Gurman's WWDC announcement predictions.

[Colstan]

Bloomberg's Mark Gurman has released his predictions for Apple's upcoming WWDC in the latest edition of his Power On newsletter.

Altogether, the company is planning to unveil:

• the Reality headset, the first major new Apple product category in nearly a decade
• a new xrOS operating system and software development kit
• new MacBooks
• iOS 17
• iPadOS 17
• macOS 14
• a major watchOS 10 update

Concerning the Mac and near-term releases, Gurman states:

"Moving on to the Mac, Apple has several new models in the works: a 15-inch MacBook Air, an updated 13-inch MacBook Air, an entry-level 13-inch MacBook Pro, a refreshed 24-inch iMac, the first Mac Pro with in-house chips and updated high-end MacBook Pro models. All of these should go on sale either this year or in early 2024. There are also two Mac Studio follow-ups planned, but their timing is less clear.

At least some of the new laptops will be announced at WWDC, I've been told. But there's a big caveat: The models coming in June probably won't boast major new M3 chips. Instead, they'll run something in line with the current M2 processors.

New Mac models in this vein started showing up in developer test logs this past week. That includes what appears to be a larger MacBook Air. The logs show machines running chips with an eight-core CPU — split between four high-performance cores and four efficiency cores — and a 10-core graphics processor. They also include 8 gigabytes of memory.

The new machines can't arrive quickly enough: Apple suffered a more than 40% drop in Mac shipments last quarter, its steepest decline in more than 22 years." (Gurman is quoting a recent IDC report, Apple does not report shipment numbers, only revenue.)

Although Gurman doesn't specifically mention it as slated for a WWDC release, I assume the Apple Silicon Mac Pro will be announced at Apple's annual event. I can't see them putting it off until later in the year, unless something has gone catastrophically wrong. It may ship at a later date, but I presume it will be announced alongside any new MacBooks. We're approaching year three of the two-year transition, so I'd think that Apple would want to complete the switch from Intel, and WWDC would be the time to do so. Also, there had been some speculation that the Mac Studio was a short-term stopgap product, a bridge until the release of the Mac Pro, but that appears to not be the case. My suspicion is that the Mac Pro will receive the M2 Ultra first, then the Mac Studio will be released featuring those chips at a later date, so that that the Mac Pro can shine on its own. Alternatively, the Mac Studio could skip a generation, like the 24-inch iMac, and wait until M3.

WWDC runs for four days, starting on June 5th. So, what are you good folks looking forward to at WWDC? Do you have any predictions that Gurman hasn't touched on? Feel free to sound off on the fruit company's upcoming conference, if you'd like.

 

[B01L]

• Mac16,1 / ASi Mac Pro
• N3B process / A17 cores
• M3 Ultra / M3 Extreme
• WWDC 2023 / ;^p

 

[Cmaier]

IDC reports are garbage. They have no visibility whatsoever into apple’s sales channel.

 

[dada_dave]

IDC reports are garbage. They have no visibility whatsoever into apple’s sales channel.

Even if we were to take their estimates at face value people overreacted as the market withdrew by something like 30% percent. Given that Apple was consistently beating the market (again according to them) prior to this, it’s basically a market correction to the mean in a quarter without many new devices.

 

[dada_dave]

an updated 13-inch MacBook Air, an entry-level 13-inch MacBook Pro

Interesting both of these were already updated with new M2 chips - the former was even given a new design. If this is accurate (and it's Gurman so ... maybe but ... ), what are they going to do I wonder? -especially if the M3 is not coming?

Edit: maybe Apple ported the M2 over to N3B to make it more efficient/faster? I dunno.

 

[Eric]

Nothing on a new iPhone, or is that a different announcement? I'm looking to upgrade this year.

 

[Herdfan]

a refreshed 24-inch iMac,

How about a 27" or 30" iMac? Please!!!!!

 

[dada_dave]

Nothing on a new iPhone, or is that a different announcement? I'm looking to upgrade this year.

Usually in the fall - occasionally in the spring for something like the SE devices.

 

[Colstan]

Interesting both of these were already updated with new M2 chips - the former was even given a new design. If this is accurate (and it's Gurman so ... maybe but ... ), what are they going to do I wonder? -especially if the M3 is not coming?

