Russia-Ukraine

I think most people assume Fukushima’s generators failed because they washed away or flooded. IIRC 12 of the 13 generators failed and 11 of those failed because they were cooled by seawater and their inappropriately placed seawater pumps were destroyed by the tsunami. The lack of electricity lead to a loss of cooling, which lead to a meltdown. Also worth noting that the reactors were all shutdown automatically as a result of the initial earthquake. But since it takes weeks to cool down, the meltdowns occurred anyways, one reactor the day after the tsunami, the other two in the following several days. They were lucky that their three other 3 reactors had been in long term shutdown for maintenance.

The Fukushima facility was 40 years old. For a conventional power plant, that does not sound like much, but nuclear plants are pounded by so much constant, heavy radiation that 40 years is beyond designed lifespan. I suspect that Zaporizhzha is close to or beyond that age as well. (We had a fancy new reactor built down the river when I was a teenager, and I later learned that is was expected to run for 27 years.)

Under the Geneva Convention, attacking a nuclear power plant is not technically illegal- it depends if the military action risks widespread civilian harm. Frankly, there needs to be much more stringent laws.
Are you sure? That does not sound to me like it would be in the scope of what the Geneva Conventions cover.
 
Russian positions on the front line are being hit by massive barrages and Ukrainian officers are posting about “the night of nights” (D-Day reference as the paratroopers embarked for Normandy). Seems like the big attacks are about to start.
 
The Fukushima facility was 40 years old. For a conventional power plant, that does not sound like much, but nuclear plants are pounded by so much constant, heavy radiation that 40 years is beyond designed lifespan. I suspect that Zaporizhzha is close to or beyond that age as well. (We had a fancy new reactor built down the river when I was a teenager, and I later learned that is was expected to run for 27 years.)


Are you sure? That does not sound to me like it would be in the scope of what the Geneva Conventions cover.

Fukashima’s problems had little or less to do with the age of the reactor but a lot to do with a lack of oversight, complacency, poor preparedness, and poor decision making in responding to the disaster. That said, built today things probably would be different even if the disaster never happened.

Nuclear plants, at least in the west, were typically designed with a 30-40 year lifespan, but there’s no technical barrier in extending the service life. It’s more a question of cost and politics. Many of the reactors in the US have already been approved for 20-year extensions and there are plans to create further extension programs and there is an expectation some could run up to 80-100 years. That’s not to say upgrades are not installed over time. The cost of building nuclear plants is so expensive that it makes sense to use them for as long as safely and practically possible.

Zaporizhzha was built in 1979 and opened in 1984 if I remember correctly- which probably means a lot of the core technology dates back to the early 70’s if not earlier.

The Geneva Convention says regarding targeting “dangerous forces” (which specifically mentions nuclear plants (and dams for that matter)
“…shall not be made the object of attack, even when these objects are military objectives, if such attack may cause the release of dangerous forces and consequent severe losses among the civilian population."

Presumably, any sort of explosive weapons targeting a nuclear plant could constitute risking harm to civilians. But if a ballistic missile targeting lets say an air defense system accross the street from the power plant, misses its mark, blows up the plant instead, and creates a radiological catastrophe arguably it would not be a war crime because it was an accident, despite the obvious risk involved with the attack.

There’s other issues described here: https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-are-attacks-on-nuclear-plants-legal-under-international-law/a-62859174

On the same topic, if Russia is indeed responsible for blowing the dam, I think it’s fair to say that is another war crime.

Just to highlight the challenge of destroying dams, in WWII the Soviets destroyed the Dneiper Dam in Zaporizhzhya. They used 20 tons of TNT to blow out only a portion of the structure.

IMG_0985.jpeg
 
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Interesting analysis that seems to prove that the dam collapsed due to overspill, because the Russians always had the same sluice gate open. Also the video that supposedly shows the explosion of the damn is much older and shows how the Russians destroyed the part of the road that connected the damn to the Ukrainian controlled side.
The conclusion of the video is: The damn did not explode, but Russia is responsible nevertheless.

 
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Interesting analysis that seems to prove that the dam collapsed due to overspill, because the Russians always had the same spill gate open. Also the video that supposedly shows the explosion of the damn is much older and shows how the Russians destroyed the part of the road that connected the damn to the Ukrainian controlled side.
The conclusion of the video is: The damn did not explode, but Russia is responsible nevertheless.


Reportedly there is infrared satellite data showing an explosion at the dam coinciding with seismic activity and the SBU have radio intercepts of the Russian unit in question talking about blowing the dam. This corroborates early reports that the Russians tried to do a small explosion to scare people but it got out of hand.

Nothing is conclusive of course but … it seems it was at least partially deliberate by the Russians.




 
Reportedly there is infrared satellite data showing an explosion at the dam coinciding with seismic activity and the SBU have radio intercepts of the Russian unit in question talking about blowing the dam. This corroborates early reports that the Russians tried to do a small explosion to scare people but it got out of hand.

Nothing is conclusive of course but … it seems it was at least partially deliberate by the Russians.




Again I would shy away from saying that the dam was deliberately blown by the Russians is absolutely proven but it seems very likely. The Ukrainians have been saying (again through captured intercepts) since last year that the Russians had rigged the dam to blow.
 
