Gurman's WWDC announcement predictions.

[Cmaier]

So, apparently @dada_dave and I have at least one thing in common: a 2-hour sleep cycle. In honor of my fellow insomniacs, I went back and reread Dave's magnum opus, his "Treatise and Testament on the Falsehoods, Inaccuracies, Underhandedness, and Felonious Nature of the Most Dishonorable Markus Aurelius Gurmanus".

Giving this extensive anthology a "like" was the only concrete contribution that @Cmaier has made to this thread. After combing through all six volumes, I found these common themes:

1. Gurman's claim that the Mac Studio won't be updated until the M3 generation doesn't fit Apple's past release pattern.
2. Device strings in the Find My database correlate with multiple upcoming desktop models.
3. The Mac Pro may be destined for the N3 process, not simply an M2 Ultra.
4. Apple would want to make a splash with the Mac Pro, perhaps with ray tracing support.

Dave's voluminous explanations and logical thinking were compelling, but those are the main points that he addressed.

I don't think @Cmaier would be so quiet if his sources matched what is publicly available, whether that be Gurman, Kuo, or "Amethyst" over at the MacRumors forum. If Gurman was 100% correct, then there's no good reason for @Cmaier to stay silent on this, he could just comment on it like us plebeians. So, even though @Cmaier hasn't told us anything, by not saying anything, he has told us something, and that likely signals that Gurman's product roadmap and timeline are incorrect.

I don't know where Gurman went sideways. Perhaps the Mac Studio is getting the M2 Max/Ultra update. Perhaps the Mac Pro will be the first M3 device, utilizing an M3 Extreme, as @B01L has been advocating. Perhaps there's some form of ray tracing hardware support involved. Or perhaps Gurman's roadmap is hogwash and the lickspittle from the likes of Max Tech is pushing that narrative, and we're all buying into it, as a result of the vacuum emanating from Cupertino.

Regardless, it looks like the second half of this year should be eventful, with more unique and interesting Macs than Gurman is claiming.

On a personal note, it also means that I'm really glad that I'm waiting before making a purchase. (@Cmaier is the puppet master behind the curtain confirmed!)

The kremlinology approach to interpreting my posts is nice. I feel like I’m watching the start of a new qanon-like movement.

 

[Yoused]

As long as you do not change to @Qmaier.

 

[dada_dave]

The kremlinology approach to interpreting my posts is nice. I feel like I’m watching the start of a new qanon-like movement.

Our own Jack Teixeira

 

[Colstan]

I’m pretty sure clarity won’t be achieved until later in the year.

You know you could have just said that, instead of silently watching me go through multiple posts of self-flagellation over my dilemma, right?

 

[Cmaier]

You know you could have just said that, instead of silently watching me go through multiple posts of self-flagellation over my dilemma, right?

What fun would that be?

 

[Colstan]

What fun would that be?

Even before I sat down at my computer desk, somehow, I knew that's exactly how you'd respond, word for word.

After signing up to be a moderator here, you'd think that @Eric would be a taskmaster or slavedriver. In fact, he's patient, understanding, never cryptic, and an absolute delight to work for, the best boss I've ever had. No, it's middle management in the tech division that's a pain in the ass, as is tradition. The only benefits are the free strawberry donuts in the staff lounge.

 

[Cmaier]

Even before I sat down at my computer desk, somehow, I knew that's exactly how you'd respond, word for word.

After signing up to be a moderator here, you'd think that @Eric would be a taskmaster or slavedriver. In fact, he's patient, understanding, never cryptic, and an absolute delight to work for, the best boss I've ever had. No, it's middle management in the tech division that's a pain in the ass, as is tradition. The only benefits are the free strawberry donuts in the staff lounge.

I’m not middle management. I’m just a dude with elevated access privileges.

Anyway, forget about Mac. Get excited for them goggles.

 

[B01L]

Anyway, forget about Mac. Get excited for them goggles.

Really hope that is not a hint towards no news on the ASi Mac Pro front at WWDC 2023...

As for "them goggles", I am hoping for something along the lines of the units in Snow Crash... ;^p

 

[Cmaier]

Really hope that is not a hint towards no news on the ASi Mac Pro front at WWDC 2023...

As for "them goggles", I am hoping for something along the lines of the units in Snow Crash... ;^p

I’m not hinting at nuthin. All I’m saying is that I already have a fine Mac (3 M-series in my house and a couple of old Intel’s still cranking), so I’m looking forward to new eyewear.

 

[Joelist]

Eh. I think updates to Mac Studio with both M2Max and M2Ultra are a given since they are more or less just putting the new SOCs into existing structure and updating some of the ports.

Now the VR? Will it be a headset or.....an implant! You buy a box with two tiny blister packs (the iJect) and the instructions tell you to empty them into your eyes (one each). Then you wait for the new biologically powered WiFi 7 to start and you're off!

