Russia-Ukraine

How about a false flag operation then, with “Ukraine” attacking the Russian delegation or Belarus before the meeting?
There would still be too much suspicion on Putin and friends. I don’t think that he’s that crazy. It would also mean the end of all diplomatic ties for Russia, they’d end up in a worse situation than North Korea.
 
Killing Zelensky during a diplomatic meeting would be a very serious breach of all diplomatic rules, and customs, and a serious breach on how foreign politics is done. I don’t think that even Hitler or Stalin attempted that.

If Zelensky were to be killed during the talks, I’d expect no less than WW3.
But kidnapped and subsequently murdered (with a disgusting judicial fig leaf) is entirely possible, (which is why I referred to the fate of Imre Nagy - who, in 1956 was the legitimate Prime Minister of Hungary, for, he was kidnapped at gunpoint (by the Russians/Soviets) having just left the Yugoslav embassy, while accompanied by Yugoslav diplomats - who themselves were beaten up - taken to the Soviet Union (i.e. Russia), put on trial - which the Russians couldn't engineer into a "show trial" and subsequently executed, which, in fact, in this case, means murdered).

Bear in mind that this is a country which gave orders for the murder (in the UK) of Alexander Litvinenko, and - also in the UK - attempted to poison the Skripals.

If Mr Putin has persuaded himself - yes, it is delusional, deranged, demented - but, if he has persuaded himself that Ukraine is an illegitimate country, one that should always have been a part of Russia, then he will also have had no difficulty in persuading himself that Ukrainians should be subject to Russian legal authority, and subsequent legal sanctions.

Personally, I'd prefer to have third parties - and independent witnesses - present at all times, during any such talks, or negotiations.
 
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But kidnapped and subsequently murdered (with a disgusting judicial fig leaf) is entirely possible, (which is why I referred to the fate of Imre Nagy - he was kidnapped at gunpoint (by the Russians/Soviets) having just left the Yugoslav embassy, while accompanied by Yugoslav diplomats - who themselves were beaten up - taken to the Soviet Union (i.e. Russia), put on trial - which the Russiand couldn't engineer into a "show trial" and executed, which, in fact, means murdered).

Bear in mind that this is a country which gave orders for the murder (in the UK) of Alexander Litvinenko, and - also in the UK - attempted to poison the Skripals.

If Mr Putin has persuaded himself - yes, it is delusional, deranged, demented - but, if he has persuaded himself that Ukraine is an illegitimate country, one that should always have been a part of Russia, then he will also have had no difficulty in persuading himself that Ukrainians should be subject to Russian legal authority, and subsequent legal sanctions.

Personally, I'd prefer to have third parties - and independent witnesses - present at all times, during any such talks, or negotiations.
I don’t disagree with it, but killing the head of another government is not the same as killing an important politician with government roles, a diplomat, or a defector. It’s a whole different level.
 
I admit my ignorance here.
By the Soviets in (off the top of my head, I don’t remember the dates) the 40s, the early 50s, and as recently as the mid 90s.

(With the caveat that it was not the President of Ukraine, obviously, but still, it was the person who went to negotiate in good faith).
 
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There would still be too much suspicion on Putin and friends. I don’t think that he’s that crazy. It would also mean the end of all diplomatic ties for Russia, they’d end up in a worse situation than North Korea.

If he is prepared to attack all of Ukraine, including Lviv, which was never, not in any universe, or realm, real, imagined or pure fantasy, remotely Russian, prepared to threaten Finland and Sweden (two sovereign, independent, democratic states), prepared to threaten the world with nuclear weapons or nuclear contamination by radiation, I would argue that he is capable of doing anything.
 
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If he is prepared to attack all of Ukraine, including Lviv, which was never, not in any universe, real, imagined or pure fantasy, Remotely Russian, prepared to threaten Finalnd and Sweden (two sovereign, independent, democratic states), prepared to threaten the world with nuclear weapons or nuclear contamination by radiation, I would argue that he is capable of doing anything.
Well… I hope I am right. I’d see as more probable a nuclear war than the murder of a head of state in that way.

At any rate, Europe better send Putin the message that if Zelensky catches a cold, troops will enter and defend Ukraine.
 
They killed heads of state during diplomatic maneuvers?
Their envoys, and in the 90s, they used the phone he used for the meeting to basically geolocate him and bomb him.

Whether it was the head of state or an envoy is irrelevant. When the kgb mafia asks for a meeting, you don’t trust their good faith.

For Putin, promises are made to be broken.
 
They killed heads of state during diplomatic maneuvers?
The Yugoslavs (Yugoslav diplomatic staff, who were genuinely neutral) had negotiated safe conduct for Imre Nagy, who was still the legitimate head of the government of Hungary, when he was kidnapped and subsequently murdered.

