Russia-Ukraine

[yaxomoxay]

I'm afraid that is the most likely scenario. This is why it's so crucial that the world stands together in deterring Putin from doing it.

I think that at this point the problem is that no matter what, if the West intervenes militarily on the soil or sky over Ukraine, the war can and will extend to other countries.

 

[Arkitect]

I worry a bit about what Russia will do next. Let’s say their ground forces are unable to advance and take Kyiv. Can they afford the embarrassment of leaving without taking Kyiv? Will they siege and bombard the city from the air for weeks/months until they can take it? If they start heavily bombing civilians from the air, will the West create a no-fly zone?

The will keep on bombing. Putin will not — he cannot — turn back without winning — or being defeated.

But, it is hilarious (and wonderfully cheeky, - what chutzpah! - and wonderfully confident) to take the online war to the Russians in such a way; they have been so busy threatening others that they are utterly nonplussed when a political leader in a city under armed assault responds in such a manner.

It - if only for a short while - must have unsettled and shocked Moscow.

Actually, I think it inevitable - to my mind, the only reaining question is how soon it wil occur; whatever about commerce, public opinion (which political elites are answerable to in democracies) and the growing horror of the sheer viciousness of the Russian assault, and the conflict in Ukraine, will demand that this step be taken.

True. Perhaps inevitable, but… I still think it is going to take a long time. I am just not very gung-ho about the global response so far.

 

[SuperMatt]

I'm afraid that is the most likely scenario. This is why it's so crucial that the world stands together in deterring Putin from doing it.

NATO should create a no-fly zone immediately if that happens. We saw that Russia was more than happy to help Syria bomb its own schools and hospitals for months/years. They would have no problem doing it to the “drug addicts” in Ukraine.

 

[yaxomoxay]

NATO should create a no-fly zone immediately if that happens. We saw that Russia was more than happy to help Syria bomb its own schools and hospitals for months/years. They would have no problem doing it to the “drug addicts” in Ukraine.

To create a no-fly zone you’d have to be ready to shoot down Russian planes. Which could extend the conflict.

 

[SuperMatt]

I think that at this point the problem is that no matter what, if the West intervenes militarily on the soil or sky over Ukraine, the war can and will extend to other countries.

I read an article in Vox about how the threat of nuclear war is being wielded by Putin to keep other countries from interfering. The idea of nuclear weapons deterring war? It’s more like it deters one nuclear power from standing against another even if they are massacring their neighbors.

 

[SuperMatt]

To create a no-fly zone you’d have to be ready to shoot down Russian planes. Which could extend the conflict.

I agree. However, it could be a step that shows resolve and opposition without ramping up (too far) the risk of nuclear war.

 

[yaxomoxay]

I read an article in Vox about how the threat of nuclear war is being wielded by Putin to keep other countries from interfering. The idea of nuclear weapons deterring war? It’s more like it deters one nuclear power from standing against another even if they are massacring their neighbors.

While I can’t foresee a full blown nuclear war, the use of small tactical nukes is not impossible imo.

 

[Zoidberg]

Thanks. But I'm not holding my breath.

That’s always a good attitude to have these days. I’ll edit my post to add some emphasis on the “apparently”

 

[User.45]

While I can’t foresee a full blown nuclear war, the use of small tactical nukes is not impossible imo.

That still meets the criteria of nuclear war.

I think that at this point the problem is that no matter what, if the West intervenes militarily on the soil or sky over Ukraine, the war can and will extend to other countries.

Agree. The only way this situation won't spiral out is Putin getting ousted.

 

[yaxomoxay]

 

[Huntn]

I read an article in Vox about how the threat of nuclear war is being wielded by Putin to keep other countries from interfering. The idea of nuclear weapons deterring war? It’s more like it deters one nuclear power from standing against another even if they are massacring their neighbors.

Cutting Russia off from SWIFT a "matter of days" - euro zone central banker

A decision to cut Russia off from the global SWIFT payment system will be taken in a matter of days, the governor of a central bank within the euro zone told Reuters on Saturday.

www.reuters.com

Note, not an official decision (hence my wording), but still leaked from the horse’s mouth

Analogy
One neighbor sends thugs to invade another neighbor‘s home to trash and murder it’s occupants with a few escaping out the back door, ideally the perp would be brought to justice by the rest of the neighbors.

Complicating the situation, the mastermind perp sits at home with a nuke in his basement while his henchman do the trashing. So as hostages to this malfeasance, the other neighbors don’t want to see the neighborhood go up in a mushroom cloud, and will resist a frontal assault unless the perp goes after any of the homes belonging to the Neighborhood Co-defense Association. This is their See You In Hell line in the sand because they have some nukes of their own.

But if the idea is to resist, better than nothing is to shut off the bad guy‘s access to commerce and social activities. We don’t want this guy in our shops or showing up at our garden parties, while hoping in frustration he’s not going to threaten Armageddon any way.

