At this point in 2014, Republicans were polling 20-30 points ahead of Democrats.
Right now, many races are just about even.
Biden’s approval numbers are in the toilet, but Republicans might fail to take advantage of it. After all, as low as Biden’s numbers are, approval of Republicans in Congress is at 23%.
Perhaps the crazies in the GOP are going to be such a liability that the party finally gets rid of them. Herschel Walker, JD Vance, and Dr. Oz are poised to lose in Senate races that would probably be a slam-dunk for the GOP if they had sane candidates running. Three Senate seats they cannot afford to lose.
The Republican strategy is to go extreme and full-Trump. This is working fine in gerrymandered districts. But in any competitive district, and in statewide races, this is more a liability than a strength. Maryland, a “blue” state, has had a Republican governor for many years, but this year an extreme Trump-lover got the nomination. It’s pretty much guaranteed that a Democrat will be governor of the state now.
How many state-wide races are the Republicans willing to forfeit to keep the insane Trump cult happy? If 2022 goes to the Democrats in a year that seemed impossible for Republicans to lose, will that be enough? Or is this affliction incurable?