Russia-Ukraine

[User.168]

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[Huntn]

1) Russia fears Ukraine joining NATO could mean NATO forces help Ukraine retake Crimea, which gives Russia little defense in the Black Sea and causes them to lose control over oil drilling in and around the peninsula. 1b) Ukraine has cut off Crimea’s water supply, Crimea is drought-prone, and Russia intends to restore the flow from the Dnieper. 2) Ukraine has huge oil reserves in the east and west that haven’t been drilled. Ukraine could become #2 petro-state in Europe if Western oil companies help Ukraine drill that oil and gas, making Europe much less reliant on Russian oil and gas.

But I encourage anyone interested to watch it for themselves.

Thanks! I’ll watch it later today…

 

[Huntn]

No fuel and lost behind enemy lines: How Russia's mighty army got bogged down in Ukraine — The Telegraph

Casualty numbers thought to be higher than Russia had expected with hundreds of tanks and other armoured vehicles destroyed

apple.news

This is interesting to me, purely because when I was discussing the possibility of Russian invasion a few weeks ago on another forum we touched upon this subject. Cool initial attack plans are cool. Fighting a war and keeping the supply lines going is the difficult part. Some people were speculating whether Russia would have enough money and be able to support an ongoing war effort beyond a few weeks, if Ukraine didn’t immediately concede.

I don’t think it will be enough, but I hope Ukraine turns into a hell hole for Vlad.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

No fuel and lost behind enemy lines: How Russia's mighty army got bogged down in Ukraine — The Telegraph

Casualty numbers thought to be higher than Russia had expected with hundreds of tanks and other armoured vehicles destroyed

apple.news

This is interesting to me, purely because when I was discussing the possibility of Russian invasion a few weeks ago on another forum we touched upon this subject. Cool initial attack plans are cool. Fighting a war and keeping the supply lines going is the difficult part. Some people were speculating whether Russia would have enough money and be able to support an ongoing war effort beyond a few weeks, if Ukraine didn’t immediately concede.

They have more than enough money (and can call on vast reserve funds).

However, the old tired but true military cliché - "no plan survives contact with the enemy" - may offer an explanation, as can arrogance, hubris, and a misguided belief that Ukrainians would welcome being "liberated" from their democracy by an invasion force, a hail of ballistic missiles, endless lies, and wave after wave of vicious and vengeful propaganda.

For those who prefer facts to theory, I might remind readers of Russia's (well, it was the USSR at the time) disastrous (and enormously embarrassing) Winter War with Finland in the winter 1939-1940.

Moreover, to describe the current leadership of Ukraine as neo-Nazis is not just wrong, and historically illiterate, it is risible; besides, - and this is interesting - Mr Zelensky is Jewish.

 

[User.45]

They have more than enough money (and can call on vast reserve funds).

However, the old tired but true military cliché - "no plan survives contact with te enemy" - may offer an explanation, as can arrogance, hubris, and a misguided belief that Ukrainians would welcome being "liberated" from their democracy by an invasion force, a hail of ballistic missiles, endless lies, and wave after wave of vicious and vengeful propaganda.

As the 20th century poet, Mike Tyson said, "everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouf."

For those who prefer facts to theory, I might remind readers of Russia's (well, it was the USSR at the time) disastrous (and enormously embarrassing) Winter War with Finland in the winter 1939-1940.

It does seem that Ukrainians dish it to Russia like the Finnish dished it to the USSR.

Moreover, to describe the current leadership of Ukraine as neo-Nazis is not just wrong, and historically illiterate, it is risible; besides, - and this is interesting - Mr Zelensky is Jewish.

Putin knew that replicating the German aggression in 1939, he'll be called a nazi, so the denazification slogan just intended to dampen and distract from the 1939 analogy.

 

[Eric]

As the 20th century poet, Mike Tyson said, "everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouf."

Sorry but I laughed harder at this than I should have, even scared my wife.

I also feel for Zelensky, they will take him out but he'll go down as a martyr and a man who stood by his people with no real help from the outside world. It's a sad way to go.

