Will Kevin McCarthy become Speaker?

Please pardon me, but I just skipped the entire thread and came to what is currently the last page (6). If it weren’t so important, it would be funny. But there really is nothing funny about the way the GOP is playing with Democracy. They can’t come up with a leader for themselves, and yet they want the country to believe they can lead the people? Preposterous.

I’m not laughing. I’m just sad, ashamed, and angry.
 
GermanSuplex said:
Well, I'd say the Schumer era looked worse for democrats than the body as a whole. McConnell and Schumer actually got more done than I anticipated, and I was shocked that they handed Biden some bipartisan wins.

I think the senate saw the writing on the wall, but not the house. That's the difference in leadership. Nobody likes McConnell, but few people say he sucks as leader of his caucus.

Tomorrow is a new day. Maybe the far-right has made their point and will stand down, maybe vote present together to allow McCarthy a win without voting for him. Although even with that scenario, he'd need to shore up support from some of the people who voted "no" for him, because he can only afford a few "present" votes without handing the victory to Jeffries - who bested McCarthy three times in a row today. If you had told me that would have happened when republicans won the majority, I'd have called you crazy. Heck, did we even know Jeffries would lead the caucus at that point? And imagine that - it came right after a long-tenured leader stepped down. You'd think there would be more of a fight over that, but nothing. Thank God.

Anyways, if 8 republicans vote "Present", that takes the total count down to 426, meaning 214 will get you the win. If everyone else votes for McCarthy, he'll get the seat. But to do that, he'd need to flip 12 of his "no" votes to "yes".

Unless the holdouts relent, I don't see a path for McCarthy. It really is a standoff, as was promised by both McCarthy and his right-wing opponents.
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If the holdouts miscalculate on a scenario of deciding to vote present then they WILL hand it to Jeffries. I can see McCarthy agreeing to coalition House management before going along with that idea, although he wouldn't have the last word on it. But it's pretty risky.

A saner possible path forward for McCarthy may depend on how sincere Jordan was in accepting a nomination while urging his now 20 supporters to back McCarthy.

If Jordan meets privately with the holdouts he figures are more malleable than the self-proclaimed immovable not-Kevin voters, he might be able to dig up the votes McCarthy needs. He's in a far better position to get them to listen to him than McCarthy could ever be, despite Kevin being the one eventually empowered to hand out committee posts.

There would be a price to McCarthy set by Jordan for that service down the road, not now.

And.. there's no price that the lingering holdouts could really exact from Jordan for being persuasive behind the scenes. He's a lot like Dick Cheney in a way, content to hold some high cards and not flash them, and he's not as stupid as some of the rest of his caucus.
 
Why do you all seem to want McCarthy as Speaker?

Is it because you know he will cave to what the Dems want?
 
There’s no way Jordan has the votes. McCarthy got the votes because he’s milquetoast. But there’s no room for moderates in the party - McCarthy should know best, he went along with booting Liz Cheney. She’s kind of like McCarthy with morals.

Jordan is well-liked enough among republicans, but after thinking about it, I don’t think there are enough low-key republicans who would support him. A lot of these republicans you’ve never heard of in purple districts would never vote for Jordan. Jordan may pick up McCarthy’s detractors, but probably lose twice as many McCarthy colleagues.

If the 20% of far-right republicans sink McCarthy, I don’t see someone further to the right winning the seat. I think it will be worse tomorrow because the fight is already out in the open now, both sides have vowed not to back down, and whoever blinks first will look weak. No doubt the third or so of republicans who are more MAGA than traditional republicans are happy McCarthy was denied and want him to step aside.

Just saw a clip of MTG attacking the freedom caucus.

This is a party in disarray. If they think electing Jordan will help, they are sadly mistaken.
 
Herdfan said:
Why do you all seem to want McCarthy as Speaker?
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I don’t want McCarthy as speaker at all. I’d prefer some unknown Republican backbencher who’s been around awhile, wins re-election with bipartisan support in their district and doesn’t have a laundry list of racist and hateful things they’ve said and done. McCarthy would have fit that bill… before Trump.

The problem is, there’s no room for moderates in the party because the minority are the loudest in the room, and the rank and file are afraid to stand up to them.

McCarthy is in the very situation he gave the farm away to avoid. That is because he is a poor leader, he’s made deals with people he should have dealt with long ago, and he’s unfit to lead a party, let alone be speaker.

Can’t speak for anyone else, but I hope that clears where I stand.
 
Herdfan said:
Why do you all seem to want McCarthy as Speaker?

Is it because you know he will cave to what the Dems want?
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No, it's because he's the closest to having the votes of his conference and it's time to get on with the work, or at least find out if the work is going to be all investigate-Biden and obstruct-Dems for two years. The choice is up to the Rs, so let them make it already. Dems were prepared to be bystanders for a couple of years ahead, but probably didn't imagine until recently that they'd be so comically entertained on Day One.

However, Ds and Rs alike might be almost tired of so much popcorn out here in the land of working stiffs.
 
