Russia-Ukraine

[dada_dave]

This is pretty good: Ukrainian Military Intelligence claiming Prigozhin offered MOD troop locations to them.

 

[Citysnaps]

So the Russians lost 2 aircraft and 2 expensive EW helicopters … over Russian territory. Reports differ as to whether they were shot down by Ukrainian AD or friendly fire by twitchy Russian AD operators concerned over Storm Shadow.

I love this response:

The Ukrainian air force spokesman, Yuriy Ihnat, said Sunday that a Russian “strike air group attacked Ukraine from the north, from Bryansk Oblast. They do this almost every day. They carry out strikes with guided bombs.” In this instance, he said, “they ran into some trouble."

 

[dada_dave]

I love this response:

The Ukrainian air force spokesman, Yuriy Ihnat, said Sunday that a Russian “strike air group attacked Ukraine from the north, from Bryansk Oblast. They do this almost every day. They carry out strikes with guided bombs.” In this instance, he said, “they ran into some trouble."

I see people leaning towards Ukraine shooting them down as the most likely explanation but the fact that we’re even entertaining the idea that Russian AD shot 4 of their own down over their own territory speaks volumes about where we are.

It kinda reminds me of the Moskva when the Russians tried to claim it was an accident rather than Ukrainian action. In the beginning, experts cautioned against dismissing this explanation outright as it wasn’t unreasonable that the Russians blew up their own ship given the history of Russian Navy incompetence. As it turns out, incompetence may have played a role in why it went so badly for them and sank, but of course we know it was still fundamentally a result of the Ukrainian attack.

 

[AG_PhamD]

I see people leaning towards Ukraine shooting them down as the most likely explanation but the fact that we’re even entertaining the idea that Russian AD shot 4 of their own down over their own territory speaks volumes about where we are.

It kinda reminds me of the Moskva when the Russians tried to claim it was an accident rather than Ukrainian action. In the beginning, experts cautioned against dismissing this explanation outright as it wasn’t unreasonable that the Russians blew up their own ship given the history of Russian Navy incompetence. As it turns out, incompetence may have played a role in why it went so badly for them and sank, but of course we know it was still fundamentally a result of the Ukrainian attack.

I would assume Ukraine shot them down- or at least most of them. It’s hard to imagine Russia would make the same mistake 4x over in one day. Given Russia’s apparent lack of communication, training, organization, discipline, etc, it’s not impossible to imagine all the shoot down 4 of their own aircraft. I suppose it’s also possible that at least one of these aircraft crashed due to pilot error or mechanical fault. Russia has suffered some losses of fighter jets due to controlled flight into terrain trying to fly low to avoid SAMs.

But Occam’s razor would suggest it’s the Ukrainians, or at least the majority that are responsible. Indeed it’s a rather interesting and amusing we even have to consider things other than most obvious answer.

 

[Citysnaps]

I would assume Ukraine shot them down- or at least most of them.

I believe so as well. With UK and US RC-135 Rivet Joint aircraft, Global Hawk drones, and other assets collecting signals intelligence and forwarding to Ukraine, I wouldn't be surprised that Ukraine military is apprised of potential Russian attacks before their planes leave the runway.

And ultimately "run into some trouble."

 

[dada_dave]

I believe so as well. With UK and US RC-135 Rivet Joint aircraft, Global Hawk drones, and other assets collecting signals intelligence and forwarding to Ukraine, I wouldn't be surprised that Ukraine military is apprised of potential Russian attacks before their planes leave the runway.

And ultimately "run into some trouble."

It’s also possible that the Russians use the same flight paths over and over again so that the Ukrainians were just waiting for them (if it was an infiltration group armed with stingers). As with the Moskva, incompetence can still play a role. After all, the last disaster in that very area for Russian aviation the Russian pilot released his glide bomb over Belgorod which failed to glide. Equipment failure isn’t necessarily the problem, that happens, but risking releasing such a bomb over your own major population center? Eoof.

 

[dada_dave]

I would assume Ukraine shot them down- or at least most of them. It’s hard to imagine Russia would make the same mistake 4x over in one day. Given Russia’s apparent lack of communication, training, organization, discipline, etc, it’s not impossible to imagine all the shoot down 4 of their own aircraft. I suppose it’s also possible that at least one of these aircraft crashed due to pilot error or mechanical fault. Russia has suffered some losses of fighter jets due to controlled flight into terrain trying to fly low to avoid SAMs.