 

[User.45]

Sorry but I laughed harder at this than I should have, even scared my wife.

I also feel for Zelensky, they will take him out but he'll go down as a martyr and a man who stood by his people with no real help from the outside world. It's a sad way to go.

Zelenksy has been doing an outstanding job. Morale is super high and if he took off morale would have plummeted immediately. Instead we get this:

Ukraine Crisis - 'Putin Will Meet Hell' Says Former President Petro Poroshenko G... | Gfycat

Watch and share Ukraine Crisis - 'Putin Will Meet Hell' Says Former President Petro Poroshenko GIFs by deuxalpha on Gfycat

gfycat.com

(watch the guy on the left at ~3rd second; these people are not scared anymore)

 

[yaxomoxay]

Is he still in Kiev?

Yes.

 

[yaxomoxay]

Sorry but I laughed harder at this than I should have, even scared my wife.

Shit I lol’d too

I also feel for Zelensky, they will take him out but he'll go down as a martyr and a man who stood by his people with no real help from the outside world. It's a sad way to go.

Pope Francis called him to show support. Not much in the big order of things, but hopefully it will increase morale - and hope - a bit.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Roman Abramovich has handed over the "stewardship and care" of Chelsea football club (which he still owns) to a charitable foundation in a clear distancing act, one undoubtedy designed to defuse fan outrage over Ukraine, (which would have had an impact on Chelsea), and pre-empt any possible (if unlikely) negative actions by the football authorities.

And Poland, Romania and the Czech Republic have joined the Baltic states (and the UK) in banning Russian flights over the airspace, which is surely an inconvenience.

The thing here, of course, is that we can expect Russia to retaliate and reciprocate, for it is, of course, by far the largest country on the planet, which will mean longer flights, and higher fares, and probably a reduction in air travel as some routes may well become no longer viable.

Re SWIFT, the reports I am seeing from Germany suggest that the German authorities are inching closer to seeking to curtail, or restrict, or limit, Russia's access to the SWIFT system. That is still not a complete exclusion, but I would expect to see restrictions - and limits on access - imposed over the coming days, at the very least.

 

[Eric]

Shit I lol’d too

Pope Francis called him to show support. Not much in the big order of things, but hopefully it will increase morale - and hope - a bit.

TBH it feels like we're all hanging him out to dry with an "atta boy". He has shown himself to be a standup courageous man, it's a shame to see it play out like this.

 

[yaxomoxay]

TBH it feels like we're all hanging him out to dry with an "atta boy". He has shown himself to be a standup courageous man, it's a shame to see it play out like this.

Yes, this is what we’re doing more or less. Evidently, We have been doing it for years, just not in plain sight.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Actions can have consequences:

A small - but growing - number of European countries (the Baltic states, Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Romania and the UK) have denied access to their airspace to Russian airlines.

And a report tonight suggests that this is just beginning to bite.

(From Twitter, and the Washington Post): The chairman of Russia’s lower house of parliament had his plane turned back mid-flight by Sweden and then Finland, making him the first top Russian official to face Europe’s denial of airspace permissions in response to the invasion.

 

[yaxomoxay]

Certainly the Russians would be expected to try to seize border control....perhaps the helicopter (that MarkusL reported) was looking for these Russian troops that were reported. There are 4 NATO countries that border Ukraine so it'll take a lot of Russian troops to actually close the border.

Meanwhile, having previously said it wouldn't supply weapons to Ukraine, it appears the Germany has shifted its position. From The Guardian's ongoing coverage;

and Al Jazeera's coverage;


edit;
Germany to provide more military aid to Ukraine.....more from the Guardian's ongoing coverage;


and regarding SWIFT;

Call me cynic, but this race to send weapons to Ukraine seems a bit too late and some sort of BS aimed more at chilling domestic politics than actually help Ukraine.

These shipments are massive. Russia has air supremacy. There is no way that once in Ukrankan soil Russia won’t destroy most of them. Hope I am wrong.

