Russia-Ukraine

Unfortunate that it didn't work, would've been nice to see Putin take a direct hit.

Russia Says It Foiled Kremlin Drone Attack Aimed At Putin​

  • Kremlin threatens unspecified ‘retaliatory measures’
  • Ukraine says it has ‘no information’ about alleged attacks
 
Unfortunate that it didn't work, would've been nice to see Putin take a direct hit.

Russia Says It Foiled Kremlin Drone Attack Aimed At Putin​

  • Kremlin threatens unspecified ‘retaliatory measures’
  • Ukraine says it has ‘no information’ about alleged attacks

Just spitballing here... But it kind of smells like it could be a false flag operation to justify an "unspecified retaliatory measure." A pretense for going after Zelensky?
 
Just spitballing here... But it kind of smells like it could be a false flag operation to justify an "unspecified retaliatory measure."
That seems more plausible TBH, I was just hopeful they got close to nailing Putin lol.
 
Just spitballing here... But it kind of smells like it could be a false flag operation to justify an "unspecified retaliatory measure." A pretense for going after Zelensky?
Certainly possible though I don’t know that they would need one since they reportedly tried to kill Zelenskyy multiple times at the beginning of the war.
 
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Don't think I'm following the logic of that tweet.
In other words if it it were a false flag they’d stage it where Russians, but not important ones, might get killed. That they, the leaders, can’t fully protect the skies above themselves is merely humiliating.
 
In other words if it it were a false flag they’d stage it where Russians, but not important ones, might get killed. That they, the leaders, can’t fully protect the skies above themselves is merely humiliating.

Eh... I don't think that's necessarily true. A false flag would only need to be orchestrated having a couple of lightly armed Russian drones masquerading as Ukrainian directed to crash in or near the Kremlin, and a false story to claim it was an attack on Putin and Kremlin infrastructure. That could be enough reason for Putin to escalate in Ukraine - *perhaps* all the way up to even responding with a low yield tactical nuke (perhaps in the Black Sea, as a warning).

Merely humiliating? That the Ukrainians were able to get drones over to and crash within the Kremlin walls is extraordinarily humiliating, IMO. Especially considering the distance, roughly 520 miles from the Ukraine border, and the flight time, somewhere between 3 and 8 hours, depending on drone speed,

That's a loooong time to have one's sovereign airspace violated, especially considering the trajectory of the drones heading towards Russia's capitol and where the leadership resides. I can't think of anything more humiliating than that.
 
Eh... I don't think that's necessarily true. A false flag would only need to be orchestrated having a couple of lightly armed Russian drones masquerading as Ukrainian directed to crash in or near the Kremlin, and a false story to claim it was an attack on Putin and Kremlin infrastructure. That could be enough reason for Putin to escalate in Ukraine - *perhaps* all the way up to even responding with a low yield tactical nuke (perhaps in the Black Sea, as a warning).

Merely humiliating? That the Ukrainians were able to get drones over to and crash within the Kremlin walls is extraordinarily humiliating, IMO. Especially considering the distance, roughly 520 miles from the Ukraine border, and the flight time, somewhere between 3 and 8 hours, depending on drone speed,

That's a loooong time to have one's sovereign airspace violated, especially considering the trajectory of the drones heading towards Russia's capitol and where the leadership resides. I can't think of anything more humiliating than that.
The “merely” in my statement was in context of nothing else happened but the humiliation rather than a comment on the degree of the humiliation. The logic of the post is that the Kremlin doesn’t care about Russians being killed but it does care about looking weak. If it were a false flag to get the Russian people to want to escalate they’d stage it where there was big danger to Russian citizens and if they wanted a nuclear provocation (and there’s nowhere else to escalate to at this point) then it would be a nuclear false flag. They would not simply make themselves look incompetent and weak with a drone attack that made it to the Kremlin - that’s the point of what that journalist was saying.

Edit: btw I should add that personally I am not convinced either way, I’m explaining the logic behind the post which has merit.
 
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They would not simply make themselves look incompetent and weak with a drone attack that made it to the Kremlin - that’s the point of what that journalist was saying.

Still disagreeing with him on that.
 
Just spitballing here... But it kind of smells like it could be a false flag operation to justify an "unspecified retaliatory measure." A pretense for going after Zelensky?

I don’t think they need a pretense. At the beginning of the war there were reportedly multiple attempts to capture or kill Zelensky and allegedly had a bounty to assassinate him.

I’m not sure what to make of this. I’m not sure Ukraine would be be using a small drone to try to assassinate Putin in a fortress. Also, there would be a massive risk to Ukraine’s global image could be significantly damaged if the drone accidentally killed innocent civilians. Could it potentially be an attack to instill fear/discontent/a sense of losing the war in Russians- i suppose... But I think the more likely scenario, if not the Kremlin, would be Russian separatists seizing an opportunity.

That said, a false flag sounds very plausible here too. The Kremlin’s response is awfully suspicious here as well as the events. Seems like an easy way to stir up domestic support and potentially escalate things.

And if it was not the Russians, this says a lot about their air defenses. Especially if the drones came from Ukrainian territory. You’d think Russia, run by the most paranoid man in the world, would be aware of every fruit fly within Moscow airspace.

One theory I heard was that apparently China’s red line for getting involved the war with Russia was attacks on Ukrainian soil. So if Russia may be trying to trick China into supplying arms.