Notice the time range that Gurman gave: "All of these should go on sale either this year or in early 2024."

The 24-inch iMac, 13-inch MacBook Air and 13-inch MacBook Pro would likely receive an M3 and be released near the end of this year. The high-end MacBook Pro would be updated with the M3 Pro/Max and the Mac Studio presumably with the M3 Max/Ultra, in early 2024. Essentially, it's the same cadence that we had with the transition from M1 to M2. The report isn't just talking about WWDC, but over the next nine months.

Much like everyone else, I like to give Gurman shit for his dodgy reporting, but when he actually reports specs and specifics, he's usually correct. He tends to use a lot of weaselly language or lazy wording, but he still has solid sources. Otherwise, we wouldn't be talking about his articles, no matter how careless he sometimes gets. We spent two weeks debating DIMMs for the Mac Pro because of his "historical features" throwaway comment, then another two weeks with GPUs, only to have him correct himself on both features, retracting those comments on Twitter. That's not being wrong, that's being careless, and he should know better, considering that he works for an ostensibly reputable news organization which should pride itself on accuracy. Honestly, I think we care more about the specifications than he does; to him it's just a story to publish.

Despite the optimism that the Mac Pro may be the first to transition to the M3 generation, I think it's likely that it will feature an M2 Ultra, assuming it arrives at WWDC. If Apple completely botched this, and it arrives later, then anything is possible, but that's a sign of a company that's become dysfunctional to the point where they can't reliably deliver a high-end Mac on time. The M2 Pro/Max were several months late, and if the Apple Silicon Mac Pro is delayed, then that's inexcusable. I can understand why there have been delays because of global events, but those excuses only go so far. So, I should hope that the Mac Pro finally arrives at WWDC, even if it doesn't ship immediately.

 

[Eric]

Usually in the fall - occasionally in the spring for something like the SE devices.

Got it, also realizing that WWDC isn't necessarily devices but more software related I'm guessing.

 

[Colstan]

How about a 27" or 30" iMac? Please!!!!!

The Mac Studio and Apple Studio Display appear to be the replacement for the high-end iMac. The 24-inch model returns the product to its historical place as an entry level consumer device. While the entry price for that combo may be higher, at least you aren't throwing away your display when your computer ages out. An Apple Studio Display could last for many generations when paired with headless Macs, whereas the entire iMac becomes worthless when one component is no longer useful, hence it may save money in the long-term.

 

[dada_dave]

Got it, also realizing that WWDC isn't necessarily devices but more software related I'm guessing.

Much of the time, but there have been WWDCs which were the exception and had a bunch of new hardware too - this is looking to be one of those times.

 

[dada_dave]

Notice the time range that Gurman gave: "All of these should go on sale either this year or in early 2024."

The 24-inch iMac, 13-inch MacBook Air and 13-inch MacBook Pro would likely receive an M3 and be released near the end of this year. The high-end MacBook Pro would be updated with the M3 Pro/Max and the Mac Studio presumably with the M3 Max/Ultra, in early 2024. Essentially, it's the same cadence that we had with the transition from M1 to M2. The report isn't just talking about WWDC, but over the next nine months.

Ah I missed that, I thought those were still WWDC predictions which made no sense given that he also said no M3 in June, my bad.

Much like everyone else, I like to give Gurman shit for his dodgy reporting, but when he actually reports specs and specifics, he's usually correct. He tends to use a lot of weaselly language or lazy wording, but he still has solid sources. Otherwise, we wouldn't be talking about his articles, no matter how careless he sometimes gets. We spent two weeks debating DIMMs for the Mac Pro because of his "historical features" throwaway comment, then another two weeks with GPUs, only to have him correct himself on both features, retracting those comments on Twitter. That's not being wrong, that's being careless, and he should know better, considering that he works for an ostensibly reputable news organization which should pride itself on accuracy. Honestly, I think we care more about the specifications than he does; to him it's just a story to publish.

