Will Kevin McCarthy become Speaker?

[shadow puppet]

I'm dead.

 

[Macky-Mac]

At what point do some of the senior Republicans supporting McCarthy take him into a room and tell him it's over?

I suspect it would be after he starts losing significant numbers of votes.......which hasn't happened yet.

 

[Clix Pix]

This is getting beyond absurdity.....anyone who claims to be a Republican ought to be ashamed of this nonsense!

 

[Macky-Mac]

....So enough people on the Democratic side would have to go along. Would they agree to vote for a moderate Republican Speaker, or would they press for Hakeem Jeffries, and how many Republicans would agree to that?

my guess is that if the democrats decide to intervene, then they'll facilitate getting McCarthy elected........which they could easily do if they wanted to. They wouldn't even have to vote for him. It's just a matter of getting a dozen or two of them to not vote and then McCarthy could get his majority of votes cast.

 

[shadow puppet]

He really is stark raving delusional.

 

[dada_dave]

my guess is that if the democrats decide to intervene, then they'll facilitate getting McCarthy elected........which they could easily do if they wanted to. They wouldn't even have to vote for him. It's just a matter of getting a dozen or two of them to not vote and then McCarthy could get his majority of votes cast.

McCarthy would have to give concessions to the Democrats and probably the kind that would end his career … even more than it already has been. Like seriously there would be threats of violence on his life. He doesn’t have the spine. If he had the kind of spine we wouldn’t be in this mess.

 

[dada_dave]

Elon Musk endorsed Kevin McCarthy … I guess he was upset another clown show was upstaging him and he wanted the spotlight back on him. Because otherwise who gives a rats ass about Elon’s opinion on the speakership - especially when not even Trump could get Kevin over. In fact, given Elon’s recent track record, it feels like more a curse than a help. Elon hasn’t taken over the cult yet and many of its acolytes registered their displeasure at his transgression even though Trump said the same.

 

[lizkat]

He really is stark raving delusional.

View attachment 20615

Memo to Trump:

January 6 is Three Kings Day (Ephiphany). Sorry Donald, your Great Day has been reserved for other purposes already, and for over 1600 years.​

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For some it's a solemn occasion with churchgoing in the picture, for others it's just about taking the holiday decorations down after "the twelfth day of Christmas".​

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For others, especially those obliged to elect a House speaker, it might be Kevin McCarthy Day. Fitting for an anniversary of the appalling 1/6 insurrection to end up being the date Kevin manages to deal away enough democracy to win the House speakership he wants so badly.​

​

Why not come back on April 1, a festive day set aside just for you. Party hats, fast food, Diet Cokes...​

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Meanwhile thanks for playing.​

 

[lizkat]

This is getting beyond absurdity.....anyone who claims to be a Republican ought to be ashamed of this nonsense!

I was thinking of writing that to my Congressman-elect, who is a Republican this time around... But then I realized I don't know how to get ahold of him yet and anyway he's not even sworn in.

 

[lizkat]

Bloomberg News was reporting that it's possible that McCarthy could win with just 213 votes, if 11 of the holdouts shifted to McCarthy and 9 vote "present" rather than casting a vote for any named individual. Votes for "present" are not counted as having been cast at all when figuring the total required to win.

After discussions with some of the Republican holdouts late Wednesday and agreeing to make it possible for a single Republican to call for a vote to remove a speaker, people familiar with the talks think it’s possible that 11 of the 20 dissidents will shift their support to McCarthy. That, combined with Spartz’s vote, who backed McCarthy in earlier rounds of voting, would total 213 votes.

Here’s a breakdown of the math McCarthy and his team are pursuing:

McCarthy: 213​

Jeffries: 212​

Present: 9​

​

I guess they assume everyone already voting for McCarthy continues to vote for him.

Still it seems risky. What if one of those holdouts promises to vote for McCarthy and then reneges and casts a vote for Jeffries out of sheer spite, to prevent McCarthy's win using this scheme after all. You can't add a nominee while the voting is occurring, so it's not like McCarthy could beg a few holdouts to vote for Hern or Donalds to raise the bar past 213 to win, if the scheme started to collapse during the vote and no one had nominated anyone but Jeffries and McCarthy. Kevin's desperate if he signs onto this gig.

Edit: Anyway this didn't happen on Thursday, and McCarthy slid to 200 not 201, so he'd have been tied with Jeffries if that addtional "present" scenario had played out after that one-vote slippage.