But that doesn‘t explain why the roadway on the Russian controlled side is simply gone shortly before the damn collapsed. This would certainly be more consistent with erosion by the water.
I‘m not saying the Russians didn‘t do it, they are totally responsible. But it certainly casts some doubt on the big explosion theory.
 
But that doesn‘t explain why the roadway on the Russian controlled side is simply gone shortly before the damn collapsed. This would certainly be more consistent with erosion by the water.
I‘m not saying the Russians didn‘t do it, they are totally responsible. But it certainly casts some doubt on the big explosion theory.
Some doubt perhaps but it should be noted that eyewitnesses and seismic data and infrared data and intercepts all support some kind of explosion - whether or not it was meant to be big or if structural integrity failed on top of that is unknown. As I said I don’t believe in making firm claims, but a plausible scenario is that Russians wanted to make a small hole to cause minor flooding and panic but accidentally blew a much bigger portion up and/or their earlier actions weakened the dam to the the point that their smaller explosion caused much more damage than it should’ve. At this point we just don’t know. It may take a long time to find out.
 
Interesting analysis that seems to prove that the dam collapsed due to overspill, because the Russians always had the same sluice gate open. Also the video that supposedly shows the explosion of the damn is much older and shows how the Russians destroyed the part of the road that connected the damn to the Ukrainian controlled side.
The conclusion of the video is: The damn did not explode, but Russia is responsible nevertheless.



One other analysis I read about from by an engineer a couple days suggested it would be very unlikely for the overtopped dam to fail in the center concrete sections, rather the embankments of the earthen portion near the edges of the concrete as the soil would erode. There are various reports of explosions being heard by both sides, but it’s possible this could be confused with the dam collapsing. Reportedly US spy satellites also registered an explosion, though I don’t know what resolution these infrared sensors have. Seismic data reportedly has an explosion occurring just before the collapse, though I’m not sure this has been verified by other sources or how accurate such a reading is (could a coincidental big explosion a couple miles away be differentiated). One of Russias military brigades reported having rigged the dam with explosives months ago.

Presumably there should be CCTV cameras all over this dam/power station for security reasons but also identifying problems and assessing failures. Under a typical situation, you’d expect them to have offsite storage of the footage. At the very least Russia should have evidence of exactly what happened. But honestly in that Ukraine controlled the other side of the river, you’d think they’d have monitoring on the dam too.

Such a large dam like this should have emergency spillways, able to accommodate water overflowing, granted this is a 70 year old dam in a poor country that has incurred damage from the war.

Regardless, Russia effectively had control of the dam. If the rising water did not prompt them to open the sluicegates, that’s on them. If they were afraid of Ukrainians attacking the gantry operators, Russia should have coordinated with Ukraine and protested any uncooperative response. It doesn’t seem hard for Russia to announce to the world “hey, we need to coordinate opening these gates or we could have a serious issue” so that when the dam does break, Ukraine bear responsibly.

At best, Russia appears to have allowed the dam to fail willfully or through negligence. At worst, they intended to destroy it and used explosives to accelerate the process.

Either way, Russia is responsible for this.
 
Arrgh. This is just nightmarish and vile.

Genocide

 
Arrgh. This is just nightmarish and vile.

Genocide

And yet I'm vilified when I call for the death of Putin. I think it's hard to say "if you do that it will be worse", the man is directly responsible for the genocide of thousands of people, put a target on his back and take him out.
 
Arrgh. This is just nightmarish and vile.

Genocide

I saw this and did not post it for the same reasons you put it behind two spoiler tags, but yes accurate description.

The Ukrainians will have their work cut out for them after the war hunting all the (surviving) people down who did this, Mossad-style, which they will.
 
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And yet I'm vilified when I call for the death of Putin. I think it's hard to say "if you do that it will be worse", the man is directly responsible for the genocide of thousands of people, put a target on his back and take him out.
Quit yer warmongering, you big meanie warmongerer you.
 
And yet I'm vilified when I call for the death of Putin. I think it's hard to say "if you do that it will be worse", the man is directly responsible for the genocide of thousands of people, put a target on his back and take him out.

My impression is that if Ukrainian intelligence thought they could do it, they absolutely would - regardless of the US’ or anyone else’s opinion. Budanov, head of military intelligence, seems as ruthless as he is capable. Apparently he still goes on missions himself which for a person in his position is nuts. He scares the shit of me and I ain’t even a Russian in his crosshairs.

The hatred of this invasion will last for generations. For some, that hatred will be icy and implacable.
 
And yet I'm vilified when I call for the death of Putin. I think it's hard to say "if you do that it will be worse", the man is directly responsible for the genocide of thousands of people, put a target on his back and take him out.

Sadly, it's not just Putin. The current extremely aggressive flavour of russian imperialism has been cultured for decades. You'd be shocked to learn how many average Russians see no problem with murdering Ukrainians for not willing to bend the knee.
 
Arrgh. This is just nightmarish and vile.

Whoa, I thought the teaser covered the worst bits, but the article got worse and worse.
While it‘s easy to blame Putin as the initiator, this kind of inhuman behavior must have been cultivated for decades. The first thought is to compare the perpetrators to animals, but no animal is that cruel.

One thing‘s for sure: No matter how this conflict ends, due to the actions of certain totally uncivilized Russians the whole Russian people will be ostracised for decades.
 
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