Despite the optimism that the Mac Pro may be the first to transition to the M3 generation, I think it's likely that it will feature an M2 Ultra, assuming it arrives at WWDC. If Apple completely botched this, and it arrives later, then anything is possible, but that's a sign of a company that's become dysfunctional to the point where they can't reliably deliver a high-end Mac on time. The M2 Pro/Max were several months late, and if the Apple Silicon Mac Pro is delayed, then that's inexcusable. I can understand why there have been delays because of global events, but those excuses only go so far. So, I should hope that the Mac Pro finally arrives at WWDC, even if it doesn't ship immediately.

They *might* announce the Mac Pro with a ship date later in the year but that would be ... odd. They've done it before, not sure they'll do it again especially when there would already be a bunch of shipping hardware that they wouldn't want the spotlight stolen from.

 

[Colstan]

Much of the time, but there have been WWDCs which were the exception and had a bunch of new hardware too - this is looking to be one of those times.

Here's a list of all the hardware that Apple has announced at WWDC. It doesn't happen often, but it's not unheard of.

They *might* announce the Mac Pro with a ship date later in the year but that would be ... odd. They've done it before, not sure they'll do it again especially when there would already be a bunch of shipping hardware that they wouldn't want the spotlight stolen from.

All three models of the Mac Pro, released in 2006, 2013, and 2019, were all announced at WWDC. They also shipped months after their announcement, the last two Mac Pro models in December. An announcement at WWDC, then shipments at a later date would be the expected norm, anything else would be the exception.

 

[Roller]

Usually in the fall - occasionally in the spring for something like the SE devices.

We won't hear anything specific about the iPhone 15, but there may be clues in iOS 17 after developers get their hands on it.

The possibility of a major overhaul to watchOS is intriguing, since the changes to date have been incremental. There's only so much Apple can do with its small display, but I think there can be significant improvements, especially to watch faces.

I was waiting for an M1 27" iMac when the Mac Studio and Apple Studio Display were announced. I got both, and I'm happy I did. I hope Apple updates the Mac Studio with new processors, though I can't see them remaining in the product line if an M2 iMac is released. I don't expect that, though.

Apple will have to move the Mac Pro to Apple Silicon at some point soon to keep their promise. It would look bad to kill it. Even though it's a relatively niche product, it's an important one.

 

[dada_dave]

Here's a list of all the hardware that Apple has announced at WWDC. It doesn't happen often, but it's not unheard of.


All three models of the Mac Pro, released in 2006, 2013, and 2019, were all announced at WWDC. They also shipped months after their announcement, the last two Mac Pro models in December. An announcement at WWDC, then shipments at a later date would be the expected norm, anything else would be the exception.

Interesting ... though those years were they also shipping a bunch of other hardware that same WWDC including a brand new product category? I'm just thinking that recently the "one more thing" has been the exciting new Mac Pro but if the "one more thing" is a headset ... you see where I am going with this? They're going to want to highlight that. Then again maybe they'll just go for "orgasmic overload for the faithful" approach.

I will say though that if it doesn't ship for months after WWDC, then that increases the possibility of it being M3 (though the more likely would still be M2).

 

[Colstan]

I was waiting for an M1 27" iMac when the Mac Studio and Apple Studio Display were announced. I got both, and I'm happy I did. I hope Apple updates the Mac Studio with new processors, though I can't see them remaining in the product line if an M2 iMac is released. I don't expect that, though.

Exactly. I'm currently doing fine with my 21.5-inch LG UltraFine, but when the Apple Studio Display gets an update, I'd likely purchase that as my next monitor. My next Mac would either be a Mac mini with a Pro chip, or a Mac Studio, but it's nice to have the option of choosing which Mac I would like to pair with an Apple-branded monitor, and the freedom of upgrading to a new Mac without tossing out the display.

Apple will have to move the Mac Pro to Apple Silicon at some point soon to keep their promise. It would look bad to kill it. Even though it's a relatively niche product, it's an important one.

This is absolutely correct. Apple has already promised that a new Mac Pro is coming when John Ternus said "just one more product to go: ‌Mac Pro‌, that's for another day" back in March of 2022. When Apple Silicon was first announced at WWDC 2020, Tim Cook said that the transition would take "about two years". We're now on year three. Some past delays were understandable, but those excuses are over. I don't care about pandemics, war in Europe, supply chain shortages, or process difficulties. Enough excuses, Apple, finish the transition, release the Mac Pro, or admit defeat and get out of the way.

