USA Election 2024

[Eric]

The Washington Post Bends the Knee to Trump

Billionaires can’t be trusted to maintain the institutions of democracy.

www.thebulwark.com

Their model has been slowly but steadily trending that way for a while. It’s one of the reasons why I am very fucking depressed. 53 out of 100 is basically a toss up, but fuck it, it’s depressing.

You also have to wonder how they can accurately poll younger voters when they refused to be polled (or pickup a call).

Opinion | I'm a pollster. Here's why polling the 2024 election is harder than ever

We face three core challenges that threaten the accuracy of all political surveys.

www.msnbc.com

 

[Edd]

You also have to wonder how they can accurately poll younger voters when they refused to be polled (or pickup a call).

Opinion | I'm a pollster. Here's why polling the 2024 election is harder than ever

We face three core challenges that threaten the accuracy of all political surveys.

www.msnbc.com

I got polled recently for the first time I can remember. I never clicked on a link, it was a text conversation. The sender appeared to lost interest in polling me pretty quickly after I said I’d never vote for Trump. It stopped abruptly, and I very much sensed there were further questions to be asked.

 

[dada_dave]

You also have to wonder how they can accurately poll younger voters when they refused to be polled (or pickup a call).

Opinion | I'm a pollster. Here's why polling the 2024 election is harder than ever

We face three core challenges that threaten the accuracy of all political surveys.

www.msnbc.com

I got polled recently for the first time I can remember. I never clicked on a link, it was a text conversation. The sender appeared to lost interest in polling me pretty quickly after I said I’d never vote for Trump. It stopped abruptly, and I very much sensed there were further questions to be asked.

As the article states demographic issues are, on the surface, easy to correct for: basically just keep trying and give higher weight to the answers you get. In theory, you should only increase variance as a result. The weights can still be wrong, but are typically easier to justify. In theory.

In practice, the problem is closer to the above in @Edd’s post. A lot polls are (seemingly) push polls and even for those that aren’t people don’t trust that they aren’t and don’t want to waste their time. Thus the kind of person who actually responds to the polling, young or old, may not be representative of the electorate in personality or viewpoint. That’s much harder to correct for. We have a lot less experience modeling the psychology of non-responsiveness and biased samples are inherently more difficult to correct than merely low samples. That’s why pollsters now try to ask who you voted for the last few elections - a question that itself is fraught with problems because typically people remember voting for the winners more often that must’ve actually happened based on the vote counts the last set of winners actually got.

But as the pollster said, as difficult as they are to conduct properly, they still remain the best tool we have to gauge what’s going on in an election*, which is why I will likely stay despondent throughout the election.

*Interesting (to me anyway!), long side note: proper interpretation of polling even with “good” data, especially on support for policies, can also be tricky. Basically, a lot of people just don’t actually pay much much attention and respond to what they think the policy is about rather than what the policy actually is or would be. Or they ascribe policy positions to the wrong candidate by saying they support candidate A but support the actual policy positions of candidate B and believing candidate A has the policies they support because they support that candidate rather than the other way around. They project the policies they want onto the candidate they want rather than choose the candidate based on policies. This why “identity politics” in fact rules more than policy (and is highest amongst people who claim to hate identity politics - similarly the people who claim advertising doesn’t work on them are likely to be the most susceptible to it).

If you first attempt to explain the two policies of the respective candidates, you are basically pushing the poll, even if done with the best of intentions. This can still be fine for trying to gauge the actual support for a policy if the candidate were to enact said policy and people started to pay attention, but less so for judging who people will actually vote for given their current state of information.

 

[Katbel]

Wall Street Journal reported that billionaire Elon Musk, one of the richest men in the world, who is backing the election of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump with a daily million-dollar sweepstakes giveaway and gifts of tens of millions to the campaign, has been in regular contact with Russian president Vladimir Putin since late 2022.


Musk’s SpaceX, which operates the Starlink satellite system, won a $1.8 billion contract with U.S. military and intelligence agencies in 2021. It is the major rocket launcher for NASA and the Pentagon, and Musk has a security clearance; he says it is a top-secret clearance.

Today, NASA administrator Bill Nelson called for an investigation into the story. “If the story is true that there have been multiple conversations between Elon Musk and the president of Russia,” Nelson told Burgess Everett of Semafor, “then I think that would be concerning, particularly for NASA, for the Department of Defense, for some of the intelligence agencies.”

