Russia-Ukraine

It's indeed been quite astonishing to see the European reaction develop......it's quite a turn around from just a few weeks earlier.
I think seeing what is happening in Ukraine has caused our politicians to start thinking about what the next step will be if we just let Putin have his way again.

In the press conference where the Swedish PM and Defence Minister presented the aid package to the Ukrainian army they were asked approximately “These weapons were bought to equip the Swedish army. Does that mean we weaken our own forces when we give them away?”

The answer was that the weapons were bought to enhance Sweden’s security, and in this situation the best place for the weapons to contribute to Sweden’s security is in Ukraine.
 
From the Guardian: "Switzerland, a favourite destination for Russian oligarchs, has set aside its tradition of neutrality and announced that it will adopt all the sanctions already imposed by the European Union on Russia."

Switzerland was otherwise maybe soon enough going to run into some fine print in whatever its trade agreements are with the European Union. The EU is Switzerland's main trading partner but Switzerland is only fourth on the list of the EU's trade partners (after US, China, UK).
 
The first day of talks ended without anybody being kidnapped or murdered.....and nobody surrendered.

Both sides agreed to resume the talks after a break for "consultations" with their respective governments.

 
And he's right...

Sen. Leahy: Putin has miscalculated the United States because “he was able to lead Donald Trump around like a puppy dog”​

 
Just one more thing that makes me like Pat Leahy even more. (Besides the fact that he’s a Batman fan, I mean.)
 
It’s done.


Excellent.

Extraordinarily rapid, too, not least as FIFA had been dragging their heels on this as recently as yesterday.

And, also from the Guardian:

"Russia’s stock market will remain closed on Tuesday, Russia’s central bank has confirmed.

Russia’s central bank initially delayed trading on Moscow’s stock exchange on Monday until at least 3pm local time, before saying it would stay closed all day. It has now said trading will not resume on 1 March."

Obviously, the economic blows - sanctions, and currency collapses - are hitting earlier, and far harder than anyone would have anticipated, or expected, Russia's cushion of a vast sovereign reserve fund notwithstanding.
 
Turkey has triggered the 1936 Montreux Convention, has warned both Black Sea and non-Black Sea countries not to pass warships through its Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, reported Reuters (I am quoting from the Guardian).

Turkey controls the straits under the 1936 Montreux Convention, which stipulates that in a time of war Turkey may block access to warships belonging to states bordering the Black Sea, providing they are not returning to their permanent bases there.

The 1936 Montreux Convention allows Turkey to restrict naval transit on its straits during wartime, though allowing warships to return to their registered bases.

Turkish officials including Mr Çavuşoğlu (the Foreign Minister) declared yesterday that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine constitutes a war, a significant shift in tone after officials previously described it as a “military operation,” even while condemning Russia’s actions.

According to the convention, Black Sea nations must notify Turkey eight days in advance of their warships, including submarines, transiting the straits while warships belonging to other nations require 15 days notice. The decision to block ships could affect an estimated 16 Russian warships and submarines currently in the Mediterranean, some of which are part of their Black Sea fleet.

Following a meeting of his cabinet, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated earlier today that “we have decided to exercise the authority granted to our country by the Montreux Convention regarding vessel traffic on the straits in order to prevent the escalation of the crisis.”

Erdogan has repeatedly offered to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, amid efforts to maintain its alliances with both parties. Turkey imports roughly a third of its natural gas from Russia and previously bought Russia’s S400 missile defense system, but has recently enhanced its economic and defense ties to Ukraine, including selling Kyiv Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones.

“Throughout this process, we have maintained our multifaceted diplomatic initiatives uninterruptedly to ensure peace and stability, and we continue to do so,” said Erdoğan.
 
I have to wonder if Putin didn't see all of this coming. FiFA, the IOC, F1, and the list of pushback goes on and on........
I have, at least for the moment, given up trying to guess what Putin did or did not expect. Happy to add the International Ice Hockey Federation suspension of both Russia and Belarus to the list, though.

 
I have, at least for the moment, given up trying to guess what Putin did or did not expect. Happy to add the International Ice Hockey Federation suspension of both Russia and Belarus to the list, though.

Agreed.

However, I have yet to see an authoritarian, or autocratic, regime that didn't genuinely thrill to and glory in, participation, the attendant recognition, and - above all - success - in any international sports arena (be it soccer, hockey, the Olympics, motor car racing, and so on) they were permitted to participate in.
 
