Russia-Ukraine
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So apparently Prigozhin simply backed down? It appears he accomplished nothing and goes to exile in Belarus and Wagner is effectively under MoD control. How? Why? This is all still very strange. Did he just lose his nerve? Is something else going on?
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I think Putin agreed to give Prigozhin a cooking show Vlad's Iron Chefs in exchange for calling off his troops. The losing contestants are never seen or heard from again.
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"Iron" ? Are you sure it is iron and not something tastier, like thallium or plutonium?
leman
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What a circus… so much noise for nothing. Everybody involved looks like a total fool, the only PR winner seem to be Lukashenko.
Well, at least they show down some helicopters and created some chaos. I doubt that all this will leave Russia in a strong position.
Well, at least they show down some helicopters and created some chaos. I doubt that all this will leave Russia in a strong position.
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Because they will be baked into pies.
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As part of the deal he struck with Belarus and Russia, I suspect Prigozhin will be offered a really nice apartment in a hi-rise building in Minsk. With large windows and doors that open onto a balcony with sweeping views of the city.
leman
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One particularly worrying possible interpretation of all this is that Prigozhin started this circus in order to get out of Ukraine, because he knows about immediate plans to blow up Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Although I am not sure this would explain all the bizarre chain of events we have witnessed.
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His people were almost all out already. This was about internal Russian politics.
That said what you wrote is still a concern for everyone left.
What the Hell Just Happened in Russia?
A perceptive Estonian military analyst breaks down Yevgeny Prigozhin’s abortive coup
newlinesmag.com
So no immunity for Wagner mutiny leaders as was supposedly promised, yes immunity for rank and file but if they want to remain armed they are either exiled to Belarus or they have to join the MoD. As everyone said even a day ago, this obviously isn’t over.
Other than that everyone making fun of Putin’s anticlimactic speech after hype-man Peskov (his press secretary) said it would determine the fate of Russia.
Other than that everyone making fun of Putin’s anticlimactic speech after hype-man Peskov (his press secretary) said it would determine the fate of Russia.
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Eric
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He looks weak in front font of the whole world, he better hope notobaby else wants to take a stab at him because they're pretty vulnerable right now.
Very vulnerable indeed. Operationally Ukraine could probably punch through Russian borders pretty easily, much easier than what they are trying to do. Unclear if strategically that would benefit them. Would Russia negotiate territory for territory? Would Ukraine want to defend the territory? How would Ukraine’s partners react? How would China? That Russia is convinced that Ukraine/NATO won’t attack beyond small raids is why their forces are so hollowed out actually defending Russia (which of course negates that obviously stupid justification for the war). But I’m sure Ukraine has thought about it.
I do wonder if just taking enough on the Eastern flank could help them get around the defensive lines, but I’m not in a position to know if that’s a good idea.
And others have pointed out that internally a popular general (if such a thing an exists in the Russian army) could pull off far more successfully what Wagner tried. Putin is personally very weak.
Well, it’s not like Prigozhin doesn’t have a flare for dramatics. In this instance quite dramatic.
As I understand, the military had decided to absorb Wagner- probably because they see Prigozhin as too powerful. I suspect Prighozin gambled on his “convoy of justice” persuading Putin into firing the military leaders with whom Prigozhin was a in a power struggle for at least a year now. I suspect Prighozin would not have made this move without some support of elites in Moscow. It’s not like this was planned late one evening and executed the next morning- this had to have been in the works for some time and Prighozins behavior in the past points directly to planting the seeds for this to happen. I don’t think the original plan- or short term plan anyways, was to unseat Putin.
If Putin welcomed Prighozin’s military mutiny and placed him in charge of the Russian forces, it makes Putin look very weak… perhaps something Prighozin neglected to considerer. But it’s probably not a decision he would make if he didn’t believe Putin’s grip on power is weakening. At the same time, exiling a treasonous mad man as part of a compromise also makes Putin look very weak. Especially when you consider this decision was probably made because Prighozin has significant power, would be difficult to access to kill, and his assassination could spark more internal conflict.
I don’t think this story is over though. I find it hard to believe Putin can allow Prighozin to live after this stunt. If the FSB attempts an assassination, Putin might find himself with a very big target on his back.
Wagner may not have the resources to actually execute an invasion of Moscow, but they could easily create an insurgency with guerrilla techniques. They do have some of the best trained soldiers and best equipment as far as ground forces go.
I’m all for an ongoing and messy power struggle between Prighozin and Putin, but between the two, I think I’d rather have Putin. Prighozin is even more brutal (ie allowing the heinous murder his own men by his own men) and I have less trust in his ability for sane decision making.
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My impression is that the whole thing could have been staged for some bizarre reason, it’s possible, but more likely in my mind, Russia’s War is a cluster, and the Wagner guy, Prig, got fed up. There was some statement made along the lines of, we can’t get ammo and are not going to stay here to die.
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