Musk appears to be making a bid for control of the Republican Party for a number of possible reasons, including so he can continue to score federal contracts and because the high tariffs Trump has promised to place on Chinese imports would guarantee that Musk would have leverage in the electrical vehicle market.


While Musk wants high tariffs against China to protect his access to electric vehicle markets, Bezos’s fortune comes from Amazon, and high tariffs would shatter his business. When he was in office, Trump went out of his way to find ways to hurt Amazon to get back at Bezos for unfavorable coverage in the Post.


After the announcement by the Washington Post, others stepped up to endorse Harris. The largest Teamsters union in Texas endorsed Harris before her rally tonight in Houston. In a blistering editorial, the Philadelphia Inquirer endorsed Harris, saying: “America deserves much more than an aspiring autocrat who ignores the law, is running to stay out of prison, and doesn’t care about anyone but himself.”

Tonight, Trump taped a podcast episode with Joe Rogan in Austin, Texas, hoping to reach Rogan’s large audience. He was still on the ground in Austin when he was supposed to be appearing at a rally in Traverse City, Michigan, and blamed the long taping for the fact he was three hours late to the rally. Tired of waiting, rally attendees streamed out. When he finally arrived, about 47,000 viewers watched the PBS live stream of the rally.

Harris was in Houston, where she took the fight for abortion rights to the heart of a state where an abortion ban has endangered women and driven up the infant mortality rate. People began standing in line before sunrise to get into the rally at the Houston Shell Energy Stadium and filled the 22,000-seat stadium to capacity. About 2.5 million people watched the PBS live stream.

Harris shared the stage with actor Jessica Alba and music legends Beyoncé and Willie Nelson, who asked the crowd: “Are we ready to say Madam President?”


From Heather Cox Richardson newsletter https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/october-25-2024

 

[Renzatic]

It’s odd that Harris has so much momentum, yet the election is so strangely close.

 

[dada_dave]

New Acquisitions: 1933 and the Definition of Fascism

Today we’re going to look at definitions of fascism and ask the question – you may have guessed – if Donald Trump is running for President as a fascist. Worry not, this isn’…

acoup.blog

Not a shock but the consensus amongst historians is that yes Trump is a fascist, even amongst those who would’ve resist such a label in 2016.

And a final message to conservatives who “hold their nose” to vote for Trump:

Because from this point forward, you may choose to look the other way, but you can never again say that you did not know. And while right now you may have many reasons and many concerns, if you sign your name to this fascist and a fascist government takes power as a result…your many reasons will no longer matter. No one really cares what Franz von Papen or Victor Emmanuel III or NSDAP or Blocco Nazionale voters were concerned about or their pet issues. It no longer mattered. Once a fascist government took power…they were fascists.

And that was all that ever mattered.

 

[GermanSuplex]

It’s odd that Harris has so much momentum, yet the election is so strangely close.

That’s why I said I believe the polls are more like 2012, when Romney was given a decent chance of winning and was leading Obama at this point in 2012. He lost decisively shortly after polls closed.

I don’t think we’ll have a verdict on election night, but the polling could end up similarly.

 

[dada_dave]

Mark Taylor (@emarktaylor@mastodon.online)

Attached: 1 image #USPol #WaPo

mastodon.online

View attachment 32189





In a similar vein:

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[fooferdoggie]

View attachment 32203

its been dead since it was about profit.

 

[Clix Pix]

Very sad : Bezos and Lewis are a terrible combination!
More than 2000 readers have already cancelled their subscription.

It has been a tumultuous couple of days here in the DC/MD/VA region as the stunning announcement made by The Washington Post reverberated around the US and the world. The comments and letters are pouring into the paper in response, and yes, many long-time subscribers are canceling their subscriptions or announcing their intent to do so. Some also are canceling their accounts at Amazon as well. Some of the comments are blistering in their anger at this action by the paper's so-called leadership. I've been a subscriber to the paper (first the printed version, now the online version) for many years, and all of this is more than distressing. The impact and implications are far-reaching and indeed, the Post's motto feels uncomfortably accurate right now. Even if they were to backtrack at this point and actually use the already-prepared formal endorsement which had been written by the Editorial Board, serious, probably irreparable, damage has been done by Bezos, Lewis and others.

This is just sickening.

