Yeah the state propagandists have been on a genocidal path since the war began and they’re only going further down it.
Russia-Ukraine
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I think if Russia goes nuclear the Putin regime risks becoming a pariah to the Russian civilians. If you look at the current poor morale of Russian soldiers, I doubt many would want to stick around for a radioactive battleground. Even for Russians support the war, most probably don’t support risking this becoming a nuclear conflict. Russians probably wouldn’t be happy that nuclear fallout would probably be blowing onto their own soill. And neither would other European countries.
If Russia went nuclear, I think that could easily be a red line for Ukraine’s allies and could result in their direct involvement. If Russia can’t beat Ukraine currently using to a large extent a hodgepodge of dated western weapons, I think they know they’d be screwed trying to fight NATO directly.
Given the current circumstances (not to mention a number of examples from the Cold War’s near nuclear launch situations) Putin might have some problems getting all the necessary subordinates to carry out a nuclear first strike. I don’t think many people want to be responsible for a first strike on a non-nuclear country when the rest of the world is already against you.
If a nuclear bomb is to be detonated by Russia, I think the thing for them to do would be an atmospheric test on their own territory. That would freak people out while not having the implications involved with using them militarily.
It’s possible that the meat of the counteroffensive is beginning - according to panicking Russias in the south these pushes seem bigger and for the first time Leopards have been spotted. So it’s possible these are some parts of the assault brigades the Ukrainians have been saving up*. Obviously the Ukrainians aren’t saying anything but this feels like the start of a new phase.
*Apparently not. These attacking brigades have been given western equipment but are not the ones set aside. So this is a new phase, penetrations up to 5-6 kilometers so far, but could really big shaping operations in force which of course could turn into main thrusts if the Russians don’t respond and the Ukrainians will punch through where the Russians weaken their lines if they do.
*Apparently not. These attacking brigades have been given western equipment but are not the ones set aside. So this is a new phase, penetrations up to 5-6 kilometers so far, but could really big shaping operations in force which of course could turn into main thrusts if the Russians don’t respond and the Ukrainians will punch through where the Russians weaken their lines if they do.
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The Russian Free Legion (not the Russian Volunteer Corp) offering a unusual deal to Wagner. For clarity the 72 Brigade is a *Russian* brigade.
If you’ve not been following this saga, Wagner said they were attack by Russian MoD troops on their way out of Bakhmut. They then “arrested” the Russian Lt Col of the brigade they claim was responsible, beat the shit out of him and forced to him to record a confession. Again this is Russian army versus Wagner. Now the Russian Free Legion still operating in Belgorod has taken POWs and the Governor of Belgorod reneged on negotiating their release so to further troll the Russians and split between Wagner and MoD they made this offer.
I’m honestly not sure what Prigozhin’s end game here is. He’s got his own private army, probably better overall troops, but no heavy equipment of his own. He seems to be gearing up rhetorically for a civil war, talking about how the Ukrainians are better and more honorable soldiers (keep in mind Wagner committed horrifying war crimes against Ukrainian soldiers this is rhetorical) than Russian MoD and even taking pot shots at Putin (without whom Prigozhin is nothing). Whatever is going on, Ukrainian intelligence is loving this.
If you’ve not been following this saga, Wagner said they were attack by Russian MoD troops on their way out of Bakhmut. They then “arrested” the Russian Lt Col of the brigade they claim was responsible, beat the shit out of him and forced to him to record a confession. Again this is Russian army versus Wagner. Now the Russian Free Legion still operating in Belgorod has taken POWs and the Governor of Belgorod reneged on negotiating their release so to further troll the Russians and split between Wagner and MoD they made this offer.
I’m honestly not sure what Prigozhin’s end game here is. He’s got his own private army, probably better overall troops, but no heavy equipment of his own. He seems to be gearing up rhetorically for a civil war, talking about how the Ukrainians are better and more honorable soldiers (keep in mind Wagner committed horrifying war crimes against Ukrainian soldiers this is rhetorical) than Russian MoD and even taking pot shots at Putin (without whom Prigozhin is nothing). Whatever is going on, Ukrainian intelligence is loving this.
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Nycturne
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More proof that deepfakes are here for political purposes and the genie is out of the bottle.
I can't see how this wouldn't be effective at creating problems for Putin though. Sitting on this capability and timing it for this is just... *chef's kiss*
leman
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Yeah, it has been blown. Just talked to friends who’s family in Cherson. It’s messed up. Hope people will get to safety and that Ukrainian army has a plan for this.
Yikes, best of luck to your friend and his family
Btw it should be pointed out that the bank of the river the Russians are on is going to be more susceptible to flooding so if they did do this deliberately they’re flooding their own positions worse than the Ukrainian ones. Unofficial Russian sources said it was the Ukrainians but official Russian sources so far claiming it was an accident due to damage see three posts above.The Ukrainians have said it was the Russians blowing it, which makes the most amount of sense as the Russians are in control of the dam and earlier claims were that the Russians had mined it. Further Russia let the water level get as high as possible before this happened ensuring that flooding would be its worst.
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Might have is has been.
I would say most definitely the Russians. First of all, the Russians had full control over this dam/hydro plant since Feb 2022. Power plants are highly secured facilities during peacetime, let alone war. Massive dams, as was made apparent in WWII, are not particularly easy to blow ups. In that this plant was built in 1950 by the Soviets, I would expect it was hardened its construction against bombings. During WWII the US had massive paranoia that the newly constructed Hoover Damn would be bombed/sabotaged that enacted significant security measures and some crazy ideas were thrown around to add extra protection.
