Russia-Ukraine

[lizkat]

I heard Russia trolled Western media by asking them to provide all Russia's invasion dates for the next year so that their diplomats can plan their vacations.

There's a lot of trolling going on, yeah. Russia sees the US as weakened by our relative tolerance of open disagreement in the body politic, and trolls us to the end of exacerbating our status as "a house divided". Some of the trolling provides laugh lines for all though, as a way of doing an occasional reset -- likely just to keep the Russian trolling from becoming too provocative to escape notice served at levels outside social media.

What Russia doesn't get though is that beyond our disagreements, people living in the USA mostly treasure our rights to disagree... even if we don't think the other guy should get the last word in any argument or for that matter in any wrangle over pending legislation.

On Ukraine, I think guys like JD Vance have completely lost the thread. He is dismissive about Ukraine as even any kind of American concern in his campaign speeches, meant to appeal to the pro-Trump crowd out in the heartland. Well it's likely true that most Americans are focused on pocketbook and other domestic issues, but Vance is minimizing significance of where a lot of ordinary Americans in his piece of the USA came from. They're not "from" Poland or Ukraine or Romania or elsewhere in eastern Europe any more, but a lot of their family is or was, and the ones living in the USA still think foreign affairs matter, maybe especially where the former USSR is concerned.

Anyone who ever slept with passport under pillow or whose family fled without papers doesn't forget that, or why it was the case, even if they are like the rest of us and can laugh at some of Russia's current laugh-line trolling about Ukraine.

 

[yaxomoxay]

It seems that Biden accepted a summit with Putin. Very dangerous diplomatic move, but probably one that has to be done in hope of stopping the conflict, so
I must commend Biden for trying this even if it could potentially make things worse.

 

[lizkat]

Meanwhile Putin continues to caution the west not to make trouble in eastern Ukraine, even as there are reports that roadside web cameras in Belarus have stopped refreshing images of traffic.

​

 

[Eric]

It seems that Biden accepted a summit with Putin. Very dangerous diplomatic move, but probably one that has to be done in hope of stopping the conflict, so
I must commend Biden for trying this even if it could potentially make things worse.

It sounds like there may be concerns that Putin may have ambitions beyond Ukraine. He's a scary guy.

 

[yaxomoxay]

It sounds like there may be concerns that Putin may have ambitions beyond Ukraine. He's a scary guy.

I am pretty sure he does, luckily it will be difficult for him to expand too much.
However, I can see him creating a federation of nations.

 

[Zoidberg]

I heard Russia trolled Western media by asking them to provide all Russia's invasion dates for the next year so that their diplomats can plan their vacations.

See, the thing is that this falls under the preparedness paradox, a self-defeating prophecy:

If you successfully prepare for an event so as to avoid it (whether it's a pandemic or in this case an invasion) by taking preventative measures, in retrospect it will appear that it was all blown out of proportion because nothing happened.

So yes, Russian troll farms spread that kind of jokes and memes to sap the West (as they do). For all we know, Russia did plan to invade last Tuesday, but the West made public enough details on the invasion plans to show Putin that they were privy to the detailed plan –which would mean a less effective offensive for Putin, because the element of surprise was lost– and thus he decided to wait. It's not a big win, but it bought Ukraine another week to prepare, which given what's coming is a lot.

Remember, the public only gets to see a tiny fraction of the information that Western leaders obtain from their IC. They are not fools, and they obviously now work on the assumption that Russia plans on invading no matter what, so they are gaining as much time as possible to prepare their response. If you follow the right people on Twitter, you can see a glimpse of what goes on behind the press announcements, like how they have sent mobile AA weapons to military bases very close to Ukraine's Western border (the only safe border, since Russia now has them surrounded from the South, East and North) or that Canada has kept sending them weapons. There are also videos of Russia moving more and more serious artillery closer to the border in the last 24h.

 

[Zoidberg]

There's a part of me that still thinks this is all going to blow over like the threat of war with Iran did...but...we'll see.

