Will Kevin McCarthy become Speaker?

The problem is, McCarthy doesn't appear to have moved the needle much (if at all) after another whole afternoon and evening of negotiations, and it doesn't look like he's moved the needle at all with the 5 or 6 hard no votes.

He could lose more votes this round. I'm not 100% against the dems compromising, but the problem is... Jeffries is getting more votes than the majority leader. He needs fewer republicans than McCarthy - that's a strong leg to stand on if you were to argue that Jeffries should be given the nod. I'm not saying "Democrats shouldn't negotiate and republicans should move to the left". Not at all. I'm just saying, from a numbers game, Jeffries has more support in the house.
 
GermanSuplex said:
The problem is, McCarthy doesn't appear to have moved the needle much (if at all) after another whole afternoon and evening of negotiations, and it doesn't look like he's moved the needle at all with the 5 or 6 hard no votes.

He could lose more votes this round. I'm not 100% against the dems compromising, but the problem is... Jeffries is getting more votes than the majority leader. He needs fewer republicans than McCarthy - that's a strong leg to stand on if you were to argue that Jeffries should be given the nod. I'm not saying "Democrats shouldn't negotiate and republicans should move to the left". Not at all. I'm just saying, from a numbers game, Jeffries has more support in the house.
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IF the dems negotiate, they shouldn't get greedy. Just ask for re-elected members of committees to still sit on those committees, otherwise I think everything else would be a non starter.
 
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rdrr said:
So all those concessions and negotiations led to zero gain in votes? Yeah, he is the leader they are looking for.
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He's a known liar and empty suit that nobody in the party really likes....and (possibly unshockingly) the best they've got. He's been reduced to a recently discovered island where every member of the freedom caucus has planted a flag and gone "Mine!"
 
lizkat said:
Well somehow I don't think that this USA contest is going to end up taking 133 votes. I could be wrong, but money does talk.

From running commentary in the NYT this morning (Luke Broadwater Jan. 5, 2023, 10:08 a.m.)
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That's very true. My first job out of college was at Lewis and Clark College here in Portland. Every department (admissions, financial aid, security, etc) always felt their problem was the most important and the first one that needed to be worked on. Unless Payroll was down. Then, every single time, the answer was "after you get payroll going, MY problem is the next one you need to jump on". In 5 years, I never once heard someone suggest that payroll could wait. Money does indeed talk. Especially when your paycheck is on the line.

Hopefully this time will be the exception. I'm rather enjoying the show and I'm not ready for it to end.
 
This is painful to watch. The sad part of it is, McCarthy probably would have been a fine Speaker in any other previous time. He (at least used to) make bipartisan votes, tried for a time to keep his wild members in check, and appeared as if he may have tried to lead the house republicans in a better direction after January 6. He caved quickly, and has failed as leader since.

To be fair to McCarthy, I'm not sure anyone can lead that caucus right now. I'm convinced republicans will be forced to split into two parties, or a majority of republicans will have to start calling out the members who tank the caucus. That may cause election losses, vicious in-fighting or more, but we're already getting a small dose of that now. I don't see this Speaker election and the demands of the hard-right helping that.

In fact, since McCarthy has given so much - far more than he should have to shore up support, which he still hasn't done. That he still doesn't have the votes tell me that what the 20 really want is an ability to legislate without votes. That's what I think this is about. Overcoming the power deficit. MAGA-conservatism is a minority of the country, yet they want to govern as the majority.

*When 5 million more Americans voted for republicans, it showed they wanted change". - Some random GOP member.

Oh yeah? Why does the same not apply to 2020?
 
Hey maybe 8 will be Kevin's lucky number? Sure let's go again with seemingly no change in strategy. Maybe banging your head against a wall is the new Republican strategy?
 
I do agree with the 20 on one thing - maintaining status quo doesn't work. Maybe this is just human nature sorting things out when elected officials can't muster the willingness or know-how to work together.

Unfortunately, negativity and fighting perpetuate each other. But the reverse is also true - people working together and showing things can get done can be infectious too. Problem is, neither side has really been able to get that ball rolling.
 
Gaetz, Boebert, Good and Biggs have all committed to never voting for McCarthy. That's four, and that's all McCarthy can lose if every member votes. If those four caved and voted present, that lowers the threshold to 216, meaning McCarthy could lose 2 votes. If the four vote against him and he can convince six members of the 20 to vote "Present", that lowers the winning threshold to 213 - one more vote than democrats have - and McCarthy can win. But even then, he'd need to convince 10 holdouts.


There's very little math that works for him with the margin being so thin. There's not a lot of room for errors - if they get it down to an exact number and try to execute, one of the four could vote for Jeffries and give him the speakership. It’s doubtful that would happen, but its hard to rule anything out these days. But given that republicans catch hell anytime they pass something with democrats, that could prove fatal to an FC member.
 
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MEJHarrison said:
:LOL:

I might be a liberal from Portland. But the first 11 years on this earth I spent in rural Ohio. I'd bet we have plenty in common outside politics.
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Fellow midwesterner here and a resident of one the states bordering the Great Lakes as well. 13 years in MN...
 

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