me of."
 
In line with that, watch this CNN interview with the ex-partner of a Russian oligarch. More confirmation about how Mafia-like Putin’s government is and Putin’s unbalanced state of mind.

Right at the end she makes a comment that, to my mind, draws comparisons to Individual-1.

'Complete lack of normal human morals': Russian oligarch's ex-partner describes life around Putin
 
This keeps getting more and more Trumpy. 🤨


He’s holding rallies now? For a war??

With sloganeering on posters yet?

Looks like he’s learned a thing or two from Donny. Next he’ll be leading crowds in “Build that wall!”-style chants.
 
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