Russia-Ukraine

[AG_PhamD]

Reportedly the damage was so minimal that the system was already back up and running yesterday. Whether it was damaged by falling debris or a misfire is still unknown except to those who know.

Just to be cognizant of potential spinning of the facts, it’s not clear to me if they’re referring to the component hit or the system overall as having minor damage- damage to the component or whole system? The Patriot system is comprised of a number of mobile parts- such as the radar, command/control center, communications , generator, multiple mobile launchers, vehicles to reload the launchers, etc that are intended not to be parked next to each other.

You could say minor damage is completing losing 1 launcher and it’s missiles is minor damage that did not affect operations in the big scheme.

Unless Russia is launching Nukes clearly it would be almost impossible to take out the entire system at once, though destroying the radar might be just as good.

OR-

Maybe this is just a psyop. Make Russia think that they can successfully target Patriot Systems with a fake launcher, then deploy a bunch of fake launchers for Russia to waste their best weapons on.

(Side note: I feel like I read something once about the Patriot’s ability to function if it loses a major component like C&C or the radar. I know it does have a lot of integration with other systems so I would not be surprised if it had some functionality).

That’s not actually how it works - the passive vs active part is a bit of a misnomer in my opinion:

MIM-104 Patriot - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Passive electronically scanned array - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Active electronically scanned array - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Basically the radar is sending out a beam but instead of a rotating dish it’s using a transmitter that is connected to many small antennae. This allows a narrow beam that can move quickly. The difference with an “active” system is the active system has a bunch of small transmitters for every antennae allowing for even more flexibility. Supposedly the next version of the radar the 65-A the A will stand for active. I’ll be honest I don’t know why they call it passive versus active. But it isn’t because the dish doesn’t send out signals. It does. And even if it didn’t, some SAM systems have multiple radars with different roles (and you are right that the Patriot system can indeed integrate multiple signals from multiple sources), some of them are active somewhere - basically someone has to emit the signal and that signal can be detected. The “active” scanning radar can ironically help with this as it can send out multiple frequencies and thus disguise the telltale signal of a radar sending out a massive signal at single frequency.

I believe you may be confusing active and passive radar with phased array/electronically scanned arrays. Active Electronically Scanned Arrays (AESA) are the newer generation of radar found on things like the F35, Patriot’s ground radar, Aegis system, etc. or even the Starlink dishes.

As I understand In the most basic definitions, active radar is where an antenna emits a signal and also receives the radar reflection. Passive radar is where the emitting and receiving antennas are in two different places. I think this can get confusing with more technical applications like PESA radars which both transmit and receive on the same overall radar unit, but there are separate Tx/Rx components rather than using transceivers found on EASA.

Phased Array radars are those that create beams of specific radio waves that can be “steered” without physically moving the antennas.

In terms of the Patriot, the tracking/guidance radar is a EASA radar. The missiles also have their own radar too though. PAC-3 uses active radar homing, meaning the missile’s guidance contains both radar transmitters and receivers so it can ultimately intercept the target without any guidance from the ground station. The older PAC-2 had semi-active homing, which required the ground radar to communicate with the missile. Indeed, evidently the active radar on the PAC-3 missiles is so accurate they are hit to kill, rather than having a proximity fuse.

I would expect, Ukraine would be keeping generally be keeping their Patriots off the front lines with multiple layers of other air defense/radar ahead of it. It’s effectively their most powerful, expensive, and capable system and presumably would be used to protect their most important assets. I suppose one of the “limitations” of Patriot is it’s not particularly “mobile” compared to other, less capable systems, especially in its complete form.

So perhaps they’re just keeping Russia on their toes…

 

[Citysnaps]

Passive radar is where the emitting and receiving antennas are in two different places.

That would be a bistatic or multistatic radar system. Where a transmitter(s), cooperating or non-cooperating, would be located in a different location. And transmitter(s) would not necessarily be designed for radar applications.

