The Trump Indictment Thread

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Answers like this are an indication you have no desire to understand. So here is a simple one. This is a Gallup Poll measuring people's satisfaction with their lives.

View attachment 28419

You can't see the dates on the image, but if you follow the link you can.

So when Obama took office, 59% of respondents were Very Satisfied. Depending on if you choose to end it at 2016 (53%) or 2017 (57%), people were still generally Very Satisfied. But in 2020, 65% of people were Very Satisfied. Now I realize COVID created the big dip from '20 to '21, but people's satisfaction has not gone up under Biden.

It really isn't complicated. People were generally more satisfied under Trump and they will vote that way.

I’m in the camp that believes we are dealing with late-stage capitalism and the quick decline of US hegemony. So nobody is going to have any long-term happiness or outlook anytime soon. Assuming our democracy continues, voters will just continue to thank or blame the new President entirely for about the first year and then fear what could happen in the next election. Meanwhile the rich will continue to get richer as late-stage capitalism sucks the rest of us dry and then it will move on to the next fertile territory, maybe China.

The only historical graphs we should be looking at for a reference are those related to the decline of the Roman and British empires. During the decline of the Roman empire when one of their territories needed help or was under threat they would get a response from Rome saying “Yeah, we no longer really do that now. Best of luck though!” Looks like a good percentage of our country wants to check off that box on the decline checklist when it comes to our allies. Never in history has a country isolationed themselves to or back to greatness.

 

[Eric]

You seem to be assuming that "dissatisfaction with Biden" = "a vote against Biden". How about, I'm unhappy with Biden, but better him than the devil?

There's a lot of things in life I'm not satisfied with, but that doesn't mean I immediately toss that thing that isn't perfect and go with a worse option.

This. The midterms and latest special election have shown they are on the losing end of this. What matters is who turns out election day.

 

[GermanSuplex]

The on thing that is clear is that a very high percentage of voters have concerns about Biden's age. I don't think those are going away unless Biden changes what he is doing.

Well, for some people, changing what he's doing could be as simple as aging backwards. That's not possible, so if his age and nothing else is the concern, then they ought to be worried about Trump too, who will be older than Biden at this point in a theoretical second term.

This is the problem with polls. What does "concerned" mean? And for what? I myself am concerned about his age, and would not lie on a poll. It means different things to different people. I can be concerned about someone's age but view them as currently more than capable. That said, anyone who's above 80, their age is a concern, whether they are president or driving to church. Being concerned that my elderly grandmother is driving is not the same as saying she's unfit.

You need a bigger breakdown. How many are concerned he's currently mentally incompetent, vs. how many just worried "he's old and could possibly die in office"? Big difference in concern, there.

If I were focusing on polls, it would only be the head to head matchups, which Trump is winning currently. That's important, I won't pretend it isn't, but they're hardly definitive, and its a long way until November.

 

[Alli]

Look, if no one here wants to even look into how the other side thinks, then you are doing yourselves a huge disservice.

Ya know, you said this a few pages back. That conversation didn’t go well for you. And every time we look into how the other side thinks, we see that there is no thinking going on, only conspiracy theories and rote party line quotes.

 

[GermanSuplex]

Cannon intentionally slow-walking the case for Trump. This is absurd. Trump's lawyers filed a 200-page motion with a bunch of asks. She demanded each ask be separated individually, and increased the page limit. Meaning the court will have to rule on each motion, and each motion could possibly be given a hearing. She's also refused to move her trial date.

She's probably going to force Smith to ask for her to be overruled or recused.

Aileen Cannon blocks Donald Trump lawyers' legal plan

The judge in Trump's classified documents case says he must submit ten new motions individually, potentially causing a delay.

www.newsweek.com

 

[Herdfan]

Trump has appealed the civil verdict in NY.

Donald Trump appeals $454 million judgment in New York civil fraud case

Donald Trump has appealed his $454 million New York civil fraud judgment, challenging a judge’s finding that he lied about his wealth as he grew the real estate empire that launched him to stardom and the presidency.

apnews.com

For some reason I was under the impression that he had to post bond to appeal, but that is not the case. By posting bond, he would be granted an automatic stay for the enforcement of the judgement. But the appeals court can also issue a stay in the case.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Trump has appealed the civil verdict in NY.

Donald Trump appeals $454 million judgment in New York civil fraud case

Donald Trump has appealed his $454 million New York civil fraud judgment, challenging a judge’s finding that he lied about his wealth as he grew the real estate empire that launched him to stardom and the presidency.

apnews.com

For some reason I was under the impression that he had to post bond to appeal, but that is not the case. By posting bond, he would be granted an automatic stay for the enforcement of the judgement. But the appeals court can also issue a stay in the case.