I have to wonder if Putin didn't see all of this coming. FiFA, the IOC, F1, and the list of pushback goes on and on........
Can he recognize that he has made his country a pariah, and two, does he care? I mean yes, he will care when the time comes his grip on power is threatened, but I’m talking before then when Russia is locked out from the world community?

My impression with bloated ego individuals, they are always right and it’s the rest of the world with the problem. He might actually be ok with that, just like our own state side pariah, until someone shows up with handcuffs.


 
I have to wonder if Putin didn't see all of this coming. FiFA, the IOC, F1, and the list of pushback goes on and on........
I do not think he expected to have so much of the world lined up against him. I mean right now, it's Russia (and Belarus) vs. NATO and sympathetic countries, sports leagues and companies.

Turkey kinda surprised me, as well as BP and Shell pulling out their investments in Gazprom. It's become quite a bandwagon effect--and I like it.

If I were to guess what's going on in the Kremlin now, I'd say Putin has been taken quite by surprise. He thought this was gonna be a cakewalk, and it's not going that way.

So one of two things is happening. Either he's (a) looking for a way to exit gracefully and save face (withdrawing and saying he's proven his point); or (b) digging in for the long haul, because he's either losing his reason or is not about to admit that this wasn't such a hot idea. Given his tendency to act like he's the cleverest, toughest guy in the room, I'd guess the latter.
 
War Stories 28Feb22:

No, You’re Not Imagining It: Russia’s Army Is Inept​

But superior firepower still gives it an edge in the short run.

After four days of fighting, the Russian military is bogged down in Ukraine. In part this is due to the valiant resistance of Ukraine’s army and civilian defense forces. But it’s also due to the fact that the Russian army just isn’t very good.

News reports, tweets, videos, and emails from the battlefields show Russia’s armored vehicles abandoned for lack of fuel, its soldiers foraging for food, its transport planes shot out of the sky, its various military elements—tanks, infantry, aircraft—unable to coordinate their aims.

Michael Kofman, a military analyst at CNA, an Arlington, Virginia–based think tank, who has been following the battle closely, tweeted late Sunday afternoon, “It’s taken me a while to figure out what [the Russian military is] trying to do, because it looks so ridiculous and incompetent.” B.A. Friedman, a military historian and tactician, went further: “This isn’t a good army executing a bad plan. It isn’t a good army executing outdated or out-of-context tactics. It’s a bad army!”



Ukrainians are hurling Molotov cocktails at Russians. Hungarians and Finns have done the same.​

*paywall you might have to use reader mode.
The young men waited in the shadows until the Russian tank had passed them on the narrow city street. Then one jumped from a doorway, climbed onto the vehicle and jammed a crowbar into its tread, bringing it to a halt.
When a member of the tank crew cracked open a hatch to take a look, another man threw a flaming molotov cocktail, while the first man jerked open the hatch and dropped in a hand grenade. Other men then clambered over the tank, yanked out the Russians and shot them.
“As long as there are old bottles and gasoline supplies and rags to serve for fuses, no Russian tank will be safe in the streets,” a member of the besieged country’s defiant government declared in the New York Times. (His name was withheld for security reasons.)
The Russian army has “met its match in the molotov cocktail,” he proclaimed.
 
Zekensky is asking for a no-fly zone to be created. With the momentum of support for Ukraine growing every day, is it possible such a thing could happen?

In other news, Russia keeps killing civilians as it holds talks. You’d think they could put in a 1-day ceasefire for the talks… if the talks were serious. This makes it seem as if Russia doesn’t take them seriously.
 
Zekensky is asking for a no-fly zone to be created. With the momentum of support for Ukraine growing every day, is it possible such a thing could happen?

In other news, Russia keeps killing civilians as it holds talks. You’d think they could put in a 1-day ceasefire for the talks… if the talks were serious. This makes it seem as if Russia doesn’t take them seriously.
Anyone enforcing it immediately goes to war with Russia, I'm of the opinion the all NATO nations should join a united front and defend them, I don't think Putin will stop until he's put down.
 
It is quite something to see the valor of Ukrainians. That story of the Ukrainian soldiers protecting that island who were feared dead has inspired a script or two, I’m sure. Was thrilled to hear they made it out alive, if that report was accurate.
 
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