 

[Citysnaps]

In terms of the Patriot, the tracking/guidance radar is a EASA radar. The missiles also have their own radar too though. PAC-3 uses active radar homing, meaning the missile’s guidance contains both radar transmitters and receivers so it can ultimately intercept the target without any guidance from the ground station.

Targets are initially tracked/identified/acquired from the Patriot ground radar (that can serve multiple missile launchers and track multiple targets simultaneously). After missile launch, and when the missile's radar acquires the target, it then takes over and guides the missile for the kill.

 

[Yoused]

No window involved this time

Russian Deputy Minister Dies Suddenly After Slamming ‘Fascist Invasion’ of Ukraine

The Russian government offered its “deepest condolences” to his loved ones.

www.thedailybeast.com

but the story says the stress of his ministry post in a fucked up regime led him to be eating handfuls of antidepressants and tranquilizers, so he may have just gradually pilled himself to death. It also says that his widow is a Putin-licker.

 

[dada_dave]

Targets are initially tracked/identified/acquired from the Patriot ground radar (that can serve multiple missile launchers and track multiple targets simultaneously). After missile launch, and when the missile's radar acquires the target, it then takes over and guides the missile for the kill.

So the Russians now believe it was PAC-2 missiles that took out the craft.


This thread explains one possible mechanism how:


In short it agrees with your theory about the bistatic/multi static capability to interface with other radars but rather than hijacking a Russian signal they used a radar that’s always operating and wouldn’t have caused the Russians alarm (something like an AWACS). This would allow the Patriot to shoot beyond its own radar’s range and since the missiles weren’t being guided by their own radar the Russian craft wouldn’t have gotten missile target warnings despite that they should’ve seen the missiles on their own radars. If the pilots were arrogant/lazy they wouldn’t then have performed the basic maneuvers/countermeasures that would’ve saved their lives despite having plenty of (indirect) warning to do so (from their own radars but not the missiles warning system).

 

[Citysnaps]

If the pilots were arrogant/lazy they wouldn’t then have performed the basic maneuvers/countermeasures that would’ve saved their lives despite having plenty of (indirect) warning to do so (from their own radars but not the missiles warning system).

Imo, bistatic assistance, especially using non-cooperative emitters, was one of the most clever advances in tactical radar and signals collection.

As an aside... Long ago in the 1960s, a 150 foot diameter dish was built on Stanford University property (about 30 mies south of San Francisco), designed by SRI (Stanford Research Institute), funded by the Air Force, operated (at the time) by the government, and also Stanford as a research radio telescope - a nice cover. Its *main* purpose, though, was to discover and collect data from Soviet ABM radars (Hen House) as well as other Soviet radars. The downing of Gary Powers’ U2 aircraft put a stop to imagery and signals collection overflights of the Soviet Union.

You might wonder how a passive collector could capture signals on the other side of the globe. In that situation the Moon was used as a bistatic reflector. Being that ABM radar transmitters were extremely powerful (around a megawatt), the Stanford 150’ dish had enough gain due to its size, despite suffering *two* inverse square law path loss attenuations (main signal going up to the Moon, another being reflected signals from the Moon going down) to still have enough signal-to-noise ratio to process and characterize the radars’ complex signals format. Of course the Moon needed to be in view at both locations. Apparently they could get a few dozen hours of useful collection per month.

You gotta hand it to US scientists and systems engineers back to the 1960s to come up with a scheme like that, which proved to be a huge success.

 

[Yoused]

Somewhere between 8 and 30 drones were seen over Moscow overnight. Two people were injured, even though the Kremlin says all were shot down.

 

[Citysnaps]

Somewhere between 8 and 30 drones were seen over Moscow overnight. Two people were injured, even though the Kremlin says all were shot down.

I would think that action would be received as embarrassing. Especially if from Ukraine.

 

[Eric]

Somewhere between 8 and 30 drones were seen over Moscow overnight. Two people were injured, even though the Kremlin says all were shot down.

At some point they'll have to take it to Russia inside of their own borders if they really want to gain an upper hand in this war. Make Putin target number one and put them on the defensive.

 

[dada_dave]

In unsurprising news of the day Tara Reade “defects” to Russia. And nobody cares.

