The Election Day Thread

From FiveThirtyEight.....

DAN HOPKINS
NOV. 4, 3:33 PM
With the latest updated votes in Pennsylvania, Trump’s raw lead drops below 400,000 votes. If the Secretary of State’s website accurately reflects outstanding mail ballots, there are roughly 1 million mail ballots still out, which excludes those that arrived most recently.

Sounds good for Biden...

It does indeed.

But of course a cornered rat is more dangerous than ones with a few open paths in a maze. and Trump is pretty much down to getting Pennsylvania or packing his bags and scaling the wall he built around the WH on Inauguration Day to get to the helo waiting on the lawn.... unless the transition team is nice and takes a wall down for him on January 20.

I bet the Dems AND the Republicans have election lawyers from one end of Pennslvania to the other but mostly in Philadelphia counting houses.

And I'm back to playing Springsteen's Streets of Philadelphia on a repeat loop.
 
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I like this tool - there are ways it can still be a tie, which would mean the House of Representatives would pick a president?

Hah, yeah. Wouldn't that be an extra kick for the latest chapters in our history books.

But those chances are pretty slim. The votes out in PA now will tilt strongly to Biden and he's down by fewer than half a million now with a couple million to go. We might not know the results until Friday. But Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin counters are not sitting on their hands in the meantime and so Pennsylvania's starting to look like a one-stop-but-door-closed shop for The Don.
 
You mean when the Republicans run Trump Jr and the Democrats run another establishment paperweight?

Here’s my prediction. Biden is so not a Socialist, but the DNC will blamestorm with “but they thought he was.” Then they’ll roll out another establishment Mr. Potato Head whose main platform revolves around not being named Trump. They’d probably have a better chance running Trumps’ disgruntled niece. They’ll claim that the country still really just wants a moderate despite the fact that the Trump administration successfully passed a southern border human hunting season and permits to extract combustible fuel from the bodies of non-white poor people. Keep fighting for mediocrity!
Not that I'm saying you're wrong and we don't need a more radical candidate, but I'm not convinced of it either. You could very well lose more Democrats and Independents than you pick up.

The problem is not so much that Democrats aren't radical enough (though I'd like to see them edge that way). It's that four decades of right wing propaganda has convinced Republicans and many independents that Democrats are socialists, baby-eaters, etc. You have to search far and wide to find a Republican that has a proper sense of proportion anymore. They're almost all on the radical side.

...And look, Mitch McConnell is on record as having said he could work with Hillary Clinton in the White House. He said that even knowing she would likely make some SCOTUS picks. So he can certainly work with Biden. And Wall Street will be happy to quit having to bake into every day's futures the possibility of a nuke-like Trump tweet in the wee hours when it's hard to wake up enough to make a buck off arbitrage in the ensuing chaos.
Pardon me if I say that sounds hopelessly naive.* I think the Republican party has moved radically to the right, McConnell included. He may or may not have meant what he said about Hillary, but never forget he's the guy who held hundreds of court seats open in the eight years Obama was president. Then there's someone (I think it was Eric Cantor) saying that they would make sure that no legislation, nothing, that Obama wanted to do would get passed.

* I'm not trying to be insulting here or to minimize your opinion, it's just that when I said that to one of our right wing trolls in The Old Country, I got dinged by a moderator, and it feels so refreshing to actually be able to say it without fear or reprisal.

When it comes to that demographic I start thinking about militia groups and perhaps militia-lite types...like, you know, they’re not shooting anyone but they sure are a fan of being white males in “America”, as these douchebags would never call it the “U.S.”.
This, along with these asinine razor-thin margins, is one of the reasons I advocate for a clean divorce from Trumpland. When you are surrounded by so many neighbors with Trump flags on their homes, on their cars, everywhere but sticking out of their asses, well...this is not the America I know anymore. It feels, seriously, like I'm living among neo-Nazis.

Believe it or not, I welcome headlines like that. I've been of the opinion for a while now that if we put sanctions on other non-democratic countries, they should be put on us when we behave in a non-democratic way. I'm not against my country, but I do want to see Republicans get rattled when their authoritarian tendencies get out of control.
 
