Gurman's WWDC announcement predictions.

[Herdfan]

I've been very satisfied with my Mac Studio and Apple Studio Display.

I've been happy with my Studio Mac and Studio Display as well.

Which glass do you have? Standard or Nano?

The glass on my current iMac for about 15 minutes in the afternoon is horrible. Just a couple of rays of sun on it and the glare gets bad.

 

[Roller]

Which glass do you have? Standard or Nano?

The glass on my current iMac for about 15 minutes in the afternoon is horrible. Just a couple of rays of sun on it and the glare gets bad.

I got the standard glass ASD because there are no windows or other light sources behind me. I also thought images and text would be a bit crisper than on the nano display (just a supposition). No regrets at all. But when I placed my order on the day of the announcement, I didn't have the option to check them out in person, which you now do. (My monitor arrived more than a month after the Mac Studio, so I had to borrow a 4k display until it came. That made me appreciate the 5k screen even more.)

 

[Citysnaps]

Which glass do you have? Standard or Nano?

The glass on my current iMac for about 15 minutes in the afternoon is horrible. Just a couple of rays of sun on it and the glare gets bad.

I went with the standard glass. I can control outdoor light pretty well in my office/studio. And using it to edit/process photographs, I wanted a crisp display without taking a hit on sharpness/contrast that I *believed* would be the case with the nano-texture glass.

The nano option not being available at B&H at the time pretty much sealed the deal on that decision. I've had it since July of last year, and bought it for $100 off at B&H (they also pick up the 10% state sales tax if you use their store credit card) and have no regrets. The lack of an On/Off switch bugs me a little, but life goes on. I do like the three USB-C ports on the back - a big plus.

 

[Colstan]

Nothing surprising, but Ming-Chi Kuo is parroting Gurman on the M3.

Kuo: M3 Chip Still Months Away, Entering Mass Production in Second Half of 2023

Apple's next-generation M3 chip will enter mass production in the second half of 2023, according to info shared today by analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. ...

www.macrumors.com

As our favorite website points out, this aligns with the M2 Ultra finishing the series with the Mac Pro, and then the M3 making its first showing during Apple's traditional October or November event, after the annual September iPhone shindig. Kuo also states that the 15-inch MacBook Air will use a standard M2.

As I have been vocal about, I'm hoping that Apple announces the Apple Silicon Mac Pro at WWDC, even if it doesn't ship immediately. The shifty rumor peddlers have thus far been silent about such an announcement. I'd be perfectly fine with a boring, pedestrian, highly predictable release that completes the transition.

I have no clue why people decided to take the least likely theories and combine them into a homunculus of absurdity, but this is the internet, and nerds absolutely never miss an opportunity to declare every hoof print to be a zebra rather than a horse.

 

[Joelist]

I wish people would keep in mind that BECAUSE Apple had to (for global supply chain reasons) delay M2Pro for a few months that it means there is a new release cadence and that all subsequent releases will also be "late". Apple is not going to just suddenly give a super short life to an entire generation of Silicon (M2) just to keep M3 on the old schedule.
As to Apple Studio display, a month and a half ago I broke down and got one and the difference is amazing. The thing just works, looks great and yes my eyes feel less strain when using it.

 

[Roller]

There's a report at The Other Place claiming one tester has been "blown away" by Apple's forthcoming VR headset. Cue the usual responses from armchair experts who know it will fail, even though they haven't seen the product. Personally, I'll reserve judgment until the WWDC keynote.

 

[Citysnaps]

Cue the usual responses from armchair experts who know it will fail, even though they haven't seen the product.

Or know what AR is.

 

[B01L]

Or know what AR is.

ArmaLite Rifle...?

 

[Colstan]

I wish people would keep in mind that BECAUSE Apple had to (for global supply chain reasons) delay M2Pro for a few months that it means there is a new release cadence and that all subsequent releases will also be "late".

My problem isn't with Apple interrupting their product cadence because of global events, but that they didn't adapt to those disruptions. Intel, AMD, and Nvidia all released products mostly on time, on a regular cadence. Raptor Lake, Zen 4, RDNA 3, and Lovelace all arrived on schedule. The only exception is Intel Arc, and that wasn't a process problem, but a driver teething issue for a new product category. So, global events is certainly an excuse for Apple, it's just not a good one.

WWDC is where Apple needs to finish this off, then get the M3 out the door as soon as possible. The M1 and M2 have been impressive for energy efficient designs, but it's yet to be determined if they can compete in the performance desktop arena. That graph comparing the M1 Ultra to a 3090 was embarrassing, and if Apple does finally announce the Apple Silicon Mac Pro, then I hope they are more realistic about its capabilities.