Alternatively, if he doesn’t have the money he could go to prison and get it reduced by $100 per day that he spends locked up. By my estimates that’s a little south of 12,500 years which is slightly under what black people got sentenced to for loitering in the South in the 1950’s. Coincidently that’s when a lot of MAGA thinks America was great.

 

[GermanSuplex]

If Mar-A-Lago was worth a quarter of what Trump says it is, he should be fine. Unfortunately, I doubt it’s between the 1.5 and 2 billion he claims. That’s billion, with a ‘b’. He may have well just said “a zillion”, at least people could then assume he was joking.

 

[Herdfan]

If Mar-A-Lago was worth a quarter of what Trump says it is, he should be fine. Unfortunately, I doubt it’s between the 1.5 and 2 billion he claims. That’s billion, with a ‘b’. He may have well just said “a zillion”, at least people could then assume he was joking.

Not sure where you got that he claimed that valuation.

“From 2011-2021, the Palm Beach County Assessor appraised the market value of Mar-a-Lago at between $18 million and $27.6 million,” Engoron wrote in his ruling.


The judge noted Trump valued Mar-a-Lago at between $426.5 million and $612 million, “an overvaluation of at least 2,300%, compared to the assessor’s appraisal.”

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/03/business/trump-fraud-judge-mar-a-lago/index.html

 

[Roller]

Not sure where you got that he claimed that valuation.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/03/business/trump-fraud-judge-mar-a-lago/index.html

Oh well, never mind. It's only 2,300 %.

 

[GermanSuplex]

Not sure where you got that he claimed that valuation.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/03/business/trump-fraud-judge-mar-a-lago/index.html

I was probably being generous by limiting it to 2 billion, Trump would probably say it’s worth twice that plus another billion.


"In an attempt to destroy my father and kick him out of New York, a Judge just ruled that Mar-a-Lago, in Palm Beach Florida, is only worth approximate [sic] '$18 Million dollars' ... Mar-a-Lago is speculated to be worth we'll [sic] over a billion dollars making it arguably the most valuable residential property in the country. It is all so corrupt and coordinated," Eric Trump posted to X, formerly Twitter.

Trump family defends Mar-a-Lago's value: "Could be worth 100 times that"

Mar-a-Lago was listed among the ruling on Tuesday that found Trump and his sons liable of fraud for overvaluing the ex-president's real estate properties.

www.newsweek.com

In one post on his social media platform on Monday, Feb. 19, Trump demanded in capital letters that "political prosecutions" "must stop immediately." In another missive, Trump wrote that his "financial statements were understated, not overstated. And he insisted that his Mar-a-Lago club was "worth 50 to 100 times" the $18 million arrived at by the New York state court.

"They didn't even include 'brand value,' known and accepted to be worth many billions of dollars," Trump complained.

Judge said Mar-a-Lago's valuation was 'fraudulent.' Trump still fuming over $355M hit

Donald Trump continued to fume Monday about the staggering financial penalty a New York judge imposed on him and his two sons on Friday.

www.palmbeachpost.com

"This highly partisan Democrat 'Judge' (All the Clubs, etc.) just ruled that Mar-a-Lago was WORTH just 18 Million Dollars when, in fact, it may be worth 100 times that amount," Trump wrote. In fact, the judge had cited Palm Beach County Property Appraiser valuations putting the property at between $18 million and $28 million, depending on the year, from 2011 to 2021.

Trump says Mar-a-Lago is worth $1.8 billion. Not long ago, his own company thought that was over $1.7 billion too high.

Trump might think Mar-a-Lago is worth $1.8 billion, but in 2020, his own company said the Palm Beach appraiser was right. That year, the county valued Mar-a-Lago at $27 million.

www.cbsnews.com

 

[Hrafn]

I was probably being generous by limiting it to 2 billion, Trump would probably say it’s worth twice that plus another billion.


"In an attempt to destroy my father and kick him out of New York, a Judge just ruled that Mar-a-Lago, in Palm Beach Florida, is only worth approximate [sic] '$18 Million dollars' ... Mar-a-Lago is speculated to be worth we'll [sic] over a billion dollars making it arguably the most valuable residential property in the country. It is all so corrupt and coordinated," Eric Trump posted to X, formerly Twitter.

Trump family defends Mar-a-Lago's value: "Could be worth 100 times that"

Mar-a-Lago was listed among the ruling on Tuesday that found Trump and his sons liable of fraud for overvaluing the ex-president's real estate properties.

www.newsweek.com

In one post on his social media platform on Monday, Feb. 19, Trump demanded in capital letters that "political prosecutions" "must stop immediately." In another missive, Trump wrote that his "financial statements were understated, not overstated. And he insisted that his Mar-a-Lago club was "worth 50 to 100 times" the $18 million arrived at by the New York state court.