I await some expert analysis on the videos released. The drone does not look particularly large, but not a quadcopter either. It definitely does not appear to be one of those Soviet era big, jet-powered reconnaissance drones the Ukrainians were repurposing.
 
That said, a false flag sounds very plausible here too.

Russia has a history of that. The urgent need to de-nazify Ukraine comes to mind as a pretext to invade Ukraine to begin with, comes to mind.

Also, there would be a massive risk to Ukraine’s global image could be significantly damaged if the drone accidentally killed innocent civilians.

Exactly. Zelensky would lose a ton of hard earned worldwide respect and support doing that. He's a smart man and knows the value of the respect/support he has. For grins, let's say Zelensky ordered the attack and killed a bunch of people. The response would be swift (to the extent that's possible from Russia).
 
Russia has a history of that. The urgent need to de-nazify Ukraine comes to mind as a pretext to invade Ukraine to begin with, comes to mind.



Exactly. Zelensky would lose a ton of hard earned worldwide respect and support attempting that. He's a smart man and knows the value of that. For grins, let's say Zelensky ordered the attack and killed a bunch of people. The response would be swift (to the extent that's possible from Russia).
True. Zelensky is smart enough to know that a far better idea would be to fly the drones around dragging banners that say ”Ukraine loves the russian people. Tell Putin to leave us alone”

Far more value that a couple small explosions, far more embarrassing to Putin.
 
True. Zelensky is smart enough to know that a far better idea would be to fly the drones around dragging banners that say ”Ukraine loves the russian people. Tell Putin to leave us alone”

Far more value that a couple small explosions, far more embarrassing to Putin.
I like that!
 
The drones were clearly not intended to cause any real damage: they each produced a dramatic fireball above the dome, nothing else. If the intent was genuine assault, they would have been loaded with high explosives, not piddly incendiaries. And they would have struck below the flagpole. In the daytime (when people are there).

If this was actually a Ukrainian attack, it was largely symbolic. "Look, we can do this." And note how it was timed carefully so that there would be a camera pointed in the right direction when the second one hit (cf. WTC attacks).

My instinct is that this was not done by Kyiv, but it could be from anti-Vlad Russians. False flag, eh, possibly but not likely. A false flag would not hit the Kremlin, and would kill some civilians for emotional effect.
 
The drones were clearly not intended to cause any real damage: they each produced a dramatic fireball above the dome, nothing else. If the intent was genuine assault, they would have been loaded with high explosives, not piddly incendiaries. And they would have struck below the flagpole. In the daytime (when people are there).

If this was actually a Ukrainian attack, it was largely symbolic. "Look, we can do this." And note how it was timed carefully so that there would be a camera pointed in the right direction when the second one hit (cf. WTC attacks).

My instinct is that this was not done by Kyiv, but it could be from anti-Vlad Russians. False flag, eh, possibly but not likely. A false flag would not hit the Kremlin, and would kill some civilians for emotional effect.

Wagner guys, i say.
 
Russia has a history of that. The urgent need to de-nazify Ukraine comes to mind as a pretext to invade Ukraine to begin with, comes to mind.



Exactly. Zelensky would lose a ton of hard earned worldwide respect and support doing that. He's a smart man and knows the value of the respect/support he has. For grins, let's say Zelensky ordered the attack and killed a bunch of people. The response would be swift (to the extent that's possible from Russia).

He knows if Ukraine targeted Moscow western support could very easily get suspended and public support lost.

And sending a drone probably capable of carrying 20kg (adjusting for travel distance from Ukraine, probably less than 20kg) to “assassinate” Putin in the hardened fortress of the Kremlin, surrounded by rings of air defense, makes little sense. No one would expect such a platform to create the damage necessary, unless maybe the knew precisely where he was and it wasn’t deep within a massive stone building. Who knows how good Ukrainian intelligence in tracking Putin, but I think it’s common sense he does not really live at the Kremlin or would be in an exposed area.

Its’s a little odd the camera was in place to perfectly frame where the drone came down right atop the building with the Russian flag- exploding just before hitting the building… though not an impossible coincidence. Russia claims they used electronic warfare to take it down. While I suppose they could have interfered with the controls, detonating the payload, you’d think if Ukraine really wanted to hit Putin they’d have backup inertial navigation system to target the drone in case of jamming. The UJ-22 drone, used in other attacks, is equipped with an INS. Unless the Russians could just microwave the drone with Radar somehow causing it to detonate. It doesn’t make sense as a tactic.

If it was a false flag, it would make sense Russia blows it up over a un-occupied building at night where no one can get hurt and blame the government. And self-destruction would be a much safer option than shooting an anti-air missile at low altitude in a city. Plus, Russia needs those anti-air missiles to repurpose as surface-to-surface missiles targeting Ukrainian apartments, as they have done.

Lastly, it doesn’t make sense that Ukraine would waste the extremely limited resources they have on something that provides really no tangible benefit to the war and only rally’s the Russians and anger allies. This is not like blowing up an oil depot or weapons cache or factory, or an Air Force base that will impact Russia’s ability to fight.

It’s not an impossibility Ukraine is responsible- either from within Ukraine or special forces within Russia. But a false flag makes a lot more sense.

Or it was independent, pro-Ukrainian Russians doing their own thing and looking to make a statement.

I’m just surprised Russia hasn’t blamed the US for this yet.
 
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