I'm giving Apple heat on this because I want them to succeed. I'm not like the MacRumors crowd who would only be happy if Apple failed and then they would have no new tech from them to complain about.

 

[dada_dave]

My problem isn't with Apple interrupting their product cadence because of global events, but that they didn't adapt to those disruptions. Intel, AMD, and Nvidia all released products mostly on time, on a regular cadence. Raptor Lake, Zen 4, RDNA 3, and Lovelace all arrived on schedule. The only exception is Intel Arc, and that wasn't a process problem, but a driver teething issue for a new product category. So, global events is certainly an excuse for Apple, it's just not a good one.

WWDC is where Apple needs to finish this off, then get the M3 out the door as soon as possible. The M1 and M2 have been impressive for energy efficient designs, but it's yet to be determined if they can compete in the performance desktop arena. That graph comparing the M1 Ultra to a 3090 was embarrassing, and if Apple does finally announce the Apple Silicon Mac Pro, then I hope they are more realistic about its capabilities.

I'm giving Apple heat on this because I want them to succeed. I'm not like the MacRumors crowd who would only be happy if Apple failed and then they would have no new tech from them to complain about.

To be fair to Apple you are comparing releasing chips to releasing the entire widget and Apple was making a major product transition, not just at the chip level but major body redesigns and new new displays (which if you believe the rumors were a big part of the delay for some of the delays). That’s where being vertically integrated has its drawbacks - delays in one aspect can cascade far more easily - another example also see Intel with 14nm+++++++ where manufacturing delays meant they had difficulty delivering new chip designs. Apple can’t just release chips even if they’re ready (although TSMC manufacturing delays can also be blamed here, so even without vertical integration of your upstream suppliers are delayed and there’s no one else to go to you can take major hits), they have to have the rest of the product ready as well.

Having said that you know I also already agree with you, such excuses only go so far at this point. So I don’t know why I posted all this, early morning pedantry I guess!

 

[Colstan]

To be fair to Apple you are comparing releasing chips to releasing the entire widget and Apple was making a major product transition, not just at the chip level but major body redesigns and new new displays (which if you believe the rumors were a big part of the delay for some of the delays).

I think that Apple expected the M2 Pro/Max products to be finished in the Fall of last year, which is why the announcement with Ternus felt disjointed, because it had been recorded months earlier as part of a larger presentation. Whatever caused the delay was a last minute thing.

Concerning the Mac Pro, my hunch is that Apple is having a hard time producing a performance desktop that is economically viable. An upclocked M2 Ultra may be the best they can do at this point, which is going to disappoint a lot of folks. I'd be curious to know how many redesigns this thing has gone through.

That’s where being vertically integrated has its drawbacks - delays in one aspect can cascade far more easily - another example also see Intel with 14nm+++++++ where manufacturing delays meant they had difficulty delivering new chip designs. Apple can’t just release chips even if they’re ready (although TSMC manufacturing delays can also be blamed here, so even without vertical integration of your upstream suppliers are delayed and there’s no one else to go to you can take major hits), they have to have the rest of the product ready as well.

I get it, it's just that I hold Apple to a higher standard than the PC companies, which I expect mediocrity from. Intel's Meteor Lake isn't going to have a performance desktop part. Nvidia is skimping on VRAM and overcharging for the 4000-series GPUs. AMD's high-end RDNA 3 line didn't perform as well as the company had expected. Despite these shortcomings, at least they are shipping product on a regular schedule. I'm flummoxed when they manage to outperform Apple on timeline.

I realize that Apple can't magic products into existence, but I don't think they deserve a pass on this, not in the slightest. Tim Cook isn't a product guy, he's supposed to be the "supply chain master", and that's where Apple is stumbling.

 

[Colstan]

Uncle Gurman was on our favorite website's podcast.



I took a bullet and listened to the segments that most interested me. Here's my quick rundown of the Mac discussion:

According to Gurman, macOS 14 is "not going to be groundbreaking or significant" and will "bake in support" for features from iOS. He uses Stage Manager as an example, saying that it started development for the iPad, then also integrated into macOS. Gurman points out that minor updates to macOS use names that are geographically close to the previous release, such as El Capitan being close to Yosemite. He speculates that the next version could be named Malibu, because of its proximity to Ventura, but he is clear about saying that is entirely his own speculation and that he "hasn't heard that".