But Occam’s razor would suggest it’s the Ukrainians, or at least the majority that are responsible. Indeed it’s a rather interesting and amusing we even have to consider things other than most obvious answer.

I believe so as well. With UK and US RC-135 Rivet Joint aircraft, Global Hawk drones, and other assets collecting signals intelligence and forwarding to Ukraine, I wouldn't be surprised that Ukraine military is apprised of potential Russian attacks before their planes leave the runway.

And ultimately "run into some trouble."

Russian telegram channel “Fighterbomber” perspective:


According to him it is actually more likely they shot their own own planes down because IFF is really that bad and that the strike group was all shot down at once (within a few minutes of each other) but in some ways it doesn’t matter because whatever the immediate cause gross incompetence of Russian systems lies at its core. Again, this is from a Russian perspective (the Twitter account is not, he is very pro-Ukraine but he translates Russian into English for people to see what the other side is writing).

 

[Citysnaps]

Russian telegram channel “Fighterbomber” perspective:


According to him it is actually more likely they shot their own own planes down because IFF is really that bad and that the strike group was all shot down at once (within a few minutes of each other) but in some ways it doesn’t matter because whatever the immediate cause gross incompetence of Russian systems lies at its core. Again, this is from a Russian perspective (the Twitter account is not, he is very pro-Ukraine but he translates Russian into English for people to see what the other side is writing).

I'd push back on the confident claim that Ukraine AD systems (supplied by the US and Europe) could not take down five Russian aircraft in two minutes.

I still think it's likely Ukraine/Western AD systems took down the aircraft due to real-time tips from US/Western signals intelligence systems (Rivet Joint, Global Hawk, other assets). Though another possibility would be Western technology synchronizing and spoofing or jamming Russian IFF to the point Russian AD believed the five aircraft were hostile. That would be my 2nd choice.

 

[dada_dave]

I'd push back on the confident claim that Ukraine AD systems (supplied by the US and Europe) could not take down five Russian aircraft in two minutes.

I still think it's likely Ukraine/Western AD systems took down the aircraft due to real-time tips from US/Western signals intelligence systems (Rivet Joint, Global Hawk, other assets). Though another possibility would be Western technology synchronizing and spoofing or jamming Russian IFF to the point Russian AD believed the five aircraft were hostile. That would be my 2nd choice.

I think it’s more about where they were shot down plus the timing. His argument is that basically unless the US/Ukraine secretly got long rang Air AA launched missiles to work with the aging MiGs/SUs (possible but no evidence) it would require putting an AD system right on the border (which are very big, hard to miss). The rapidness of the shoot down pushes back against the notion of an infiltration group with stingers (again according to this writer).

The one part I definitely agree with this Russian’s analysis is that regardless of the explanation it is incredibly bad for Russian security: they are either: 1) incompetent at iff and shot their own attack down, 2) allowed several stinger teams all the way into the border region, shoot down their craft and get out, 3) missed a giant long range Ukrainian AD complex right on their border, 4) your explanation if their AD somehow got spoofed into shooting their own down that’s just as bad since the two helicopters are their newest electronic warfare variants, 5) most worryingly though with potentially less incompetence on their end the US/Ukraine figured out how to upgrade the MiGs to fire long range AA and nobody knows.

There are no good options here.

 

[Citysnaps]

I think it’s more about where they were shot down plus the timing. His argument is that basically unless the US/Ukraine secretly got long rang Air AA launched missiles to work with the aging MiGs/SUs (possible but no evidence) it would require putting an AD system right on the border (which are very big, hard to miss). The rapidness of the shoot down pushes back against the notion of an infiltration group with stingers (again according to this writer).

The one part I definitely agree with this Russian’s analysis is that regardless of the explanation it is incredibly bad for Russian security: they are either: 1) incompetent at iff and shot their own attack down, 2) allowed several stinger teams all the way into the border region, shoot down their craft and get out, 3) missed a giant long range Ukrainian AD complex right on their border, 4) your explanation if their AD somehow got spoofed into shooting their own down that’s just as bad since the two helicopters are their newest electronic warfare variants, 5) most worryingly though with potentially less incompetence on their end the US/Ukraine figured out how to upgrade the MiGs to fire long range AA and nobody knows.