 

[dada_dave]

 

[Eric]

McCarthy would have to give concessions to the Democrats and probably the kind that would end his career … even more than it already has been. Like seriously there would be threats of violence on his life. He doesn’t have the spine. If he had the kind of spine we wouldn’t be in this mess.

I see it as a wasted opportunity for both parties but there is so much division and hatred that one is seen as the enemy for working with the other side. How can any of these politicians claim that we need to "bridge the political divide and work together as a country" when they themselves refuse to do it.

IMO Democrats make a diplomatic approach to McCarthy and ask for certain concessions, yes he'll lose more Republican votes if he does but the Democrats can make up that deficit.

 

[rdrr]

I see it as a wasted opportunity for both parties but there is so much division and hatred that one is seen as the enemy for working with the other side. How can any of these politicians claim that we need to "bridge the political divide and work together as a country" when they themselves refuse to do it.

IMO Democrats make a diplomatic approach to McCarthy and ask for certain concessions, yes he'll lose more Republican votes if he does but the Democrats can make up that deficit.

He would have hold at least 80% of his 200, then he would only need 57 Dems to vote for him. That does seem like a large amount of Democrats to cast a ballot for him. I think his best bet is to work with the Dems to vote present and hold onto 200(ish). I think he would need around 32 present votes or so... (?). Seems more plausible, but with every vote I think the votes he holds onto goes down. I am sure the concessions ask by the Democrats will be a bridge too far... so I say there is a chance but a very slim one with every round of voting. I could see this thing going past next week if McCarthy doesn't secure it today. IMO the chaos created by the factions on who will become the next speaker will be wild.

Oh and Donalds was a pawn in this thing after all. The 20 tried to claim it wasn't but why have they shifted gears to another candidate?

 

[SuperMatt]

At least it took 16 pages before people started to call this GOP meltdown a both sides issue.

It isn’t.

Every time a Republican gets us into a war, or de-regulates their way into a global financial crisis, or raises the federal debt by trillions with irresponsible tax cuts, the Democrats are voted back in to clean up the mess.

If American voters want Democrats to clean this up, vote in 2024. Until then, deal with the clown show. It’s what a majority of voters chose.

If the GOP House needs help? Vote for Jeffries. Easy. If they’re not willing to do that, they can keep the circus in town for another week. Who cares? Even if they pick a Speaker, they will just go straight to examining Hunter Biden d!ck pix, so what’s the point?

It would be truly stupid from a political perspective for a single Democrat to give anything to the GOP right now. America needs to see the incredible dysfunction of the Republican Party. They want to see what it means for their chosen clowns to “shake things up” in Washington? Well, here you go. This is what it looks like when you throw a wrench into the works. It’s utterly pointless and accomplishes nothing. At some point, they will get sufficient pressure from their voters to investigate CRT indoctrination or transgender witches or any other issue they promised to get to the bottom of. Then they will pick a Speaker and move on. Until then, let them fight amongst each other. Dems should stay out of it.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

We’ve heard he’s made a lot of concessions to the short bus book burners, but I wonder how many aren’t voting for him for that exact reason. Regardless, this is seriously holding up the Republican agenda of Biden lying about his dog’s breed and increasing the grease percentage and meat topping variety on school cafeteria pizza.

 

[GermanSuplex]

I see it as a wasted opportunity for both parties but there is so much division and hatred that one is seen as the enemy for working with the other side. How can any of these politicians claim that we need to "bridge the political divide and work together as a country" when they themselves refuse to do it.

IMO Democrats make a diplomatic approach to McCarthy and ask for certain concessions, yes he'll lose more Republican votes if he does but the Democrats can make up that deficit.

Exactly. I don't want a McCarthy speakership. But once Trump lost the election and January 6 occurred, I was hoping the sane McCarthy would try to cater more to the moderates in his base than the crazies, but its been the exact opposite.

I don't believe McCarthy is a bad man. He just really, really wants this job. We can argue whether its ego, pride, etc. - but in and of itself there's nothing wrong with having a dream like that. He probably would have been a decent, moderate speaker in any other less-turbulent political time. I think his downfall is certainly due to some bad choices, but definitely also bad luck. It's just the wrong era of politics for a man like McCarthy to lead a caucus that is divided. He's a moderate working with extremists for political survival, and that doesn't appeal to the hard-right or the left.

