USA Election 2024

Herdfan said:
Kind of my position since day 1.

If you can’t afford groceries, do you really care about the indictments?
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From CNBC last week:
  • The consumer price index rose 3% in June 2024 from a year earlier, a decline from 3.3% in May, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • The inflation rate has declined significantly from a 9.1% pandemic-era peak in 2022.
  • Households have seen relief for staples such as groceries and gasoline.
There's always room for improvement, but Republicans want people to think everything — crime, illegal border crossings, inflation — is far worse than it is. As for your point about people caring about things that will affect them, I agree. But how will they feel when reproductive care is no longer available, when their social security is cut, when climate change accelerates because regulations are reversed, when healthcare coverage is reduced?
 
Citysnaps said:
The 2016 election was not that long ago, and vividly remember George Stephanopoulos, ashen faced, barely being able to talk, breaking the news around 10pm on television that trump had won the presidential election.

Regarding the current election... trump is leading Biden in all seven swing states. I don't find that laughable at all.
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Trump is leading, yes amongst those who support him, but unless you can find evidence that he is now turning voters from blue to red you'll never convince anyone, no matter how desperate the attempt or wishful the thinking. However, if you have actual current data that shows this I'll be glad to look at it, otherwise it's just a matter of opinion.
 
Eric said:
Trump is leading, yes amongst those who support him, but unless you can find evidence that he is now turning voters from blue to red you'll never convince anyone, no matter how desperate the attempt or wishful the thinking. However, if you have actual current data that shows this I'll be glad to look at it, otherwise it's just a matter of opinion.
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Swing states. That's where many crossovers occur, and where the election will be decided. trump is currently leading in all seven of them.

"...how desperate the attempt or wishful the thinking."

Are put-downs like that really necessary?
 
Citysnaps said:
Swing states. That's where many crossovers occur, and where the election will be decided. trump is currently leading in all seven of them.

"...how desperate the attempt or wishful the thinking."

Are put-downs like that really necessary?
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Yes, we agree. Now show me how he's converting blue to red please, where is the data?

BTW you are so desperately trying to convince us that it gives the appearance of wishful thinking.
 
No need to get dems to vote for T, only to get them to stay home.
As to
Eric said:
current data that shows this
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I recall several reports from "usually reliable" sources (CNN, CBS, NYT, WaPo etc) about inroads T is making in the black and hispanic electorate - not huge, IMHO, but critical. It's kind of schizophrenic, considering the actual stuff T is likely to do if elected, but that's the power of today's propaganda apparatus...
 
cbum said:
No need to get dems to vote for T, only to get them to stay home.
As to

I recall several reports from "usually reliable" sources (CNN, CBS, NYT, WaPo etc) about inroads T is making in the black and hispanic electorate - not huge, IMHO, but critical. It's kind of schizophrenic, considering the actual stuff T is likely to do if elected, but that's the power of today's propaganda apparatus...
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This has been my point all along and is a far more likely scenario. Agreed that people on the fence can sway one way or the other, but those who are already in one camp or the other are far less likely to switch allegiance, leaving you with a small portion of undecideds who make or break an election and is why you see everyone courting these swing states.
 
Eric said:
Yes, we agree. Now show me how he's converting blue to red please, where is the data?

BTW you are so desperately trying to convince us that it gives the appearance of wishful thinking.
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Take a look at swing state data...

BTW you are so desperately trying to convince us that it gives the appearance of wishful thinking

Desperately trying? Can't we have a respectful conversation without making personal digs against me?
 
Alli said:
It’s too late. Primaries are long over - which is why we cannot replace the duly elected candidate. And you can vote for whomever you wish in the general.

They need to understand that not being able to afford groceries is no fault of the president. Blame should be laid heavily at the feet of the CEOs of corporations who are earning millions upon millions while their own employees can’t even afford their products. THAT is the message we need to get out.
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Exactly!
Herdfan said:
Kind of my position since day 1.

If you can’t afford groceries, do you really care about the indictments?
Click to expand...
Do you really think Trump will improve grocery prices? Not really looking for an answer, because Trump doesn't even know how groceries work, evidence would be during his presidency. From having to show an ID to buy groceries, to buying them without money and telling the local grocer you'll pay them back when you can.
 
Citysnaps said:
Take a look at swing state data...
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This is not data showing how parties are switching their allegiance, it's akin to "do your own research" ala antivaxxers. I was never a fan of the whole thing where you had to backup meritless claims with actual source data over at MR but there were times it really made sense.
 
I'll take this a step further and provide a snapshot of some data supporting how rarely voters actually switch parties from Pew Research - this is just to show how rare it is. If you want to make a case that swing voters on the fence may jump back and forth, that has merit, but to make the claim they're changing parties is factually incorrect.

Greenshot 2024-07-17 08.36.13.png
 
Alli said:
They need to understand that not being able to afford groceries is no fault of the president.
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I completely understand that. Same to a degree with gas prices.

But when people look at when they could afford food and gas prices were low, they remember it being when Trump was President. It is that simple.
 
Eric said:
I'll take this a step further and provide a snapshot of some data supporting how rarely voters actually switch parties from Pew Research - this is just to show how rare it is. If you want to make a case that swing voters on the fence may jump back and forth, that has merit, but to make the claim they're changing parties is factually incorrect.
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I never made the claim they're switching parties. They can simply choose to vote R because they feel they'll be better served at that point in time (whether true, or not). And then in the future will vote D for the same reason. That's what "swing" in swing states means.

In the General election you can vote for whoever you want, or write in someone's name.
 
Eric said:
It's been implied in nearly all of your posts on this discussion.
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Nope. Not implied at all. Once again... a voter doesn't need to change parties to vote for a candidate in another party. Swing states, where many elections are decided.

I guess it could be implied if someone believes it is necessary to change parties in order to vote for the other candidate.
 
More polling data.

www.newsweek.com

Donald Trump's Chances of Winning Election Are Declining

FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker shows Joe Biden has a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com
Donald Trump's chances of winning the November 2024 presidential election are declining, according to a new aggregation of polls.

FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker, which was originally published on July 8 and updated on July 16, shows Joe Biden with a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance.

According to the tracker, Biden is favored to win in 534 out of 1,000 of FiveThirtyEight's simulations of how the election could go, while Trump wins in 462. The poll also shows that the simulations indicate that Biden is on track for a three-point win.

The polling website said its forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign "fundamentals," such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency.

It comes after a Presidential Voting Intention poll of 3,601 swing state voters by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, found that Trump's margins over President Joe Biden have narrowed since June in two key swing states: Florida and North Carolina.
Click to expand...
 
As it relates to swing states, I always figured it was Independents who flipped it one way or the other. In some states, take CA or MS, there are enough Democrats and Republicans that they can overcome the Independent vote. But in other states where D/R registrations are close, the I's have the power.
 

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