There are no good options here.

Seeing as though the five aircraft were shot down near the Ukraine border, and, that NASAMS and other AD systems are deployed near the Ukraine border, it's not a stretch to believe they brought the aircraft down. *Especially* when being aided by collected Russian signals intelligence tip-offs passed from the US to Ukraine.

 

[dada_dave]

Seeing as though the five aircraft were shot down near the Ukraine border, and, that NASAMS and other AD systems are deployed near the Ukraine border, it's not a stretch to believe they brought the aircraft down. *Especially* when being aided by collected Russian signals intelligence tip-offs passed from the US to Ukraine.

The radars tend to be far back from the border areas to protect them. NASAMS/Patriots/S-300/400s tend to be back from border areas for precaution. They’re too vulnerable to be close to the front lines. In order to shoot the craft down where they were shot down they’d have to be in Russian artillery range. Those kinds of big AD systems aren’t put that close (in general).

 

[Citysnaps]

The radars tend to be far back from the border areas to protect them. NASAMS/Patriots/S-300/400s tend to be back from border areas for precaution. They’re too vulnerable to be close to the front lines. In order to shoot the craft down where they were shot down they’d have to be in Russian artillery range. Those kinds of big AD systems aren’t put that close (in general).

News sources say they are deployed near the border. Perhaps you have other information ?

 

[AG_PhamD]

The radars tend to be far back from the border areas to protect them. NASAMS/Patriots/S-300/400s tend to be back from border areas for precaution. They’re too vulnerable to be close to the front lines. In order to shoot the craft down where they were shot down they’d have to be in Russian artillery range. Those kinds of big AD systems aren’t put that close (in general).

The documented radar range of the Patriot is “20-100 miles”. Assuming this area is pretty flat and the altitude of the aircraft weren’t flying super low, I would expect the radar range would be towards the further end of whatever its actual range is. The launcher could presumably be located much closer and perhaps without the same risk concern that they would have to the radar. If the Russians got sloppy flying higher than they should have and flying predictable flight paths, I could see Ukraine sweeping in some equipment to take out the planes.

I haven’t watched the videos, nor would I be an expert in identifying the type of missile used, the reports I’ve seen claim the explosions were too small to be caused by a MANPADs. Not sure if this is true, but I suppose there is a possibility special forces or a rebel group were supplied MANPADs and shot the aircraft down on Russia’s territory. That the raises question however can you shoot 4 MANPADs without risking them potentially chasing after eachother? Given the number of mysterious explosions in Russia proper, this otherwise doesn’t seem out of the question.

I believe however Ukraine promised they would not use Patriot to target within Russia… or maybe that was just HIMARS.

Regardless, whatever scenario occurred reflects horribly on the Russians. It’s not surprising that Russians, especially Russian aviators would sound frustrated.

In other news, the CIA is apparently directly and publicly advertising to Russian soldiers to recruit them as spies.

 

[Citysnaps]

Nice... the CIA is looking to recruit dissatisfied Russians, and released a video to help that along.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/05/15/cia-video-russian-spy-recruitment-spies-alex-marquardt-dnt-ebof-vpx.cnn

 

[dada_dave]

News sources say they are deployed near the border. Perhaps you have other information ?

I don’t have specific information but I think it’s more the inexactness of the news agencies - there’s near the border and there’s near the border. Generally speaking you don’t put it NASAMS and Patriots or the Russian equivalents near enough to the front lines that they could be endangered by regular fire. But the Ukrainians could’ve risked it.

The documented radar range of the Patriot is “20-100 miles”. Assuming this area is pretty flat and the altitude of the aircraft weren’t flying super low, I would expect the radar range would be towards the further end of whatever its actual range is. The launcher could presumably be located much closer and perhaps without the same risk concern that they would have to the radar. If the Russians got sloppy flying higher than they should have and flying predictable flight paths, I could see Ukraine sweeping in some equipment to take out the planes.

I haven’t watched the videos, nor would I be an expert in identifying the type of missile used, the reports I’ve seen claim the explosions were too small to be caused by a MANPADs. Not sure if this is true, but I suppose there is a possibility special forces or a rebel group were supplied MANPADs and shot the aircraft down on Russia’s territory. That the raises question however can you shoot 4 MANPADs without risking them potentially chasing after eachother? Given the number of mysterious explosions in Russia proper, this otherwise doesn’t seem out of the question.

