USA Election 2024

Eric said:
Hate to even share these polls because we need to prepare as if she's going to lose, but it's better news than watching the Trump news on every channel.

www.msnbc.com

New poll shows Harris with a lead greater than margin of error against Trump

A new ABC News/Ipsos poll gives Vice President Harris a lead against former President Trump among likely voters. MSNBC contributor Jeremy Peters and Republican strategist Lance Trover join Chris Jansing to share their political analysis.
www.msnbc.com www.msnbc.com
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I don’t know if this will make you feel better about sharing good poling but think of this way: Biden was up 7 by Election Day in the polls in aggregate, ended up winning by about 5 nationally, and by less than 50,000 votes across three states if I remember right. Now demographics and the closest states have changed and Democrats have outperformed polling in a number of recent elections, but generally polls have underestimated Trump’s support because people are (correctly) ashamed to admit to supporting him. Basically Harris being up by 6 means this could be incredibly close and some polls have her at less. The British expression from football (soccer) for how close it could be is “squeaky bum time” - and that’s not factoring in the Election Day and post-election chaos/shenanigans the Republicans appear to be preparing for.
 
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Eric said:
Hate to even share these polls because we need to prepare as if she's going to lose, but it's better news than watching the Trump news on every channel.

www.msnbc.com

New poll shows Harris with a lead greater than margin of error against Trump

A new ABC News/Ipsos poll gives Vice President Harris a lead against former President Trump among likely voters. MSNBC contributor Jeremy Peters and Republican strategist Lance Trover join Chris Jansing to share their political analysis.
www.msnbc.com www.msnbc.com
Click to expand...
I have little doubt she’ll win the popular vote. But thanks to the electoral college, this poll doesn’t mean much. I’ll get excited when Harris is ahead by more than the MOE in the swing states.
 
Oh and even if Harris wins, Tester in Montana is likely to lose and a Republican is likely to replace Manchin in WV. Control of the Senate will thus likely flip to the Republicans without another 2020 Georgia miracle (in fact unless the polls change dramatically a bigger one is needed) which will mean Harris will be President with no ability to pass meaningful legislation or make Senate-approved appointments (you can forget about Supreme Court reform or even filling any vacancies there if they do happen and Tuberville will likely intensify his sabotage of the US Military) even if Democrats retake the House (which they are far from guaranteed to do). This will cause political deadlock and legislative gridlock for which she as President will be blamed by the press and the populace and then even more control ceded to the Republicans in the midterms as a result. Which means likely impeachment in the two years running up to 2028 as political revenge for Trump's or at the very least hearings galore (which will start right away if the Republicans maintain control of the House) as an attempt to undercut her reelection bid in 4 years. And of course the greatest fear will be that the Republicans will find a smarter Trump to take the reins. In that case, Harris losing the election in 2028 despite winning the popular vote by a slim margin will mean that Project 2025 will simply be delayed until 2029 and there goes American Democracy. Now there's a great palliative for good polling numbers for Harris now. So a lot to fight for even if you think Harris herself will win.

Basically the crazies are unlikely to simply slink off and give up their control of the Republican party just because Trump loses again. It's even incorrect to say that they are separable even. Of course this is one of the direst possible scenarios (short of losing now) and many others could play out, but it is far from an unlikely one given the recent history of American electoral politics.

I know ... I'm a lot of fun. Sorry. :(
 
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deadcatting: deliberately making a shocking announcement to divert media attention away from problems or failures in other areas

Sound like a modern take on Napoleonic politics, i.e., starting a war to distract from bad domestic politics.
 
Yoused said:
Apparently, Boris Johnson, the bad-hair UK Tory, is the origin of the "deadcatting" strategy, which is disturbingly similar to what the Rs appear to be doing right now.
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KingOfPain said:
deadcatting: deliberately making a shocking announcement to divert media attention away from problems or failures in other areas

Sound like a modern take on Napoleonic politics, i.e., starting a war to distract from bad domestic politics.
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masto.ai

CandyK (@lovelylovely@masto.ai)

Attached: 1 image Pete Buttigieg will have a long career in politics.
masto.ai masto.ai

1726561263810.png
 
dada_dave said:
Oh and even if Harris wins, Tester in Montana is likely to lose and a Republican is likely to replace Manchin in WV. Control of the Senate will thus likely flip to the Republicans without another 2020 Georgia miracle (in fact unless the polls change dramatically a bigger one is needed) which will mean Harris will be President with no ability to pass meaningful legislation or make Senate-approved appointments (you can forget about Supreme Court reform or even filling any vacancies there if they do happen and Tuberville will likely intensify his sabotage of the US Military) even if Democrats retake the House (which they are far from guaranteed to do). This will cause political deadlock and legislative gridlock for which she as President will be blamed by the press and the populace and then even more control ceded to the Republicans in the midterms as a result. Which means likely impeachment in the two years running up to 2028 as political revenge for Trump's or at the very least hearings galore (which will start right away if the Republicans maintain control of the House) as an attempt to undercut her reelection bid in 4 years. And of course the greatest fear will be that the Republicans will find a smarter Trump to take the reins. In that case, Harris losing the election in 2028 despite winning the popular vote by a slim margin will mean that Project 2025 will simply be delayed until 2029 and there goes American Democracy. Now there's a great palliative for good polling numbers for Harris now. So a lot to fight for even if you think Harris herself will win.

Basically the crazies are unlikely to simply slink off and give up their control of the Republican party just because Trump loses again. It's even incorrect to say that they are separable even. Of course this is one of the direst possible scenarios (short of losing now) and many others could play out, but it is far from an unlikely one given the recent history of American electoral politics.

