Russia-Ukraine

[MarkusL]

I've worked for the EU, and I've worked with the EU.

By their usual standards, - most such decisons require unanimity, which takes time, as participants must be persuaded of the reason for action, rather than bullied or bribed or threatened; this is consensus decision making, which very often - or, almost always - involves complicated compromises, recognises the need for individual governments to be able sell decisions to their electorates and elites in a way that is domestically palatable, therefore, spends considerable time constructing mutually acceptable - and face-saving - solutions - (and, moreover, soft power, rather than hard power, is where their strength lies), - their response has occurred at well in excess of warp speed.

For EU as an organization that is true, but I was thinking more of the EU as a collection of member countries. Sweden for example has used the EU as a shield against having to make decisions of our own, as in "we are not going to do anything until the EU as a whole does something".

 

[Scepticalscribe]

I was not alone in expecting Hungary to be a stumbling block. But once Orban gave his support it could only be smooth sailing.

Well, while I think that Hungary (specifically, Mr Orban's government), may originally have been something of a stumbling block - and I think Mr Putin may have hoped that he (Mr Orban) would play such a role - one word should have sufficed to put pay to that. Namely: 1956.

It is what I would have said had I been present, and asked them (the Hungarians) whether they had completely taken leave of their senses and completely (and conveniently) forgotten their own history?

More to the point, I think that failure to act would not have been forgiven lightly by a Hungarian electorate.

History and geography both play a role here: During one of the elections which I observed in Ukraine, I was sent to the west of the country, where part of my brief was to keep an eye on the Hungarians - the Hungarian minority in Ukraine (i.e. report on whether they were excluded, were able to participate fully in the political and electoral process without hindrance or obstacles, legal, linguistic, economic, cultural, political etc). One day, while "mapping" my region, I walked right up to the border (of Ukraine) with Hungary, stood at the Ukrainian border crossing, and looked across - around 100 metres away - to the Hungarian border post, complete with Hungarian and EU flags.

So, for Hungary, (or rather, for Hungarians), this matter is a little more immediate, and present, and pressing, the nightmares of histoyr returning with a vengeance.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

For me the surprise is Switzerland (granted, not in the EU) loosening their grip on their "neutrality".
Cynical me thinks that in the wake of the Credit Suisse revelations, it was a bit of PR. They're still a rotten bunch.

Agreed (re rotten bunch, and their recognition of the need for PR).

There is some truth in that, but I also think - and this surprised me, but I have worked with Swiss lawyers, and Swiss businessmen, - they were colleagues, hard-working and idealistic and ethical colleagues - when observing elections (indeed, I was more than surprised, and quite taken aback, to learn that Switzerland is in the OSCE) - and they have made it clear to me that Switzerland (in order to be able to do business in, and with, EU countries,) is, (and has to be,) a lot more in conformity with EU law (especially EU commercial and trade law - soft power again) than I would have considered possible.

Meanwhile, here in Blighty, I wish this Tory government would just shut the F up. Truss and Johnson beating the war drums is not helpful.

As for Blighty, well, words fail me on this appalling and perfectly dreadful administration; the fact that they are still dragging their heels on admitting Ukrainians (without compelling them to avail of - and apply for - the atrocious temporary workers' visa scheme) appals me.

My brother (who is in full agreement with me) laughingly asked me last night whether this means that I will now be focussed on Ukraine "rather than Boris and Brexit"?

 

[Arkitect]

Reason no. 2,368 why I despise this Tory Government:

Compare and contrast with what EU countries are doing…

Ukrainians denied entry to UK despite being eligible for visa

A Ukrainian woman and her 15-year-old diabetic daughter say they are feeling increasingly distraught after escaping the conflict in Ukraine only to be blocked from a visa the UK government announced on Sunday evening for which they are eligible.

Yakiv Voloshchuk, 60, a British citizen, rescued his wife, Oksana Voloshchuk, 41 and their daughter, Veronika Voloshchuk, from Poland on 26 February.