I believe however Ukraine promised they would not use Patriot to target within Russia… or maybe that was just HIMARS.

Regardless, whatever scenario occurred reflects horribly on the Russians. It’s not surprising that Russians, especially Russian aviators would sound frustrated.

In other news, the CIA is apparently directly and publicly advertising to Russian soldiers to recruit them as spies.

i believe the restrictions are for long range artillery and rockets like GLMRS and presumably now Storm Shadow. There could be restrictions I suppose on AD systems but I don’t think there are any known and it makes less sense for those since I don’t believe unlike their Russian counterparts that western AD systems have a ground attack capability (the Russian one is poor but it has one). I could be wrong though.

You are correct that both sides have risked TELs (and lost TELs) but I think given the location deep in Bryansk oblast people seem to believe the radars would’ve had to be unacceptably close to the front lines. I’m not enough of an expert to contradict this. But it is true that the Patriot and NASAMS system’s public data are almost certainly not their true range or capabilities. So to be clear to both of you I am not personally discounting any of these possibilities including Ukrainian AD at the border laying a trap.

I don’t believe I’ve heard anything about stingers interfering with each other but again I’m not an expert.

As you say it almost doesn’t matter. I completely agree: There’s no explanation that reflects well on them. And the one that would reflect best, long range air fired AA, has the worst implications for them.

 

[dada_dave]

 

[Yoused]

It appears that Mr. Putin may have been misled as to the capabilities of the Kinzhal hypersonic missile. He told Russia and the world that the missile travels at mach 10, which is kind of fast and hard to intercept. The reality appears to be that Kinzhal's hypersonic interval occurs around launch time, and its actual sustained speed is much, much lower than mach 10.

Russia says hypersonic missile scientists face 'very serious' treason accusations

Three Russian academics who have worked on hypersonic missile technology face "very serious accusations", the Kremlin said on Wednesday, in a treason investigation that has spread alarm through Russia's scientific community.

www.reuters.com

He is very angry that his yes-men told him what he wanted to hear.

 

[Citysnaps]

Here's an excellent story that examines the recent successes of Ukraine's air defense systems. (How do I get links like the one below to open up?)

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/17/europe/ukraine-kyiv-air-defense-weapons-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

 

[dada_dave]

Seeing as though the five aircraft were shot down near the Ukraine border, and, that NASAMS and other AD systems are deployed near the Ukraine border, it's not a stretch to believe they brought the aircraft down. *Especially* when being aided by collected Russian signals intelligence tip-offs passed from the US to Ukraine.

The documented radar range of the Patriot is “20-100 miles”. Assuming this area is pretty flat and the altitude of the aircraft weren’t flying super low, I would expect the radar range would be towards the further end of whatever its actual range is. The launcher could presumably be located much closer and perhaps without the same risk concern that they would have to the radar. If the Russians got sloppy flying higher than they should have and flying predictable flight paths, I could see Ukraine sweeping in some equipment to take out the planes.

I haven’t watched the videos, nor would I be an expert in identifying the type of missile used, the reports I’ve seen claim the explosions were too small to be caused by a MANPADs. Not sure if this is true, but I suppose there is a possibility special forces or a rebel group were supplied MANPADs and shot the aircraft down on Russia’s territory. That the raises question however can you shoot 4 MANPADs without risking them potentially chasing after eachother? Given the number of mysterious explosions in Russia proper, this otherwise doesn’t seem out of the question.

I believe however Ukraine promised they would not use Patriot to target within Russia… or maybe that was just HIMARS.

Regardless, whatever scenario occurred reflects horribly on the Russians. It’s not surprising that Russians, especially Russian aviators would sound frustrated.

In other news, the CIA is apparently directly and publicly advertising to Russian soldiers to recruit them as spies.

 

[Citysnaps]

No details, but if true, it seems Ukraine is on a roll. From last night:

Ukraine says it shot down 29 of 30 missiles in Russian attacks

Ukraine shot down 29 of 30 missiles launched by Russia in overnight air strikes but one person was killed in an attack on the southern city of Odesa, the Ukrainian military said on Thursday.

www.reuters.com