I've read the transcript of his "trial" and watched the video that was shot at the time; it is extraordinary.
 
The Yugoslavs (Yugoslav diplomatic staff, who were genuinely neutral) had negotiated safe conduct for Imre Nagy, who was still the legitimate head of government of Hungary, when he was kidnapped and subsequently murdered.

I've read the transcript of his "trial" and watched the video that was shot at the time; it is extraordinary.
I don’t want to derail the thread, but I guess I should read more about the trial as it seems quite interesting. I remember the Soviets doing some crappy stuff, but I didn’t remember this specific instance.
 
An unfortunate truth I've begun seeing pop up in articles this weekend.

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1497950573605228555/

As reality dawned, and with nowhere to turn, the 24-year-old, packed a bag and ran to the nearest underground train station for shelter, one of thousands of African students stranded in Ukraine during a Russian invasion, with no idea of how to escape.

"In a situation like this, you're on your own. You've got to find the best way to find refuge for yourself," he told Reuters by phone from the basement of a church where he eventually settled on Thursday night.

Cities under siege across Ukraine are home to tens of thousands of African students studying medicine, engineering and military affairs. Morocco, Nigeria and Egypt are among the top 10 countries with foreign students in Ukraine, together supplying over 16,000 students, according to the education ministry. Thousands of Indian students are also trying to flee.

What was meant to be a cheaper alternative to studying in Western Europe or the United States has turned overnight into a war zone as Russian tanks, planes and ships launch the biggest European invasion of another nation since World War Two.

Nigerian students trying to escape war-hit Ukraine have alleged that there is racial discrimination among evacuees trying to leave the country via neighbouring countries. Journalist Stephanie Hegarty of BBC published a series of tweets explaining the ordeal of the students. She said that a Nigerian medical student told her that while she was waiting to cross the border, the Ukrainian soldiers did not allow black people to cross and sent them back. She said, “They have to let ‘Ukrainians’ through first”.
Poland border force spokesperson had said they were allowing anyone to enter Poland from Ukraine. A similar problem was faced by Indian students stranded at the Poland-Ukraine border. Reportedly, the Indian students have not been allowed the cross the border and were told, “When your govt has not cooperated with us, why should we cooperate with you?”

A Twitter user Damilare_arah shared a video that showed African people being stopped by Ukrainians from boarding a train. He said, “The official visuals of Ukrainians blocking Africans from getting on trains.”

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1497665799435296773/

The shitshow for some, never truly ends no matter where they go.

Throw a vain autocrat with delusions of never ending grandeur, and things only ever worse.
 
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from Al Jazeera's reporting......a statement about by Ukraine's' FM;

‘We will not give up a single inch of our territory’: Ukrainian foreign minister​

Kuleba says Ukraine will “not give up a single inch of … territory” after agreeing to talks with Russia.

“We go there [to the talks] to listen to what Russia wants to say, we are going without any … preliminary agreement on what the outcome of these talks can be. We are going there to listen and to say what we think of this war and Russia’s actions,” Ukraine’s foreign minister said in a live video address.

“Between now and the moment that the talks are wrapped up, [Belarusian President Alexander] Lukashenko assured President Zelenskyy that no Belarusian military force will be used against Ukraine,” he added.

“We can only hope that Lukashenko will stick to his word. And between now and the moment when these talks are wrapped up, we will continue to fiercely defend our country, to defeat Russian forces if they try to continue their offensive operations.

“We will continue to defeat them in the territories that they have taken under their control – we will not stop, until we defend our country entirely. So there is nothing bad in talking as such, and if the outcome of these talks is peace, that should be welcomed.

“But we will not, and I want to make it very clear, we will not give up a single inch of our territory.”
 
I don’t want to derail the thread, but I guess I should read more about the trial as it seems quite interesting. I remember the Soviets doing some crappy stuff, but I didn’t remember this specific instance.
To be honest, I believe that Putin’s original idea for Ukraine was very similar to the Soviet incursion into Afghanistan in 1979, when the commandos attacked the presidential palace by surprise and killed the head of state (and hus family). The kicker: he was actually their ally, but they wanted someone weaker and more dependent on them.

So their plan was probably to go in, kill Zelensky, replace him with someone else, and put the Ukrainians in front of a fait accompli by the end of the day… That went well :ROFLMAO:

So the lessons are: don’t trust Putin. Don’t trust anyone who’s chummy with Putin (they are either useful idiots or dangerous SOBs). Don’t drink their tea. Stay away from windows. Actually, just stay away from the Russians altogether.
 
An unfortunate truth I've begun seeing pop up in articles this weekend.

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1497950573605228555/

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1497665799435296773/

The shitshow for some, never truly ends no matter where they go.

Throw a vain autocrat with delusions of never ending grandeur, and things only ever worse.
That is appalling.
A refugee is a refugee… I don't understand how this works. How can they pick and choose who gets priority to get to safety?