This is how far Putin has drawn units from to place them around Ukraine. Note that it doesn't show the ships that have been placed along the coast, and that this graph is a week old. Also, I believe it doesn't show the Wagner group mercenaries that are likely to be the ones executing the false flag operations, and that have been confirmed to be in the area.

As for the imminence that so annoys you, see my previous post. Whether the actual invasion is imminent or not is irrelevant. That they can invade (as in, that they have the capacity to do it) imminently is what matters, because as long as those troops are there, there is a threat.

 

[SuperMatt]

Ukraine has a population of 40 million. Despite claims to the contrary, it is a democracy with a very popular president (he got 73% of the vote… imagine that in America).

If an authoritarian country can just waltz in and take over a democratic one by force, that sets a very dangerous precedent. I bet Taiwan is feeling very nervous right now. Even if NATO doesn’t attack Russia in response, the sanctions need to be extreme, as in full trade embargo, freeze all foreign assets, block all borders extreme. They should cut Russia off from the rest of the world completely.

 

[Huntn]

It sounds like there may be concerns that Putin may have ambitions beyond Ukraine. He's a scary guy.

I am pretty sure he does, luckily it will be difficult for him to expand too much.
However, I can see him creating a federation of nations.

As heard on NPR, he’s trying to rebuild the USSR.

 

[Thomas Veil]

It sounds like there may be concerns that Putin may have ambitions beyond Ukraine. He's a scary guy.

As heard on NPR, he’s trying to rebuild the USSR.

It goes beyond even that. He wants to be the world's #1 superpower.

To that end, it goes way farther than just territorial gains. Look at how long he's had Russian trolls appealing to the worst of us, stoking racism, ignorance and hate among the most vile, illogical and resentful people in the US. We tend to act as if that started with Trump but I think it goes back at least to the tea party's resentment of Obama. Divide and conquer. He can't physically defeat a country that is more powerful than his and an ocean away, but he can get us to defeat ourselves. And so far it's working.

He's the closest thing we've got to a fucking Bond villain.

 

[yaxomoxay]

As heard on NPR, he’s trying to rebuild the USSR.

While I don’t disagree, in the world of nuclear reality, I don’t think it can be done thru military means.

 

[Huntn]

While I don’t disagree, in the world of nuclear reality, I don’t think it can be done thru military means.

I don’t know about that. Start regional wars and hope no one pushes the nuclear button, cause who in their right mind would do that? until someone pushes it. Which for Putin means business as usual until it all goes to shit by means of some unexpected calculation.

 

[yaxomoxay]

I don’t know about that. Start regional wars and hope no one pushes the nuclear button, cause who in their right mind would do that? until someone pushes it. Which for Putin means business as usual until it all goes to shit by means of some unexpected calculation.

It will be very difficult for Putin to push into more countries IMO. Lots will depend on China too.

One thing that is clear is that the west/NATO better get to the drawing board and prepare a new preventive strategy.

 

[SuperMatt]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/21/russia-ukraine-updates/#link-XRK54ZUJL5A6HCUUZO3BBGKMPY

Putin told the meeting the West had offered no concessions to Russia in its key demands for a bar on Ukraine or other Eastern European countries joining NATO.
He said the Russian Security Council would examine whether to recognize the independence of two Moscow-backed breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, a move that would signal an end to a seven-year peace deal known as the Minsk agreement.
Russia has accused Ukraine of intensifying attacks on the regions in recent days, without producing evidence, and Putin on Friday accused Kyiv of committing “genocide” there. Ukraine officials said Monday that Russia was manufacturing disinformation that fighting was going on.
Putin said it was clear that Ukraine had no intention of implementing the terms of the 2015 Minsk agreement that was designed to return the regions to Ukrainian control.

 

[Ulenspiegel]

He is, but eventually will succeed only partially.

Baltic states out (NATO and EU members, though the Russian "minority" population is enormous).
Georgia out (because of Abkhazia and South Ossetia + is officially a NATO "aspirant", though since 2011).
Ukraine (partially - up to this moment).