GermanSuplex said:
McCarthy is in the very situation he gave the farm away to avoid. That is because he is a poor leader, he’s made deals with people he should have dealt with long ago, and he’s unfit to lead a party, let alone be speaker.
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I think most see McCarthy as unlikely to get the Speakership and are enjoying his collapse. He'll fight as long as possible, but I think it ultimately will mean a severe psycho gets the gavel.
 
ronntaylor said:
I think most see McCarthy as unlikely to get the Speakership and are enjoying his collapse. He'll fight as long as possible, but I think it ultimately will mean a severe psycho gets the gavel.
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"... a severe psycho.." There's an ambiguous term if there ever was one for this version of the GOP.
 
lizkat said:
"... a severe psycho.." There's an ambiguous term if there ever was one for this version of the GOP.
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I can see Gym Jordan slithering into the role. And what the hell is Scalise doing to get Qevin the gavel? He's not putting himself out there at all. Wouldn't surprise me if he tries to backstab whoever to get the gavel. I consider him a psycho as well. At this point it doesn't really matter who gets the gavel on the GQP side as they'll rule over a bunch of whackos intent on not governing and making life hard for Americans. Including those foolish to vote them into office in the first place.
 
ronntaylor said:
"People saying that Dems are going to get *tired* and leave to make McCarthy speaker really don't know about the recuperative powers of watching a guy who threw his hat in with people who came to your office to kill you suffer repeated humiliations." -- Elie Mystal
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Rep. Clyburn was asked about this, and he said he doesn't foresee dems missing any votes.

For a guy who pledged to fight as long as it took, he gave up quick today. I don't doubt both sides wanted to go home, but - and this is the part I hate, because it makes people like Chip Roy sound correct - just because today is usually ceremonial or they have family in town doesn't mean it should have been a quick day. They weren't on the floor long today, all things considered. For all the bluster about "getting right to work for the American people", "rolling up our sleeves" and all that shit... they sure didn't let a thing like choosing a speaker get in the way of their festivities today. Nope, let's adjourn for the day.

That's a criticism of the body as a whole though.
 
Herdfan said:
Not a single one opposing him is damaging themselves back home. In fact, they may be increasing their appeal.
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Please. Farther-rights won GOP primaries and then watched conservatives vote for Democrats! And that was just the midterms. Presidential races in November have more coattails than stuff like Senatorial or gubernatorial races in the midterms.

ronntaylor said:
I can see Gym Jordan slithering into the role. And what the hell is Scalise doing to get Qevin the gavel? He's not putting himself out there at all. Wouldn't surprise me if he tries to backstab whoever to get the gavel. I consider him a psycho as well. At this point it doesn't really matter who gets the gavel on the GQP side as they'll rule over a bunch of whackos intent on not governing and making life hard for Americans. Including those foolish to vote them into office in the first place.
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Some of those right-leaning voters expressed buyers' remorse in 2022. In 2024 it might be even stronger.
 
GermanSuplex said:
For all the bluster about "getting right to work for the American people", "rolling up our sleeves" and all that shit... they sure didn't let a thing like choosing a speaker get in the way of their festivities today. Nope, let's adjourn for the day.
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I think it's over for McCarthy. The GQP may have mortally wounded his chance and will be coalescing around a con to swipe the gavel.
 
ronntaylor said:
I think most see McCarthy as unlikely to get the Speakership and are enjoying his collapse.
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It's not McCarthy's collapse, it is leadership and the elite's collapse I am enjoying. He just happens to be part of it.

There is nothing wrong with compromise. But you need to get something of value in return. McCarthy is one to give up something to make the other side happy, but getting nothing back in return.
 
This day is probably not turning out how Hakeem Jeffries envisioned. He may have saw another round of voting, but could he have imagined being nominated leader and - as part of the minority party - defeat the assumed leader of the majority party three times in a row? On the same day? With a crowd of colleagues chanting his name while the assumed leader sits uncomfortably with a shit-eating grin on his face?

I know Kevin McCarthy probably didn’t imagine “his moment” shaping up like this.

Here’s the guy he worked so hard to placate…

 
Herdfan said:
It's not McCarthy's collapse, it is leadership and the elite's collapse I am enjoying. He just happens to be part of it.

There is nothing wrong with compromise. But you need to get something of value in return. McCarthy is one to give up something to make the other side happy, but getting nothing back in return.
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Except the other side in this instance are the extremists in his own party. That’s who he’s caving too. That they still don’t want him after all of his groveling is one part hilarious and one part a sign of how bad things are.

GermanSuplex said:
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Yes but she’s also the shrewdest (a low bar perhaps). She understood that they already McCarthy over a barrel and would effectively run him. The others are too stupid to realize it. I mean it’s not like they want to govern anyway but they had a compliant leader who was so palpably desperate to be leader that they basically had a gun to his head and could’ve gotten anything they wanted out of him regardless of how destructive for the Republicans it would’ve been in the long run. I might be exaggerating the point but if I am it ain’t by a lot …
 

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