Will Kevin McCarthy become Speaker?

Herdfan said:
Maybe it needs to be blown up. Whatever they are doing is not working.
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While I agree up to a point, and this is going to sound odd coming from a liberal, I worry about happens to American democracy without a viable Conservative Party that believes in governing and democracy even if I would disagree vociferously with such a party’s stances. Conservatives should have an outlet for their votes and voices consisting of adults and if the Republicans aren’t it, it goes downhill. Which in my opinion is part of what we’ve been seeing. Although I’ll be blunt I don’t know how to rescue them and ourselves. Maybe this is the way. But it’s incredibly risky.
 
dada_dave said:
Conservatives should have an outlet for their votes and voices consisting of adults and if the Republicans aren’t it, it goes downhill.
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Exactly. They have had that in the past and got somewhere (obviously) when they had speakers like Boehner and Ryan. Negotiators. McCarthy is one of those.

The hard right wants to go places that regular conservatives don't even want to go. They do no one a favor, not their own constituents, their caucus, their conference or the USA.

I'm concerned they'll try to take the country over a cliff on the debt limit thing. I hope McCarthy and the Senate and White House can prevent that from coming to a shutdown, or worse, an impasse and default on our obligations. These guys don't seem like they care that they're more or less staging a Republican Party suicide mission. It's absurd. They don't have the numbers to run the table. Yet here we are because they do have a voice and are indeed exercising it... BUT NOT AS ADULTS.
 
GermanSuplex said:
This may be true in deep-red areas, but its probably hurting the party nationally.
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People have short memories. Most people are unaware of what is going on. They might read some blurb about it, but at that point it will be over.
 
The only solution I can see can’t happen for another year and a half where Trump formally splits the Maga wing off in a bid to be a presidential contender. I say this not only because of the short term implications for Democratic electoral aspirations at every level of government, but because long term it’s the only chance for adults with a spine to wrest control back of the Republican Party and split MAGA from conservatism. And this is the best case scenario for that series of events, worst case is still pretty bad.
 
The Times embedded this exchange of tweets between Charlie Kirk and MTG

splitting the baby.jpg
 
lizkat said:
The Times embedded this exchange of tweets between Charlie Kirk and MTG

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Eoof I’d love for that to work but I doubt you’d get any Republican reps to join, they kicked out those that would’ve and none of those left have will or even desire to cut their own throats to save something from democracy or even their own party. I dunno maybe.
 
lizkat said:
The Times embedded this exchange of tweets between Charlie Kirk and MTG

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Works for me. IIRC the 50/50 Senate in the Bush 43 era worked very well. The 50/50 Senate in the Schumer/McConnell era not so well.

If this happens, then it is 100% on McCarthy for not stepping aside to allow a consensus candidate emerge.
 
Here it is in a nutshell.

Emily Cochrane, NYT commentary, 517pm

Dan Crenshaw, Republican of Texas, says of the holdouts: “We’ve tried, and to a member, they have no idea what they want. It’s actually quite astonishing. They can’t articulate what they want because they’ve already gotten so many of the things they want.”​
​
I rest my case: the holdouts are for obstruction. They're not Newt Gingrich acolytes. They're clowns.
 
Herdfan said:
Works for me. IIRC the 50/50 Senate in the Bush 43 era worked very well. The 50/50 Senate in the Schumer/McConnell era not so well.

If this happens, then it is 100% on McCarthy for not stepping aside to allow a consensus candidate emerge.
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Well, I'd say the Schumer era looked worse for democrats than the body as a whole. McConnell and Schumer actually got more done than I anticipated, and I was shocked that they handed Biden some bipartisan wins.

I think the senate saw the writing on the wall, but not the house. That's the difference in leadership. Nobody likes McConnell, but few people say he sucks as leader of his caucus.

Tomorrow is a new day. Maybe the far-right has made their point and will stand down, maybe vote present together to allow McCarthy a win without voting for him. Although even with that scenario, he'd need to shore up support from some of the people who voted "no" for him, because he can only afford a few "present" votes without handing the victory to Jeffries - who bested McCarthy three times in a row today. If you had told me that would have happened when republicans won the majority, I'd have called you crazy. Heck, did we even know Jeffries would lead the caucus at that point? And imagine that - it came right after a long-tenured leader stepped down. You'd think there would be more of a fight over that, but nothing. Thank God.

Anyways, if 8 republicans vote "Present", that takes the total count down to 426, meaning 214 will get you the win. If everyone else votes for McCarthy, he'll get the seat. But to do that, he'd need to flip 12 of his "no" votes to "yes".

Unless the holdouts relent, I don't see a path for McCarthy. It really is a standoff, as was promised by both McCarthy and his right-wing opponents.
 
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The GQP is on a suicide mission. It's McCarthy or bust. He steps aside and the next fool will probably get an even higher number of renegades voting against him. I can't see Gym Jordan getting more votes than McCarthy.

I seriously doubt Republicans will govern responsibly and just want them to get this BS over with it so the American people voters can punish stupidity in 2024.
 
It's a no win situation at this point. McCarthy steps aside and they go through a couple of rounds of name that "plan B" that will be out in a few months on to the next plan b... Or he gains support for a narrow victory and is a weak leader that will be out in a few months.
 
ronntaylor said:
The GQP is on a suicide mission. It's McCarthy or bust. He steps aside and the next fool will probably get an even higher number of renegades voting against him. I can't see Gym Jordan getting more votes than McCarthy.

I seriously doubt Republicans will govern responsibly and just want them to get this BS over with it so the American people voters can punish stupidity in 2024.
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I think the Dems should cast their votes for Jordan. Best way to get rid of him as the Chair of the Judiciary Committee.
 
lizkat said:
Exactly. They have had that in the past and got somewhere (obviously) when they had speakers like Boehner and Ryan. Negotiators. McCarthy is one of those.

The hard right wants to go places that regular conservatives don't even want to go. They do no one a favor, not their own constituents, their caucus, their conference or the USA.

I'm concerned they'll try to take the country over a cliff on the debt limit thing. I hope McCarthy and the Senate and White House can prevent that from coming to a shutdown, or worse, an impasse and default on our obligations. These guys don't seem like they care that they're more or less staging a Republican Party suicide mission. It's absurd. They don't have the numbers to run the table. Yet here we are because they do have a voice and are indeed exercising it... BUT NOT AS ADULTS.
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I don't think Boehner or Ryan would have compromised themselves to the extent McCarthy has. He went from saying Trump bore responsibility for January 6 to kissing his ring at Mar-a-Lago, not to mention giving in to the extreme elements in the GOP. He's weak and unprincipled. The country needs a strong, conservative opposition, led by someone who can direct his party away from the fringes and negotiate in good faith.
 

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