Would someone please post a GIF of Bugs Bunny sawing Florida off the US map? I feel that this thread and apparently most US prez election threads in recent times would be incomplete without one of those.
For you (and the rest of America).

200.gif
 
The OSCE ODIHR Preliminary Report (Statement of Preliminary Findings) has just been issued.

United States of America, General Elections, 3 November 2020: Statement of Preliminary Findings and Conclusions http://www.osce.org/node/469437
Haven't read it all yet, but these two parts particularly stand out to me:

At the federal level, there have been no election-related legislative changes since the last elections, despite previous recommendations. Several bills relating to electoral security, voter registration and online advertisements were submitted to Congress, but none were adopted.8 The COVID-19 pandemic led to a plethora of state level amendments which would allow the elections to be held while protecting the health of voters and election administration officials. A significant proportion of these measures were challenged in courts, mostly by the Republican Party, resulting in protracted litigation seeking to maintain previous arrangements. This in turn produced a great deal of legal uncertainty even in the days leading up to the elections. Notwithstanding the imperatives of securing the election during a pandemic, the litigation of election processes so close to the election day and the attending legal uncertainty is contrary to international good practice, presents an additional burden on election administration and may ultimately result in some voters not being able to cast their ballots.9 (See also Complaints and Appeals).
and
An estimated 5.2 million citizens are disenfranchised due to a criminal conviction, with many of them having already served their sentences.24 These restrictions disproportionately affect racial minorities and it is estimated that 1.3 million African Americans are unable to vote as a result of these policies. Convicted felons and those on parole are deprived of their voting rights in 48 States, while those convicted of a crime in Maine, Vermont and the District of Columbia do not have their voting rights revoked.25 In Florida, following a referendum in 2018, an amendment was passed to the state’s constitution automatically restoring voting rights for an estimated 1.4 million former criminal offenders who had completed their sentence. However, the Florida state legislature enacted a law requiring citizens with past convictions to pay all court costs, fees and fines in full, as a condition to register to vote. Restrictions on voting rights of felons and ex-felons contravene principles of universal suffrage, and the principle of proportionality in the restriction of rights, as provided for by the OSCE commitments and other international standards.26
 
Their final report may end up more eye-opening... here again is the link to their observations on the US election


Well worth a look.
 
Not that I'm saying you're wrong and we don't need a more radical candidate, but I'm not convinced of it either. You could very well lose more Democrats and Independents than you pick up.

The problem is not so much that Democrats aren't radical enough (though I'd like to see them edge that way). It's that four decades of right wing propaganda has convinced Republicans and many independents that Democrats are socialists, baby-eaters, etc. You have to search far and wide to find a Republican that has a proper sense of proportion anymore. They're almost all on the radical side.


Pardon me if I say that sounds hopelessly naive.* I think the Republican party has moved radically to the right, McConnell included. He may or may not have meant what he said about Hillary, but never forget he's the guy who held hundreds of court seats open in the eight years Obama was president. Then there's someone (I think it was Eric Cantor) saying that they would make sure that no legislation, nothing, that Obama wanted to do would get passed.

* I'm not trying to be insulting here or to minimize your opinion, it's just that when I said that to one of our right wing trolls in The Old Country, I got dinged by a moderator, and it feels so refreshing to actually be able to say it without fear or reprisal.


This, along with these asinine razor-thin margins, is one of the reasons I advocate for a clean divorce from Trumpland. When you are surrounded by so many neighbors with Trump flags on their homes, on their cars, everywhere but sticking out of their asses, well...this is not the America I know anymore. It feels, seriously, like I'm living among neo-Nazis.


Believe it or not, I welcome headlines like that. I've been of the opinion for a while now that if we put sanctions on other non-democratic countries, they should be put on us when we behave in a non-democratic way. I'm not against my country, but I do want to see Republicans get rattled when their authoritarian tendencies get out of control.

I did suggest in another thread (or maybe this one) that maybe we should just let the Republicans dig their own grave. Let them plow through all their scapegoat lies until it solves nothing and only the truth remains.

