Russia-Ukraine

[Arkitect]

No news there and at this point, it's mainly irrelevant because we are past the times of rational thoughts and proportional action with Putin.

Kharkiv holds. Kiev holds. Internet holds. Supplies coming for Ukrainians. Russia has supply problems and will allegedly run out in less than a week. SWIFT ban. International consensus against Russia's actions.




Putin's strongman status is indeed his weakness. If he's not winning, he's losing and he is losing big time right now.

This puts it quite well…

 

[Eric]

Good. Let the entire country go bankrupt and let’s see how long Putin maintains his support.

As one person put it on Reddit, not sure how accurate this is but seems plausible.

This is from the link posted at the end
https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1497858150573170688/

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Two thoughtful articles in today's Observer (more or less the Sunday edition of the Guardian) by former Attorney General Dominic Grieve (one of the few from a Tory background to be informed by an ethical perspective), and by Vladimir Sorokin, which are both very much worth reading.

And - on the possible reach of "soft power" sanctions, the International Judo Federation has suspended Mr Putin's honorary president (and ambassador) status.

This will sting; long before he served with the KGB, long before he was well known in any capacity, indeed even in his student days, Mr Putin was genuinely exceptionally talented at judo, and, as a young man, was thought to be just at - or around - or close to, international status - he was ranked in the top 10-14 in the country (and this was a country the size of the USSR) - and was a judo champion in his native St Petersburg.

 

[User.45]

This puts it quite well…

View attachment 12076

Exactly. And that's the issue with threats. They only work if the threatened believe their decisions can alter the chances of the threats being realized.

 

[User.45]

And - on the possible reach of "soft power" sanctions, the International Judo Federation has suspended Mr Putin's honorary president (and ambassador) status.

Ippon!

 

[User.45]

Keeps piling on:

Britain’s foreign secretary, Liz Truss, said on Sunday that she would support Britons who want to go to Ukraine to take up arms to resist the Russian invasion, in an intervention likely to escalate tensions with Moscow.

When asked in a BBC interview about a call from President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine for foreigners to join his country’s fight against Russia, Ms. Truss said those resisting the Russians were “fighting for freedom and democracy not just for Ukraine but for the whole of Europe.”

Asked specifically whether she would support Britons going to Ukraine to fight, she responded: “Absolutely, if that is what they want do to.”

Russia-Ukraine War: What Happened on Day 4 of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine (Published 2022)

Fierce Ukrainian resistance continued to keep Russian forces from gaining control of key cities. World opposition to the Russian invasion hardened, with the E.U. banning Russian aircraft from its airspace.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Herdfan]

So did Ukraine actually destroy their nuclear weapons like they were supposed to in 1994?

Zelensky seems much more level-headed than Putin for sure. But if Russian forces start to take over and there is no good end for Ukraine, if they have them does he punish Russia on the way out?

 

[SuperMatt]

So did Ukraine actually destroy their nuclear weapons like they were supposed to in 1994?

Zelensky seems much more level-headed than Putin for sure. But if Russian forces start to take over and there is no good end for Ukraine, if they have them does he punish Russia on the way out?

Are you completely insane?

 

[Herdfan]

Are you completely insane?

I hope not.

 

[GermanSuplex]

I fail to see an end game scenario where Putin doesn't end up dead, imprisoned, or in exile (will probably have to be a island fortress because I can't think of any country who would keep him safe). He's made his intentions clear. It doesn't end here and he won't "my bad" it. It's doubtful, but I hope this comes at the hand of the Russian people because that would probably be the least casualty scenario. Also, if it doesn't come from the Russian people then they are going to be in a world of hurt for decades. The trust is gone.

Lots of good articles and discussions around the internet explaining why this may be the beginning of the end for Putin. He has his supporters, but even some of them draw the line at killing innocent people for virtually no reason. Putin has drawn the ire of the world… I think he had more to lose than gain. This is a vanity project.

 

[yaxomoxay]

Good. Let the entire country go bankrupt and let’s see how long Putin maintains his support.

I am not sure a bankrupt Russia is what we need tbh. After 20 years of Putin, it would become the perfect scenario for a military coup and the installation of an ever harsher regime.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Keeps piling on:

Russia-Ukraine War: What Happened on Day 4 of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine (Published 2022)

Fierce Ukrainian resistance continued to keep Russian forces from gaining control of key cities. World opposition to the Russian invasion hardened, with the E.U. banning Russian aircraft from its airspace.

www.nytimes.com

Yes and no.

Last night, it transpired that the UK govt (in a tweet since removed) were insisting that any Ukrainian refugees seeking refuge, or sanctuary, in the UK would still be subject to the (post-Brexit) visa regime of the United Kingdom, and that exceptions would not be made for Ukraine; the Foreign Office advised them that they could apply for visas in "the normal way" - in other words, apply through the seasonal workers' scheme (as is done by seasonal fruit pickers, for example).

Indeed, there were reports of visas being denied to Ukrainian spouses of Britons.

Now, two things: The UK is no longer a member of the EU (and so is not present at the meetings where whatever decisions are taken get taken; this means that while EU decisions have no effect on the UK, conversely, the UK has no input into EU decisions), and worse, may be viewed (not unreasonably) as a not entirely reliable partner, partly on account of threatening to tear up treaties, and partly on account of the pernicious influence of the Londonograd laundromat.