 

[Colstan]

Then again maybe they'll just go for "orgasmic overload for the faithful" approach.

I will say though that if it doesn't ship for months after WWDC, then that increases the possibility of it being M3 (though the more likely would still be M2).

Or there's a simple reason that the 15-inch MacBook Air and Apple Silicon Mac Pro weren't announced before WWDC: they weren't exciting enough to headline an event on their own. If the 15-inch is just a scaled up version with a base M2, as Gurman flatly states, then that's nothing more than an incremental product. If the Mac Pro uses an M2 Ultra, perhaps clocked slightly higher, inside of a four-year old case, then that's nothing to brag about, either. I'd wager that, if Apple announces the Apple Silicon Mac Pro at WWDC, then it'll be wedged between the operating system updates and the AR/VR headset. It's the perfect spot to bury a product that would otherwise be lampooned for being nothing more than a Mac Studio with slots.

 

[dada_dave]

Or there's a simple reason that the 15-inch MacBook Air and Apple Silicon Mac Pro weren't announced before WWDC: they weren't exciting enough to headline an event on their own. If the 15-inch is just a scaled up version with a base M2, as Gurman flatly states, then that's nothing more than an incremental product. If the Mac Pro uses an M2 Ultra, perhaps clocked slightly higher, inside of a four-year old case, then that's nothing to brag about, either. I'd wager that, if Apple announces the Apple Silicon Mac Pro at WWDC, then it'll be wedged between the operating system updates and the AR/VR headset. It's the perfect spot to bury a product that would otherwise be lampooned for being nothing more than a Mac Studio with slots.

The Mac Pro is the last of the Mac products to transition to Apple Silicon - they're going to want to mark that even if it's late. And typically they've made the big changes to the Mac pro to be a big deal. If they don't then yes they are very deeply ashamed of something having gone horribly wrong. Also the 15th inch Air will be a new product, that's maybe not a headliner but still a big deal and then of course the reality head set and the developer content. That's a pretty jam packed WWDC, almost overly filled. Though if all this does come to pass I'm sure someone somewhere ( ::ahem:: Macrumors) will still wonder out loud if the "lack of announcements" isn't further proof of Apple being doomed and Tim Cook needing to be fired. I checked the other day and that was the top forum post ... again.

 

[Colstan]

Though if all this does come to pass I'm sure someone somewhere ( ::ahem:: Macrumors) will still wonder out loud if the "lack of announcements" isn't further proof of Apple being doomed and Tim Cook needing to be fired.

Apple isn't doomed and Tim Cook doesn't need to be fired. That's hyperbole from people who just want to complain about something and Apple makes for a gigantic target.

However, if the transition to Apple Silicon isn't done by WWDC, then it would mean that Apple missed its self-imposed two-year deadline by over a year and would mark the second time that they were late with high-end Apple Silicon. The M2 Pro/Max should have been released six months earlier than it was. I gave them some slack because of global events, but that's no longer a valid excuse. If the Apple Silicon Mac Pro isn't announced by WWDC, then I think it's reasonable to question Apple's ability to release high-end Mac chips in a timely fashion. I don't think that's an unreasonable criticism and something that should concern Mac users who want Apple to compete with the PC companies from top to bottom, not just in energy efficient laptops.

If Apple can't deliver, then some folks may look elsewhere for their computing needs, including myself. I don't belong to the Apple ecosystem, I refuse to lock myself into any one vendor, which gives me a certain amount of flexibility. I adore the Mac, enjoy macOS, but if Apple can't compete, then I'll be forced to look elsewhere. I don't want to do that, but I'm not as confident as others are in Apple's ability to execute. The M1 was a nice start, the M2 was a decent update, but I'm very much a "what have you done for me lately?" customer. I'm not trying to sound pessimistic or parrot the MacRumors doomsayers, just voicing what I have personally seen from Apple, thus far. Johny Srouji and Tim Cook need to show us what they've got, and WWDC is the date to do it. Apple needs to complete the transition, no more delays, three years is enough.