Oh absolutely on the sometimes frustrating vacillations from western governments, but my point here was that vacillation is in the context of national defense and policy rather than … whatever SpaceX is doing here. Again not saying I have thought some decisions made by governments were good or well reasoned but it is their place to make such decisions. The reason I posted here instead of the Russia-Ukraine thread was because of how silly the stated SpaceX rationales were in the context. It would be akin to General Atomics selling Ukraine Reapers for $1 but then geofencing them after the fact to not fly into Crimea because they, a defense contractor, don’t want to make it look like they are militarizing the sky in a country at war. Don’t get me wrong I get Starlink is dual-use, but it is dual-use as even they acknowledge.Well it’s not exactly the US government and our allies has been devoid of vacillating behavior and indecision. First it was whether or not to provide the MIGs from Poland- which was denied (but supposedly may have actually been broken up into parts and reassembled in Ukraine). For the longest it was a no on the Patriot batteries, only to provided once things got bad enough. Then the whole ridiculous tank fiasco. For the longest time we heard no to ATACMS due to their range, only for the GLSDM (to be provided (ground launched small diameter bomb, double the range of the GMLRS used in HIMARS, but less than ATACMS and to be fair a fraction of the price).
I’m quite confident fighter jets will be approved once the necessary training is finished and infrastructure established. Especially considering Congress approved F-16 training in July 2022 and there were reported talks of sending A-10’s which the Ukrainians wisely declined (and here the Pentagon probably thought they could finally rid themselves of the A-10, which they’ve been trying to do for decades). It’s almost silly to think this will not be happening.
Considering Starlink is owned by SpaceX I suppose their could also be concerns about cyberattacks related to their spacecraft. That would not be good for partners in commercial launches, let alone if they’re launching humans. I don’t think Putin would have any problem killing some astronauts. Especially considering their anti-satellite missile against a defunct soviet satellite in nearly the same orbit as the ISS.
I would also think given the nature of SpaceX’s business, the government probably has restrictions on who they can provide services to and for what reasons. Maybe they’re not actually supposed to sell satellite service to be use with offensive weapons systems and the bureaucracy of the government has yet to approve it.
Or maybe they’re afraid about other countries using their technology in warfare? Or being held responsible by the public somehow if a Ukrainian drone malfunctions and hits a bunch of children? What if the malfunction was caused by a Starlink problem? .
It was reported in March of 2022 that Starlink was being used to operate Ukranian drones- at the very least to send data from drone teams to artillery teams (perhaps not communicating directly with the drone, but as an intermediary.
There has to be more to the story than Elon loving Putin or whatever I’m sure the media will likely report this as. If he was so against this war I doubt he would have given Ukraine satellites and service in the first place. It would have been very easy for them to abstain citing threats to non-military users and infrastructure.
As for the actual underlying reason why SpaceX did this? No idea. Could be anything you wrote or could be anything from a range of Elon woke up one morning and peevishly dictated “it shall be thus!” (more likely) to a decision made in concert with the USG based on actual strategic considerations of escalation management or some other national defense policy (almost zero chance).
Whatever the cause, to me, it’s just another example of a Musk-led company thrashing around while previously expressing such confidence that they had any idea of what they were doing.