A structure like this would not be destroyed by artillery rounds. It’s not some guy with a grenade or anti-tank missile. It think it’s highly unlikely Russia’s security here was so poor that a team of Ukrainians or Partisans strolled in and strategically placed thousands of pounds of explosives without anyone noticing. Right.
In WWII the British Bouncing bombs had 6600lbs of Torpex = about 10,000lbs of TNT but also takes advantage of the physics of underwater explosions. Outside of the water you’d need even more explosives.
Certainly Ukraine would blow up their own hydro plant to make their counteroffensive more difficult for themselves while also destroying a vital piece of critical infrastructure and something that provided leverage over Russian occupied Crimea’s water supply.
Today is June 6th- the anniversary of D-Day. It would make sense if Ukraine has started their counteroffensive today. It would also make sense for Russia to blow the dam to disrupt Ukraines ability to attack over a massive distance. And flooding parts of Crimea is probably preferable to no water at all in the occupiers mind.
Another piece of evidence, some Russian puppet in allegedly flood risk occupied territory said something to the effect there’s no risk of flooding to Russians along the river. If people happen to be in danger they will send buses to bring them to safety. NBD, nothing to see here. The dismissive response seems like the opposite you’d expect if you were trying to blame Ukraine.
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The flooding is not in Crimea at all, it is in Kherson Oblast, quite some distance from the marsh between Kherson and Crimea. Losing the canal that serves Crimea is a serious problem for Russia.
The gain for Russia is electrical losses for Ukraine. The hydro power loss is probably significant for Ukraine, but there is also the problem of the nuclear power plant at Enerhodar, which is situated on the reservoir. They (whoever is currently in control of the plant will have to figure out how to get enough cooling water to it, if they want to keep it running.
Apparently they need the water to cool even shut off reactors.
Nycturne
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The big nuclear reactors have fuel rods that cool down very slowly due to the fission byproducts. When fuel is removed from the reactor as part of refueling, it's common for the fuel to spend a couple years in the spent fuel pool, which itself needs to be cooled.
So yeah, losing the reservoir is not great.
Currently the IAEA says there’s no immediate threat to the plant’s cooling but I don’t know what the implications are long term.
Nycturne
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I'm sure there's a bunch of stressed out plant operators doing the math on that right now.
The nuclear plant is upstream of the dam, so while losing the reservoir may destroy the reservoir, you presumably will still have a river flowing there that probably has sufficient water to cool the plant.
I would assume here the reservoirs existence has little to do with nuclear power plant, but primarily to control downstream water and for the production of hydropower. Assuming the Soviets were taking nuclear safety seriously when the nuclear plant was built in the late 70’s (somewhat questionable- but since and esp after Chernobyl probably have rectified deficiencies), you probably would not build a nuclear plant whose cooling solely depended on the integrity of a dam.
Being a modern nuclear plant, there are multiple sources of cooling water and/or cooling systems.
If I’m not mistaken at least some if not all of the reactors are in some stage of shutdown, which will still require cooling but less than if it was operating at full capacity.
Indeed, generally spent fuel must be stored for 5 years before it is cool enough to be transferred to dry storage. That said, spent fuel is going to require less cooling than active reactors.
Still I think the biggest risk that remains is the loss of external electricity to the nuclear plant and then the generators running out of fuel. Losing the hydro plant is one less (very significant) grid power source And being hydro, it was a very reliable power source, not depending on shipments of fossil fuels that could be disrupted.
Nycturne
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It sounds like it was in full shutdown. So agreed that the risk should be minimal.
Agreed.
If hypothetically the plant was operating and they lost their main source of cooling water, depending on the design, they could have a serious problem if their generators are water cooled and rely on the same water source. That was how Fukashima was setup. I think most people assume Fukushima’s generators failed because they washed away or flooded. IIRC 12 of the 13 generators failed and 11 of those failed because they were cooled by seawater and their inappropriately placed seawater pumps were destroyed by the tsunami. The lack of electricity lead to a loss of cooling, which lead to a meltdown.
Also worth noting that the reactors were all shutdown automatically as a result of the initial earthquake. But since it takes weeks to cool down, the meltdowns occurred anyways, one reactor the day after the tsunami, the other two in the following several days. They were lucky that their three other 3 reactors had been in long term shutdown for maintenance.
Anyways, although there has been no nuclear disaster as a result of this war (other than the Russians strolling into the Chernobyl exclusion zone, rolling around in the dirt, and as a result reportedly catching acute radiation poisoning), I still think an extremely important point has been highlighted- just how dangerous it is to have nuclear plants in a war zone, which has never been an actual problem until now.
While reactor’s containment buildings are (at least in US/Europe) designed to withstand small bombs and small plane crashes at a minimum, there’s plenty of other potential ways to induce a nuclear disaster, intentionally or unintentionally.
Under the Geneva Convention, attacking a nuclear power plant is not technically illegal- it depends if the military action risks widespread civilian harm. Frankly, there needs to be much more stringent laws.
I think it should be illegal to attack nuclear plants, period. There should be like a 25-30+ mile military exclusion zone around nuclear plants. The UN should come in to defend that space from any military who tries to come in. Unfortunately that would have to include the defending nation. Nuclear plants cannot be used as shields in a war, period.
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Has anyone seen Tucker Carlson’s first Twitter video. He is promoting the belief that Ukraine is responsible for blowing up the dam. I’m not sure if it’s just ignorance and not following what’s going on in the war or if he is intentionally leaving out context (I would hope the former). If Russia wants to claim Ukraine is responsible, they should provide the evidence. Power plants are secure facilities. They should have plenty of cctv footage of what happened.
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