Regarding the Apple Silicon Mac Pro, the M2 Extreme was canceled "because of cost and production". Gurman thinks that the M2 Ultra is already a niche product, and it didn't make sense to dump resources into such a low volume chip that few people would be willing to pay for. Gurman says that he "still believes it's coming this year". He thinks that part of the reason for the 15-inch MacBook Air using an M2, and the M3 coming later, is because "you don't want to launch the M3 before the M2 Ultra chip coming in the Mac Pro". He also states that he doesn't think there will be another Mac Studio until the M3 generation, with the M2 Ultra destined solely for use in the next Mac Pro. Gurman reiterates that the Mac Pro was originally supposed to be an M1 product that got pushed back to the M2 generation. Regarding time frame, he said "I don't think it's coming in June".

Also, I enjoyed Gurman's "shock face" when asked about the Mac Pro.

 

[Colstan]

I could have saved myself a lot of time if I had just waited for the inevitable article.

Apple Silicon Mac Pro Reportedly Not Coming at WWDC, Mac Studio Refresh Likely Delayed Until M3

The Apple silicon Mac Pro will not be among the new hardware announcements at WWDC 2023, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman believes. Speaking on the...

www.macrumors.com

So, maybe, some day, eventually, the Apple Silicon Mac Pro will be released, but WWDC isn't likely. MacRumors helpfully states that "this is a significant delay over when the machine was originally expected to launch". I'm glad they're here to tell us these things.

 

[Roller]

I'm more confused about Apple's computer lineup/roadmap than I have been in years, both on the laptop and desktop side. Where does the new MacBook Air fit in? Will there be a 27" iMac or even an iMac Pro? When will we see the Mac Pro? Uncertainty about chips only adds to the confusion. M2 Ultra vs. M3?

I follow iPad releases less because I don't use them. But at least with iPhones, we know there'll be a new set every year, though what the pro vs the non-pro models will have doesn't become clear until close to the announcements.

 

[Colstan]

I'm more confused about Apple's computer lineup/roadmap than I have been in years, both on the laptop and desktop side. Where does the new MacBook Air fit in? Will there be a 27" iMac or even an iMac Pro? When will we see the Mac Pro? Uncertainty about chips only adds to the confusion. M2 Ultra vs. M3?

This is where Apple's secrecy gets them into trouble. They're clearly having some sort of issues releasing an entire lineup of Macs, from the Air to the Mac Pro, and not giving customers any indication about the future. That's fine for "surprise and delight" during their presentations, but not for customers who are making a long-term purchases. As 9to5Mac points out, it's been over 400 days since Ternus said that the Mac Pro was "for another day".

It's been over 400 days since Apple SVP John Ternus said 'Mac Pro' is 'for another day'

Turns out John Ternus wasn’t kidding when he said “that leaves just one more product to go: Mac Pro, but...

9to5mac.com

If the Mac Pro isn't announced at WWDC, then something has gone wrong with the transition, and Apple won't be able to blame Intel this time.

 

[dada_dave]

Gurman reiterates that the Mac Pro was originally supposed to be an M1 product that got pushed back to the M2 generation.

Originally? Like maybe before any chips were designed because it wasn’t once the M1 Max was laid out. Hector proved that chip was never meant for anything other than the Ultra and if the Ultra is all they’re going to use in the Pro anyway they could’ve released it in the M1 timeframe. So basically a lot of stuff he says is wrong or very confused.

I'm more confused about Apple's computer lineup/roadmap than I have been in years, both on the laptop and desktop side. Where does the new MacBook Air fit in? Will there be a 27" iMac or even an iMac Pro? When will we see the Mac Pro? Uncertainty about chips only adds to the confusion. M2 Ultra vs. M3?

I follow iPad releases less because I don't use them. But at least with iPhones, we know there'll be a new set every year, though what the pro vs the non-pro models will have doesn't become clear until close to the announcements.

Part of the issue is people like Gurman who muddy the waters if you pay attention too much to rumors. As @Colstan said this is where Apple’s secrecy gets them into trouble. Speculation fills the void and becomes the roadmap which creates both false hopes and false despair (with often the former becoming the latter).

 

[Colstan]

Originally? Like maybe before any chips were designed because it wasn’t once the M1 Max was laid out. Hector proved that chip was never meant for anything other than the Ultra and if the Ultra is all they’re going to use in the Pro anyway they could’ve released it in the M1 timeframe. So basically a lot of stuff he says is wrong or very confused.

That was Gurman's statement. I know that doesn't match up with the technical realities. In his defense, he first reported on such a chip long before Apple Silicon was shipped. It may have been that Apple planned to release an M1 variant that was destined for the Mac Pro, but it got axed early on. Also, we tend to assume that Gurman's sources are technical in nature, whether that be an engineer, designer, someone with test equipment, or in the supply chain. It's also possible that his sources are on the business side of the equation, hence the overall picture looks solid from high above, but falls apart in the details. The "Jade 4C-Die" rumor for the M1 "Extreme" made sense, if it was something in planning, but never reached implementation.