 

[Katbel]

It has been a tumultuous couple of days here in the DC/MD/VA region as the stunning announcement made by The Washington Post reverberated around the US and the world. The comments and letters are pouring into the paper in response, and yes, many long-time subscribers are canceling their subscriptions or announcing their intent to do so. Some also are canceling their accounts at Amazon as well. Some of the comments are blistering in their anger at this action by the paper's so-called leadership. I've been a subscriber to the paper (first the printed version, now the online version) for many years, and all of this is more than distressing. The impact and implications are far-reaching and indeed, the Post's motto feels uncomfortably accurate right now. Even if they were to backtrack at this point and actually use the already-prepared formal endorsement which had been written by the Editorial Board, serious, probably irreparable, damage has been done by Bezos, Lewis and others.

This is just sickening.

I agree , it's sickening indeed and I guess more for you than for us even if we feel so close to you all here up north and I'm assuring you all
we would like to be able to vote if we could.
I really believe that the polls are not correct and I'm sure everyone who reads the WAPO has already made her/his decision and is not going to change it because a "Bezos" or a "Lewis" decided cowardly and for a quid pro quo to not to endorse Harris as they should have.
I'm already not buying from Amazon since a long time and I cancelled our subscription even if I'm sorry for all those journalists who don't deserve it. I really hope they will be able to change newspaper. Ann Telnaes was spot on with her black cartoon
and this is another one by claytoonz.com

 

[shadow puppet]

It’s odd that Harris has so much momentum, yet the election is so strangely close.

You have to hand to her though. Being thrown into the race so late & yet look at all the contributions raised for her election run. Not to mention, unlike the orange numbnut, she hasn't been shit scared to participate in interviews. How ever this turns out, she has moxie and has handled herself with professionalism and polish. I admire her for doing so.

 

[shadow puppet]

I. Am. Dying. Kamala's social media team is hysterical.

 

[GermanSuplex]

Eric Swalwell had a good ad too.

 

[Alli]

I know Jews who are voting for Trump despite his affinity for Nazis because they think he’d be “better for Israel.” It’s reprehensible and spits on the memory of the 6 million Jews and 5 million others murdered by the Nazi regime.

And shows they don’t care about the larger peace.

 

[Eric]

That’s why I said I believe the polls are more like 2012, when Romney was given a decent chance of winning and was leading Obama at this point in 2012. He lost decisively shortly after polls closed.

I don’t think we’ll have a verdict on election night, but the polling could end up similarly.

This is a good reminder. TBH I'm losing hope but would love to be proven wrong. Also looking closer at Vance as I can at least stomach him, I would take a festering sock ranting on a stage over Trump. The reality is he does not have 4 more coherent years left in him and will either die or end up senile before it's up, so we need to be taking Vance seriously IMO.

 

[dada_dave]

This is a good reminder. TBH I'm losing hope but would love to be proven wrong. Also looking closer at Vance as I can at least stomach him, I would take a festering sock ranting on a stage over Trump. The reality is he does not have 4 more coherent years left in him and will either die or end up senile before it's up, so we need to be taking Vance seriously IMO.

Vance is almost as much a fascist as Trump. The historian I linked to above went into Vance and Trumpism at large as well.

 

[GermanSuplex]

Vance is just Trump with an IQ - and just as big a grifter and liar. I don’t care if he has a future in the GOP or not.

I have little respect for the running mate of America’s Hitler. Given the republican record of how they treat the people they elevate, I’m not counting on much from JD Vance if he loses the election. He’ll probably go the McCarthy/Paul Ryan route.

 

[dada_dave]

New Acquisitions: 1933 and the Definition of Fascism

Today we’re going to look at definitions of fascism and ask the question – you may have guessed – if Donald Trump is running for President as a fascist. Worry not, this isn’…

acoup.blog

Not a shock but the consensus amongst historians is that yes Trump is a fascist, even amongst those who would’ve resist such a label in 2016.

And a final message to conservatives who “hold their nose” to vote for Trump:

You know only a maximum of 39% of the German electorate ever voted for Hitler. Trump is likely to get nearly 50% even if he loses.

That’s how fucked we are even if Harris wins.

 

[Eric]

Vance is almost as much a fascist as Trump. The historian I linked to above went into Vance and Trumpism at large as well.

I don’t disagree but it won’t be Trump and that is key. Trump absolutely sucks the oxygen and any sort of happiness/hope out of the room with every hateful word that comes out his mouth.

It’s to the point that I’ve never hated a person more and the thought of another 4 years of that son of a bitch is suffocating. I would gladly take any other Republican just to change that.