He drove from his home in London to the Polish border and waited for them to get across Ukraine’s border with Poland. He then did a return 24-hour journey by road across Europe before reaching Paris on Sunday where he hoped he would get the green light from British officials to bring his wife and daughter on the last leg of the journey to the UK.

The family hoped it would be straightforward to reach the UK, especially after the publication of new Home Office guidance giving permission for some immediate family members of British citizens to apply free of charge to join their loved ones in the UK.

But when Oksana and Veronika tried to apply for the new visa online they were blocked from proceeding unless they paid thousands of pounds, even though the application is supposed to be free.

“We just don’t know what to do,” Voloshchuk told the Guardian on Monday morning.

link…

My brother (who is in full agreement with me) laughingly asked me last night whether this means that I will now be focussed on Ukraine "rather than Boris and Brexit"?

Our work against Pfeffel et al is never done. They will shamelessly use this tragedy to further conceal their mendacious behaviour… Operation Save Big Dog.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

And, from the Guardian today: "The EU is expecting Ukraine’s application to join the European Union “imminently” and officials in Brussels said “this will need to be assessed very rapidly by the council and the decision made as to whether to request an urgent opinion from the European Commission”.

Wow. Unprecedented.

 

[Huntn]

I was not alone in expecting Hungary to be a stumbling block. But once Orban gave his support it could only be smooth sailing.

For me the surprise is Switzerland (granted, not in the EU) loosening their grip on their "neutrality".
Cynical me thinks that in the wake of the Credit Suisse revelations, it was a bit of PR. They're still a rotten bunch.


Meanwhile, here in Blighty, I wish this Tory government would just shut the F up. Truss and Johnson beating the war drums is not helpful.

Most of the World: You are an international law breaker, this action is unacceptable, dispicable! And you provide bull shit treasons for your treachery as if we are stupid.
Putin (With the sound of jet planes, tanks in the background): I’m a little busy here. Can’t the head of a honest, hard working country protect an uppity former minion from itself without you over reacting? I’m uncomfortable now as things aren’t going quite my way, and all this unwarranted hate, so I’m on high nuclear alert incase someone tries to pick on poor persecuted me.
Most of the World: You ASSHOLE!

 

[Arkitect]

And, from the Guardian today: "The EU is expecting Ukraine’s application to join the European Union “imminently” and officials in Brussels said “this will need to be assessed very rapidly by the council and the decision made as to whether to request an urgent opinion from the European Commission”.

Wow. Unprecedented.

I wonder though… I do hope that the EU do not get carried away by this and just allow the Ukraine into the EU without the relevant checks and balances.
Sure, get talks and membership route going, but there are referendums to be held in a few countries before a new nation can become a member. (I may be incorrect about that.)

And boy, Serbia and the rest of the countries waiting patiently/impatiently for many years are not going to be so happy.

I mean, I am all in supporting Ukraine against Russia's aggression… but… but… how much exactly do we know about many issues like Human Rights/Women's Rights/Gay Rights… never mind demonstrating that they will be an asset to the EU's economy.

Personally I think there should be a few steps between "waving flags, growing sunflowers, a media love-in with a comedian turned president" and automatic rubber stamping the Ukraine into the EU.

That is exactly the sort of thing that made Brexit possible by scaring the living bejeezus out of Brits.

And speaking of Brexit:

Priti Patel says waiving visa requirements would pose security risk

She summarises the rules in place.

Some requirements and salary threshold have already been lowered, she says.

She says an extra 100,000 Ukrainians will be able to come to the UK as a result of her changes.

Patel says some MPs are calling for visa waivers for Ukrainians.

But she says she will not agree to that. She says biometric checks are an essential part of the system. She says, on the basis of security advice, they need to stay. She says Russians are infiltrating Ukrainian forces, and she says extremist groups are active in the war zone.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Reason no. 2,368 why I despise this Tory Government:

Compare and contrast with what EU countries are doing…



link…



Our work against Pfeffel et al is never done. They will shamelessly use this tragedy to further conceal their mendacious behaviour… Operation Save Big Dog.

Oh, a passionate, profound and heartfelt amen to this. You are absolutely correct.