Much like everyone else, I like to give Gurman a hard time for his reporting, not just for his inaccuracies, but because it is fun. However, my problem with Gurman is that he has a difficult time separating his opinions from his reporting. That's not being wrong, that's being sloppy. When we examine his record with specs, such as the number of CPU/GPU/NPU cores, RAM configurations, and the like, he's typically bang on. He was also correct about Ventura's new System Settings, and nobody else had anything on macOS, at that time. So, I think he has solid sources, it's his presentation that makes me pull my hair out.

Speculation fills the void and becomes the roadmap which creates both false hopes and false despair (with often the former becoming the latter).

Or users simply give up and buy from a competitor.

Speaking for my own entirely selfish reasons, I would typically enjoy the rumormongering and resultant banter, but I need to make a new computer purchase within the next 6-9 months. If Apple can't provide me with what I need, in this case performance desktop computers, then I will be forced to look elsewhere. I very much don't want to do that, because after 18 years of only using the Mac, I don't want to have to grovel at the Microsoft alter of mediocrity. Windows is the poster child for a participation trophy, but I may have no choice.

If I do have to leave the Apple enclave, then I won't gnash my teeth, ruffle my cape, proclaim that Apple is Doomed™ and that Tim Cook needs to be fired, while getting a round of applause from the fabulous forum folks over at MacRumors. I'll simply pick and choose my PC parts, post the specs for feedback from my friends here, and get on with my labors. I don't want to have to do that, which is why I've been unusually cranky, as of late.

 

[Citysnaps]

My problem isn't with Apple interrupting their product cadence because of global events, but that they didn't adapt to those disruptions. Intel, AMD, and Nvidia all released products mostly on time, on a regular cadence. Raptor Lake, Zen 4, RDNA 3, and Lovelace all arrived on schedule. The only exception is Intel Arc, and that wasn't a process problem, but a driver teething issue for a new product category. So, global events is certainly an excuse for Apple, it's just not a good one.

WWDC is where Apple needs to finish this off, then get the M3 out the door as soon as possible. The M1 and M2 have been impressive for energy efficient designs, but it's yet to be determined if they can compete in the performance desktop arena. That graph comparing the M1 Ultra to a 3090 was embarrassing, and if Apple does finally announce the Apple Silicon Mac Pro, then I hope they are more realistic about its capabilities.

I'm giving Apple heat on this because I want them to succeed. I'm not like the MacRumors crowd who would only be happy if Apple failed and then they would have no new tech from them to complain about.

I suspect Apple's upcoming AR device (still betting on glasses) may also have been a contributor. Both in internal resources, and *perhaps* fab capacity/availability.

 

[Colstan]

I suspect Apple's upcoming AR device (still betting on glasses) may also have been a contributor. Both in internal resources, and *perhaps* fab capacity/availability.

That's certainly possible, but there does seem to be something uniquely weird going on with the Mac Pro, and high-end Apple Silicon in general. Apple's presentation graph showing the M1 Ultra on the same footing as an RTX 3090 is the bugbear that continues to vex me, considering that in reality the Ultra barely competes with an entry level 3060. I'm not asking for Apple to do a moon shot and catch the 4090, just something around the 4070 Ti. Apple has done amazing work with mobile, laptops, and compact desktops, but they've come up short in reaching the high-end.

I realize that grousing about it won't get me anywhere, I appreciate you nice folks listening to my bitching, my intention isn't to clog my favorite forum with negativity. It simply means that I may have some uncomfortable choices to make in the coming months, and will have to plan accordingly.

 

[Citysnaps]

That's certainly possible, but there does seem to be something uniquely weird going on with the Mac Pro, and high-end Apple Silicon in general. Apple's presentation graph showing the M1 Ultra on the same footing as an RTX 3090 is the bugbear that continues to vex me, considering that in reality the Ultra barely competes with an entry level 3060. I'm not asking for Apple to do a moon shot and catch the 4090, just something around the 4070 Ti. Apple has done amazing work with mobile, laptops, and compact desktops, but they've come up short in reaching the high-end.

I realize that grousing about it won't get me anywhere, I appreciate you nice folks listening to my bitching, my intention isn't to clog my favorite forum with negativity. It simply means that I may have some uncomfortable choices to make in the coming months, and will have to plan accordingly.

Yeah... Though I don't have a personal need for one, I would also love to see the next MacPro released - with a significant boost in performance (and slots).

So much has happened in the last three years - including the pandemic. Apple has done (and been managed) well by not having massive layoffs like so many other large tech companies.

I think we're seeing a combination of factors in play at once. As large as Apple is, they don't have infinite resources. Have a feeling a successful and timely AR rollout has been their priority. Just a guess...