The Election Day Thread

[DT]

Don't be so fatalistic. Having the WH is still better than having the senate but Trump wreaking havoc.
Objective #1 will be completed: removal of Trump

Believe me, Trump's mojo is winning, so if he loses he'll fade out. He'll not be in good enough shape to even retry running in 2024. So consider 1 of the 2 venom teeth removed.
Also, 2022 there's gonna be 20 GOP and 12 Dem senate seats up for re-election, so we'll be in a good position to allow Biden to have Congressional AND Senate control.

Too bad that it will take longer to rebuild thanks to Mitch...but I'm not sure how long Mitch is gonna stick around either.

Oh I agree, hahaha, I'm insanely positive, to a fault

We need trump gone, FULL STOP.

We need this reset, a reasonable Administration, some rational discourse between semi-coherent, empathetic, human beings vs. this divisive shit show.

 

[lizkat]

I love to hate Susan Collins too, but she is somebody who might actually cross the aisle to pass legislation... not sure that will be possible with Mitch in charge though.

I read that there are only 300 votes left to count in Wisconsin... and yet nobody is "calling" the race yet? Even Trump knows he lost since he's asking for a recount. Pollsters weren't shy about predicting Biden, but news networks are very shy about calling any state that's not clearly decided.

There are other GOP Senators who may once again prove somewhat independent of their party's leadership on assorted legislative endeavors originating with Dems when it's not Trump looming over their perceived "screw-up" votes... Sasse, Romney...
.
And look, Mitch McConnell is on record as having said he could work with Hillary Clinton in the White House. He said that even knowing she would likely make some SCOTUS picks. So he can certainly work with Biden. And Wall Street will be happy to quit having to bake into every day's futures the possibility of a nuke-like Trump tweet in the wee hours when it's hard to wake up enough to make a buck off arbitrage in the ensuing chaos.

Part of McConnell's wariness of Trump aside from personal distaste for his ways was always about whether Trump would cross the aisle and cut randomly self-serving deals with the Democrats. McConnell's not averse to doing that himself from within the Senate, but with a rational political opponent in the White House, not a dubiously allied party comrade.

Sure I was hoping for more... I still am... there are lots of votes out there and a couple runoffs in January in Georgia. But rose colored glasses aside, yeah I'm shocked at how dismal it is that these elections are so close, the polls still missing some critically needed insight, and what a narrow miss it's turning out to be in the top slots regarding the disaster of a second term awarded to Trump. I honestly don't think he'd last long in the office but I'm relieved to see it's almost certainly not going to be in the cards.

The big concern is keeping Trump on rails until January. I could hope that McConnell will cooperate with Biden-Harris team as a kind of stand-in for the outgoing president during the transition. There are probably a lot of officials who'd love to pull the plug early on Trump's official Twitter account... because that's the one thing no one seems able to constrain with any certainty, and he's able to work a lot of mischief from that account.

As for the rest of Trump's administration, most but not all will probably cooperate with the Biden-Harris transition teams. Their required allegiance is not to Trump but to the constitution in the end and they do have to try to round up another job in January.

 

[DT]

CNN just called Wisconsin for Biden.

I'm eating cheese!

 

[JayMysteri0]

What’s really going on with the mail-in ballots the US Postal Service can’t trace

The case of the supposed 300,000 missing mail-in ballots isn’t what it seems.

www.vox.com

Several news outlets reported on Election Day that the United States Postal Service did not have records of delivery scans for 300,000 mail-in ballots across a dozen states, stoking fears that changes to the Postal Service implemented earlier this year by new Postmaster General Louis DeJoy, a top Trump donor, had potentially disenfranchised hundreds of thousands of voters.

But the president of the largest postal worker union corroborated in an interview with Recode on Wednesday morning what the Postal Service has repeatedly said about the data in court filings in recent days: There are numerous reasons why ballots in the days leading up to the election would not receive a delivery scan and that it’s highly unlikely that the number of undelivered ballots totaled anywhere near 300,000.

“Just because something didn’t have [a delivery scan] does not translate at all into ‘it was not delivered,’” Mark Dimondstein, president of the American Postal Workers Union, told Recode on Wednesday. (The APWU has previously been critical of operational changes DeJoy implemented earlier this year — and then put on pause — that its leaders say led to delivery delays.) “What we had in place … is the ballots were given such priority treatment, even beyond first-class treatment, that ballots were being purposely pulled out” of normal mail-processing procedures and given expedited delivery in the days leading up to Election Day.

 

[Edd]

I'm eating cheese!

The power of avatars. It’s a comment like this that truly sounds like it’s coming out of Bender’s mouth.

 

[Eric]

The power of avatars. It’s a comment like this that truly sounds like it’s coming out of Bender’s mouth.

Indeed it does.

 

[lizkat]

C'mon Michigan... it's lookin' good. What's still out is absentee, and the ones of those that have come in are better than 2 to 1 for Biden.

Michigan Presidential Election Results (Published 2020)

See full results and maps for the 2020 presidential election in Michigan.

www.nytimes.com

What's weird to me in the age breakout so far is that it's the 30-44 age group went for Trump in Michigan. So millennnials and the younger members of Gen X cohort. Not the seniors, and not the young nor the 45-64 group either. Maybe that's not weird but it speaks to deluded expectations of Donald Trump in a second term if the reason was actually economic.

 

[Edd]

Indeed it does.

Unnecessary bro.

 

[Edd]

C'mon Michigan... it's lookin' good. What's still out is absentee, and the ones of those that have come in are better than 2 to 1 for Biden.