And - an occasion for further shame - and I, personally, deeply dislike taking potshots of women in public life - they tend to get more than enough grief as it is - but, I will make an exception for the perfectly dreadful Priti Patel, who, according to the Guardian, has stated that waiving visa requirements for Ukrainians would "pose a security risk". Apparently, she said that some "some requirements and salary thresholds have been lowered", but that biometric checks "are an essential part of the system", and that, "on the basis of security advice, they need to stay."

This is both disgusting and disgraceful.

Contrast that with FIFA who (belatedly, very belatedly, granted) - according to the BBC - are set to suspend Russia from international football. If true, that will hurt.

 

[Huntn]

I wonder though… I do hope that the EU do not get carried away by this and just allow the Ukraine into the EU without the relevant checks and balances.
Sure, get talks and membership route going, but there are referendums to be held in a few countries before a new nation can become a member. (I may be incorrect about that.)

And boy, Serbia and the rest of the countries waiting patiently/impatiently for many years are not going to be so happy.

I mean, I am all in supporting Ukraine against Russia's aggression… but… but… how much exactly do we know about many issues like Human Rights/Women's Rights/Gay Rights… never mind demonstrating that they will be an asset to the EU's economy.

Personally I think there should be a few steps between "waving flags, growing sunflowers, a media love-in with a comedian turned president" and automatic rubber stamping the Ukraine into the EU.

That is exactly the sort of things that made Brexit possible by scaring the living bejeezus out of Brits.

Doesn’t a lot depend on what happens in Ukraine? Isn't it based on Ukraine holding off Russian forces and keeping their government intact? I mean, I really hope this happens.

 

[Arkitect]

Doesn’t a lot depend on what happens in Ukraine? Isn't it based on Ukraine holding off Russian forces and keeping their government intact? I mean, I really hope this happens.

Correct. I cannot imagine this happening during a war of occupation.
For one thing Ukraine would need to ask their own population if they want to be part of the EU… and imagine the Russian hissy-fit.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

I wonder though… I do hope that the EU do not get carried away by this and just allow the Ukraine into the EU without the relevant checks and balances.
Sure, get talks and membership route going, but there are referendums to be held in a few countries before a new nation can become a member. (I may be incorrect about that.)

And boy, Serbia and the rest of the countries waiting patiently/impatiently for many years are not going to be so happy.

I mean, I am all in supporting Ukraine against Russia's aggression… but… but… how much exactly do we know about many issues like Human Rights/Women's Rights/Gay Rights… never mind demonstrating that they will be an asset to the EU's economy.

Personally I think there should be a few steps between "waving flags, growing sunflowers, a media love-in with a comedian turned president" and automatic rubber stamping the Ukraine into the EU.

That is exactly the sort of things that made Brexit possible by scaring the living bejeezus out of Brits.

Actually, I agree with you.

I'd like to see talks started - and once, started, and the respective requirements met - this is a process that can take years.

And, personally, I have long wished to see Serbian membership (of the EU) encouraged and promoted. Turkish membership, too, for that matter.

Just as integating Germany (well, west Germany as it was then) into the heart of the postwar European economic and political settlement ensured peace and stability in Europe, I believe that Serbian membership (of the EU) would play a similar role in serving to help stabilise the Balkans.

And yes, Croatia - since it gained EU membership - has played a major spoiler role re potential Serbian membership, - placing as many diplomatic (and other) obstacles in its path as possible (despite having promised not to do so prior to having been accepted into the EU) which is very regrettable, and frankly, infuriating. Now, likewise, Russia would - from a different perspective - also play a spoiler role in any attempt to secure Serbian membership, but, for now, as we can see, Russia is otherwise fully occupied.

And I read that - not surprisingly - the rouble has lost around 40% of its value today.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Doesn’t a lot depend on what happens in Ukraine? Isn't it based on Ukraine holding off Russian forces and keeping their government intact? I mean, I really hope this happens.

Correct. I cannot imagine this happening during a war of occupation.
For one thing Ukraine would need to ask their own population if they want to be part of the EU… and imagine the Russian hissy-fit.

Agreed.