However, I would expect the position of the Foreign Office re granting visas to Ukrainians (or abolishing the requirement for Ukrainians to seek - and be granted - visas before being admitted to the UK) to change over the coming days.



Needless to say, the reaction (on Twitter) was explosive.

 

[yaxomoxay]

Exactly. And that's the issue with threats. They only work if the threatened believe their decisions can alter the chances of the threats being realized.

That’s why I mentioned nukes yesterday. I don’t exclude Putin’s use of tactical nukes.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

This puts it quite well…

View attachment 12076

Yes, this is ominous, a horrible case of doubling down.

 

[yaxomoxay]

Yes, this is ominous, a horrible case of doubling down.

“Ukraine delenda est”, I guess.

To be honest what he is doing is not unexpected.

 

[yaxomoxay]

Looks like Zelensky accepted a meeting with Russia, without conditions. I guess Zelensky will sign his surrender.

 

[Arkitect]

“Ukraine delenda est”, I guess.

To be honest what he is doing is not unexpected.

Sure, it is not unexpected, but we can still be shocked by it. That is different from being surprised by it.

Looks like Zelensky accepted a meeting with Russia, without conditions. I guess Zelensky will sign his surrender.

I wouldn't bet on it.

 

[User.45]

Yes and no.

Last night, it transpired that the UK govt (in a tweet since removed) were insisting that any Ukrainian refugees seeking refuge, or sanctuary, in the UK would still be subject to the (post-Brexit) visa regime of the United Kingdom, and that exceptions would not be made for Ukraine; the Foreign Office advised them that they could apply for visas in "the normal way" and that it was possible to apply for the sort of temporary work visas of the sort that people seeking work as fruit pickers are invited to fill out.

Indeed, there were reports of visas being denied to Ukrainian spouses of Britons.

Now, two things: The UK is no longer a member of the EU (and so is not present at the meetings where whatever decisions are taken get taken; this means that while EU decisions have no effect on the UK, conversely, the UK has no input into EU decisions), and worse, may be viewed (not unreasonably) as a not entirely reliable partner, partly on account of threatening to tear up treaties, and partly on account of the pernicious influence of the Londonograd laundromat.

However, I would expect the position of the Foreign Office re granting visas to Ukrainians (or abolishing the requirement for Ukrainians to seek - and be granted - visas before being admitted to the UK) to change over the coming days.



Needless to say, the reaction (on Twitter) was explosive.

I don't share those concerns. Ukrainian refugees appearing in the UK en masse would take longer than public opinion shaping further to support Ukraine.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

I am not sure a bankrupt Russia is what we need tbh. After 20 years of Putin, it would become the perfect scenario for a military coup and the installation of an ever harsher regime.

Agreed.

Rather, a Russia with a strong and stable middle class (and one has been growing over the past twenty five years) is what we need.

It will be interesting to see whether elements of the elite (not just the security siloviki, but the military and oligarchic elites) - either in Russia itself, or, (more safely) abroad, begin to distance themselves from Mr Putin.

Interestingly, the co-founder of Alfa Bank, (which has been sanctioned to the extent that it cannot issue shares, and cannot finace debt on international money markets), the Ukrainian born, Mikhail Fridman, (as reported in both the Telegraph, and more credibly, the FT) - the FT quotes him as follows:

"Mikhail Fridman, one of Russia’s richest men, said the war in Ukraine was a “tragedy” and called on the “bloodshed” to end after President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of the country."

And Oleg Deripaska - the founder and former owner of Rusal - once, reputedly, Russia's richest individual, - also called for peace, writing, "Peace is very important! Negotiations must begin at once!" (also quoted in the FT).

Okay, Fridman is based in London, while Deripaska has Cypriot citizenship (while Abramovich, who used to be close to Deripaska, and, for the record, - who is also Jewish - has Israeli citizenship) have the space and the physical, geographical distance to be able to voice their thoughts; Still, it is significant that some of the oligarchs are now distancing themselves (one may be unkind enough to suspect financial motives for this conversion to the virtues of peace, but war is not good for commerce, while enforced isolation and policed pariah status are even less so).

 

[User.45]

Looks like Zelensky accepted a meeting with Russia, without conditions. I guess Zelensky will sign his surrender.

Sources? Never mind.

“We agreed that the Ukrainian delegation would meet with the Russian delegation without preconditions on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, near the Pripyat River,” Mr. Zelensky announced on his official Telegram channel, describing a phone call Sunday with President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko of Belarus.
Mr. Lukashenko “has taken responsibility for ensuring that all planes, helicopters and missiles stationed on Belarusian territory remain on the ground during the Ukrainian delegation’s travel, talks and return,” Mr. Zelensky continued.
Details of exactly when the meeting would take place or who would participate were not immediately clear. Mr. Zelensky earlier on Sunday had rejected holding talks in Belarus — as Russia has been demanding — because Russia staged part of its invasion from Belarus after amassing troops in the country for months. But Mr. Zelensky’s stance shifted after he held a phone call with Mr. Lukashenko, who is Mr. Putin’s closest international ally.
The Russian delegation, led by a former Russian culture minister, Vladimir Medinsky, is already in Belarus.

As fighting rages, Zelensky authorizes talks with Russian officials. (Published 2022)

www.nytimes.com

This will be interesting. Why would Zelensky surrender now?