I say all this because there's still hope for him, and while I don't like him, I'd much rather see him get the gavel, work with dems and take the heat (his career is over with after this congress IMO - I don't see how bargaining with the FC helps all these 200 people working with McCarthy - it just gives them that much more power and will make them harder to defeat the next time some sort of insane BS comes up.) They will call him a RINO anytime he votes on almost anything of note with democrats, he'll constantly face confidence votes.... why not at least try to negotiate with dems and get the seat? 200 republicans and a few democrats > 20 hard-line McCarthy "no" votes.

One more interesting note that was mentioned by one of the talking heads last night - McCarthy is dealing with a few members-elect who have yet to be sworn in. How many of the incoming reps are going to join in with the Gaetz's and Boeberts of the world and make his life that much harder?

If its going to be McCarthy no matter what, I'd rather it happen as a moderate than a guy dominated by the right flank. To be honest, I've got a lot of mixed thoughts on this whole thing. I'm sympathetic to a degree but I'm not, I don't like the guy all that much but I guess part of me just sort of shakes my head every time I see this traditional moderate conservatives bending to BS that we ALL KNOW they don't agree with. They even often tell the truth, then backtrack when it become politically inconvenient. The only way to make things better is to sacrifice egos and careers.

Of course, this would also require some democrats to take possible heat for working with republicans and "caving" to McCarthy.

 

[lizkat]

I don't believe McCarthy is a bad man. He just really, really wants this job. We can argue whether its ego, pride, etc. - but in and of itself there's nothing wrong with having a dream like that. He probably would have been a decent, moderate speaker in any other less-turbulent political time. I think his downfall is certainly due to some bad choices, but definitely also bad luck. It's just the wrong era of politics for a man like McCarthy to lead a caucus that is divided. He's a moderate working with extremists for political survival, and that doesn't appeal to the hard-right or the left.

McCarthy was indeed a moderate until the Tea Party came along more than a decade ago... and he seemed not to realize at first that by dealing with them as if they were conservative peers, he was embarking on a path of eventually trying to negotiate with barn burners. He really thought they were about reform of conservative policy, not straight-up extreme libertarian anti-government activism.

 

[SuperMatt]

Of course, this would also require some democrats to take possible heat for working with republicans and "caving" to McCarthy.

Absolutely not. As I said, if Americans wants Dems to save them, VOTE for them. Until then, this is what they deserve.

Do not forget McCarthy and his inexcusable actions surrounding the Jan 6 committee. And booting Liz Cheney from leadership for doing her patriotic duty.

Should the Democrats trample the memory of fallen Capitol police officers and kiss McCarthy’s ring?

Should they partner with the people who found their one black friend so they could make a speech about MLK, then kicked him to the curb on the next vote?

ENOUGH of the Dems bailing out the GOP. ENOUGH! The Republicans have to clean this up themselves.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

McCarthy was indeed a moderate until the Tea Party came along more than a decade ago... and he seemed not to realize at first that by dealing with them as if they were conservative peers, he was embarking on a path of eventually trying to negotiate with barn burners. He really thought they were about reform of conservative policy, not straight-up extreme libertarian anti-government activism.

I’ll give credit to this movement for one thing. For decades we’ve had the meritocracy lie pushed on us – work hard/get a degree and you are guaranteed success and happiness as the system continually pushes the goalposts further away and occasionally kicks the chair out from under you. Sometimes it’s nice seeing the “I’ve earned this!” public figures not getting what they believe is theirs by default because that’s how it works out for countless others.

 

[Herdfan]

I’ll give credit to this movement for one thing. For decades we’ve had the meritocracy lie pushed on us – work hard/get a degree and you are guaranteed success and happiness as the system continually pushes the goalposts further away and occasionally kicks the chair out from under you. Sometimes it’s nice seeing the “I’ve earned this!” public figures not getting what they believe is theirs by default because that’s how it works out for countless others.

Yes!, Yes! Yes!

We need to be done with the "It's their turn". It is your turn only if you earn it and simply being in a district that allows you to be there for 20+ years is not earning it.

And that is one reason I liked Donalds. Sure he doesn't have "House" experience, but he is also just a couple years removed from living as a regular person and not a Washington insider. So he might remember that a dozen eggs that cost under $1 when he was first elected are now $4-5. We need more like him and less like McCarthy.