"They didn't even include 'brand value,' known and accepted to be worth many billions of dollars," Trump complained.

Judge said Mar-a-Lago's valuation was 'fraudulent.' Trump still fuming over $355M hit

Donald Trump continued to fume Monday about the staggering financial penalty a New York judge imposed on him and his two sons on Friday.

www.palmbeachpost.com

"This highly partisan Democrat 'Judge' (All the Clubs, etc.) just ruled that Mar-a-Lago was WORTH just 18 Million Dollars when, in fact, it may be worth 100 times that amount," Trump wrote. In fact, the judge had cited Palm Beach County Property Appraiser valuations putting the property at between $18 million and $28 million, depending on the year, from 2011 to 2021.

Trump says Mar-a-Lago is worth $1.8 billion. Not long ago, his own company thought that was over $1.7 billion too high.

Trump might think Mar-a-Lago is worth $1.8 billion, but in 2020, his own company said the Palm Beach appraiser was right. That year, the county valued Mar-a-Lago at $27 million.

www.cbsnews.com

Yeah, no idea where the thought that he overvalues Mar-a-crapo from.

 

[Citysnaps]

In no way am I defending trump's numbers - they're no doubt bogus.

That said, with respect to property valuations... its good to keep in mind that there can be a large distance between a recent assessed valuation by a county property tax assessor, and the fair market value of a property, determined by recent sales of of similar properties, or determined by a qualified appraiser.

For example, in California, the assessed value of a property is limited by law to an increase of no more than 2% per year. While fair market values (determined by actual sales) can far exceed that number - say 2X over 5 years in some areas.

How that can be determined for Mar-a-Lago without similar comps, I have no idea.

I also have no idea how it works in Florida or if they have a small yearly percentage cap increase on assessed valuation.

 

[Alli]

Trump has appealed the civil verdict in NY.

Donald Trump appeals $454 million judgment in New York civil fraud case

Donald Trump has appealed his $454 million New York civil fraud judgment, challenging a judge’s finding that he lied about his wealth as he grew the real estate empire that launched him to stardom and the presidency.

apnews.com

For some reason I was under the impression that he had to post bond to appeal, but that is not the case. By posting bond, he would be granted an automatic stay for the enforcement of the judgement. But the appeals court can also issue a stay in the case.

My understanding was not that he had to post bail, but he had o pay the fines he was assessed in order to appeal.

 

[Cmaier]

My understanding was not that he had to post bail, but he had o pay the fines he was assessed in order to appeal.

Correct. In order to appeal, you have to post a bond for the amount of the fine/award. It sits, essentially, in escrow.

 

[Citysnaps]

Correct. In order to appeal, you have to post a bond for the amount of the fine/award. It sits, essentially, in escrow.

Any idea what a bond fee or percentage would be on a bond that large?

 

[Cmaier]

Any idea what a bond fee or percentage would be on a bond that large?

I don’t see anyone giving him a 10% bond, if that;s what you are asking. He’ll likely have to collataralize the whole thing, or pay a lot of cash himself. The fee would be a pretty large chunk - it’s like a loan. And probably he can’t use any banks chartered in NY state.

 

[Citysnaps]

I don’t see anyone giving him a 10% bond,

Meaning trump would be charged 10%+ of the bond put up as a fee?

Or, that the bond company would not likely be putting up 10% of the amount demanded by the state?

 

[Cmaier]

Meaning trump would be charged 10%+ of the bond put up as a fee?

Or, that the bond company would not likely be putting up 10% of the amount demanded by the state?

I mean he won‘t get a deal where he only has to put up 10%. (That is common in criminal contexts and some civil contexts, where the $$ is a lot lower).

Remember he was found to have faked the value of his assets - who is going to put 400 or 500 million dollars for him and take his word for what the collateral is worth? Maybe just Putin.

Also, the monitor appointed by the court to watch his company probably has to sign off on whatever scheme he’s got cooking.

 

[Citysnaps]

I mean he won‘t get a deal where he only has to put up 10%. (That is common in criminal contexts and some civil contexts, where the $$ is a lot lower).

Remember he was found to have faked the value of his assets - who is going to put 400 or 500 million dollars for him and take his word for what the collateral is worth? Maybe just Putin.

Also, the monitor appointed by the court to watch his company probably has to sign off on whatever scheme he’s got cooking.

Got it, thanx. So what does that mean for trump? NY seizes and immediately sells his NY assets (properties, jet, bank accounts, 10 year old unsold trump steaks in cold storage, etc)?