 

[dada_dave]

At some point they'll have to take it to Russia inside of their own borders if they really want to gain an upper hand in this war. Make Putin target number one and put them on the defensive.

 

[Nycturne]

At some point they'll have to take it to Russia inside of their own borders if they really want to gain an upper hand in this war. Make Putin target number one and put them on the defensive.

I think my stance on that is they just need to be careful. I'm absolutely fine with them disrupting military logistics. Going after the Kremlin itself is a little iffier, but I think there's a valid argument to be had that Putin and senior staff waging the war are fair game. But if they were to ever screw up and get a bunch of civilian deaths on the front page, I worry that pro-Russia elements in places like the US would get leverage they need to back off our support.

 

[dada_dave]

 

[dada_dave]

I think my stance on that is they just need to be careful. I'm absolutely fine with them disrupting military logistics. Going after the Kremlin itself is a little iffier, but I think there's a valid argument to be had that Putin and senior staff waging the war are fair game. But if they were to ever screw up and get a bunch of civilian deaths on the front page, I worry that pro-Russia elements in places like the US would get leverage they need to back off our support.

I’d also add that I be fine fine with them conducting larger raids or even holding ground in Russian territory. They need to spread the field to open up gaps in those defensive lines and the Russian border isn’t well defended as proven by the two previous raids. Unfortunately this does risk the ire of allies more but the UK has come out strongly in favor of Ukraine being able to do it and the US’ position was at least neutral if not enthusiastic. I believe the quote from the US was something on the order of: “we don’t encourage or enable it but they have the right to do it”.

 

[Citysnaps]

In unsurprising news of the day Tara Reade “defects” to Russia. And nobody cares.

Wonderful. She'll probably be awarded The Order of Lenin medal.

 

[dada_dave]

I’d also add that I be fine fine with them conducting larger raids or even holding ground in Russian territory. They need to spread the field to open up gaps in those defensive lines and the Russian border isn’t well defended as proven by the two previous raids. Unfortunately this does risk the ire of allies more but the UK has come out strongly in favor of Ukraine being able to do it and the US’ position was at least neutral if not enthusiastic. I believe the quote from the US was something on the order of: “we don’t encourage or enable it but they have the right to do it”.

A good thread on Ukrainian shaping operations. Hopefully they’ll spread the Russians thinly enough that they can punch through the location of their choice.

 

[Yoused]

How was your morning commute?

Watch: Missile falls from sky onto busy Kyiv road

The incident happened on 29 May during a rare daytime attack on the city, no one was injured.

www.bbc.com

Meh, just keep driving.

 

[Yoused]

A group of defector soldiers called Freedom of Russia Legion have crossed into Belgorod Oblast and claim to have capture the towns of Grayvoron and Golovchino in the western part of the Oblast. The Kremlin has, naturally, branded Freedom of Russia Legion a terrorist organization.

The governor of Belgorod, which is on the northern Ukraine border near Kharkiv, has been instructed to deny the presence of hostile troops in his jurisdiction. This becomes problematic for Russia, because they cannot claim to be defending against an enemy that does not exist. But, if the Special Military Operation is leaking backwards into the motherland, it could be problematic for Ukraine, which receives aid on the condition that it not be used to attack Russia. Ukraine leadership must tread carefully here.

 

[Yoused]

"Russian state TV … Host Olga Skabeeva said Russia needs the final solution of the Ukrainian question …"

Nothing disturbing about that, no, not at all. Kill every living thing in Kharkiv region, she suggested.

 

[Eric]

"Russian state TV … Host Olga Skabeeva said Russia needs the final solution of the Ukrainian question …"

Nothing disturbing about that, no, not at all. Kill every living thing in Kharkiv region, she suggested.

Their options are running out, nobody thought they would be in for this long and losing the war as badly as they are. Now Ukraine is about to take it back to their doorstep, but if they go nuclear they'll lose every bit of the remaining minimal support they're getting from China and will become the pariah of the world, so they'll need to weigh it out carefully.