Nevertheless, the fact that this is even under consideration, or possibly under discussion, (as opposed to - say, - being deferred, sine die) is quite extraordinary.

 

[Pumbaa]

And I read that - not surprisingly - the rouble has lost around 40% of its value today.

Time to refer to it as “the rubble” soon?

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Time to refer to it as “the rubble” soon?

Actually, - given that there was a complete Russian currency collapse and the country defaulted on its international debt in the late 1990s - creating the catastrophic (economic and social) conditions that led (more or less directly) to the appointment of Mr Putin - initially - as Prime Minister, by then President Yeltsin, later succeeding Mr Yeltsin as President, - personally, I would prefer to see another route to - how shall one phrase this tactfully and diplomatically? - regime change, (perhaps discontented, shocked or appalled elites) than ensuring complete Russian economic collapse.

Complete economic collapses - yes, Russia should be made aware that actions have consequences and that the state runs the risk (at astonishing speed) of being made an international pariah - are not good for the economic, or social, or political health of a country.

Unfortunately, such catastrophic consequences are more likely to give rise to conditions that suit the emergence of populist autocrats who seek to aim, or channel, or direct, impotent public fury at convenient selected targets (Jews, or gays, or other ethnicities, or other social classes, for example), than create the conditions needed for the development of (a stable) democracy.

Persuading Russians that this invasion is not just not a good idea and will be actively and fiercely resisted, and that their leader is displaying a dismaying lack of judgme fuelled and informed by deranged delusions is one thing, but revelling in their humiliation will not end well for us, either.

 

[Zoidberg]

And boy, Serbia and the rest of the countries waiting patiently/impatiently for many years are not going to be so happy.

I believe if Serbia were to be allowed in the EU, it would end up being a Trojan horse. I've never met more nationalist people (in a bad way), except maybe the Russians.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

I believe if Serbia were to be allowed in the EU, it would end up being a Trojan horse. I've never met more nationalist people (in a bad way), except maybe the Russians.

The Croats more than match them, unfortunately.

And, while Serbia has produced some truly appalling and perfectly ghastly leaders, they have also lost some excellent ones, (and occasionally, even genuinely democratic ones), to assassination, such as Zoran Djindic, and Ivan Stambolic.

 

[Pumbaa]

The Executive Board of the International Olympic Committee recommends that International Sports Federations and sports event organisers not invite or allow the participation of Russian and Belarusian athletes and officials in international competitions.

https://olympics.com/ioc/news/ioc-eb-recommends-no-participation-of-russian-and-belarusian-athletes-and-officials

 

[Macky-Mac]

An exceptionally important point, agreed.

I don't know whether our American readers actually understand just quite how extraordinary - and transformative - all of this is to European political culture and society.

And equally extraordinary is the case of Germany, exporting arms (for the first time since 1945) to a conflict zone (one, moreover, heavy with historical resonance for Germany), and doubling their defence budget overnight.

And most extraordinary is the case of the EU.

I have worked with the EU, worked for several EU CSDP missions; the EU doesn't do armed conflict. And doesn't support, fund, or equip belligerents.

In general, the EU sends civilian "capacity-building" missions to conflict areas or war zones, generally operating under an armed umbrella supplied by someone else (NATO, the US, etc for example); the EU supports (and funds) the building of a civilian infrastructure - courts, prosecution services, police, human, civil, and women's rights, whereas people like me advise on (and report on) political matters.

But, this is unprecedented - for the EU to agree to send arms - especially at such short notice. (And, by the way, I'm in wholehearted agreement with this).

It's indeed been quite astonishing to see the European reaction develop......it's quite a turn around from just a few weeks earlier.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

From the Guardian: "Switzerland, a favourite destination for Russian oligarchs, has set aside its tradition of neutrality and announced that it will adopt all the sanctions already imposed by the European Union on Russia."

 

[JayMysteri0]

Contrast that with FIFA who (belatedly, very belatedly, granted) - according to the BBC - are set to suspend Russia from international football. If true, that will hurt.

Yeah, about that...

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1498329599477964803/
https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1498325273552596996/