Thinking he has calculated the NCDA limits as to what the neighbors will accept, and unless the bad guy is completely deranged and wants to live, with the resulting commerce and social pain, difficulty feeding the family and inability to pay his mortgage, this might eventually make the other family members rise up and depose him.

In the mean time, the neighbors set up lodging and assistance for the refugees.

———
During my video game activities, I have two games I am active in one from Russia (Metro Exodus) and the other from Belarus (World of Warships) and I have to keep telling myself that not all Russians are bad. My impression is that Belarus is aligned with Mother Russia.

 

[Huntn]

While I can’t foresee a full blown nuclear war, the use of small tactical nukes is not impossible imo.

Not impossible, but I don’t see a circumstance in a straight up Russian-Ukraine fight were one would be needed by Russia. Now Ukraine, that might be different, if they had any in their arsenal, but still you would be trashing your own country by doing so, but not an impossible decision if one is desperate enough, if you feel you are staring at death anyway. Now transfer this scenario to a desperate Russian leader if it ever comes down to that, which is very scary territory.

 

[Macky-Mac]

This US Army Blackhawk apparently went all the way to Medyka just inside Poland's border with Ukraine without shutting off their civilian transponder as they got closer. They have been hanging out around there ever since the invasion started and I don't think they are doing anything particularly interesting, but they have usually shut off the civilian transponder long before getting this close to the border. I wonder if this means they are now less worried about Russian interference this far to the west, compared to yesterday.

View attachment 11996

Although I will admit that following this war on flightradar24 is a bit like reading tea leaves.

I suspect it does indeed mean they aren't currently worried about Russian interference this far west. Leaving the civilian transponder on might have been a mistake by the crew....or it might have been deliberate.

After yesterday's NATO meeting, which was also attended by representatives of Sweden, Finland and the EU, it seems clear that military supplies are currently being sent to Ukraine......so maybe the helicopter was observing some of the transfer?

from Al Jazeera's reporting;

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Friday that the alliance was deploying thousands of combat-ready troops to Ukraine’s neighbours, as well as continuing to send weapons to Ukraine including air defences after Russia’s attack....

....Some of the 30 NATO allies also announced the types of weapons they would supply Ukraine, Stoltenberg said, without giving specific details....

 

[yaxomoxay]

Italian news reporting Russian troops close to the Ukraine-Poland border.

 

[yaxomoxay]

A few months ago I purchased a beautiful handmade komboskini from a guy in Kiev, which I use almost every day. I contacted him, and I am glad to report that he’s fine.

 

[Deleted member 215]

Very interesting take on the reasons for the invasion, including some points not yet discussed in this thread:

 

[Huntn]

A few months ago I purchased a beautiful handmade komboskini from a guy in Kiev, which I use almost every day. I contacted him, and I am glad to report that he’s fine.

Is he still in Kiev?

 

[Huntn]

Very interesting take on the reasons for the invasion, including some points not yet discussed in this thread:

Summary please.

 

[Macky-Mac]

Italian news reporting Russian troops close to the Ukraine-Poland border.

Certainly the Russians would be expected to try to seize border control....perhaps the helicopter (that MarkusL reported) was looking for these Russian troops that were reported. There are 4 NATO countries that border Ukraine so it'll take a lot of Russian troops to actually close the border.

Meanwhile, having previously said it wouldn't supply weapons to Ukraine, it appears the Germany has shifted its position. From The Guardian's ongoing coverage;

Germany approved the delivery of 400 RPGs to Ukraine by the Netherlands, marking a shift in policy from its previous position of not shipping weapons.

and Al Jazeera's coverage;

Berlin discussing export of RPGs to Ukraine via a third country​

Germany’s government is in talks over approving the delivery of 400 rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs) to Ukraine via a third country but no final decision on whether to do so has been taken, the country’s defence ministry says.

edit;
Germany to provide more military aid to Ukraine.....more from the Guardian's ongoing coverage;

Germany will send 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 stinger missiles to Ukraine, the German chancellor said on Saturday.
Olaf Scholz said the Russian invasion marked a “turning point”, and added: “It is our duty to do our best to help Ukraine defend against the invading army of Putin.”

and regarding SWIFT;

Germany has suggested it could support banning Russia’s access to Swift, the world’s main international payments network, after previously opposing the measure.

 

[Deleted member 215]

Summary please.

1) Russia fears Ukraine joining NATO could mean NATO forces help Ukraine retake Crimea, which gives Russia little defense in the Black Sea and causes them to lose control over oil drilling in and around the peninsula. 1b) Ukraine has cut off Crimea’s water supply, Crimea is drought-prone, and Russia intends to restore the flow from the Dnieper. 2) Ukraine has huge oil reserves in the east and west that haven’t been drilled. Ukraine could become #2 petro-state in Europe if Western oil companies help Ukraine drill that oil and gas, making Europe much less reliant on Russian oil and gas.

But I encourage anyone interested to watch it for themselves.