 

[Cmaier]

Hmm. https://www.eetimes.com/tsmcs-3-nm-push-faces-tool-struggles/

 

[Citysnaps]

Get excited for them goggles.

Though this may come back to bite me, I'm still predicting glasses.

 

[B01L]

Hmm. https://www.eetimes.com/tsmcs-3-nm-push-faces-tool-struggles/

ASi Mac Pro should be low-volume high-margin, so perfect to "clear the pipe" for further M3-family/A17 production...?

One would think the wafer output between end of December 2022 and now should be enough to cover initial ASi Mac Pro demand...?

 

[dada_dave]

Hmm. https://www.eetimes.com/tsmcs-3-nm-push-faces-tool-struggles/

In the second half of 2023, TSMC will ramp Apple’s A17 and M3 processors at the N3 node

I may be mistaken but I remember being told that due to the high volume required on sale day that wafer manufacturing for the iPhone processors had to start February/March for an October launch. Of course they say ramp up so that can still fit but even so, I was given to believe that they had to start manufacturing chips in volume really early.

 

[B01L]

I may be mistaken but I remember being told that due to the high volume required on sale day that wafer manufacturing for the iPhone processors had to start February/March for an October launch. Of course they say ramp up so that can still fit but even so, I was given to believe that they had to start manufacturing chips in volume really early.

Maybe that was when all the iPhones used the same SoC, but now we have only the high-end models using the more advanced SoC...?

 

[Colstan]

Anyway, forget about Mac.

Macs are the only Apple products that I own, so I will become obsolete in this forum, if I stop using one.

so I’m looking forward to new eyewear.

I already wear glasses, making such a thing too awkward for me to wear. I also have hyperacusis in my left ear, and if the goggles include audio functionality, it will cause me significant physical pain, having a speaker so close to my skull. So, I won't be able to wear them, no matter how compelling they may be.

That being said, I hope that they are a successful product for Apple, and that you and the folks who desire them find enjoyment while using them.

ASi Mac Pro should be low-volume high-margin, so perfect to "clear the pipe" for further M3-family/A17 production...?

This is just my opinion, but I think we tend to over estimate the Mac Pro as a "halo product". Apple's prestige product is the iPhone, and they market the other doodads to the users of their flagship anchor device. I think there's a good chance that Apple will scrounge up every single N3 wafer for the A17 before they spare a single die for their other products, excluding the new Apple eyeshades, of course.

I want new Macs as much as everyone else here (except @Cmaier, by his own admission). However, I'm still of the opinion that the most interesting Mac models won't be announced until October or November. I don't personally like that, but I think Apple's headgear will suck up all of the attention from the press and Apple itself. The Mac Pro is an iteration of an established lineage, the goggles are the crowning of an all new dynasty.

 

[dada_dave]

Maybe that was when all the iPhones used the same SoC, but now we have only the high-end models using the more advanced SoC...?

Hmmm maybe?

 

[Yoused]

I watched a lengthy yt video of a guy talking to a bunch of investors in which he was discussing large vectors on the world stage. One of the things he spoke about was the shuttering of Azovstal, the large steel mill at Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast. Apparently, steel mills do some degree of gas separation and send their trace gasses to labs that do more complete separations. One of those gasses, xenon, is used in the EUV lasers that burn wafers.

This person's observation was that Azovstal was, laterally, one of the world's significant sources of xenon, meaning that its closure will have a real impact on chip production. Which is probably somewhat true. Except that xenon is the excited gas that resides in the laser tube and is not actually consumed by the process. There may be an issue arising on the horizon, as fabs seek equipment for N2 and beyond, but, for now, it is probably not as big a thing as te guy was making of it.

 

[dada_dave]

I watched a lengthy yt video of a guy talking to a bunch of investors in which he was discussing large vectors on the world stage. One of the things he spoke about was the shuttering of Azovstal, the large steel mill at Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast. Apparently, steel mills do some degree of gas separation and send their trace gasses to labs that do more complete separations. One of those gasses, xenon, is used in the EUV lasers that burn wafers.

This person's observation was that Azovstal was, laterally, one of the world's significant sources of xenon, meaning that its closure will have a real impact on chip production. Which is probably somewhat true. Except that xenon is the excited gas that resides in the laser tube and is not actually consumed by the process. There may be an issue arising on the horizon, as fabs seek equipment for N2 and beyond, but, for now, it is probably not as big a thing as te guy was making of it.

I’d vaguely heard this as well.

 

[Colstan]

Story from last year. Ukraine supplies 90% of United States semiconductor grade neon. Russia supplied 35% of palladium.

Ukraine supplies 90% of U.S. semiconductor-grade neon (and what it means to chip supply chain)

Ukraine supplies more than 90% of the US’s semiconductor-grade neon, a gas integral to the lasers used in the chip-making process,. Now what?

venturebeat.com