At this point I don’t see how the Republican party can remove itself from Trump. The close vote proves that. They are now merged and I fully expect them to embrace it. I’m tired of the Democrats devolving to the party of “winnable” candidates who don’t win and glacial pace incremental change. People’s lives aren’t going to improve. The steady decline of the middle class has been going on for decades and both parties are running out of excuses built on lies. I’d much rather have a far left (but not extreme left) party that runs on principles and maybe loses than a toothless moderate party that is nothing more than a speed bump to Trumpism.

I’d really like to know what the Democrats next big winning strategy is because this election, and not just on Trump, shows that they really have no clue what they are doing or working with. They’re bringing a knife to a tank battle. Seems the right has no problem supporting their radical candidates and 9 times out of 10 they don't have to whine about the left obstructing them because they just plow over the left.
 
Pardon me if I say that sounds hopelessly naive.* I think the Republican party has moved radically to the right, McConnell included. He may or may not have meant what he said about Hillary, but never forget he's the guy who held hundreds of court seats open in the eight years Obama was president. Then there's someone (I think it was Eric Cantor) saying that they would make sure that no legislation, nothing, that Obama wanted to do would get passed.

No offense taken... Here's why I think what I think now.

Biden is not Obama... nor the right's perception of Obama either, which also matters.

McConnell has more than made good on his desired legacy from standpoint of his base. He was ferocious about getting that third nomination to the high court secured and sworn in before the election.

Now I firmly believe he'd like to try to reclaim some rights to wear the senior statesman hat he used to be able to wear at least sometimes while Boehner was his counterpart in the House... in short before the main aim of the then still ascending House Freedom Caucus became not only to win in legislative duels across the main aisle but to paste label of Republican in Name Only on all the old guard.

That old guard in the Senate, the one that included guys like Lugar and McCain, was the one that used to reach across party lines and into the lower chamber and remind the GOP's anti-tax and budget fanatics in the House that we had a duty to meet financial obligations that were already appropriated... and so to avoid either default or shutting down the government and such antics. McConnell several times cooperated in preventing a no-win shutdown or default.

Boehner gave up and stood down; he could not control his caucuses. Ryan wasn't much better and even made a few enemies in his own house and over in the Senate just trying.

But see in the other house McConnell didn't have to give up, he was in the allegedly more deliberative chamber anyway, and at the very least it was the one that still had a pack of rules always meant for shoving into the wheels of an unruly House. What he did do was start playing more hardball across the aisle though. It's not quite the image he had preferred to maintain although it didn't hurt him during Obama's time in office, and most people realized Trump was clueless on legislative details... plus it's true it was always a GOP nightmare that Trump wasn't above just cutting a deal with Pelosi to look good if push came to shove on his approval ratings nationally. McConnell never wanted to get in the middle of one of those gigs and went to some lengths to work around Trump to avoid it.

But McConnell has an opportunity now to shift gears and see what he can get done with Biden "for America" that is more bipartisan but not "an Obama thing"... and he'll probably try to do exactly that.

Mitch McConnell is a world class cynic and pragmatist the likes of which some guy like Donald Trump could only hope to have the wit to emulate. He's actually able to come off like an American patriot while sticking it to his opposition... or at least carving some points off their take in a negotiation. He's been doing it for decades now and he's definitely part of why the whole spectrum of Democratic Party politics has been shoved rightward even as it has become a thing to call any Dem initiative "socialist".

But the thing is, see, Joe Biden is neither Barack Obama with all the partisan baggage that that name and McConnell's party together summon up, nor is Joe Biden an incompetent, selfish, ignorant thug like Donald Trump. McConnell sized Biden up a long time ago. Joe Biden is a former colleague and a peer, only now with a ton of respect from career service officials due to his having been Obama's veep, and he has way more of a following in the general electorate than McConnell can ever hope for. So I don't think we're gonna see gridlock in the 117th Congress at all. It won't be a progressive dream though, that's for sure.
 
I have just watched Mr Biden's remarks - intelligent, temperate, thoughtful, moderate, measured, mature, dignified and conciliatory. And articulate. And responsible.

And almost half of the population - knowing who he is, what he is, what he does and what he thinks - still voted for - still chose to cast a vote for - that other lunatic, that moral monster, that malignant narcissist?
 
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