Michigan Presidential Election Results (Published 2020)

See full results and maps for the 2020 presidential election in Michigan.

www.nytimes.com

What's weird to me in the age breakout so far is that it's the 30-44 age group went for Trump in Michigan. So millennnials and the younger members of Gen X cohort. Not the seniors, and not the young nor the 45-64 group either. Maybe that's not weird but it speaks to deluded expectations of Donald Trump in a second term if the reason was actually economic.

When it comes to that demographic I start thinking about militia groups and perhaps militia-lite types...like, you know, they’re not shooting anyone but they sure are a fan of being white males in “America”, as these douchebags would never call it the “U.S.”.

 

[Yoused]

The headline you never thought you would see:

United States Risks Sanctions from Zimbabwe If Elections are not Free and Fair​

 

[User.45]

Oh I agree, hahaha, I'm insanely positive, to a fault

We need trump gone, FULL STOP.

We need this reset, a reasonable Administration, some rational discourse between semi-coherent, empathetic, human beings vs. this divisive shit show.

We are actually winning here. I know we hoped for obliteration (I sure did), but hey, just think about the time when we can ignore Trump's tweets because they'll stop carrying any weight or relevance. Hell, just imagine the moment Twitter's EUA will start applying to him again and he finally gets banned.

Or when his family's shady dealings will be uncovered and that dynasty he's so hopeful to build will crumble.

Guys, life is good. We'll fix this national psychosis one day at a time.

 

[rdrr]

The headline you never thought you would see:

United States Risks Sanctions from Zimbabwe If Elections are not Free and Fair​

Actually we have become the Sh*thole country.

 

[SuperMatt]

If Biden wins Michigan (looks like he already has other than officially) along with Nevada and Arizona, it looks like 270 electoral votes exactly? So then even if he loses NC, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, he still wins....??? Is that real?

 

[Edd]

If Biden wins Michigan (looks like he already has other than officially) along with Nevada and Arizona, it looks like 270 electoral votes exactly? So then even if he loses NC, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, he still wins....??? Is that real?

Sounds close to right. Maybe add Maine on but maybe not.

 

[JayMysteri0]

If Biden wins Michigan (looks like he already has other than officially) along with Nevada and Arizona, it looks like 270 electoral votes exactly? So then even if he loses NC, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, he still wins....??? Is that real?

That's the belief.

The election is close, but Biden’s prospects look better than Trump’s

Trump still could win, but Biden appears to have the edge.

www.vox.com

Votes in the presidential election are still being counted, and it’s still possible for the race to go either way. However, there are encouraging signs for former Vice President Joe Biden in the states that have not yet been called.

It’s pretty simple: Biden has already taken the lead in Michigan, and he is expected to take the lead in Pennsylvania as well, as more mail ballots are counted. (He’s already been called the winner in Wisconsin, though there



may be a recount.) Those three states would be enough for Biden to top the 270 electoral votes needed to win, even if he loses every other state that has not yet been called.

Apart from the trio of key swing states, there are four other important states that have not yet been called — Georgia and North Carolina in the Southeast, and Nevada and Arizona in the West. Some combination of those states could become a backup plan of sorts for Biden if he doesn’t end up winning Pennsylvania.

 

[Yoused]

Interesting that the area where the campaign bus was besieged shows 3 counties voting blue on cnn's map

 

[lizkat]

If Biden wins Michigan (looks like he already has other than officially) along with Nevada and Arizona, it looks like 270 electoral votes exactly? So then even if he loses NC, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, he still wins....??? Is that real?

Yeah. Try this, the NYT has some data up on what's thought to be left to count plus an interactives with paths left for the key states still out.

Biden has more pathways... it's almost over for Trump even regardless of his recount request for Wisconsin... and possibly even if Trump takes PA, which still has a couple MILLION votes out from Philly and near suburbs and was forecast to go late to Biden on mail-ins.

Live: Where Presidential Votes Remain to Be Counted (Published 2020)

See the outstanding estimated vote to be counted in the 2020 presidential election.

www.nytimes.com

for instance if Biden just takes Nevada now, w/ MI and AZ in bag, Trump is done.

 

[Renzatic]

If Biden wins Nevada and Michigan, and keeps Arizona, all of which he's so VERY SLIGHTLY ahead in at the moment, then the election is his. He breaks 270.

Though if there's an upset, and 500,000 of the currently uncounted for votes end up swinging overwhelmingly in Biden's favor in Pennsylvania, then hey, more icing on the cake. Though I doubt that'll happen. It's slightly more likely Biden ends up taking Georgia and losing Penn, since he's only 80,000 votes behind here, and the remaining votes are from heavily Democrat districts.

Either way, this election is down the razor's edge this year.

 

[SuperMatt]

From FiveThirtyEight.....

DAN HOPKINS
NOV. 4, 3:33 PM
With the latest updated votes in Pennsylvania, Trump’s raw lead drops below 400,000 votes. If the Secretary of State’s website accurately reflects outstanding mail ballots, there are roughly 1 million mail ballots still out, which excludes those that arrived most recently.

Sounds good for Biden...

 

[SuperMatt]

Yeah. Try this, the NYT has some data up on what's thought to be left to count plus an interactives with paths left for the key states still out.

Biden has more pathways... it's almost over for Trump even regardless of his recount request for Wisconsin... and possibly even if Trump takes PA, which still has a couple MILLION votes out from Philly and near suburbs and was forecast to go late to Biden on mail-ins.

Live: Where Presidential Votes Remain to Be Counted (Published 2020)

See the outstanding estimated vote to be counted in the 2020 presidential election.

www.nytimes.com

for instance if Biden just takes Nevada now, w/ MI and AZ in bag, Trump is done.

View attachment 1142

I like this tool - there are ways it can still be a tie, which would mean the House of Representatives would pick a president?