Russia-Ukraine

[dada_dave]

An amusing state of affairs:

 

[Cmaier]

This whole thing reminds me of the end of the Knights Templar.

 

[Huntn]

Russia is totally not a petro-mafia masquerading as a state.

That link a wall of text, can you give me a summary?

 

[Huntn]

An amusing state of affairs:

This is the double edged swords that those too eager for quick manipulative advantage seem to forget about…

 

[Huntn]

Prigozhin is a fool if he thinks this will be forgotten or forgiven

if intelligent, he certainly knows the danger he is in without some kind of insurance.

 

[dada_dave]

That link a wall of text, can you give me a summary?

Oh the 2020 thing? It’s only tangentially related, but in 2020 Ukrainian intelligence tricked a bunch of Wagner mercs into performing an operation in Ukraine with intent of nabbing them. The jumping off point was in Belarus. Belarus found out a bunch of Wagnerites were in Belarus at the same time, freaked the fuck out, and arrested them first, thinking they were there to kill Lukashenko or some other dirty deed. Eventually they let them go back to Russia once they realized that the Wagnerites had been fooled by Ukraine into going to Ukraine and were not there to do something bad in Belarus.

That was the previous major interaction between Belarus and Wagner and despite that apparently Lukashenko and Prigozhin have apparently known each other for years there’s obviously no trust there so … yeah this isn’t much of a long-term solution.

 

[dada_dave]

Plausible but unconfirmed information on the pre- and post-coup situation:



US IC “leaks”:

 

[dada_dave]

Big grain of salt, very unconfirmed, but if true big as Surovikin is one of the better Russian generals. So his arrest and removal would be a big blow.


His nickname is “General Armageddon” did a lot of shit in Syria

 

[dada_dave]

Big grain of salt, very unconfirmed, but if true big as Surovikin is one of the better Russian generals. So his arrest and removal would be a big blow.


His nickname is “General Armageddon” did a lot of shit in Syria

Starting to look potentially real …


This guy is responsible for the orderly retreat from Kherson and the building of the defensive works Ukraine now finds itself having to push through - amongst other things as I alluded to my last post (deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure in both Syria and Ukraine).

So if it’s true that he’s been taken off the board, this is a very good thing.

 

[dada_dave]

The current reports are that Surovikin is not in jail or been formally arrested, but has been out of contact since the mutiny and it is likely he is under investigation as he is an honorary Wagner member and may have been involved or aware of what was happening. His deputy has been fired.

Again these are all reports, confirmation is difficult to obtain.

 

[Yoused]

The lithobraking incidents continue. This time, a 28-year-old executive at Loko Bank. I think there might be a bit of a language problem,

Kristina was at her apartment on the eleventh floor with her friend, 34-year-old Andrei. He told authorities Kristina invited him for a drink and chat but at some point, around 3am she went out to the balcony and fell out of the window.

or she had a really fancy balcony, with windows.

 

[dada_dave]

The lithobraking incidents continue. This time, a 28-year-old executive at Loko Bank. I think there might be a bit of a language problem,



or she had a really fancy balcony, with windows.

Someone mentioned a joke that the next Death of Stalin type movie should feature a prominent Russian actually accidentally falling out a window and the various competing security services falling over themselves trying to figure out which one of them gets to claim credit for it or turn around and blame the others if they weren’t supposed to die.

 

[Yoused]

The Russians are sidling carefully away from Enherodar and the Zaporizhzha nuclear power plant. There are reports of preperatory sabotage. Prepare to witness another nuclear accident in Ukraine.

If the plant were to have a meltdown (or boom-boom "accident"), the typical wind patterns over the region would carry any airborne particulates over the Russian-claimed Donbas area, Rostov-on-Don and toward Volgograd (possibly leading to Caspian Sea contamination. Depending on the weather, it could in theory reach Vladdy's favorite dacha near Sochi.

 

[Cmaier]

The Russians are sidling carefully away from Enherodar and the Zaporizhzha nuclear power plant. There are reports of preperatory sabotage. Prepare to witness another nuclear accident in Ukraine.

That would be very “interesting,” as there has been whispering that NATO would consider that an attack on the alliance (due to radiation not staying put).

 

[cbum]

whispering that NATO would consider that an attack on the alliance

and then what?
I guess it would depend on the scale of nuclear contamination, but given prior russian "miscalculations" with explosives (like the dam), the risk of carrying this nonsense out seems astronomical.

A more rational explanation (I know..., not that likely) would be that the Russians are increasingly on shaky ground in that area and may decide to vacate the reactor instead of risking a real firefight next to cooling nuclear waste.

 

[Yoused]

Glory to Breakfast!

"ZelenskyOs" cereal provides charitable relief to Ukrainians.

 

[dada_dave]

While an lot of analysis indicates that the Russian sabotage of the ZPP wouldn’t be as bad as Chernobyl, beyond whatever radioactive fallout occurs, they can effectively deny use of the reactor to Ukraine post war by damaging it. Pre-war it provided massive power to Ukraine and would be critical to their future recovery. So should it look like Ukraine will liberate the territory the Russians would have every incentive to blow it.

 

[Cmaier]

While an lot of analysis indicates that the Russian sabotage of the ZPP wouldn’t be as bad as Chernobyl, beyond whatever radioactive fallout occurs, they can effectively deny use of the reactor to Ukraine post war by damaging it. Pre-war it provided massive power to Ukraine and would be critical to their future recovery. So should it look like Ukraine will liberate the territory the Russians would have every incentive to blow it.

Except that the radiation won’t just hover there - it will blow over Europe, and there has been some muttering that this might be considered an attack on NATO that would trigger Article 5.

 

[dada_dave]

Except that the radiation won’t just hover there - it will blow over Europe, and there has been some muttering that this might be considered an attack on NATO that would trigger Article 5.

I’ve heard that too, but without a clear signal of such and if the Russians are retreating, losing the likelihood of them deciding it is worth goes up dramatically.

(Also worth noting that a lot of the radiation would likely blow into southwest Russia but they’d probably still do it)

 

[Yoused]

Also worth noting that a lot of the radiation would likely blow into southwest Russia but they’d probably still do it

Vlad sacrificing the lives of Russians? He would never do that! (More importantly, Vlad does not want to see his dacha near Sochi contaminated.)