 

[Zoidberg]

Call me cynic, but this race to send weapons to Ukraine seems a bit too late and some sort of BS aimed more at chilling domestic politics than actually help Ukraine.

These shipments are massive. Russia has air supremacy. There is no way that once in Ukrankan soil Russia won’t destroy most of them. Hope I am wrong.

I do agree –to a point– with your cynical observation, but regarding the other thing, just last night, the US was offering Zelenskyy a ride to get out (implying they could still fly in and out), and Russia lost at least another helicopter and two fighter jets this afternoon, in addition to a second plane packed with paratroopers earlier. And that's in the regions they have the most control over. So while they are the ones flying around, they do not have air supremacy (yet). The weapons shipments are also believed to include AA weapons (there were pictures floating around of Avengers – basically eight Stingers slapped on a Humvee– being flown to Poland this past week) which will make it harder for the Russians to stay in the air.

Make no mistake, I'm not optimistic: I believe the president will probably not make it another week, and the Russians will attempt to raze down everything they find on their path, but up until now it was supposed to be the "easy" part where they threw the Ukrainian army into disarray, and that clearly hasn't worked well. What comes now is going to be reminiscent of Sarajevo, but potentially much worse, given the size of the cities and of the Russian forces.

For reference, these are the weapons that the Russians are now moving into Ukraine:

 

[Macky-Mac]

Call me cynic, but this race to send weapons to Ukraine seems a bit too late and some sort of BS aimed more at chilling domestic politics than actually help Ukraine.

These shipments are massive. Russia has air supremacy. There is no way that once in Ukrankan soil Russia won’t destroy most of them. Hope I am wrong.

I agree about this aid being "a bit too late" and that in many cases it's because of concern about public sentiment. Germany's about face is a particularly obvious example.

Russia certainly expected to immediately gain air supremacy by now, but from news reports, they seem to still be struggling to achieve it. If they have it, I'd be expecting to see a lot more news about massive bombing.

And if you recall, Russia had clear air supremacy in Afghanistan back in the 1980s but it didn't win the war for them

All that said, I'm not optimistic about the situation.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Call me cynic, but this race to send weapons to Ukraine seems a bit too late and some sort of BS aimed more at chilling domestic politics than actually help Ukraine.

These shipments are massive. Russia has air supremacy. There is no way that once in Ukrankan soil Russia won’t destroy most of them. Hope I am wrong.

Actually, I think it is a bit more nuanced than that.

Yes, outraged public opinion matters (these are democracies, after all), but I would also argue that much of the political leadership in Europe (those who who have been neither bought nor bullied by Russian interests) find themselves genuinely shocked as they had never, ever, thought that things would come to this.

 

[Zoidberg]

Actually, I think it is a bit more nuanced than that.

Yes, outraged public opinion matters (these are democracies, after all), but I would also argue that much of the political leadership in Europe (those who who have been neither bought nor bullied by Russian interests) find themselves genuinely shocked as they had never, ever, thought that things would come to this.

Yes, but.... are they not supposed to be experts working with proper intelligence and diplomatic channels? How come they don't constantly contemplate the different range of possible outcomes and draft plans, contingencies and agreements to respond to each well in advance? This has been months in the making, and it's been obvious for a while that Putin was going to invade at least part of Ukraine. Why are they still debating which sanctions to impose like it took them by surprise?

 

[Cmaier]

Yes, but.... are they not supposed to be experts working with proper intelligence and diplomatic channels? How come they don't constantly contemplate the different range of possible outcomes and draft plans, contingencies and agreements to respond to each? This has been months in the making, and it's been obvious for a while that Putin was going to invade at least part of Ukraine. Why are they still debating which sanctions to impose like it took them by surprise?

Politicians always want to follow the wind of popular opinion nowadays.

 

[Zoidberg]

Politicians always want to follow the wind of popular opinion nowadays.

That I know, but I'm appalled by their lack of responsiveness.

To be fair, I have been pleasantly surprised by the relative unanimity in the international response to the invasion, I'm complaining about the lack of coordination in the actual retaliation.