 

[Scepticalscribe]

From what I can see, Russia is contemplating formally recognising the "autonomous regions" of Luhansk and Donetsk.

And - right on cue - (according to RT), separatists in those regions have "made an urgent appeal" to Russia.

Reminds me of similar "appeals" from the Sudetenland........

 

[Scepticalscribe]

He is, but eventually will succeed only partially.

Baltic states out (NATO and EU members, though the Russian "minority" population is enormous).
Georgia out (because of Abkhazia and South Ossetia + is officially a NATO "aspirant", though since 2011).
Ukraine (partially - up to this moment).

Agreed.

The Baltic states are members of both the EU and NATO, and have - and enjoy - far stronger protection under international law, as a consequence, than does Ukraine.

Re their Russian populations, in Lithuania, the Russian population (which is pretty well assimilated, enjoys full citizenship rights, and is not alienated from, or antagonistic to, the Lithuanian state) was around 20% of the population in the mid 1990s; at the time, their (Lithuania's) historic grievance was as much with Poland as with Russia, and the Lithuanian state went to considerable pains to seek to integrate, include and assimilate, their Russian minority, - who welcomed this, and stressed that their ultimate loyalty was to the Lithuanian state which respected their Russian heritage - (and which, granted, wasn't as large as the destabilising percentages of possibly antagonised Russians found in the remaining two Baltic states. Lithuania's Russians also had the benefit of sane, prudent and intelligent political leaders).

Latvia was different; there, Russian numbers were closer to - and possibly exceeded - around 40%, and they were quite antagonistic to the proposed (western leaning) direction taken by the Latvian state, which, in turn, expressed itself in strongly nationalistic terms.

And, in Estonia, - which had a deeply disaffected Russian population (again, not far off 40%), what was seen as Russian influence - past or present - was passionately loathed.

These citizenship issues (both Latvia and Estonia had passed citizenship laws deemed challenging by their large Russian minorities - including stiff language tests - the amendment of which constituted conditions for their eventual entry to the EU), were largely resolved with EU entry, but the situation in Ukraine may well put pressure on the political cultures of these countries (by asking questions of the ultimate loyalties of those with Russian cultural - and actual - heritage).

Actually, the Russians were (and are) detested right across the Baltic states, deeply and profoundly loathed; no "heart'n'minds" operation - no matter the "fake news", control of media, bribery, corruption, or sheer military might, will ever persuade the people of the Baltic states that any form of Russian rule is acceptable.

Elsewhere, in the Caucasus, Georgia is - politically - more or less permanently crippled, paralysed, or hamstrung, unless and until, they can accept (which, at the moment, would amount to political suicide) that neither Abkhazia nor South Ossetia wish to return to Georgian rule; (whether they - these breakaway regions - desire Russian overlordship is a separate matter entirely).

For what it is worth, I still see the (eventual) outcome as a divided Ukraine, but now, increasingly, believe that the Russians will attempt to occupy Kyiv, and incorporate it into their "sphere of influence", the putative capital of an eventual east Ukraine.

However, I cannot envisage any situation where Russia would be able to hold west Ukraine; any attempt to do so will be fiercely contested, and the Russians will take - or can expect to take - catastrophic casualties.

 

[Citysnaps]

I've been wondering what trump would have given in/up to Putin if he were still president.

Thank god he isn't.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

I've been wondering what trump would have given in/up to Putin if he were still president.

Thank god he isn't.

My brother asked me the same question last night on the phone when we discussed this matter; he also speculated whether the Covid crisis (along with the fact that Mr Trump has been succeeded by Mr Biden in office) may have served to disrupt any possible proposed, or planned, time-table, for "action" on Ukraine, on the part of Mr Putin.

 

[Citysnaps]

My brother asked me the same question last night on the phone when we discussed this matter; he also speculated whether the Covid crisis (along with the fact that Mr Trump has been succeeded by Mr Biden in office) may have served to disrupt any possible proposed, or planned, time-table, for "action" on Ukraine, on the part of Mr Putin.

I wouldn't be surprised.