What I do know about human nature is… when the pressure is on, the fractures show very easily. None more so than race.
 
That is appalling.
A refugee is a refugee… I don't understand how this works. How can they pick and choose who gets priority to get to safety?

What I do know about human nature is… when the pressure is on, the fractures show very easily. None more so than race.
It seems like the Ukrainian refugees are being welcomed with open arms so far. Syrian refugees were treated as possible terrorists by many European nations (and the U.S. too).
 
Well… I hope I am right. I’d see as more probable a nuclear war than the murder of a head of state in that way.

At any rate, Europe better send Putin the message that if Zelensky catches a cold, troops will enter and defend Ukraine.

Speaking of catching a cold, I'm starting to wonder whether Putin has become a fan of The Rapture... and so figures he can play a part in some twisted version of it with his ability to use nukes. I have to hope the guys who take the commands would look at each other and say such a command is a bridge and a half too far.
 
Killing Zelensky during a diplomatic meeting would be a very serious breach of all diplomatic rules, and customs, and a serious breach on how foreign politics is done. I don’t think that even Hitler or Stalin attempted that.

If Zelensky were to be killed during the talks, I’d expect no less than WW3.

At this point it's not clear that this initial meeting will be anything other than a show by both sides for public relations purposes. Perhaps a positive result would be a decision to have a ceasefire and let actual negotiations begin.....somewhere safe as Belarus is not to be trusted at all.

A neutral 3rd party site would definitely be required. As you say, perhaps Turkey, or a couple of days ago it was reported that Ukraine was asking Israel to facilitate negotiations
Once started, such talks can go on forever.

They may achieve little, but at least the fighting and killing has been stopped.

The ones in Georgia - ages ago, I used to be involved in helping to put together TPs (talking points) for some of those meetings - are still - in fits and starts - taking place.
You’d be mistaken, it’s been done before. And you will never guess by whom… three times.
Exactly.
I don’t want to derail the thread, but I guess I should read more about the trial as it seems quite interesting. I remember the Soviets doing some crappy stuff, but I didn’t remember this specific instance.
As you know, I used to teach the history and politics of Russia/Soviet Union and central and eastern Europe; this was my specialty.

However, until last Thursday, I would have agreed with you (@yaxomoxay).

Until last Thursday, I would have leaned towards the 'neo-realist' approach, assumed that I was dealing with rational actors, and acted accordingly.

Someone earlier - must check the post (was it @Zoidberg?) wondered about the "experts" and "advisers", and why they didn't "know".

If they knew - or suspected - and I did wonder and warn about Ukraine and have done so since my time in Georgia - they, most of them, - and I include myself - never thought it would come to this.

For, in the past, I have been one of those advisers, and, until last Thursday, I would have assumed that Mr Putin was simply throwing shapes, making threats for the purposes of securing diplomatic or economic or political advantage (a sort of chess); now, I have long thought - and wrote here and elsewhere - that I believed that his aim was to cripple Ukraine by putting such pressure on political fault lines that it would crack, and split in two.

And, had he confined himself - and his deluded ambitions - to eastern Ukraine, I believe that he would have gotten away with it; we would have accepted it, because some in the east of the country do define themselves as culturally compatible with Russian rule.

However, never did I think he would be so deluded as to attack - in such a manner - the entire country; and the nature of the threats he has been making ever since, lead me to conclude that there are no limits to what he can be - or is - capable of.

The other thing to note is the long, tragic, murderous path of assassination and intimidation of Russian civil society that has been occurring over the past twenty years. To those who ask why Russians aren't protesting (and some are, with extraordinary courage), I might mention that a critical civil society has been eviscerated over the past twenty years, many of its most able, ethical, and prominent members murdered.

We recall the well known names, but some of the finest people in Russia - including lawyers (Sergei Magnitsky), politicians (the outstanding Galina Starovoitova, and, of course, Boris Nemtsov), bankers, yes, bankers, (a deputy chairman of the central bank, who was cracking down on corruption, Andrei Kozlov), journalists (Anna Politkovskaya) were killed, brutally murdered, in those years. That must take an enormous toll of any society.
 
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It seems like the Ukrainian refugees are being welcomed with open arms so far. Syrian refugees were treated as possible terrorists by many European nations (and the U.S. too).
Yes, but this was more about the plight of non-Ukrainians finding themselves trapped in the refugee exodus. Ukrainians are allowed to pass but students from African nations or India are told to get back… Pretty shameful.

Once started, such talks can go on forever.

They may achieve little, but at least the fighting and killing has been stopped.
Though in this case I suspect Putin is envisioning more a set of demands laid before the Ukrainian delegation. Sign or die.
Kind of like (the parallels never stop!) Hitler in the railway carriage at Compiègne.
 
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