I know ... I'm a lot of fun. Sorry. :(
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I don't think we'll get meaningful change until we choose to start working together, Kamala mentioned working with Republicans and if she wins I hope she sticks to it. We need to see more olive branches and compromise as opposed to hyperpartisan bickering, I mean look how far that has gotten us.
 
Eric said:
I don't think we'll get meaningful change until we choose to start working together, Kamala mentioned working with Republicans and if she wins I hope she sticks to it. We need to see more olive branches and compromise as opposed to hyperpartisan bickering, I mean look how far that has gotten us.
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Biden said that too and they already tried to impeach him. Maybe in a couple of issues cooperation could be possible. But in general? Which Republicans will that be? That Republican Party is long gone and dead. So who? Romney is gone, McCain is dead. So taking over from McConnell who is the epitome of obstruction even before Trump, which Senator on the Republican side with a chance at the leadership would be able to compel them towards sanity? And if they keep the House? Well we’ve already seen what passes as House Republican leadership and it’s exactly what I described. As I said they tried to impeach Biden. Further, they learned from the Clinton hearings that they can damage a candidate long before they ever get nominated on whatever bullshit fishing expedition they concoct. Why would that change? They even shut down the government on Biden and indeed every government shutdown has been with Republicans in control of the House. They’ve learned to threaten the country to get what they want. So what olive branch do you offer them? What would satisfy them? The inherent proposition of the modern Republican Party is that government cannot function and it exists to prove that point. It takes two to make peace in war or politics so what do you give them?

The answer is nothing. Not because of hyper partisanship but because there’s literally nothing the Democrats can do here because this is not a two way street. The Democrats have no leverage. They have nothing the Republicans want. The only incentive the Republicans would have to cooperate is that they are defeated so resoundingly that they have no choice but to cooperate to get anything. But that doesn’t look like it’s going to happen and so why wouldn’t they simply continue to obstruct and get what they want which is what they’ve increasingly done for the last few decades?

It’s easy to say let’s all just get along and sure it’s be better for everyone. Just don’t be too disappointed if it doesn’t happen. I’d love to be wrong because I fear where this is heading otherwise. And again this isn’t the analysis of a liberal. This what the voices who have left the Republican Party are saying. These are the conservatives who left it.

Now if a legitimate second Conservative Party would come about with a real shot at winning elections … that’s another thing. But there hasn’t been a truly successful third party since the formation of the Republican Party in 1854. And yet honestly? That sounds more likely.
 
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The Head Liar, Projectionist, and Professional Bomb Thrower has no shame. Mr. Incinerary accuses Harris of hate. By all means she hates your plans, but accurately describing them is on you dip shit. MAGA wants Harris to take down her ads profiling Project 2025 because “talking about our plan endangers our candidate.” 🙄

“Trump accused his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, and President Joe Biden of taking "politics in our Country to a whole new level of Hatred."

www.nbcnews.com

Trump dispenses with unity and blames Democrats after apparent second assassination attempt

Trump ally Elon Musk also wondered in a since-deleted tweet why “no one is even trying to assassinate” Biden and Harris.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com
 
dada_dave said:
I don’t know if this will make you feel better about sharing good poling but think of this way: Biden was up 7 by Election Day in the polls in aggregate, ended up winning by about 5 nationally, and by less than 50,000 votes across three states if I remember right. Now demographics and the closest states have changed and Democrats have outperformed polling in a number of recent elections, but generally polls have underestimated Trump’s support because people are (correctly) ashamed to admit to supporting him. Basically Harris being up by 6 means this could be incredibly close and some polls have her at less. The British expression from football (soccer) for how close it could be is “squeaky bum time” - and that’s not factoring in the Election Day and post-election chaos/shenanigans the Republicans appear to be preparing for.
Click to expand...

I’m hoping it means the polling methods have improved and the numbers are actually closer to reality this time. Of course, the thing that sucks is that we won’t know until a few days or weeks after Election Day. But it’s best to assume Trump is underestimated in the polls. However, in 2016 he was the incumbent, it’s hard for me to believe his base has expanded since then. Demographic shifts may help as well. Who the hell knows, but I’d prefer a blowout. Trump massively over performed in the blue wall in 2016, maybe Harris will have a similar effect by picking off NC. It would be nice if she won decisively.

Biden won decisively too, but the margins in swing states shows how lopsided (and stupid) the EC can make things.
 
Eric said:
She could pull his diaper down and give him a hummer in the middle of 5th Ave while flipping Melania the bird and he would still gain 2 points in the polls. Couldn't agree more.


I think she's as much of an attention whore is she is of the sexual nature.
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And 74M people including evangicals voted for the self described sexual perp in 2020… 🥵
 
Yoused said:
I do not donate to political causes or candidates. However, Mom missed out on this one, and she was the feminist extraordinaire, so I will be sending money in her name. Symbolically. I am sending a money order for $47 and one for $19.20 – there should be a third one, but I cannot come up with the number. (Money orders so that they do not obtain my name or address.)
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I feel that it’s well worth it if my $100 investment/gamble to Harris saves the country and myself from more of the Giant Turd. 🤔
 
Yoused said:
You mean 2020?
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Yes, my bad.

He had high turnout that wasn’t reflected in the polls in 2020. But he didn’t really outperform, there was just higher turnout. He outperformed in 2016, even though he lost the popular vote. He picked off several blue wall states and turned swing states like Florida and Ohio red. He couldn’t repeat the magic in 2020 despite being an incumbent and it’s hard for me to see him doing it again, especially when Biden defeated him without nearly this kind of energy behind him.
 

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